Scotrail HSTs - 4-5 years in

[hexagon789]

I'm not prepared to share the finer details. Other than 16 diagrams are being planned for by Train Planning.

No worries, be interesting to see what the 16th entails when the time comes.

 

[Narrowgauge725]

One thing for certain the livery is horrible when dirty, do they ever go through a wash?

 

[hexagon789]

One thing for certain the livery is horrible when dirty, do they ever go through a wash?

I think it's the vinyls that trap the dirt.

 

[fgwrich]

I think it's the vinyls that trap the dirt.

Possibly, but the new door recesses are the worst for this.

 

[hexagon789]

Possibly, but the new door recesses are the worst for this.

Carriage washers not getting them because they aren't flush?

 

[Davester50]

I think it's the vinyls that trap the dirt.

There's one (or more) carriages where the vinyl on the has been ripped off leaving a large blue undercoat patch.

 

[Flying Snail]

It's both, but it's the colour temperature that's most offensive.

The coaches can be switched between full/half lighting as @hexagon789 says above. They often seem to be left on full (I've wondered what would happen if I flipped the switch myself) but even on half, the light is still fairly horrible.


You can also see the difference between some of the refurbed vestibule areas vs. the seating areas. I think I took this photo from next to the area with the accessible toilet, which seems to have been fitted with more sensible lighting than that retained in the seating area. You can see here the stark difference in colour temperature, between the area near the camera, and the area beyond, by looking at the colour the white wall panels appear.

View attachment 155203

(By the way, is it the 1st class coaches that have different lighting, or is it the extra carriages they've added to make 5-car rakes?)

But the panels aren't white and that is a major part of the problem. First were allowed vomit their corporate pastel shades all over the interiors at the last refurb, even down to adding blue scale tint to the windows, so the whole coach has a horrible purple/blue effect which the cold lighting only enhances.

 

[Christmas]

I'm just wondering what the point of repairing the tree damaged power car, or reactivating the Slateford sets. Aslef's Scottish organiser has stated that the union and ScotRail are working towards retiring the HSTs in 2025, so it seems like more good money after bad. The same as fitting WSP, for one or two leaf fall seasons at best?

 

[hexagon789]

I'm just wondering what the point of repairing the tree damaged power car, or reactivating the Slateford sets. Aslef's Scottish organiser has stated that the union and ScotRail are working towards retiring the HSTs in 2025, so it seems like more good money after bad. The same as fitting WSP, for one or two leaf fall seasons at best?

Still 2030, likely later.

 

[Railperf]

Still 2030, likely later.

Are ScotRail contracted to keep them until 2030?

 

[Christmas]

Are ScotRail contracted to keep them until 2030?

I believe so but ASLEF still want rid by next year.

 

[43096]

Are ScotRail contracted to keep them until 2030?

Yes. For the umpteenth time, they are covered by a Section 54 agreement until 2030.

 

[hexagon789]

Are ScotRail contracted to keep them until 2030?

Yes, December 2030. The working group is presently looking at replacement with a new ordered or cascaded fleet by or around that point in agreement with ASLEF, the RMT, Transport Scotland and the other represented groups.

 

[chuff chuff]

I'm sure the owner would like their assets in full working order.

 

[kkong]

Yes, December 2030. The working group is presently looking at replacement with a new ordered or cascaded fleet by or around that point in agreement with ASLEF, the RMT, Transport Scotland and the other represented groups.

If this is the case, do you know what the "interim intercity fleet" which ScotRail refer to in their board minutes refers to?

I can't imagine that a replacement fleet 6 years in the future would be described as "interim".

 

[BlueLeanie]

I'm sure the owner would like their assets in full working order.

That will probably depend on who gets the order for replacement stock.

Surely to goodness by 2030 the entire line from Glasgow to Inverness via Aberdeen could have the knitting up?

 

[kkong]

Are ScotRail contracted to keep them until 2030?

Yes - confirmed by ScotRail in a response to an FoI request.

The HST fleet is leased until December 2030. A business case is currently being developed by the rail industry to recommend how the fleet should best be replaced when it is life expired.

Surely to goodness by 2030 the entire line from Glasgow to Inverness via Aberdeen could have the knitting up?

Wildly unrealistic - where have you been getting that idea?

 

[hexagon789]

If this is the case, do you know what the "interim intercity fleet" which ScotRail refer to in their board minutes refers to?

I can't imagine that a replacement fleet 6 years in the future would be described as "interim".

Three fleets have been discussed/explored to my knowledge.

 

[Railperf]

Three fleets have been discussed/explored to my knowledge.

Discussed on this thread, or within Scotrail? Is it realistic to think that they could replace the HST's with cascaded 222's bearing in mind the costs of cancelling the HST lease, cost of leasing the 222's, the costs of investing in staff training and equiping depots / stabling points with the facilities to maintain and service these? And does anyone believe fleet reliability would be perfect from day one?
Unless HST running costs and spars cost/ availability soar through the roof, it does not seem feasible. Better to think longer term. It's taken Scotrail 5 years to finally get the fleet running reliably.
How long will it take to procure a new fleet for 2030. There's only 6 years to go as it is. Building any new trains and introducing them is going to take time. The decisions on what to order need to be taken now.

 

[Killingworth]

222s are 20 years old. Refurbished they could all be in service elsewhere by end 2026 with further service life to the 2040s.

At current electification rates its hard to see wires all the way to Aberdeen before 2035, or even 2040!

Plenty of time to debate introduction of new bi-modes about 2040?

 

[hexagon789]

Discussed on this thread, or within Scotrail?

By the steering group consisting of ScotRail, Transport Scotland, ASLEF, the RMT etc formed to discuss the HST operations and replacement.

 

[chuff chuff]

Indications are something is lined up for 2025,quite what that something is no one is really saying.

 

[hexagon789]

Indications are something is lined up for 2025,quite what that something is no one is really saying.

I'm surprised the board agreed to return long-term out of service power cars to service, including heavy overhaul.

Fund improved WSP.

Fund deep cleaning for the buffet counters.

Fund deep cleaning of the stored TSL vehicles.

If they are going next year.

I'd also be very interested to know what the fleet lined up is, given the 3 discussed were ruled out on grounds of availability, capacity, suitability and cost of lease. The latter for the 222s was in particular very high.

 

[Killingworth]

I'm surprised the board agreed to return long-term out of service power cars to service, including heavy overhaul.

Fund improved WSP.

Fund deep cleaning for the buffet counters.

Fund deep cleaning of the stored TSL vehicles.

If they are going next year.

I'd also be very interested to know what the fleet lined up is, given the 3 discussed were ruled out on grounds of availability, capacity, suitability and cost of lease. The latter for the 222s was in particular very high.

Ah, but maybe it's now realised a good price can be got for them in working order in Nigeria or Mexico.

 

[chuff chuff]

Ah, but maybe it's now realised a good price can be got for them in working order in Nigeria or Mexico.

That was mentioned by someone that perhaps they have a value elsewhere.
Been in this industry long enough only to believe stuff when it's actually sat in front of you....even then.

 

[kkong]

I'm surprised the board agreed to return long-term out of service power cars to service, including heavy overhaul.

Fund improved WSP.

Fund deep cleaning for the buffet counters.

Fund deep cleaning of the stored TSL vehicles.

If they are going next year.

I'd also be very interested to know what the fleet lined up is, given the 3 discussed were ruled out on grounds of availability, capacity, suitability and cost of lease. The latter for the 222s was in particular very high.

The Scottish Rail Holdings board minutes make clear that improved performance of the HST fleet is critical to the overall fleet performance.

Improvement plans had been sent out to depots to achieve this.

Recruitment methods had been changed and were said to be contributing to an improvement in the fleet (could this possibly be read to mean: recruiting more people from outside the rail industry to bring in new thinking and attitudes?)

There was acknowledgement of the high number of vacancies in maintenance staffing and the reasons for this, but it was said that 110 extra roles had been filled by the end of 2023. However it would take until late 2025 / early 2026 until the issues were resolved.

Also, whenever the HSTs are returned to the lessor, they will have to be in the contractually agreed condition. I assume this would include them being - inter alia - fully functional and clean.

 

[Bill57p9]

I'd also be very interested to know what the fleet lined up is, given the 3 discussed were ruled out on grounds of availability, capacity, suitability and cost of lease. The latter for the 222s was in particular very high.

Feel free to educate me, as I don't work in the rail industry. However I do have a reasonable grasp of business economics.
An asset is only "worth" what someone is prepared to pay for it, whether to buy or lease. And any asset sat idle is depreciating, i.e. costing money. Faced with a choice of a lower lease income or no income, surely the stock owner would prefer some income, unless they are acting to protect the lease prices of other assets. Even then though, if supply exceeds demand (at a given price) market forces should lower the price until a new equilibrium is reached.
From ScotRail's perspective, the running (mainly maintenance but also fuel) costs of 22x stock would almost certainly be lower than HST, and therefore command a higher lease price.
Whilst the HST lease runs until 2030, negotiating an early exit (in light of the evident export market) would be standard business practice.

What am I missing?

 

[kkong]

What am I missing?

1. That other TOCs may (more likely, will) be interested in the 222s so there will be competition.

2. There may not be a mechanism in the contract with the ROSCO to negotiate an early exit to the HST lease.

3. Even if there is such a mechanism, if a Section 54 guarantee has been given to the ROSCO, it may not be in the ROSCO's financial interests to end the lease before the guarantee end date of December 2030.

Edit: The ScotRail Grant Agreement confirms the HSTs have Section 54 guarantees expiring in March 2030.



Image is an extract from the ScotRail Grant Agreement showing the lease and Section 54 guarantee end dates for the HSTs.

 

[Clansman]

Feel free to educate me, as I don't work in the rail industry. However I do have a reasonable grasp of business economics.
An asset is only "worth" what someone is prepared to pay for it, whether to buy or lease. And any asset sat idle is depreciating, i.e. costing money. Faced with a choice of a lower lease income or no income, surely the stock owner would prefer some income, unless they are acting to protect the lease prices of other assets. Even then though, if supply exceeds demand (at a given price) market forces should lower the price until a new equilibrium is reached.
From ScotRail's perspective, the running (mainly maintenance but also fuel) costs of 22x stock would almost certainly be lower than HST, and therefore command a higher lease price.
Whilst the HST lease runs until 2030, negotiating an early exit (in light of the evident export market) would be standard business practice.

What am I missing?

Form a supplier point of view, the bold - because not neccesarily.

The same reason why flats in Aberdeen sit empty at high rent rates for years (after the oil boom of decades gone by inflated house prices) or the 379s and 360s sat for so long in storage (and the ex-TPE Mk5s will continue to do so for some time)

Market forces are only as good as the parties within the market. And the nature of the rolling stock market tends to be inefficient at this as a race-to-the-bottom for an equilibrium price is not necessarily in their interests in the medium and long term despite the short term increase in income. Particularly with stock that has not reached it's shelf life. Stock that has reached its shelf life would command better prices, naturally - but once a contract is signed there is little incentive to terminate early from a supplier perspective.

You would be hard pushed to make a business case for the supplier to negotiate an early exit for the HSTs unless ScotRail pay the entire contract cost up front.

 

[John Bishop]

Discussed on this thread, or within Scotrail? Is it realistic to think that they could replace the HST's with cascaded 222's bearing in mind the costs of cancelling the HST lease, cost of leasing the 222's, the costs of investing in staff training and equiping depots / stabling points with the facilities to maintain and service these? And does anyone believe fleet reliability would be perfect from day one?
Unless HST running costs and spars cost/ availability soar through the roof, it does not seem feasible. Better to think longer term. It's taken Scotrail 5 years to finally get the fleet running reliably.
How long will it take to procure a new fleet for 2030. There's only 6 years to go as it is. Building any new trains and introducing them is going to take time. The decisions on what to order need to be taken now.

But it’s not is it! Still cancellations and short forms of 2 car 158s on IC services most days. Given the age of the fleet, it will never get to that stage, just not possible.