UK Storms

[bicbasher]

For those of us in the Southeastern region, I doubt we'll see any difference in service whatsoever...

I won't be surprised if Southeastern manage to provide a near normal service on Monday in comparison to the one just gone due to over-running Network Rail work between London Bridge and New Cross.

 

[al78]

That of course ties in with the infamous Michael Fish statement during his weather forecast on Thursday 15th October 1987 when he was at pains to reassure everyone that there would not be a hurricane affecting Britain.

That is a common misconception. He was actually referring to a hurricane in Florida. Someone who's relative was in Florida at the time was concerned about a hurricane that had been affecting parts of Florida and had contacted the BBC about it so he was just responding to that by saying there would be no hurricane.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

It's good fun when we're pitching and rolling all over the place, I've missed it after a very calm summer.

I have good memories of doing the SRN4s across the Channel in force 8 gales on more than one occasion...

 

[83G/84D]

With regards to flooding at the sea wall around Dawlish a lot depends on wind direction and strength as well as height and timing of the high tide. There is also monitoring equipment on the unstable cliffs around here.

Contigency plans are in place and extra staff are being put on standby in the South West and elsewhere I understand.

 

[Oswyntail]

That is a common misconception. He was actually referring to a hurricane in Florida. Someone who's relative was in Florida at the time was concerned about a hurricane that had been affecting parts of Florida and had contacted the BBC about it so he was just responding to that by saying there would be no hurricane.

That too is a common misconception. Fish got so fed up with being remembered only for that night that he threw excuse around like confetti in his later career. The only available facts are that he mentioned the call in the forecast for Britain, making no mention of Florida, then went on to say that there were indeed strong winds on the way for Britain. IIRC, the Florida story didn't emerge till about 10 years later.

 

[ushawk]

Think the RHTT trains will be working overtime Sunday/Monday !!

Expect a LOT of items on NRE to do with poor adhesion.

 

[northofthesand]

Throw in some heavy rain too and there's a possibility of land slip,I was
working on the railway when the 1st train of the day hit one around st bee's
last year.....scary stuff

 

[simple simon]

if the winds were coming from the east, especially if down the east coast, then a storm surge up the Thames would seriously test the Thames barrier.

Hopefully the Underground would not end up being reserved for people using aqualungs.

Simon

 

[DarloRich]

Because of course in the 188 year history of railways we have never ridden out any kind of adverse weather. :roll:

I mean i expect the country to simply implode having being lashed by a storm of biblical proportions. Perhaps we will be assaulted by hail then plagued by locusts as we slip, inexorably, towards Armageddon.

(Exodus 9:13–24 / Exodus 10:3–6 for the more educated!)

I am already rounding up the animals but i am unsure how to store them to ensure none are eaten. Now where did i leave my nails and hammer................

Get a grip. Everything will be fine but you cant beat a good flap!

 

[tsr]

I have been told that any weather-induced high waves (preceded out in the Atlantic by some circa-50ft offerings ) will be mitigated somewhat by natural cycles which will prevent unusually high tides in the Dawlish & wider South Coastal areas.

 

[455driver]

Oh dear, working Sunday late shift!

Take an overnight bag with you!
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It may clear the track of those pesky leaves. So dare I say it you may get a better service.

Leaves will still be a problem just that they will have taken the tree with them!

 

[ModernRailways]

Leaves will still be a problem just that they will have taken the tree with them!

Can just see it now: 'Due to a tree on the line we are unable to clear the leaves. Services will be subject to short notice delays/cancellations.'

 

[High Dyke]

TBH...all this talk of adverse weather seems to be a storm in a teacup if you ask me...

 

[michael769]

The latest computer model predictions suggest that the storm will head straight though the midlands deepening as it passes, with (as is normally the case) the highest winds on its SW quadrant which means the South Coast is in the firing line, and can expect 70-80mph winds, though there will be severe gales pretty much everywhere south of the Pennines.

But those who miss the brunt of the wind will have instead rain to contend with as the worst of that will be concentrated on the northern flank, so anywhere from the midlands northwards can expect a serious dousing.

There is still a little uncertainty about the above especially in terms of how intense it will be and its precise location. We should start to get a better idea tomorrow as it comes into the range of the very high resolution models (which are currently limited to 48 hours). The met will be updating the weather warnings tomorrow.

 

[DarloRich]

The latest computer model predictions suggest that the storm will head straight though the midlands deepening as it passes, with (as is normally the case) the highest winds on its SW quadrant which means the South Coast is in the firing line, and can expect 70-80mph winds, though there will be severe gales pretty much everywhere south of the Pennines.

But those who miss the brunt of the wind will have instead rain to contend with as the worst of that will be concentrated on the northern flank, so anywhere from the midlands northwards can expect a serious dousing.

There is still a little uncertainty about the above especially in terms of how intense it will be and its precise location. We should start to get a better idea tomorrow as it comes into the range of the very high resolution models (which are currently limited to 48 hours). The met will be updating the weather warnings tomorrow.

wow so you mean a completely normal autumnal storm will hit the UK? Winds of 70-80 mph and rain. Goodness. That is almost unprecedented!

the level of flappage is an embarrassment

 

[tsr]

The latest computer model predictions suggest that the storm will head straight though the midlands deepening as it passes, with (as is normally the case) the highest winds on its SW quadrant which means the South Coast is in the firing line, and can expect 70-80mph winds, though there will be severe gales pretty much everywhere south of the Pennines.

But those who miss the brunt of the wind will have instead rain to contend with as the worst of that will be concentrated on the northern flank, so anywhere from the midlands northwards can expect a serious dousing.

There is still a little uncertainty about the above especially in terms of how intense it will be and its precise location. We should start to get a better idea tomorrow as it comes into the range of the very high resolution models (which are currently limited to 48 hours). The met will be updating the weather warnings tomorrow.

That is a good summary and one that I agree with.

The more technically-minded members (perhaps yourself included!) may wish to observe today's 12Z GFS forecasting model run if they have not already done so, which provides, I think, a rough baseline as to just how "not pretty" things could get. It's been picked up on by a number of commentators. The 18Z Synoptic Fax charts, from present analysis onwards, also fail to fill me with joy.

In plain English, I see several weather charts which could, as forecaster Ian Fergusson put it a few minutes ago, lead to profound impacts on transport - if they turn out correct.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

wow so you mean a completely normal autumnal storm will hit the UK? Winds of 70-80 mph and rain. Goodness. That is almost unprecedented!

the level of flappage is an embarrassment

Winds of around 80mph (possibly more) may strike much of the South, including many inland locations. This is not usual day-to-day weather for the region, so it is quite possible this will cause serious effects, which areas with toughened infrastructure, trees, etc., (due to more frequent gales) would not think twice about.

 

[DarloRich]

That is a good summary and one that I agree with.

The more technically-minded members (perhaps yourself included!) may wish to observe today's 12z GFS forecasting model run if they have not already done so, which provides, I think, a rough baseline as to just how "not pretty" things could get. It's been picked up on by a number of commentators. The 18Z Synoptic Fax charts, from present analysis onwards, also fail to fill me with joy.

In plain English, I see several weather charts which could, as forecaster Ian Fergusson put it a few minutes ago, lead to profound impacts on transport - if they turn out correct.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Winds of around 80mph (possibly more) may strike much of the South, including many inland locations. This is not usual day-to-day weather for the region, so it is quite possible this will cause serious effects, which areas with toughened infrastructure, trees, etc., (due to more frequent gales) would not think twice about.

Whilst not usual it is also not out of the ordinary for this time of year. Although i do appreciate that being in the south it will lead to vast wailing and gnashing of teeth

 

[455driver]

If the winds are 70-80mph does that mean I can coast all the way to work and not burn any diesel?

Of course getting home will be a complete @$%& into the headwind!

 

[tsr]

If the winds are 70-80mph does that mean I can coast all the way to work and not burn any diesel?

Of course getting home will be a complete @$%& into the headwind!

Staff are surely instructed to use a tacking manoeuvre during such weather...

 

[al78]

That too is a common misconception. Fish got so fed up with being remembered only for that night that he threw excuse around like confetti in his later career. The only available facts are that he mentioned the call in the forecast for Britain, making no mention of Florida, then went on to say that there were indeed strong winds on the way for Britain. IIRC, the Florida story didn't emerge till about 10 years later.

It isn't a misconception, it is what Michael said himself. If you are going to assert that he was lying/making it up to cover himself then you should present evidence to back it up otherwise it is just a nothing statement. Any fool can make unsubstantiated assertions, what is important are facts and evidence.

 

[455driver]

Staff are surely instructed to use a tacking manoeuvre during such weather...

so you are saying I should 'tack' along the A3!

I can see a slight problem with that!

 

[tsr]

so you are saying I should 'tack' along the A3!

I can see a slight problem with that!

If everyone else has to, I don't see a problem...

 

[pitdiver]

if the winds were coming from the east, especially if down the east coast, then a storm surge up the Thames would seriously test the Thames barrier.

Hopefully the Underground would not end up being reserved for people using aqualungs.

Simon

If this is the case I'm glad I have just had my cylinder filled back up to 232 Bar.

 

[Sleepy]

GA are passing Advance tickets for Monday for travel on Sunday.

 

[OxtedL]

I have been told that any weather-induced high waves (preceded out in the Atlantic by some circa-50ft offerings ) will be mitigated somewhat by natural cycles which will prevent unusually high tides in the Dawlish & wider South Coastal areas.

What a wonderfully vague term 'natural cycles' is. Are you saying that we're not at full moon or new moon, so tides won't be at their maximum, so unusually big storm surges aren't likely?

It isn't a misconception, it is what Michael said himself. If you are going to assert that he was lying/making it up to cover himself then you should present evidence to back it up otherwise it is just a nothing statement. Any fool can make unsubstantiated assertions, what is important are facts and evidence.

If you have a problem with his assertion then in this case it'd be a hell of a lot more convenient if you could produce evidence of Fish producing the Florida explanation much sooner - the alternative presumably being us all pouring over a full list of everything Michael Fish said or did over a ~15 year period.

 

[DavidBrown]

wow so you mean a completely normal autumnal storm will hit the UK? Winds of 70-80 mph and rain. Goodness. That is almost unprecedented!

the level of flappage is an embarrassment

Oh come on, have you not seen the extreme weather this country has had this year?

We had rain in spring.
We had sun in summer.
We have storms in autumn.

You know what - I'm going to make a bold prediction and say that it might just snow somewhere this winter. Brace yourselves!

 

[DaveNewcastle]

. . . . . seems to be a storm in a teacup if you ask me...

Yeah.
It'll soon blow over.

 

[DXMachina]

so you are saying I should 'tack' along the A3!

I can see a slight problem with that!

In hazardous conditions, a tack is the best form of defence

 

[BradNufc]

Any advice for Monday because if its this bad, I am travelling from Didcot Parkway to Newcastle via Birmingham New Steet and Doncaster, what problems will affect me??

 

[ainsworth74]

There is no way of giving you useful advice this far in advance. It would have to wait until we actually know what's happening with the weather.