Your suggestions for the next Southeastern franchise

[rebmcr]

Is there anything that would prevent TfL from getting a passport and bidding for the franchise?

 

[Bromley boy]

On some trains at Lewisham you get as many coming off as getting on (connecting with the DLR) so that dwell time is definitely needed!

It's also a horrendously difficult location from which to dispatch DOO trains, platforms 1 and 2 in particular due to their extreme curvature, which can cause issues.

 

[ComUtoR]

Indeed - it's in the Route Study from NR, with the possibility of building out onto Hungerford Bridge for 12 car platforms.

It will take years. My guess it would also mean the loss of platforms too. The new bottleneck through Ewer Street will be the next major issue to resolve.

Infrastructure and stock wise SE is buggered for the foreseeable future. We are basically at capacity already :/

 

[Ianno87]

It will take years. My guess it would also mean the loss of platforms too. The new bottleneck through Ewer Street will be the next major issue to resolve.

Infrastructure and stock wise SE is buggered for the foreseeable future. We are basically at capacity already :/

I doubt it would be considered a go-er if any capacity to turn back trains at Charing Cross was lost. If you did lose capacity, it would make resolution of the 2-track constraint at Ewer Street even more pointless than it already would be (resolving it does not create any extra capacity whatsover)

 

[Bald Rick]

Is there anything that would prevent TfL from getting a passport and bidding for the franchise?

It would be rather odd for TfL to bid for a franchise, when they already contract out their two main line operations to the private sector.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Is there anything that would prevent TfL from getting a passport and bidding for the franchise?

I can't really seeing TfL being very interested in running trains around Dover, Sittingbourne, Margate, etc. Just a teensy bit outside their area of responsibility and interest!

 

[HH]

I can't really seeing TfL being very interested in running trains around Dover, Sittingbourne, Margate, etc. Just a teensy bit outside their area of responsibility and interest!

Anyway they don't have a passport, so they can't.

 

[Domh245]

I can't really seeing TfL being very interested in running trains around Dover, Sittingbourne, Margate, etc. Just a teensy bit outside their area of responsibility and interest!

Perhaps run as a joint bid like the MTR/First bid for the South West franchise. Leave the other part to run the outer services and then TfL splash their branding over the metro services and make the usual Overground improvements. All a bit of a moot point though as I can't imagine that TfL would pass the financial stress test that bidders are subjected to with their current state.

 

[ScotGG]

London Reconnections have put their take on it online. Very good article.

http://www.londonreconnections.com/2017/kent-route-study-part-1-london-bridge-metro-services/

 

[ScotGG]

All consultation events cancelled yet the deadline for comments still remains at the end of May.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/south-eastern-franchise-public-consultation-events-cancelled

Hopefully the deadline is also delayed. Then the election changes ministers and something better comes along. Grayling is very unlikely to produce anything good for the area.

 

[Class 170101]

I think the Class 319 Flex if it works should be allowed a trial between Brighton / Hastings and Ashford.

Reference is made to High Speed services serving Hastings but I don't think the track layout at Ashford actually allows HS Services to reach this route.

 

[HH]

Is there anything that would prevent TfL from getting a passport and bidding for the franchise?

Too late anyway and TfL couldn't afford it currently, but I think that if they jumped through the appropriate hoops it could be done.

 

[infobleep]

All consultation events cancelled yet the deadline for comments still remains at the end of May.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/south-eastern-franchise-public-consultation-events-cancelled

Hopefully the deadline is also delayed. Then the election changes ministers and something better comes along. Grayling is very unlikely to produce anything good for the area.

Perhaps they didn't actually care about the consultation events but felt they had to do them to tick boxes. They use anything from the consultation responses that they already planned to do and ignore the rest.

Now maybe they can find a good excuse not to do them and avoid the tick box exercise they would otherwise have done. Or am I being to cynical here?

 

[JamesRowden]

I think the Class 319 Flex if it works should be allowed a trial between Brighton / Hastings and Ashford.

Reference is made to High Speed services serving Hastings but I don't think the track layout at Ashford actually allows HS Services to reach this route.

The Draft Kent Route Study Sectional Appendix suggests the option of creating a connection between HS1 and Ashford platform 2 to allow Class 802s to run between HS1 and Hastings. The connection at Ashford is estimated to cost 15-35M.

 

[Class 170101]

The Draft Kent Route Study Sectional Appendix suggests the option of creating a connection between HS1 and Ashford platform 2 to allow Class 802s to run between HS1 and Hastings. The connection at Ashford is estimated to cost 15-35M.

The cost will kill that one off then.

 

[JamesRowden]

The cost will kill that one off then.

I'd be interested to see your complete working for proving that the rail industry will favour the alternative and longer journey times option of adding capacity in the long term for more trains between Brighton/Sevenoaks and London (with that additional capacity being in addition to the extra capacity required for those sections if HS1 services run to Hastings/Bexhill).

 

[Class 170101]

Just can't see a set of points and the resignalling that goes with it to be worth £15m to £35m previously noted. I suspect better interchange facilities and connections at Ashford will be a cheaper option and the one gone for.

Whether its the right option is a different matter.

 

[WatcherZero]

South Eastern Franchise Prospectus now published

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/south-eastern-rail-franchise-competition-prospectus

Highlights:
No new infrastructure expected.
Catering for peak growth expected to come from investment in longer or higher capacity (more metro seating) rolling stock, they seem to be looking for ideas such as putting higher density seating on in peak then more comfortable stock in off peak as well as demand pricing to reduce peak demand.
Radical change in business plan wanted, work with Network Rail Partnership but want experience and new technology from outside the rail industry.
Open to purely private investment e.g. in platform lengthening, additional services and commercially funded (e.g. through additional retail, car parking) station facilities improvement
Focus on customer service, reducing disruption recovery times and increasing customer satisfaction as well as catering for growth.
They want more employee representation in decision making.
They are expecting modest growth in passenger numbers of 10% over the next 15 years.
Expect the current passenger consultations to come out in favour of a 15 min frequency Metro service and that recasting service patterns to reduce complexity and separate routes should occur over the course of the franchise and this might result in loss of frequency/choice of destinations for some stations.

 

[infobleep]

South Eastern Franchise Prospectus now published

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/south-eastern-rail-franchise-competition-prospectus

Highlights:
No new infrastructure expected.
Catering for peak growth expected to come from investment in longer or higher capacity (more metro seating) rolling stock, they seem to be looking for ideas such as putting higher density seating on in peak then more comfortable stock in off peak as well as demand pricing to reduce peak demand.
Radical change in business plan wanted, work with Network Rail Partnership but want experience and new technology from outside the rail industry.
Open to purely private investment e.g. in platform lengthening, additional services and commercially funded (e.g. through additional retail, car parking) station facilities improvement
Focus on customer service, reducing disruption recovery times and increasing customer satisfaction as well as catering for growth.
They want more employee representation in decision making.
They are expecting modest growth in passenger numbers of 10% over the next 15 years.
Expect the current passenger consultations to come out in favour of a 15 min frequency Metro service and that recasting service patterns to reduce complexity and separate routes should occur over the course of the franchise and this might result in loss of frequency/choice of destinations for some stations.

What is the existing employee representation like at Southeastern? How does it compare to other franchises?

Incidentally the Web Site says it was published on 28 March 2017.

 

[WatcherZero]

Yeah seems to have been snuck out two weeks after the consultation on the franchise started. Only noticed because they announced they had cancelled face to face public consultation meetings due to election purdah though the consultation itself will continue.

 

[infobleep]

Yeah seems to have been snuck out two weeks after the consultation on the franchise started.

Wonder why. Did someone forget to publish it or do they not want people to be consulated but they have to.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Nice catch on finding that

But...

South Eastern Franchise Prospectus now published

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/south-eastern-rail-franchise-competition-prospectus

Highlights:
No new infrastructure expected.
Catering for peak growth expected to come from investment in longer or higher capacity (more metro seating) rolling stock, they seem to be looking for ideas such as putting higher density seating on in peak then more comfortable stock in off peak as well as demand pricing to reduce peak demand.
Radical change in business plan wanted, work with Network Rail Partnership but want experience and new technology from outside the rail industry.
Open to purely private investment e.g. in platform lengthening, additional services and commercially funded (e.g. through additional retail, car parking) station facilities improvement
Focus on customer service, reducing disruption recovery times and increasing customer satisfaction as well as catering for growth.
They want more employee representation in decision making.
They are expecting modest growth in passenger numbers of 10% over the next 15 years.
Expect the current passenger consultations to come out in favour of a 15 min frequency Metro service and that recasting service patterns to reduce complexity and separate routes should occur over the course of the franchise and this might result in loss of frequency/choice of destinations for some stations.

Where does it say all that? I just had a skim through it and couldn't find anything about no infrastructure expected. On the 15 min frequency, the closest I could find was this on page 12:

We are asking the public whether they would
support more radical approaches that would
improve the service provided, including
options for:
• Moving to a regular 15-minute service on
Metro routes.
• Focussing services on a particular
London terminal.
These improvements would create a
simpler, faster, more frequent, and more
reliable timetable. The speeding up of longer
distance journeys by providing hourly fast
services is also under consideration.

That says they are consulting, but it doesn't say they are expecting any particular outcome from the consultation, which is what you seem to be saying.

On the expected demand, the relevant figures seem to be in Figure 4 on page 31. That claims 180M journeys in 2015-16, rising by between 18 and 25 million to 2028-29. That seems very low to me, but not quite as low as the 10% in 15 years you claimed. (Actually, is 10-14% in 13 years).

Have I missed something?

 

[WatcherZero]

Details are spread through in the body and in the Franchise Objectives table on page 15. No new infrastructure is Pg 22 Alliancing With Network Rail, 'with the completion of London Bridge no significant infrastructure projects are planned during the next franchise. This provides a period of stability for the alliance to form and mature.'

Projections for start of 2015 financial year to end 2029, 14 years, they are predicting;
Main line 50 +5-7, 10-14%
Metro 118 + 12-16, 8-10%
High Speed 13 +1-2, 7-15%
Overall 9.8%-13.8% with that heavily reliant on Main Line growth, metro the largest group is forecast below 10 and high speed the low number produces a high value range.

 

[ScotGG]

Less than 1% growth per annum for London metro routes seems bafflingly low. The past decade far outstrips it, future population increases outstrip it, let alone employment changes which continue to predict and plan for employment continuing to move from outer London to central London (and Canary Wharf) - all placing extra demand on those same routes.

Crossrail barely scraps into SE London compared to west and east London. Are they thinking that will take the vast majority of growth?

 

[king_walnut]

Focus on customer service, reducing disruption recovery times and increasing customer satisfaction as well as catering for growth.

DOO ruckus coming to Southeastern then?

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Has there been any consideration to the huge increase in passenger numbers with the projected opening of the London Paramount Theme Park in north Kent, in 2022?

Could it be time to consider double-decker trains again...? Oh of course, it would cost zillions to raise bridges etc...etc...

 

[ScotGG]

A 15 minute metro timetable? Doesn't every metro route already have at least that. Greenwich line has more - every 10 mins to Cannon St and 2 per hour to Charing Cross which could go to Thameslink. Surely not cutting remaining 6 an hour to 4?

 

[HH]

Less than 1% growth per annum for London metro routes seems bafflingly low. The past decade far outstrips it, future population increases outstrip it, let alone employment changes which continue to predict and plan for employment continuing to move from outer London to central London (and Canary Wharf) - all placing extra demand on those same routes.

Crossrail barely scraps into SE London compared to west and east London. Are they thinking that will take the vast majority of growth?

They may be thinking that following the London Bridge works and the planned Thameslink Timetable that they won't be able to run enough trains to take more.

 

[urpert]

A 15 minute metro timetable? Doesn't every metro route already have at least that. Greenwich line has more - every 10 mins to Cannon St and 2 per hour to Charing Cross which could go to Thameslink. Surely not cutting remaining 6 an hour to 4?

Pedant: every route apart from Bromley North branch (and the Catford Loop but that's firmly established with Thameslink now).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Has there been any consideration to the huge increase in passenger numbers with the projected opening of the London Paramount Theme Park in north Kent, in 2022?

Somehow I doubt it. There's also an issue that the accompanying public consultation turned out to have completely wrong (way too low) figures for the numbers of new houses planned for the Thamesmead and Bexley areas over the next few years. It's impossible to know if the same wrong figures were used in the metro route growth estimates, but my money is going to be on that they were, and those estimates are therefore not worth much.