Would we need a GWML high speed line?

[Sad Sprinter]

HS3?

if there’s another HSL to the north, it will be via Stansted, Cambridge to Yorkshire, and not via the Nottingham / Derby area.

What makes you chose that route?

 

[Energy]

Unlikely, given that the building of HS1 didn't lead to HS2 being seen in a favourable light.

HS1 and HS2 are pretty different lines, HS1 was originally privately funded for Eurostar and later Southeastern with services running over it priced at a premium. HS2 will be treated like any other piece of track with trains happening to go that way rather than charging a premium.

 

[Benjwri]

HS2 will be treated like any other piece of track with trains happening to go that way rather than charging a premium.

If you really think Avanti, or whoever are running services at that point, won’t charge a premium you’re kidding yourself. If not through a ‘NOT VIA HS2’ routeing, using VIA routes on the WCML to force cheaper tickets that way.

 

[Meerkat]

If you really think Avanti, or whoever are running services at that point, won’t charge a premium you’re kidding yourself. If not through a ‘NOT VIA HS2’ routeing, using VIA routes on the WCML to force cheaper tickets that way.

How will they fill the enormous new capacity if they charge a premium??
What might get stopped by Dft is long distance discount competition from LNWR and Chiltern, forcing them to concentrate on shorter trips.

 

[HSTEd]

If you really think Avanti, or whoever are running services at that point, won’t charge a premium you’re kidding yourself. If not through a ‘NOT VIA HS2’ routeing, using VIA routes on the WCML to force cheaper tickets that way.

Who will persuade the DfT to subsidise the "via WCML" tickets to make them cheaper?

Unlike South Eastern, WCML passenger operations consume substantial subsidies. This will be especially true when a huge portion of the traffic is taken away by HS2.

The capacity that the HS2 trains would be "competing" against is likely to simply be withdrawn instead.
If HS2 has competition like that, it is likely to be competing against other HS2 trains in the style of Ouigo.

 

[Energy]

If you really think Avanti, or whoever are running services at that point, won’t charge a premium you’re kidding yourself. If not through a ‘NOT VIA HS2’ routeing, using VIA routes on the WCML to force cheaper tickets that way.

What competition is there? The remaining Avanti WCML trains are for places not served by HS2 like North Wales, Milton Keynes, Rugby, Coventry and Wolverhampton (though this one you can change at Birmingham).

If HS2 has competition like that, it is likely to be competing against other HS2 trains in the style of Ouigo.

Originally HS2 was going to be full from the start, now with the eastern leg cancelled there is some spare capacity for Open Access.

 

[Benjwri]

Who will persuade the DfT to subsidise the "via WCML" tickets to make them cheaper?

I think the better question is who will persuade the DfT that they instead can’t make HS2 tickets more expensive to make some return on their very shiny new railway.

What competition is there? The remaining Avanti WCML trains are for places not served by HS2 like North Wales, Milton Keynes, Rugby, Coventry and Wolverhampton (though this one you can change at Birmingham).

You don’t need competition, you can still get to these places via the slower routes on those trains, even if they’re less frequent.

I’m suggesting that the fares for current routes will remain the same, while there will be a more expensive fare for HS2 introduced.

I find it highly unlikely they won’t charge more than us currently charged for HS2, and they will be unlikely just to increase all fares because that will open news stories about how much more expensive HS2 has made everyone’s journeys.

 

[Meerkat]

Originally HS2 was going to be full from the start, now with the eastern leg cancelled there is some spare capacity for Open Access.

Any chance the operator will run trains just to use up those spaces, as competition would cost them more than running fairly empty trains.
Or will the DfT protect those paths as being held for future extensions?

 

[HSTEd]

I think the better question is who will persuade the DfT that they instead can’t make HS2 tickets more expensive to make some return on their very shiny new railway.

They will make their return by slashing the operational subsidies to the classic railway.

Every person that uses the classic railway instead of HS2 loses the Treasury a pile of money.

"Continue haemmorhaging money on the classic railway so that HS2 can make marginally more money" is a terrible business strategy.

This is especially true given that HS2 will have piles of spare capacity, so the cheapest way for the Government to move almost anyone on the WMCL will involve HS2. Even if it has people take the people mover at Birmingham International. Indeed, it is likely that the cheapest way to move people from North-East destinations to London will involve HS2 even before HS2 reaches Manchester.

 

[Energy]

I think the better question is who will persuade the DfT that they instead can’t make HS2 tickets more expensive to make some return on their very shiny new railway.

The business case for HS2 is providing a lot of seats to Manchester, Birmingham etc. intercity trains which makes space on the classic lines for more trains to Rugby, Coventry etc.

You can't price HS2 high when it's the option you want people to take.

You don’t need competition, you can still get to these places via the slower routes on those trains, even if they’re less frequent.

Why would the DfT want you to go that way? It wants you on the fast trains to wherever you are going so more people from non-HS2 destinations can go on the classic WCML and so it can cut WCML subsidy. Moving people off the WCML will also make it more reliable.

Any chance the operator will run trains just to use up those spaces, as competition would cost them more than running fairly empty trains.
Or will the DfT protect those paths as being held for future extensions?

Any open access operator will need to prove to the ORR that that aren't just taking passengers away from existing HS2 trains.

 

[stuu]

I think the better question is who will persuade the DfT that they instead can’t make HS2 tickets more expensive to make some return on their very shiny new railway.

Because selling lots of tickets cheaply is going to provide a better return than selling some expensive ones, and think about the politics of it: empty trains and high ticket prices are going to be politically embarrassing so will be avoided

 

[The Ham]

If you really think Avanti, or whoever are running services at that point, won’t charge a premium you’re kidding yourself. If not through a ‘NOT VIA HS2’ routeing, using VIA routes on the WCML to force cheaper tickets that way.

HS2 trains are cited as needing to have 1,100 seats, that's about double the seats per driver as you'd average on the 390 fleet. As such you cost per seat post driver (assuming the same journey time, more on that later) would be less.

Given that staff costs are about 1/3 of a TOC's cost almost halving the power seat cost of your driver's cost is going to make it a lot easier to make a profit, even if you don't increase costs.

One of the other big factors (again about 1/3 of costs) is train lease costs. Those new 16 coach trains are going to cost more as you'll need more coaches, right?

Actually probably not, the current round trip time for a unit London to Manchester is 5 hours, at 3tph of 9+9+11 coach units requires 145 coaches.

3 hours of 3*16 coaches an hour is 144 coaches, so broadly the same (maybe slightly less depending on how many 11 coach sets are used).

However that reduced round trip time now means that 15 hour day reduces from 225 driver hours to 135 driver hours. As such, bit only does each driver have more passengers on the train that they are driving but easy shift they are likely to drive more services. Further reducing the cost per seat. The 40% reduction in driver hours could, if driver costs are 20% of all costs, that means that ticket prices can fall by 8% and still make the same profit if no extra people use the service.

As such, whilst costs like maintenance and energy costs would increase (both of which are only part of the final 1/3 of costs), these are more than absorbed by a significant fall in staff costs whilst leasing costs stay broadly flat. On a per train basis.

However as there's a doubling of passengers which can use each train the cost per seat halves, as such it's likely to be better to get more bums on seats than to sell the ticket prices high.

Therefore it's much more likely that a TOC would make more money by selling 600 tickets at £52 each way than 300 at £100 each way, as they have the capacity to fill more seats for that reduced price, whilst people are much more likely to use rail if it's that much cheaper (and likely quite a bit faster than driving, even if you get a train from MK to Euston to then get to Manchester rather than just driving the most direct route).

 

[HSTEd]

As such, whilst costs like maintenance and energy costs would increase (both of which are only part of the final 1/3 of costs), these are more than absorbed by a significant fall in staff costs whilst leasing costs stay broadly flat. On a per train basis.

A TGV Duplex (so fairly old now) at 320kph is supposed to use a similar amount of energy per seat-km at 320km/h as a Class 390 uses at 200km/h.

Tilting mechanisms are really really heavy.

Also the shorter journey will reduce the need for expensive catering staff etc etc etc.

 

[The Ham]

A TGV Duplex (so fairly old now) at 320kph is supposed to use a similar amount of energy per seat-km at 320km/h as a Class 390 uses at 200km/h.

Tilting mechanisms are really really heavy.

Also the shorter journey will reduce the need for expensive catering staff etc etc etc.

Thanks, in which case end get costs are unlikely to increase, if anything they could well fall too.

Which further highlights the point that just because it's new, shiny and goes fast that there's a need to charge extra for tickets if you could get more profit by charging less to more people.

 

[Frank Scully]

Noob here, be kind...

Is there any online resource that describes the blockers and possible solutions for increasing linespeed on the Plymouth-PZ section? What would be needed to get the journey down to 1hr? Fully appreciate all the well-trodden arguments about population size, urban distribution, hills, crappy old signalling yadda yadda yadda but am looking for a bit of positive discussion as to what improvements could made with a modest spend.

Similarly, what would be the cost/works required to bring Plymouth-Exeter down to 30mins?

 

[JonathanH]

Similarly, what would be the cost/works required to bring Plymouth-Exeter down to 30mins?

A brand new line all the way from Plymouth to Exeter on a new alignment.

No amount of speed improvements on the existing alignment could bring the time down to 30 minutes.

The same applies for bringing Plymouth to Penzance down to 1 hour.

 

[irish_rail]

A brand new line all the way from Plymouth to Exeter on a new alignment.

No amount of speed improvements on the existing alignment could bring the time down to 30 minutes.

The same applies for bringing Plymouth to Penzance down to 1 hour.

True. Realistically we should be looking at lineapeed improvements here and there to get the journey from Exeter to Plymouth closer to 45 minutes , but even this would be hell of a stretch. Cornwall I really can't see any advantage in speeding up too much more as the end of the line at Penzance isn't the ultimate destination for too many people. Plymouth to Exeter on the other hand benefits the large city of Plymouth but also all of Cornwall with quicker journey times to London. Thats where I'd focus the expenditure personally.

 

[Bald Rick]

What would be needed to get the journey down to 1hr?

I reckon Plymouth - Penzance is doable in 1h20. Albeit it means not stopping anywhere in between, which wouldn’t be very popular!

 

[stuu]

Noob here, be kind...

Is there any online resource that describes the blockers and possible solutions for increasing linespeed on the Plymouth-PZ section? What would be needed to get the journey down to 1hr? Fully appreciate all the well-trodden arguments about population size, urban distribution, hills, crappy old signalling yadda yadda yadda but am looking for a bit of positive discussion as to what improvements could made with a modest spend.

Similarly, what would be the cost/works required to bring Plymouth-Exeter down to 30mins?

Look at a large-scale map and check out the curve radii. Redruth to Truro is a good section to start with - the curves are around 600m radius, which is good for 60mph or thereabouts. That section crosses a number of viaducts, so the only solution would be an entirely new line. It's like that most of the way to Newton Abbott