East Midlands franchise prospectus

[Jozhua]

Speaking of wanting London services to stop more south of Leicester, EMT's Sunday services must be perfect for you! However, I found from Derby to London on a Sunday it's actually faster to take a train to Birmingham and then get on a train to London Euston than take EMT's direct to St Pancras...

(This was about a year or so ago however, so things may have changed, overall though I don't see adding more stops as being of much benefit to the route and getting people out of their cars and onto trains.)

 

[43074]

Just reading the various posts about the Southeastern Franchise and lack of progress. (Potentially another extension or returning to the operator of last resort). I must admit it is concerning about this franchise.

If this follows suit, when will we ever get movement on the following.

1. HST replacement. Private Eye (a quality railway journal) seems to think that the dithering is good as if no trains are ordered then if the line gets electrified then they could have EMUs rather than bi-modes. Irrespective dft specifying rolling stock is bad. Look at the exceptionally expensive IEP or the uncomfortable and unreliable class 700.

2. Timetables. Lincolnshire has had a poor timetable since privatisation with no change during the following years. Although some may argue hourly on some of the routes is too frequent. The specification in the franchise gave us real hope of a decent service. If EMT follows south eastern of not doing anything. Will we ever see improvement? (LNER seem to be pressing ahead so hope isn’t lost)

3. 15x replacement. Again. Leaving DFT on charge of this is dangerous but EMT is short of stock. Many services are 153 operated but need at least a 156 to prevent people getting left behind. If no franchise is awarded will this just stop?

Worrying times as EMT needs investment , but the continuation of the current franchise isn’t helping. Stagecoach are doing a reasonable job but time is running out on the rolling stock in particular.

I wouldn't be surprised if it gets a GWR style direct award, one which still delivers the improvements but with a continuation by Stagecoach, certainly I suspect there will be reluctance to postpone things like the electric services to Corby and new stock because of the issues with Mainline stock you mention. On the local side the 9 Anglia 156s are still available so they would seem a good stop gap in the interim until a longer term solution can be found.

 

[43096]

I wouldn't be surprised if it gets a GWR style direct award, one which still delivers the improvements but with a continuation by Stagecoach, certainly I suspect there will be reluctance to postpone things like the electric services to Corby and new stock because of the issues with Mainline stock you mention. On the local side the 9 Anglia 156s are still available so they would seem a good stop gap in the interim until a longer term solution can be found.

The transfer of the 156s would be very sensible, especially as they have already had PRM modifications.

 

[tbtc]

Just reading the various posts about the Southeastern Franchise and lack of progress. (Potentially another extension or returning to the operator of last resort). I must admit it is concerning about this franchise.

If this follows suit, when will we ever get movement on the following.

1. HST replacement. Private Eye (a quality railway journal) seems to think that the dithering is good as if no trains are ordered then if the line gets electrified then they could have EMUs rather than bi-modes. Irrespective dft specifying rolling stock is bad. Look at the exceptionally expensive IEP or the uncomfortable and unreliable class 700

I'm a Private Eye subscriber, love the magazine, but the rail articles can be a bit... simplistic... Dr B Ching's prejudices get in the way a bit.

The way I see it is that it's going to take a long time to get wires all the way to Nottingham/ Sheffield, so if we wait until ordering "pure" EMUs then that's going to mean five/ten years of delay before we can improve the environmental pollution. Can the HSTs soldier on for another decade? Is there enough slack in the system for them to all be properly overhauled like the ScotRail ones?

If we order bi-mode then we can remove fumes from St Pancras/ Luton/ Bedford the day they come into operation.

We can then cascade them to XC once the line is wired all the way to Nottingham/ Sheffield (or remove the diesel engines, maybe leave one to permit some form of hotel/limping function?).

The Intercity Express Project has given bi-mode trains a bad name but it just paints the DfT in a bad light for paying over the odds for a complicated procurement. The trains seem good enough for GWR's follow on order plus Hull Trains and TPE and the FirstGroup Open Access service - it's just the Government that's the problem.

802s will be proven technology by the time they would start on the East Midlands franchise so they should be pretty reliable from day one, not be much of a risk. We just need to get on and order them (or something broadly equivalent, if the franchise serving Derby must be seen to order Bombardier!).

The EMT franchise was meant to have finished four years ago, which is why Stagecoach haven't planned for HST replacement etc - the can has been kicked down the road without anyone taking long term decisions - another short extension would only be acceptable if someone orders replacement trains for the InterCity services (at least the rural DMUs can be solved a bit easier, given 230s or DMUs cascaded away from other TOCs).

 

[Jozhua]

(at least the rural DMUs can be solved a bit easier, given 230s or DMUs cascaded away from other TOCs).

I doubt the 230's would work for the Matlock - Newark route or the Derby - Crewe as they only have a 60mph top speed! I'm unfamiliar with rural line speeds further east though. I definitely think that cascaded 156's or 158's would be ideal, especially if given the relatively nice makeover EMT's current fleet have.

Definitely agree that 802's seem like a good fit for the franchise! Does the class 802 have the capability of running at 125mph on diesel mode? They're proven trains and already having been made for other franchises, there won't be the cost of developing/testing/machining an entirely new class of train and parts should be easier to come by 40 years down the line... the fact HST's have been so widespread must have helped in keeping them running for so long.

The current fleet of 222's is really good. Maybe the 5 carriage sets could be used for the Liverpool - Nottingham if they were willing to split the Norwich section into it's own service? Would free up some 158's as well, maybe for use on other routes desperately in need of better trains such as Derby-Crewe?

 

[Failed Unit]

The Lincolnshire lines are mainly 75mph. To be honest it is a different thread but I think a class 230 would be a step backwards. The 15x are the correct trains for EMT, just not enough of them.

Maybe once the Lincolnshire routes go hourly then more 153s would be fine (if they can make them comply with regulations).

I guess getting hold of the 185s and Anglia’s train will be enough. Although the 185s may be too heavy. It is fine saying put them on Nottingham- Liverpool but that will be a seating reduction.

 

[Class 170101]

I'm a Private Eye subscriber, love the magazine, but the rail articles can be a bit... simplistic... Dr B Ching's prejudices get in the way a bit.

The way I see it is that it's going to take a long time to get wires all the way to Nottingham/ Sheffield, so if we wait until ordering "pure" EMUs then that's going to mean five/ten years of delay before we can improve the environmental pollution. Can the HSTs soldier on for another decade? Is there enough slack in the system for them to all be properly overhauled like the ScotRail ones?

If we order bi-mode then we can remove fumes from St Pancras/ Luton/ Bedford the day they come into operation.

We can then cascade them to XC once the line is wired all the way to Nottingham/ Sheffield (or remove the diesel engines, maybe leave one to permit some form of hotel/limping function?).

The Intercity Express Project has given bi-mode trains a bad name but it just paints the DfT in a bad light for paying over the odds for a complicated procurement. The trains seem good enough for GWR's follow on order plus Hull Trains and TPE and the FirstGroup Open Access service - it's just the Government that's the problem.

802s will be proven technology by the time they would start on the East Midlands franchise so they should be pretty reliable from day one, not be much of a risk. We just need to get on and order them (or something broadly equivalent, if the franchise serving Derby must be seen to order Bombardier!).

The EMT franchise was meant to have finished four years ago, which is why Stagecoach haven't planned for HST replacement etc - the can has been kicked down the road without anyone taking long term decisions - another short extension would only be acceptable if someone orders replacement trains for the InterCity services (at least the rural DMUs can be solved a bit easier, given 230s or DMUs cascaded away from other TOCs).

Even if the wires had reached Nottingham and Sheffield the trains would still need to have Bi mode capability to run through to Lincoln between Nottingham and Chesterfield, Chesterfield to Sheffield via Barrow Hill, between Corby and Leicester and if retained services to Leeds and York / Scarborough as not all these routes will be wired anytime soon. EMT will be wanting to divert trains when the main routes are blocked so I cannot see them heading as a cascade to Cross Country, more likely they would have their own ordered instead unless they took on the EMTs 222s.

Definitely agree that 802's seem like a good fit for the franchise! Does the class 802 have the capability of running at 125mph on diesel mode? They're proven trains and already having been made for other franchises, there won't be the cost of developing/testing/machining an entirely new class of train and parts should be easier to come by 40 years down the line... the fact HST's have been so widespread must have helped in keeping them running for so long.

The current fleet of 222's is really good. Maybe the 5 carriage sets could be used for the Liverpool - Nottingham if they were willing to split the Norwich section into it's own service? Would free up some 158's as well, maybe for use on other routes desperately in need of better trains such as Derby-Crewe?

I'm not sure the Class 802s are as good as the HST at reaching 125mph. The Class 222s are more likely to end up at XC than on Nottingham to Liverpool I would have thought given their top speed and similarity to Class 220s (although they cannot work in multiple with them).

 

[edwin_m]

Government seems to be coming up to an immovable deadline of its own making (where have we heard that before?) on HST replacement. Even if they let the franchise tomorrow it's unlikely that the HSTs would be replaced in time for the accessibility deadline. Maybe bring in the LNER ones (are they accesibility compliant?) as a stopgap?

Lincolnshire ought to be able to justify hourly clockface service linking Lincoln to Peterborough, Grimsby, Sheffield, Newark and Nottingham. Perhaps also Doncaster but that's probably less important.

Some of these could be through-routed with each other or continue beyond those destinations, but it's probably more important to ensure good connections between them at Lincoln, with the wider network, and at Sleaford with the Nottingham-Skegness. However the economics of these services are marginal at best and some of the schedules are undemanding, so it might be better to soldier on with refurbished 15x rather than go for something newer but more expensive.

 

[tbtc]

I doubt the 230's would work for the Matlock - Newark route or the Derby - Crewe as they only have a 60mph top speed!

How far is Matlock - Newark? Sixty miles?

It takes the current DMUs over an hour and a half to complete the journey so having some fast accelerating 230 doesn't seem terrible.

Same with the (fifty?) miles from Crewe to Derby, which takes over an hour at the moment.

How much of the ex-Central Trains routes needs 75mph running (other than on the Norwich - Liverpool service)?

The current fleet of 222's is really good. Maybe the 5 carriage sets could be used for the Liverpool - Nottingham if they were willing to split the Norwich section into it's own service? Would free up some 158's as well, maybe for use on other routes desperately in need of better trains such as Derby-Crewe?

My understanding is that a five coach 222 would mean fewer seats than the four coach 158s currently used west of Nottingham

Even if the wires had reached Nottingham and Sheffield the trains would still need to have Bi mode capability to run through to Lincoln between Nottingham and Chesterfield, Chesterfield to Sheffield via Barrow Hill, between Corby and Leicester and if retained services to Leeds and York / Scarborough as not all these routes will be wired anytime soon

True - I can't see pure EMUs being ordered any time soon (much as Dr B Ching of Private Eye would welcome it).

 

[ChiefPlanner]

The OLE south of Bedford would need an upgrade for 125 mph running on the juice ?

 

[43096]

Government seems to be coming up to an immovable deadline of its own making (where have we heard that before?) on HST replacement. Even if they let the franchise tomorrow it's unlikely that the HSTs would be replaced in time for the accessibility deadline. Maybe bring in the LNER ones (are they accesibility compliant?) as a stopgap?

There is no chance of the EMT HST fleet either being replaced or being fully PRM modified by the deadline. The chance of that is long gone. The LNER fleet is not compliant either.

 

[43074]

How far is Matlock - Newark? Sixty miles?

It takes the current DMUs over an hour and a half to complete the journey so having some fast accelerating 230 doesn't seem terrible.

Same with the (fifty?) miles from Crewe to Derby, which takes over an hour at the moment.

How much of the ex-Central Trains routes needs 75mph running (other than on the Norwich - Liverpool service)?

To be honest I wouldn't want D-trains on any routes greater than about 30 miles - maybe using them on Nottingham to Mansfield/Worksop would work given it's operationally very self contained but there's quite a bit of interworking between the rest of the different local routes across the day. I don't think there need to be loads of D trains running around, a micro fleet of 5 or so 3-car versions on the Nottingham to Worksop line and the 9 Anglia 156s to bolster the existing 156 and 158 fleet would give 14 extra units to release all of the 153s, I think there were around 14 153 diagrams at one point including 2 or 3 pairs all day, so that would be fine.*

(* - There are another couple of pairs of 153s at the moment covering for the 156/158 accessibility modifications).

 

[Jozhua]

How far is Matlock - Newark? Sixty miles?

It takes the current DMUs over an hour and a half to complete the journey so having some fast accelerating 230 doesn't seem terrible.

Same with the (fifty?) miles from Crewe to Derby, which takes over an hour at the moment.

How much of the ex-Central Trains routes needs 75mph running (other than on the Norwich - Liverpool service)?

The section on the Matlock route between Ambergate and Nottingham needs 75mph running at least - the trains run down a two track section of the Midland Main Line until Long Eaton, where they split off and continue to be followed by the London and Birmingham services...

There are fairly long distances between stations, meaning that the trains currently easily reach 75mph.

There might be a couple of more rural routes with less running on other busy lines that the 230's could be useful for, maybe not on some of the routes with heavier mainline running. 43074's suggestion of the Nottingham to Worksop line seems quite sensible!

An idea might be to tag a few Class 195's onto the end of Northern's order and use them for the Norwich - Liverpool service (They can run at 100mph vs 90, same as the TPE 185's.) and then use the displaced 158's for other more local routes within the East Midlands. Maybe a 4/5 car 195 would be ideal if available...

 

[387star]

Why the fixation on 2020 for prm deadline

Just extend it as long as it happens can't see a year longer making a difference

Rather see capacity provided by all stock being utilised

 

[Jozhua]

Why the fixation on 2020 for prm deadline

Just extend it as long as it happens can't see a year longer making a difference

Rather see capacity provided by all stock being utilised

True, I doubt even with ordering new stock or transferring it that EMT will come close to reaching the 2020 prm deadline. If the DFT had outlined the need to replace the 153's in the franchise extensions it gave EMT then they may have had a chance to ditch the 153's. Late 2019 is too late to do anything about the prm deadline.

Oh and about those HST's...:/

Maybe whilst the fleet waits to be fully compliant, EMT can just ensure it informs passengers with limited mobility about whether the train they will get will be accessible and make sure to alternate between non accessible and accessible trains?

 

[Qwerty133]

True, I doubt even with ordering new stock or transferring it that EMT will come close to reaching the 2020 prm deadline. If the DFT had outlined the need to replace the 153's in the franchise extensions it gave EMT then they may have had a chance to ditch the 153's. Late 2019 is too late to do anything about the prm deadline.

Oh and about those HST's...:/

Maybe whilst the fleet waits to be fully compliant, EMT can just ensure it informs passengers with limited mobility about whether the train they will get will be accessible and make sure to alternate between non accessible and accessible trains?

It's not as simple as alternating between accessible and not accessible while some lines remain fully 153 operated and many lines have an odd number of units in use at any time. At the very least, however, they could swap the 2x153 diagrams with some 158s currently used to strengthen the Liverpool to Norwich between Liverpool and Nottingham (so that at least part of more services were at least partially accessible), and they may be able to reduce some of the quieter diagrams to 3 coaches to allow singular 153s to be swapped with 158s.

 

[bunnahabhain]

How much of the ex-Central Trains routes needs 75mph running (other than on the Norwich - Liverpool service)?

Pretty much all routes reach 75mph. Derby to Long Eaton you can reach 90mph with a 158, Grantham to Nottingham has stretches of 75mph and is signalling for 90mph for future proofing, Robin Hood Line has 75mph from Newstead to Linby and 70mph from Kirkby Lane End to Newstead and regularly reaches that. Lincoln admittedly is a leisurely trundle as far as Swinderby but then does get up to 75mph. Crewe is mostly 70mph outside of the LNW region and a bit faster Stoke to Crewe in places. Leicester route all depends on fast or slow lines but again, 75mph is about right here.

So the short answer I suppose is "quite a bit of it", but there is a lot of artificially slower PSR sections because of geographical factors, like the Skegness branch and its ridiculously high number of level crossings and the now terminally endangered extremely bouncy jointed track (RIP Sewstern Lane kick, you sent many a suitcase flying, may you forever make passengers feel like they've moved 6ft horizontally at 75mph).

 

[atraindriver]

Stagecoach are doing a reasonable job

Are they? Maybe if you only glance at the operation and don't look beyond the image.

I'd suggest that they're probably desperately hoping the franchise gets awarded before the chickens come home to roost. My experience was that [at least the ex-Central side of] EMT was never anything more than fresh paint on rotten wood, and I very much doubt that has changed since I left.

 

[atraindriver]

[Nottingham to] Lincoln admittedly is a leisurely trundle as far as Swinderby but then does get up to 75mph.

70, not 75, unless it's been recently increased.

 

[whhistle]

The 15x are the correct trains for EMT, just not enough of them.

Old units...
built around 40 years ago...
that feel like they haven't really changed with the times...
noisy, sometimes smelly...
with a ride quality that is fast becoming the pacer of the train world...

I wouldn't say "correct".
Any diesel unit pre 165 should be binned.
And by the time that's all done with, any diesel unit pre 170 should be binned too!

Although won't the 175s be looking for a home in the future?
Perhaps the 2-car (11 sets?) could operate on the Crewe line with the Perhaps the 3-car (16 sets?) could be used on the Norwich - not sure how many would be needed.

 

[Failed Unit]

Are they? Maybe if you only glance at the operation and don't look beyond the image.

I'd suggest that they're probably desperately hoping the franchise gets awarded before the chickens come home to roost. My experience was that [at least the ex-Central side of] EMT was never anything more than fresh paint on rotten wood, and I very much doubt that has changed since I left.

I would not disagree but I am comparing it to the bar CT set. They didn’t even paint the rotten wood. At least the trains are well turned out and the operation is more reliable. Even if it is still on the 1990s timetable and rolling stock.

 

[LowLevel]

The 230s would be a total pain in the backside. They're not compatible with anything else and the EM local side relies on flexible multi working. They'd rapidly be overcome on Skegness services in the summer. You couldn't send one to Norwich. The Lincolnshire Joint line trains spend most of their time above 70 mph.

The Welsh 158s with a heavy overhaul and rebuild would be a much better option with the Anglia 156s as a short term option.

Maybe rebuild some Welsh 150s if you want some proper commuter stock for the Robin Hood and Ivanhoe lines.

 

[bunnahabhain]

70, not 75, unless it's been recently increased.

Yep, 70, probably confused with thinking about the resignalling of Newark to Notts being fit for up to 75.

 

[class 9]

Why the fixation on 2020 for prm deadline

Just extend it as long as it happens can't see a year longer making a difference

Rather see capacity provided by all stock being utilised

Because this when the regulations come into force, it hasn't just been sprung on the TOCS, they have known about this for years, ample time to get things done.
It's a disgrace that it hasn't been done, but is symptomatic of the mess that the railway's have become at the hands of the government/DFT.

 

[Burgerstahl]

The TOC in this case, EMT, may have known about the impending regulations for years, but they were under the impression (confirmed in the Tory election manifesto) that the Midland Mainline was to be electrified. Their expectation was retirement of hst’s and a fleet of new electrics, or worst case 91’s and Mk4 from the ecml.

 

[atraindriver]

Their expectation was retirement of hst’s and a fleet of new electrics

More to the point, their expectation was a brand new franchise well before the 2020 implosion, which would have meant it was Somebody Else's Problem.

No TOC looks beyond the end of the franchise; it's not their job to do so. That's down to the DfT who, as we all know, do such an amazing job of it.

 

[InTheEastMids]

The OLE south of Bedford would need an upgrade for 125 mph running on the juice ?

This is being done. It's part of the MML Upgrade Plan Key Output 1a "MML bimode enabling".

I think the Private Eye piece up thread is a good example of counterfactual thinking, ie "what might have been", if different decisions had been taken.

Based on where we are in 2019, bimode is the way to go for the EMT London-Shef/Nottingham services,

The 15x are the correct trains for EMT, just not enough of them.

If that's true, it just shows contempt for the customer experience. The 158s are fine but the rest are a 1980s experience, and would need a complete rebuild including re-powering to bring them up to scratch

 

[DanDaDriver]

Old units...
built around 40 years ago...

Most of them are barely 30, and quite a few are less than that.

 

[vlad]

Same with the (fifty?) miles from Crewe to Derby, which takes over an hour at the moment.

You aren't giving us 230s on the Crewe to Derby line. The present 153s are bad enough!

(Furthermore, I'm not sure they'll cope at 60mph between Derby and North Stafford Jcn and I'm not sure about Stoke to Crewe.)

 

[atraindriver]

The 158s are fine

The 158s are not fine for anyone with luggage, for anyone with prams or for anyone with bikes, all of which were regularly seen on Lincolnshire local services when I worked them.

Trying to force those users into a 158 just because you prefer them is also showing contempt for the 'customer experience'*.

I'm not sure what units could provide a suitable 'experience' for all the differing passenger groups, mind, given that Lincolnshire's local services are a mix of inter-urban links, main-line/long-distance connectors, local commuter and local leisure use all at the same time.

* Is 'customer experience' a buzzphrase bingo win?