UK Storms

[michael769]

The only advice that can be given is to keep an eye on the ToC websites for reduced timetables or cancellations. These may be issued at short notice so do check before you travel.

 

[Twoonthebuzzer]

Key concern remains the overlapping zone walloped by inital SWrly phase & likely again by later W'rly squeeze. Phasing of these uncertain. For descriptive sake, this zone - albeit roughly & uncertainly delineated - currently encompasses S'rn parts W Country (eg Dorset; S & E Somerset) & adjacent areas. Evaluation of current warnings actively ongoing.

Why might this storm be worse than a usual Autumn Storm? STING JETS

There is the possibility for winds to reach severe gale/Storm force over land in a swathe to the south of the Low centre. This may happen over the UK on Monday
After the 1987 storm, forecasting came on leaps and bounds, mainly due to Satellite data and one area of discovery was Sting Jets.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1987-great-storm/sting-jet

There is good agreement now from GFS, UKMO and ECMWF on the track and depth of Monday’s low, though there is still some slight differences on timings of its arrival.

Upper-level trough and fast jet stream moving ESE out of NE Canada engaging frontal zone over N Atlantic, which divides warm moist air to the south brought by ex Tropical Storm Lorenzo. A frontal wave develops this evening as a result, with a shallow low forming in the wave under the right entrance of a strong 180mph+ westerly jet streak. GFS slp/jet chart for 18z this evening shows the ‘embryonic’ low in the right entrance of the jet streak


Air approaching (entering) this region of maximum upper winds is accelerating. This acceleration results in divergence in the upper-level winds in the right half of the entrance region of the jet, resulting in upward motion of air creating winds to converge at the surface and allowing pressure to lower at the surface.

The low then deepens quickly over the following 36 hrs of Sunday and Monday morning, the low deepening rapidly Monday morning (pressure falling from circa 974 to 967 mb 00z to 06z) as it comes under the left exit of the next jet streak propagating downstream aloft – where even stronger divergence of air aloft and convergence at the surface will take place.

00z GFS was slower with arrival of low across Wales than 00z ECMWF Monday morning, however, the 06z GFS operational seems to have caught up, so the low’s centre is near/over SW Wales at 6am Sunday morning (GFS-972mb and ECM-967mb), the low then tracks NE to be centred over northern England at 9am before exiting to have a centre just offshore over the North Sea by midday. ECMWF deepest at 12z with 962mb, 06z GFS with 969mb. 00z UKMO GM somewhat faster with the low, by 6 hrs but with a very similar track.

So still looks like the strongest winds will be across south Wales, southwest and southeast England, The Midlands, Lincs and East Anglia – where we are looking at peak gusts of 70-80mph inland, perhaps 80-90mph along southern coasts – especially across the far southwest. Quite a noticeable squeeze in the isobars towards The Wash and Lincs as the low exits, so some very strong northwest wind gusts here early afternoon.

Also, GFS shows 925mb winds of 80knt+ across S England/E Anglia, so potential for these strong winds to lower to the surface as a sting jet on south side of low near back-bent occlusion and cloud head, and also near coastal areas where boundary (surface) layer will likely be unstable with strong winds brought to the surface in downdrafts in any convective cells.

Some parts of England and Wales could also see 30mm+ of rainfall, so flooding will also be an issue.

 

[Cheds]

Cheds and Dad are booked from Newcastle to London at 1128 on Monday, which might not turn out to be the best timing ever!

Any EastCoast specialists who could provide info nearer the time or Monday morning will be thanked...

And take care all those out and about if this is really difficult.

 

[chuckles1066]

It's a fair and safe assumption that if there's any more than a thimblefull of rain, all the services in and around Patchway / Filton will be messed up.

The official line is that a landslide at Chipping Sodbury has caused all manner of mayhem, you see.

 

[ushawk]

Cheds and Dad are booked from Newcastle to London at 1128 on Monday, which might not turn out to be the best timing ever!

Any EastCoast specialists who could provide info nearer the time or Monday morning will be thanked...

And take care all those out and about if this is really difficult.

Speed restrictions, probably to prevent the awful knitting on the ECML from coming down, have been put in place for Monday and a revised East Coast service will run.

Timetable is on NRE.

The first of many trees has now came down too, service suspended Havant - Haslemere due to a tree on the line at Liss.

Might have to wheel out the announcement "This service is being delayed due to leaves on the line.........unfortunately they are still attached to the tree".

 

[jnjkerbin]

Cheds and Dad are booked from Newcastle to London at 1128 on Monday, which might not turn out to be the best timing ever!

Any EastCoast specialists who could provide info nearer the time or Monday morning will be thanked...

And take care all those out and about if this is really difficult.

EC timetable for Monday is here

 

[BradNufc]

and why oh why does this storm have to hit while im travelling up the whole country!!

 

[Rapidash]

Just starting to hit South Devon, Rains not too heavy at the mo, but the gusts are pretty frequent. Wouldn't be surprised if there's some slippage at Dawlish later.

 

[Temple Meads]

Just starting to hit South Devon, Rains not too heavy at the mo, but the gusts are pretty frequent. Wouldn't be surprised if there's some slippage at Dawlish later.

Wind is supposed to drop slightly this evening, then build up to the main event through tonight and tomorrow.

 

[CallySleeper]

EC timetable for Monday is here

An East Coast pdf timetable? With headcodes?!

 

[motorman]

According to local travel news in the Solent area SWT are planning a reduced service on Monday morning.

Going back to the 'Burns Day' storm, one of the Portsmouth - Fishbourne car ferries (St Catherine) on the Isle of Wight service took nine hours to reach Portsmouth from Fishbourne. Most of the time was spent sheltering alongside the company's pontoon in Portsmouth Harbour. When it was thought safe to proceed to the berth at Gunwhaft a wind gust caught "St Catherine" pushing it into the quayside and putting a hole in the vessels side.

It took several days to effect repairs leaving a one boat service in the hands of the then newest vessel on the route "St Cecilia". The third vessel "St Helen" was strorm bound at Dover returning from refit at Tilbury.

The fun did not end there as the "Caedmon" on the Lymington - Yarmouth route could not berth at Yarmouth. An attempt was made to go to Cowes, also unsuccessful before finally making it to Portsmouth some seven hours later. A mainland to mainland crossing!

It would be interesting to see how some of the newer and larger ferries would cope today. Wait and see!!!

The 1987 storm being overnight did not cause so much disruption to the cross Solent ferry services, other than the destruction of Shanklin Pier. I remember (stupidly!) standing outside watching sparking from overhead power lines until the inevitabale power failure with the odd roof tile falling of our roof.

 

[starrymarkb]

Whilst not usual it is also not out of the ordinary for this time of year. Although i do appreciate that being in the south it will lead to vast wailing and gnashing of teeth

Not in the SW, might be some NR wailing around Dawlish depending on how big the waves are but the SW is pretty used to weather (we get most of it first!) Now the SE will panic

 

[DaveNewcastle]

An East Coast pdf timetable? With headcodes?!

Yes, but not the usual headcodes (with 1S for services to Edinburgh, 1D to Leeds, etc.). That timetable has added an hour to everything between York and London, notably including the 11:00 departure of the northbound Chieftan - an hour ahead of its usual 12:00 noon departure.

 

[A-driver]

Being strongly suggested at work the Doncaster-London will see restrictions of 50-60mph for all electric traction. Was suggested by a DM who has been in meetings about it.

 

[Cliveblackpool]

Traveled past Dawlish on the down line during a storm in the late 60's. A large wave hit the seawall and landed on the train with a fair thud on the roof! Spectacular.
No problem back then!

 

[plastictaffy]

Glad I'm off from 1400 Sunday afternoon, for a week and a half!!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Any advice for Monday because if its this bad, I am travelling from Didcot Parkway to Newcastle via Birmingham New Steet and Doncaster, what problems will affect me??

Well, a good chunk of that journey is under the wires, and, as has been mentioned somewhere else, the overhead 'knitting' is pretty bad on the ECML, and not much better on the WCML!! Could be touch and go!! Best of luck with that.

 

[BradNufc]

Glad I'm off from 1400 Sunday afternoon, for a week and a half!!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Well, a good chunk of that journey is under the wires, and, as has been mentioned somewhere else, the overhead 'knitting' is pretty bad on the ECML, and not much better on the WCML!! Could be touch and go!! Best of luck with that.

Ohhh its gonna be a tough day then, do you know how long the speed restrictions would affect me and I know the last time I travelled this route was when overhead wires went down between Peterbough and Doncaster meaning no east coast services between Newcastle and the south meaning a 4 coach train had 3 loads of 10 car carriages on it and on a packed train until Sheffield. Btw im going via XC!!

 

[ushawk]

Various TOCs in the South are/may be running a revised timetable on Monday.

 

[starrymarkb]

Wasn't it a few years ago that UK railways had a blanket 50mph speed restriction due to high winds which was thought to be overcautious by many. The same storm caused DB to suspend operations with all trains held at the next available station

 

[Darren R]

Various TOCs in the South are/may be running a revised timetable on Monday.

Indeed - National Rail Enquiries already warning passengers that East Coast are running an ammended timetable (as linked above), that C2C are "expected" to run an ammended timetable, with trains running at reduced speeds and no Laindon shuttle, and Southeastern "may" run an ammended timetable with the possibility of trains starting later than normal Monday morning. SWT, GatEx, Southern, GAnglia, StanEx and FCC all saying they "may" run to an ammended timetable.

Couldn't help a wry smile at East Coast announcing an ammended timetable already, but I rather suspect this is gonna be another of those damned if they do and damned if they don't situations for TOCs. Ignoring all the innevitable idiotic headlines, wouldn't it be better for pax if TOCs announce the ammended timetables before Monday morning?

 

[Goatboy]

It seems odd that they've got revised timetables given that nobody knows what might happen and more importantly where it might happen.

 

[Cheds]

Thanks to jnjkerbin and ushawk for east coast timetable changes, appreciated very much.

What happens if the train for which someone has an advance ticket is no longer timetabled? Reasonableness all round or are there rules?

 

[jon0844]

It seems odd that they've got revised timetables given that nobody knows what might happen and more importantly where it might happen.

Better to be safe than sorry, and if the weather is really bad (and only predicted for one day) then there's a good chance a fair few people will opt not to travel.

Thanks to jnjkerbin and ushawk for east coast timetable changes, appreciated very much.

What happens if the train for which someone has an advance ticket is no longer timetabled? Reasonableness all round or are there rules?

Reservations cancelled? People allowed to travel on the next train with an advance ticket, or change it to travel another day?

For East Coast it makes good sense to do this, and for the commuter services that might struggle to cope with fewer/slower trains, again I'd say that many people would be advised to take the day off or just not travel if they can. Nobody really wants the hassle of getting home during disruption even if they're lucky in the morning.

 

[60163]

Attach massive sails to trains and use the wind to the railway's advantage!

 

[jon0844]

I have a feeling this might also have an impact on the ECML wires!

 

[Captain Chaos]

I don't know what everyone's worried about! Sit back, relax and let chaos commence!

 

[Darren R]

I don't know what everyone's worried about! Sit back, relax and let chaos commence!

But it's only fun doing that as a spectator rather than a participant!

 

[infobleep]

Another tree came down on the Portsmouth Direct tracks this evening. This time around Haslemere. It affected trains but they were not as badly affected as they were the other evening when one fall at Witley, so the tree must have been easier to deal with. South West Trains canceled some trains and diverted others to using the Basingstoke lines from London.

Train companies say that during disruptions where might be last minute alterations or cancellations. I don't normally come across this when there is disruption but tonight I did. At the last minute the 18.55 from Woking was diverted via Basingstoke. I'd already decided to take a chance with later trains and visit the supermarket.

In contrast the 19.15 was changed from being diverted to running to Portsmouth at the last minute. Once I got on board, the Guard announced he had just been informed of a tree on the line and it would be cancelled from Guildford. Perhaps the people on board were not told of the diversion. It was listed on National Rail Enquiries about 2 minutes before it was due to leave. Anyway the guard said he would check if the train was still to be cancelled.

At Guildford it was listed as expected to arrive 2 minutes late. As I and many others left the station I noticed it was listed as delayed. Just checking real train times I see they cancelled it, as he said they would.
http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/W94318/2013/10/26. However no need to provide road transport, as he suggested they might, as the next train ran through, although late.

I also see a train to Ascot was cancelled again because of an obstruction. Also the 19.30 was cancelled between Waterloo and Woking due to an unknown cause. It seems likely that the unknown cause was the tree falling on the line.

It's fairly windy now. I just hope I don't have any cancelled trains tomorrow morning, as I'm heading to Gomshall for a 13 mile walk to Dorking. The trains only run once an hour towards Gatwick. It's every two hours to Gomsahll but they do add in extra stops if the previous hour's train is cancelled. However, an hour is too late when meeting people arriving by car and the evenings get darker earlier.

Thunderstorms are also a possibility for early Sunday morning, along with rain. So if the wind doesn't get the trains, perhaps a lightening strike will. If really unlucky they will get both. That's nature for you.

 

[ushawk]

It seems odd that they've got revised timetables given that nobody knows what might happen and more importantly where it might happen.

Would you rather they have nothing prepared, then have major disruption occur, sending a full service into chaos ?

You cant switch from a full service to a revised service either, as that causes even more problems.

 

[jon91]

I have a feeling this might also have an impact on the ECML wires!

A mouse sneezing in a field several miles away will have an impact on them...