High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[The Decapod]

Looks like it could be the beginning of the end for HS2:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22664672

The report seems to question the affordability of both the upgrade of the WCML and HS2.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Looks like it could be the beginning of the end for HS2:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22664672

The report seems to question the affordability of both the upgrade of the WCML and HS2.

Perhaps now is the time to ask the Labour party for a comment on this report, asking what they would take from this report in they were to win the next General Election (noting that Universal Credit is another such scheme said to be in as much danger as the rail scheme), but I fear that their current stance of "fence-sitting" would be their usual tactic in not having a hard and fast policy.

Has that well-known "sage of transport matters", Maria Eagle, has ever given her "considered" opinion upon the matter in this report ?

 

[JohnB57]

Is "fence sitting" any more unacceptable than promising major projects that are in reality undeliverable, just for the sound bite value?

The Labour (or Tory, Liberal, UKIP) stance on HS2 will have zero nett influence on their performance at the next election, so in their position, would you posit an opinion or commit to a stance? Turkeys don't usually vote for Christmas.

 

[snowball]

Looks like it could be the beginning of the end for HS2:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22664672

The report seems to question the affordability of both the upgrade of the WCML and HS2.

What upgrade of the WCML?

I think it means the refranchising.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Is "fence sitting" any more unacceptable than promising major projects that are in reality undeliverable, just for the sound bite value?

I had assumed that the Labour Party had cornered the market in sound bites in advance of their "fence sitting" posture when questioned on them.

Maria Eagle is a noted "zen master" in sound bite pronouncements.

 

[JohnB57]

I had assumed that the Labour Party had cornered the market in sound bites in advance of their "fence sitting" posture when questioned on them.

Maria Eagle is a noted "zen master" in sound bite pronouncements.

There's nothing to choose between them, that's both the truth and the problem. Back in the good old days, you knew where you stood. Now, in the words of the great Don Henley, "there are no facts, there is no truth, just data to be manipulated".

I think maybe Labour are choosing to let many of these vanity projects wither on the vine naturally. Whether that's good politics or not, I can't decide.

Maybe when the crackling becomes louder than the song, it might be time to change the record, don't you think?

 

[jon0844]

HS2 was pushed forward and continued by the current Government. Yet you'd never believe it now from the way Labour tries to score points by attacking it from all angles.

If, after moaning that it is too costly and will do so much harm to local residents, it was axed then can I be first to call Labour then switching to say how terrible it is to have cancelled yet another project that would have boosted the economy, enabled more people to travel around, secure jobs during and after construction - and being yet another cut in favour of tax cuts on the rich etc?

 

[Stats]

Looks like it could be the beginning of the end for HS2:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22664672

The report seems to question the affordability of both the upgrade of the WCML and HS2.

No it doesn't. It says at 2012/13 Q2 there are significant risks of HS2 and the West Coast Refranchising Management Programme of not being delivered. In the case of HS2 this is to be expected for a major long term project in the early stages of it's life. And the problems of refranchising the WCML services by December 2012 are well documented.

Journalists have a habit of ignoring the caveats so let me provide them for you.

It is important to note that a’Red’ or’Amber/Red’rating doesnot mean a project will be or should be cancelled. It can be the case that, as part of the lifecycle, projects in earlier stages are more likely to be Amber/Red, moving towards Amber and Amber/Green as they remove risks and finalise design.

 

[chris eaglen]

There can be a number of programmes on the MPA sublists which are not optimum value for money. From the responses to phase 2 HS2 and phase 1 medium distance commuting appears to be the requirements into urban areas. Manchester, Brimingham and London and possibly Leeds. HS2 approached the intercity requirement and did not address commuter requirements. Double decking is possible with large tunnel boring machines but requires public subsidy. These same areas have also road traffic bottlenecks and a corridor approach with road with rail is possible again the the use of TBMs in some of the city approaches. HS2 has produced a very expensive approach to a different transport problem and could have combined both using the ECML for the longer distant sections but not with doubledeckers and double deckers in and out of the urban areas. Given a new analysis of Crossrail the use of double deckers on the Crossrail 2 may be wise, especially when TBM manufacturers will buy back TBMs currently. Reviewing what the UK needs most can change the scope of what HS2 did and if they work with Network Rail to review regional longer terms needs now the outcome can be later in time but better value for both roal and rail traveller of the future.

 

[edwin_m]

If HS2 was intended for long distance commuting then it would have to serve a lot more built-up areas, multiplying the objections hugely, or all stations would have to be rural park-and-ride with adverse effects on mode share, rural environment and carbon emissions. The intention is to free up more capacity on the existing routes for long distance commuting and other uses.

The ECML is pretty much full today with long distance trains so I don't see how it could take any more. Longer trains would require drastic rebuilding of most of the stations.

HS2 is being built to UIC gauge which can accommodate double deck trains as seen in France etc. Crossrail connects to conventional railways at either end on which it would be virtually impossible to run double deck trains without closing for a considerable period to rebuild all the platforms. After which these platforms would no longer be useable by other trains.

 

[HSTEd]

If HS2 was intended for long distance commuting then it would have to serve a lot more built-up areas, multiplying the objections hugely, or all stations would have to be rural park-and-ride with adverse effects on mode share, rural environment and carbon emissions. The intention is to free up more capacity on the existing routes for long distance commuting and other uses.

Birmingham International and Manchester Airports already have enormous road access infrastructures which would be able to absorb large park-and-ride flows without significant further damage to the rural environment. (In both cases total noise issues are probably negligible compared to all those jet engines at takeoff thrust or max reverse thrust).

Long distance commuting will happen regardless of what is "intended".

 

[Philip Elliott]

Birmingham International and Manchester Airports already have enormous road access infrastructures which would be able to absorb large park-and-ride flows without significant further damage to the rural environment. (In both cases total noise issues are probably negligible compared to all those jet engines at takeoff thrust or max reverse thrust).

Long distance commuting will happen regardless of what is "intended".

You've obviously not looked at the maps then! Dedicated junction on the M42, massive new car parks, several roads and widened and diverted.

HS2 - Britain's largest road building project

 

[HSTEd]

You've obviously not looked at the maps then! Dedicated junction on the M42, massive new car parks, several roads and widened and diverted.

HS2 - Britain's largest road building project

Well if you want to cut down on car park areas we could go for automated car parking systems or just twelve story monsters like the ones they have in Dallas. (I could see a case for 5-10,000 places.... each)

I don't really see what the problem is, without long distance commuting existing the local transport systems necessary to support it will not develop.
This short circuits that problem and allows us to work out exactly what supporting public transport to build near Birmingham and Manchester (and South Yorkshire although I don't expect as many services to stop there).

 

[The Planner]

You've obviously not looked at the maps then! Dedicated junction on the M42, massive new car parks, several roads and widened and diverted.

HS2 - Britain's largest road building project

Bugger all in the way of housing around there, and considering the NEC has 29000 car spaces now, I doubt many will notice any extra.

 

[RobShipway]

One thing for me that does not seem to be addressed is whether the monorail connecting train between Birmingham Airport to Birmingham International Station, would be extended if possible to the HS2 Birmingham Airport station when it is built?

I would also have the Midland Metro if possible extended out to HS2 Birmingham Airport and Birmingham International stations as well if possible.

 

[bangor-toad]

One thing for me that does not seem to be addressed is whether the monorail connecting train between Birmingham Airport to Birmingham International Station, would be extended if possible to the HS2 Birmingham Airport station when it is built?
.

Check out the official HS2 maps / diagrams on the government website:
Big (7Meg!) pdf

This shows a people mover link between the HS2 station and the NEC and the airport. I don't know if it's an extension of the existing shuttle link but I think that as it's quite some distance that it's a new system. The map shows a quite significant people mover depot so that only reinforces that it's going to be a new system.

I wonder if they'll be inspired by the Alton Towers monorail or that pod system at Heathrow T5?

Cheers,
Jason

 

[LE Greys]

Check out the official HS2 maps / diagrams on the government website:
Big (7Meg!) pdf

This shows a people mover link between the HS2 station and the NEC and the airport. I don't know if it's an extension of the existing shuttle link but I think that as it's quite some distance that it's a new system. The map shows a quite significant people mover depot so that only reinforces that it's going to be a new system.

I wonder if they'll be inspired by the Alton Towers monorail or that pod system at Heathrow T5?

Cheers,
Jason

It also might be a bit difficult to extend the current system because of its cable-hauled nature, although the old maglev might have been a lot easier. This appears to pass over the current station's western throat and run direct to the airport (Google Maps link, I'd say it will roughly follow Comet Road). I hope that there's a connection somewhere.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Well if you want to cut down on car park areas we could go for automated car parking systems or just twelve story monsters like the ones they have in Dallas. (I could see a case for 5-10,000 places.... each)

I don't really see what the problem is, without long distance commuting existing the local transport systems necessary to support it will not develop.
This short circuits that problem and allows us to work out exactly what supporting public transport to build near Birmingham and Manchester (and South Yorkshire although I don't expect as many services to stop there).

The problem is that it is an attempt to take out a stage in the operation, a rather inconvenient stage in fact. I'm not going to go into the good or ill of suburbanisation, something associated with long-distance commuting, but in this case the mechanism for it is decidedly lacking and far too car-dependent. New Street may be almost inadequate for a city the size of Birmingham, but at least it has a good mixture of Centro, Metro and bus services linking it to all parts of the city, plus the hourly train through to Wolverhampton. This is what makes it so good for long-distance commuting, its comparative ease of access. HS2 makes very little change to that, except that it adds an option, drive all the way to a part of the city with relatively-little housing and catch the train from there. I can't see many commuters putting up with a half-hour drive just to catch the train, especially if they pass several local stations on the way. Extending the Metro would be a considerable help, and finding some way to stop Centro services at Curzon Street would be even better. But this would be almost as expensive as building the Grand Central station they rejected, which would have solved all the connectivity problems.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Long distance commuting will happen regardless of what is "intended".

However, in order to do that you need to convince people that leaving the SE to live in the provinces is a good idea. And that will be much more difficult than building HS2.

 

[HSTEd]

However, in order to do that you need to convince people that leaving the SE to live in the provinces is a good idea. And that will be much more difficult than building HS2.

If my order-of-magnitude calculation on the cost of a round trip for London-Birmingham was in the right order of magnitude... scaling from the London Midland open-return to season ticket ratio.... that generates a HS2 London-Birmingham Int. season ticket at..... £680..... (I came up with a return figure of ~£15 for cost of HS2).

Even if we increase it to £1500 to account for it being peak time, that significantly reduces teh cost of long distance commuting.

How much more do you get for your money in the area around Birmingham compared to living in Greater London and commuting into zone one on the tube?

 

[RichmondCommu]

If my order-of-magnitude calculation on the cost of a round trip for London-Birmingham was in the right order of magnitude... scaling from the London Midland open-return to season ticket ratio.... that generates a HS2 London-Birmingham Int. season ticket at..... £680..... (I came up with a return figure of ~£15 for cost of HS2).

Even if we increase it to £1500 to account for it being peak time, that significantly reduces teh cost of long distance commuting.

How much more do you get for your money in the area around Birmingham compared to living in Greater London and commuting into zone one on the tube?

In all fairness, if you can afford an annual season ticket in the SE heading into central London, that kind of marginal cost saving will not be enough to encourage people to head north.

Not only that but without wishing to offend Brummies, life in the West Midlands doesn't compare favourably with what London has to offer. And that's before we focus on the weather! A walk along side the Thames that my family and I enjoyed tonight against a canal..... Let's face it for the majority it's a no brainer.

 

[HSTEd]

In all fairness, if you can afford an annual season ticket in the SE heading into central London, that kind of marginal cost saving will not be enough to encourage people to head north.

Not only that but without wishing to offend Brummies, life in the West Midlands doesn't compare favourably with what London has to offer. And that's before we focus on the weather! A walk along side the Thames that my family and I enjoyed tonight against a canal..... Let's face it for the majority it's a no brainer.

Not immediately, but this is a multi decade project.

I imagine people felt the same amount commuting to Windsor from say... Watford when the M25 opened.
You will tend to see a gradual drift north over decades.
And the lower house prices have to be a draw.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Not immediately, but this is a multi decade project.

I imagine people felt the same amount commuting to Windsor from say... Watford when the M25 opened.
You will tend to see a gradual drift north over decades.
And the lower house prices have to be a draw.

Yes, but Watford and Leighton Buzzard (two very random examples I agree!) are very different to travelling by HS2 to the West Midlands and then continuing your journey for half the amount of time again. I'm sorry but many people living in the SE will simply think that it's not worth it compared against what you lose.

Lower house prices don't count for much when you consider the overall quality of life. Heaven knows what we could buy in Sutton Coldfield if we sold our house here in Richmond but we would lose all the things that London has to offer. And again you have to consider the weather. I know that may seem to be very shallow but I'm not alone in thinking along these lines.

 

[mister-sparky]

Yes, but Watford and Leighton Buzzard (two very random examples I agree!) are very different to travelling by HS2 to the West Midlands and then continuing your journey for half the amount of time again. I'm sorry but many people living in the SE will simply think that it's not worth it compared against what you lose.

Lower house prices don't count for much when you consider the overall quality of life. Heaven knows what we could buy in Sutton Coldfield if we sold our house here in Richmond but we would lose all the things that London has to offer. And again you have to consider the weather. I know that may seem to be very shallow but I'm not alone in thinking along these lines.

If you own a large detached house in Richmond, then you could probably buy most of Sutton Coldfield if you sold up...

 

[RichmondCommu]

If you own a large detached house in Richmond, then you could probably buy most of Sutton Coldfield if you sold up...

Yes we could but we would lose all that we have in London, and you also have to factor in the additional travel time once you leave HS2. By the time HS2 opens my wife and I will have retired but its hard to see what we would gain.

And for the record I was born in Derby and my wife was born near Nelson in Lancashire. We are not southern softies and we are very proud of our roots but it would take a lot more than HS2 to move us back up north.

That said, I'm in agreement that the nation needs HS2 but I hope that the classic lines do not suffer as a result of its introduction.

 

[HSTEd]

Yes, but Watford and Leighton Buzzard (two very random examples I agree!) are very different to travelling by HS2 to the West Midlands and then continuing your journey for half the amount of time again. I'm sorry but many people living in the SE will simply think that it's not worth it compared against what you lose.

People drive into Grantham and then make a 74 minute train journey into central London already (they can drive for 20 minutes or more to reach Grantham station....)
There are also significant numbers of people who commute in from newark and face an even longer journey.
People have repeatedly demonstrated that they are willing to commute large distances, indeed since there is a major Rush hour all the way to Birmingham on ICWC it would appear that significant numbers of people already make that commute.

Lower house prices don't count for much when you consider the overall quality of life. Heaven knows what we could buy in Sutton Coldfield if we sold our house here in Richmond but we would lose all the things that London has to offer. And again you have to consider the weather. I know that may seem to be very shallow but I'm not alone in thinking along these lines.

Sutton Coldfield is not the only place you will be able to commute to.... the same sort of travel times that see people commuting via Grantham and KGX would be able to get people into places like Tatton.... which as it is the constituency of the Right Honourable George Osbourne is not somwhere I would consider "lower class". (In fact less, since the 1hr08 travel time to central Manchester after phase two implies something around the 1hr03-04 mark for the Airport).

And the weather can be just as terrible in London as it is in the vicinity of Manchester... and Manchester has acquired its own very very posh areas with the absurd amounts of money pouring out of the two chief football clubs.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If you own a large detached house in Richmond, then you could probably buy most of Sutton Coldfield if you sold up...

May I join this rather interesting debate to kindly remind some of our Home Counties forum members that HS2 will serve (but a respectable distance away as not to frighten the more refined populace) our local area of Cheshire East known as "The Golden Triangle" comprising of Alderley Edge, Wilmslow and my own settlement of Prestbury. Why not research this area and you will find that it can match the Home Counties for general ambiance and property prices, Even our local three National Trust properties of Tatton Park, Lyme Park and Dunham Massey all have great houses, extensive grounds and a herd of deer.

We will most probably take the barouche box to Manchester Airport HS2 station when the services run (if I live long enough to see this).....

 

[dangie]

Haven't read all the posts on this topic so apologies if this has been raised.

Where I live (Rugeley) around all the roads and country lanes there are 'STOP HS2' signs. Also with dates of meetings in local village halls.

Simple question. Who exactly is paying for all this. It defiantly isn't coming cheap!

 

[LE Greys]

The vision of a new Metroland setting up around Birmingham Airport is a highly amusing one, but it seems a bit badly positioned. For a start, the expensive parts of anywhere tend to be west of the nearest big settlement, because the prevailing wind blows west to east (although Stevenage has an industrial estate on the upwind side :roll: ). That probably applies a lot less these days, industry tends to use far fewer big, smoky chimneys, but there is still all the vehicle exhaust to deal with.

 

[HSTEd]

There is vehicle exhaust all over the place these days, industrial estate exhaust is not significantly more noxious than the exhaust from the lighter, but far more numerous, personal and light commercial vehicles in other areas of the town.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Haven't read all the posts on this topic so apologies if this has been raised.

Where I live (Rugeley) around all the roads and country lanes there are 'STOP HS2' signs. Also with dates of meetings in local village halls.

Simple question. Who exactly is paying for all this. It defiantly isn't coming cheap!

They are paying for it. OR in some cases local councils are paying for it... Don't even ask. Can of worms doesn't cover it.