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Do you support High Speed 3?

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UrbanWorld

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No, the Phase 1 Hybrid Bill ends at Handsacre and it cannot go any further, as it has passed its second reading in the Commons. Parliament has approved the idea of a high speed railway between London and the West Midlands, all that can now be changed is the exact detail of it.
Higgins said it will be on Phase 1. How it does it I do not know. I can only assume he will get another act passed and merge it into phase 1.

Which is wonderful, but it is not the full extent of the story. After running on the wonderful line from Crewe, the HS2 classic-compatibles must then run via Stockport, where there is very little extra capacity. The three Virgin train services an hour can only be replaced one-for-one by three HS2 classic-compatibles, each of which can then only be a 200m set and thus carry no extra passengers. Therefore no more passenger capacity would exist between Manchester and London, despite the journey time almost halving, which is not going to end well for anyone involved.
Firstly, Manchester does not need three London trains per hour. Also, why can't the trains be lengthened?
Which is why the extension to Manchester is justified by the increase in passenger numbers that would overwhelm the existing infrastructure.
I think you are trying to make a poor excuse to justify a horrendously expensive HS2 link into Manchester from Crewe. It is best to look at figures. Liverpool and Manchester had one train per hour each to London and both had the same travel time. Then Manchester had 3 trains per hour and Liverpool remained with one. Manchester's seats to London were about 8,500 and 5,000 were taken up. Seats available then increased to over 20,000. Yet Manchester still only uses about 5,000 of them. The only train that was and still is overcrowded is the 7 a.m. London to Manchester service. All the rest have well more seats than passengers. There are too many trains on the WCML not passengers.

The link from Crewe to Manchester is not currently running short of passenger capacity at all and probably never will, unless the city of Manchester quadruples in size. Manchester will not max out on classic line capacity.

Scotland (Glasgow) to Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds in just over 2 hours is very acceptable. If in-cab signalling and line upgrades are undertaken the Pendolinos can do 150mpg most of the way, taking it down to around 1.5 hours. Even more acceptable. You do not need to spend a fortune on high-speed track to get that. I read that even if a full high-speed lines is run to Scotland they predict that only 7% of air travel will move over to rail. London also has the City airport. Not everyone who travels to Heathrow goes to central London. Many visit companies in west London and the Thames Valley. The reason the Thames Valley expanded was because of adjacent Heathrow.
 
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NotATrainspott

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Higgins said it will be on Phase 1. How it does it I do not know. I can only assume he will get another act passed and merge it into phase 1.

It might open at the same time as Phase 1 but the Crewe works will be part of the Phase 2 Hybrid Bill. As the Phase 1 Bill has already had its second reading without Crewe involved, it cannot be added onto it. This is not difficult to understand.

Firstly, Manchester does not need three London trains per hour. Also, why can't the trains be lengthened?

To 260m long, yes, but then the HS2 classic-compatibles will just be the same length as the Pendolinos they're replacing. If the Crewe-Manchester HS2 section will only 'save a few minutes', and the journey time with it would be half of the current time of just above two hours, then the journey time without it would be around the same. With that journey time, the number of passengers wanting to travel between London and Manchester will increase. Any spare capacity at the moment would disappear and there would be no scope to increase capacity any more without building the captive spur. I cannot see how this is difficult to comprehend.

I think you are trying to make a poor excuse to justify a horrendously expensive HS2 link into Manchester from Crewe. It is best to look at figures. Liverpool and Manchester had one train per hour each to London and both had the same travel time. Then Manchester had 3 trains per hour and Liverpool remained with one. Manchester's seats to London were about 8,500 and 5,000 were taken up. Seats available then increased to over 20,000. Yet Manchester still only uses about 5,000 of them. The only train that was and still is overcrowded is the 7 a.m. London to Manchester service. All the rest have well more seats than passengers. There are too many trains on the WCML not passengers.

Which is the case today, not the case in 2026 or 2029. It's helpful to try to predict what passenger numbers will be in the future rather than claiming they are fine at the moment and so there's no need to do anything. Every part of government needs to plan ahead: local authorities plan ahead and work out how many schools they need to have because it takes several years to build them and train the staff to teach in them.

The link from Crewe to Manchester is not currently running short of passenger capacity at all and probably never will, unless the city of Manchester quadruples in size. Manchester will not max out on classic line capacity.

Except that the section between Stockport and Piccadilly already has with the Virgin VHF timetable.

Scotland (Glasgow) to Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds in just over 2 hours is very acceptable. If in-cab signalling and line upgrades are undertaken the Pendolinos can do 150mpg most of the way, taking it down to around 1.5 hours. Even more acceptable. You do not need to spend a fortune on high-speed track to get that. I read that even if a full high-speed lines is run to Scotland they predict that only 7% of air travel will move over to rail. London also has the City airport. Not everyone who travels to Heathrow goes to central London. Many visit companies in west London and the Thames Valley. The reason the Thames Valley expanded was because of adjacent Heathrow.

Pendolinos can only do 140mph on parts of the line where the track geometry allows 140mph running, and only then will in-cab signalling actually allow it to be done. There isn't much of the WCML north of Preston where that is true, and even if it were, it would simply mean that the Pendolinos would catch up with the freight train in front even faster than they do today.

High speed rail from Manchester to Scotland would bring down journey times to one hour. That's quite a bit better than your fantasy of 2 hours being acceptable when it's not possible to do that anyway. I would like to see where you read that only 7% of air passengers would transfer to rail with a full new line built.

Your points and writing style suggests you're another incarnation of previous forum members who didn't exactly add much to the conversation. If you are, please stop it.
 

Camden

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Which is wonderful, but it is not the full extent of the story. After running on the wonderful line from Crewe, the HS2 classic-compatibles must then run via Stockport, where there is very little extra capacity. The three Virgin train services an hour can only be replaced one-for-one by three HS2 classic-compatibles, each of which can then only be a 200m set and thus carry no extra passengers. Therefore no more passenger capacity would exist between Manchester and London, despite the journey time almost halving, which is not going to end well for anyone involved.

Since the captive trains are 2 200 metre units (sensible since I am sure they will rarely run doubled up in practice) why can't the classic compatibles do likewise? That being the case, building new stations for HS2 becomes a much more flexible affair, needing only new platforms and mouth remodelling, arriving into cities on classic rails.

There are speed improvements which can be made on the route to Liverpool, yes. These may be feasible because there is capacity on this route for extra services.

That's very interesting, how much time could be saved and how? I wonder why HS2 didn't include this when they published the times for the destinations. Nearly one hour and forty minutes isn't much to get excited about, after all.
 

UrbanWorld

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Since the captive trains are 2 200 metre units (sensible since I am sure they will rarely run doubled up in practice) why can't the classic compatibles do likewise? That being the case, building new stations for HS2 becomes a much more flexible affair, needing only new platforms and mouth remodelling, arriving into cities on classic rails.
That seems so obvious.
That's very interesting, how much time could be saved and how? I wonder why HS2 didn't include this when they published the times for the destinations. Nearly one hour and forty minutes isn't much to get excited about, after all.
I read 15 minutes max can be shaved off the Crewe to Liverpool run. This would take Liverpool to about 1hr 21 minutes from London via the Crewe Hub using CC lines; and Manchester about the same. So I can't see the logic in extending HS2 above Crewe to shave off about 16 minutes to Manchester. That few minutes will cost a fortune. I can't see that tunnel being used either. Manchester airport can only be accessed from the south with high-speed rail so Birmingham and London are served better than the North West towns and cities.

What will determine taking HS2 directly to Manchester is HS3. If this is high-speed track from Liverpool to Manchester then this can be used to access both cities on HS2. If it is not high-speed rail track then there is a good probability that Manchester will not get full high-speed track from Crewe. This is why Higgins wants the Crewe Hub finished at the same time as phase 1, effectively a part of it.
 
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Camden

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An hour and twenty is a fair time to get to Manchester or Liverpool. I've personally never had a problem getting a seat on Manchester trains. Of course, projections for the future and all that, but doubling up classic compatibles seems a more sensible approach than these captive trains and dedicated lines all over the place.

Dare I say that if the trains are 400 metres long, then you don't really need three of them an hour and thus can save capacity on the line that way?? Is there much difference to a passenger between a service every 20 minutes and a service every 30? I don't think so, particularly when most people book ahead rather than turn up and go these days.
 

Noddy

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That seems so obvious.
I read 15 minutes max can be shaved off the Crewe to Liverpool run. This would take Liverpool to about 1hr 21 minutes from London via the Crewe Hub using CC lines; and Manchester about the same. So I can't see the logic in extending HS2 above Crewe to shave off about 16 minutes to Manchester. That few minutes will cost a fortune. I can't see that tunnel being used either. Manchester airport can only be access from the south with high-speed rail so serving Birmingham and London better than the North West towns and cities.

What will determine taking HS2 directly to Manchester is HS3. If this is high-speed track from Liverpool to Manchester then this can be used to access both cities on HS2. If it is not high-speed rail track then there is a good probability that Manchester will not get full high-speed track from Crewe. This is why Higgins wants the Crewe Hub finished at the same time as phase 1, effectively a part of it.


Except it doesn't just run to Manchester-it goes past and reconnects to the WCML to the north*. Thus also providing even faster through times for London-Scotland trains, and better connections to Manchester airport from the north.

*EDIT: just south of Wigan.
See http://webarchive.nationalarchives.... midlands to manchester route section map.pdf
 
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UrbanWorld

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It might open at the same time as Phase 1 but the Crewe works will be part of the Phase 2 Hybrid Bill. As the Phase 1 Bill has already had its second reading without Crewe involved, it cannot be added onto it. This is not difficult to understand.
Having the Crewe Hub completed at the same time is not difficult to understand either, no matter what phase it is called.
To 260m long, yes,
You have not written why they cannot be 400m long. I cannot see why they cannot be full length.
With that journey time, the number of passengers wanting to travel between London and Manchester will increase.
Will they? That is wild optimism.
Which is the case today, not the case in 2026 or 2029. It's helpful to try to predict what passenger numbers will be in the future rather than claiming they are fine at the moment and so there's no need to do anything.
More wild optimism. So Manchester is going to increase threefold in population on 15-20 years?

Manchester was inexplicably given three London trains per hour when demand was not there or predicted to increase to three times the level. The empty trains blocked up the WCML and this was given as an excuse to justify HS2 as the WCML was "short of capacity".

Government needs to plan ahead, but predicting that Manchester to London rail traffic will increase about fourfold is pure madness.
Except that the section between Stockport and Piccadilly already has with the Virgin VHF timetable.
This section does not need three Virgin trains as they running full of empty seats. Three HS2 trains 400m long will carry one hell of bunch of people.

Pendolinos can do 150mph with in-cab signalling. The line to Scotland can be ironed out in part. Freight can be run at night or diverted to the Settle to Carlisle line for a length of its run.

Glasgow to Liverpool and Scotland can had in about 1hr 40m using an uprated CC line and 150mph Pendolinos. That is highly acceptable and not fantasy.

This my first time on this forum and I detect attitude when I come across it and you have it spades. I assume others have ripped you apart as well by your reaction when cornered. You are trying to justify the unjustifiable here.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
An hour and twenty is a fair time to get to Manchester or Liverpool. I've personally never had a problem getting a seat on Manchester trains.
No one does. You will have problems getting seats on the Liverpool trains.

Doubling up classic compatibles does seem a more sensible approach than these captive trains and dedicated lines all over the place for sure.
Dare I say that if the trains are 400 metres long, then you don't really need three of them an hour and thus can save capacity on the line that way?? Is there much difference to a passenger between a service every 20 minutes and a service every 30? I don't think so, particularly when most people book ahead rather than turn up and go these days.
You do have common sense. There is also the prospect of double decked high-speed trains, of which provision must be made. Of course bridges would need attention, etc, but the cost will be less less than high-speed track all the way.
 
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class26

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Having the Crewe Hub completed at the same time is not difficult to understand either, no matter what phase it is called.

You have not written why they cannot be 400m long. I cannot see what te cannot be full length.

Will they? That is wild optimism.

More wild optimism. So Manchester is going to increase threefold in population on 15-20 years?

Manchester was inexplicably given three London trains per hour when demand was not there or predicted to increase to three times the level. The empty trains blocked up the WCML and this was given as an excuse to justify HS2 as the WCML was "short of capacity".

Government needs to plan ahead, but predicting that Manchester to London rail traffic will increase about fourfold is pure madness.

This section does not need three Virgin trains as they running full of empty seats. Three HS2 trains 400m long will carry one hell of bunch of people.

Pendolinos can do 150mph with in-cab signalling. The line to Scotland can be ironed out in part. Freight can be run at night or diverted to the Settle to Carlisle line for a length of its run.

Glasgow to Liverpool and Scotland can had in about 1hr 40m using an uprated CC line and 150mph Pendolinos. That is highly acceptable and not fantasy.

This my first time on this forum and I detect attitude when I come across it and you have it spades. I assume others have ripped you apart as well by your reaction when cornered. You are trying to justify the unjustifiable here.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

No one does. You will have problems getting seats on the Liverpool trains.

Doubling up classic compatibles does seem a more sensible approach than these captive trains and dedicated lines all over the place for sure.

You do have common sense. There is also the prospect of double decked high-speed trains, of which provision must be made. Of course bridges would need attention, etc, but the cost will be less less than high-speed track all the way.


Pendolinos can only do a max of 140 mph with in cab signalling, 125 mph without. Where do you get the 150 mph figure from ?
 

NotATrainspott

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Since the captive trains are 2 200 metre units (sensible since I am sure they will rarely run doubled up in practice) why can't the classic compatibles do likewise? That being the case, building new stations for HS2 becomes a much more flexible affair, needing only new platforms and mouth remodelling, arriving into cities on classic rails.

You would then need to build the same set of four 400m platforms at Piccadilly as are planned, and have to find out some way of connecting them to the lines south of the station without impeding capacity. All of this will have a cost and will cause disruption in a way that isn't caused by the HS2 plans. With the past few days' disruption at King's Cross making national news, I hope you are aware of just how difficult it actually is to do massive changes to the existing railway.

What this idea would mean is that the platform space currently used by the Pendolinos would become available but there would be no track capacity for it to be used by any other services, so the positives won't be as good as they are for HS2, as the scheme will allow there to be significantly more local services along the Stockport corridor.

That's very interesting, how much time could be saved and how? I wonder why HS2 didn't include this when they published the times for the destinations. Nearly one hour and forty minutes isn't much to get excited about, after all.

In their Route Engineering Options Report, MSG did have a map with various options for HS2 running into Liverpool. There were various chords or minor line readjustments suggested that would reduce journey times on existing tracks. However, I think it is sensible that none are being provided as they would cause disruption while being built, would only save a few minutes and would then become useless once a captive link must be built. HS2 infrastructure should be built properly from the very start, and making compromises in the short term can cause long term problems.

That seems so obvious.
I read 15 minutes max can be shaved off the Crewe to Liverpool run. This would take Liverpool to about 1hr 21 minutes from London via the Crewe Hub using CC lines; and Manchester about the same. So I can't see the logic in extending HS2 above Crewe to shave off about 16 minutes to Manchester. That few minutes will cost a fortune. I can't see that tunnel being used either. Manchester airport can only be accessed from the south with high-speed rail so Birmingham and London are served better than the North West towns and cities.

Which is why it's not being done to shave off the time to Manchester; it's being done to provide extra capacity and to allow the Stockport corridor to be used for other train services.

Oddly enough, as the current plans for high speed rail exist only to the south of Manchester it makes sense that Manchester Airport will only see high speed services to the south. Passengers from the Airport will be allowed to use the various HS2 services from Piccadilly so the line does have some utility for them, but more importantly it frees up capacity at Piccadilly and in other places for more local services from across the wider North West to then reach the Airport. Also, when HS2 is extended to Scotland via Preston, there will almost certainly be an hourly train alternating between Glasgow and Edinburgh heading to Manchester via the Airport, so the Airport will then be accessible from the North as well as the South of Great Britain. As it is centrally located, unlike Heathrow, it will flourish with the expansion of the high speed rail network.

What will determine taking HS2 directly to Manchester is HS3. If this is high-speed track from Liverpool to Manchester then this can be used to access both cities on HS2. If it is not high-speed rail track then there is a good probability that Manchester will not get full high-speed track from Crewe. This is why Higgins wants the Crewe Hub finished at the same time as phase 1, effectively a part of it.

Which is odd given that David Higgins plans to speed up construction of Phase 2 so that it opens in 2030. He plans that the station sites are built at the same time as the Phase 1 ones so that wider regeneration work can commence as soon as possible, even though the tracks won't reach the station for a few years. Higgins wants the entirety of Phase 2 speeded up but there are various components of the lines which will delay opening until 2030. However, the line between Handsacre and Crewe is simple and cheap to build, therefore it can be built for around the same time as Phase 1 and that's the sole reason it is being built that quickly. There is no hidden subtext.

An hour and twenty is a fair time to get to Manchester or Liverpool. I've personally never had a problem getting a seat on Manchester trains. Of course, projections for the future and all that, but doubling up classic compatibles seems a more sensible approach than these captive trains and dedicated lines all over the place.

A more sensible approach if you already have 400m platforms available in Manchester, which there aren't. There is no business case in providing 400m platforms to be used by classic-compatibles.

Dare I say that if the trains are 400 metres long, then you don't really need three of them an hour and thus can save capacity on the line that way?? Is there much difference to a passenger between a service every 20 minutes and a service every 30? I don't think so, particularly when most people book ahead rather than turn up and go these days.

You do need them at the same frequency as there is at the moment. If frequency is reduced, they become less popular and the business case for HS2 gets worse.

Having the Crewe Hub completed at the same time is not difficult to understand either, no matter what phase it is called.

You have not written why they cannot be 400m long. I cannot see what te cannot be full length.

Because there's no reasonable way to provide 400m platforms at Piccadilly for them. That kills that idea completely.

Will they? That is wild optimism.

As journey times decrease, more people want to do the journey. I cannot fathom why you believe this won't happen. When British Rail brought in the HSTs and 125mph running, did passenger numbers increase?

More wild optimism. So Manchester is going to increase threefold in population on 15-20 years?

Passenger numbers don't depend upon population. If that were true, there's no way that passenger numbers in the UK could have risen by so much in recent years even though population growth has not been that high.

Manchester was inexplicably given three London trains per hour when demand was not there or predicted to increase to three times the level. The empty trains blocked up the WCML and this was given as an excuse to justify HS2 as the WCML was "short of capacity".

If there's one problem everyone criticises the GB rail network for having it is that the trains between the largest cities are always full to the brim with fresh air.

Government needs to plan ahead, but predicting that Manchester to London rail traffic will increase about fourfold is pure madness.

Are you a professional planner? Do you have any experience in predicting things?

This section does not need three Virgin trains as they running full of empty seats. Three HS2 trains 400m long will carry one hell of bunch of people.

And the only truly relevant passenger number figure is during the peak.

Pendolinos can do 150mph with in-cab signalling. The line to Scotland can be ironed out in part. Freight can be run at night or diverted to the Settle to Carlisle line for a length of its run.

Freight can't all be run at night because maintenance has to be done and because some freight journeys take too long to stay wholly within the 'night'.

Glasgow to Liverpool and Scotland can had in about 1hr 40m using an uprated CC line and 150mph Pendolinos. That is highly acceptable and not fantasy.

Uh huh.

This my first time on this forum and I detect attitude when I come across it and you have it spades. I assume others have ripped you apart as well by your reaction when cornered. You are trying to justify the unjustifiable here.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

No one does. You will have problems getting seats on the Liverpool trains.

Doubling up classic compatibles does seem a more sensible approach than these captive trains and dedicated lines all over the place for sure.

You do have common sense. There is also the prospect of double decked high-speed trains, of which provision must be made. Of course bridges would need attention, etc, but the cost will be less less than high-speed track all the way.

Uh huh.

Pendolinos can only do a max of 140 mph with in cab signalling, 125 mph without. Where do you get the 150 mph figure from ?

150mph Pendolinos + Crewe Hub meaning no HS2 to Manchester + Liverpool = Mad John/tan.fastic from SkyscraperCity.
 

Camden

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You would then need to build the same set of four 400m platforms at Piccadilly as are planned, and have to find out some way of connecting them to the lines south of the station without impeding capacity. All of this will have a cost and will cause disruption in a way that isn't caused by the HS2 plans. With the past few days' disruption at King's Cross making national news, I hope you are aware of just how difficult it actually is to do massive changes to the existing railway.

What this idea would mean is that the platform space currently used by the Pendolinos would become available but there would be no track capacity for it to be used by any other services, so the positives won't be as good as they are for HS2, as the scheme will allow there to be significantly more local services along the Stockport corridor.



In their Route Engineering Options Report, MSG did have a map with various options for HS2 running into Liverpool. There were various chords or minor line readjustments suggested that would reduce journey times on existing tracks. However, I think it is sensible that none are being provided as they would cause disruption while being built, would only save a few minutes and would then become useless once a captive link must be built. HS2 infrastructure should be built properly from the very start, and making compromises in the short term can cause long term problems.

Yes that's what I mean, the construction of the new station at Picc would go ahead, just the tunnel would be able to be omitted by using 400 metre classic compatibles instead of captive trains. You could buy a lot of station and remodelling for that, and we're constantly being told the screws are on for money.

I don't think it's really fair to bring up Kings Cross, or to be averse to disruption involved rail construction when we're talking about making things better. Past engineering overruns and not handling things smoothly can't be held against future projects. No pain, no gain, and we can't just go digging a billion pound tunnel every time it looks like something new might be needed at an existing station, especially if the money can be better spent.

Re Liverpool, I thought it wasn't getting a captive line? Your last para sounds as if it's always been on the cards and thus no time saving was included as pointless?
 

NotATrainspott

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Yes that's what I mean, the construction of the new station at Picc would go ahead, just the tunnel would be able to be omitted by using 400 metre classic compatibles instead of captive trains. You could buy a lot of station and remodelling for that, and we're constantly being told the screws are on for money.

I don't think it's really fair to bring up Kings Cross, or to be averse to disruption involved rail construction when we're talking about making things better. Past engineering overruns and not handling things smoothly can't be held against future projects. No pain, no gain, and we can't just go digging a billion pound tunnel every time it looks like something new might be needed at an existing station, especially if the money can be better spent.

Re Liverpool, I thought it wasn't getting a captive line? Your last para sounds as if it's always been on the cards and thus no time saving was included as pointless?

The problem with that is that you can then build the wonderful new platforms but you would not free up any more capacity on the existing railway for other services. By building the tunnel, you free up the 3 VHF paths through Stockport as well as the platform space they take up at Piccadilly, thereby allowing more of the sort of local services that people say they want and Manchester will need to grow. The HS2 money doesn't just buy you the capacity from the new rialway; it gives you that capacity plus the extra capacity on the existing railway that can be given over to other important tasks.

My point about King's Cross is that people forget just how much of an impact that serious railway engineering works can have, and quite a large number of these works would provide only a fraction of the benefits of HS2. The great thing about the HS2 plans for Manchester is that they will have almost no effect whatsoever upon the running of the railway, until the single day when the classic-compatible services are replaced by the captive ones.

Fundamentally what is required is another pair of tracks from Piccadilly to the south and to provide another pair of tracks on the surface will cost as much or more than the tunnel. Even if there had been a disused or Parliamentary service railway corridor suitable even that would not have guaranteed it would be cheaper, as was the case in London where there was actually a cost and time saving from building the tunnel from Ruislip to Old Oak Common rather than using the disused New North Main Line and needing to rebuild the Hanger Lane Gyratory and all other bridges on the route.

There exist no concrete plans for a captive spur to Liverpool but it is the sort of thing that will inevitably happen someday once passenger numbers mean that 400m sets must be used rather than 200m classic-compatibles.
 

Camden

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The problem with that is that you can then build the wonderful new platforms but you would not free up any more capacity on the existing railway for other services. By building the tunnel, you free up the 3 VHF paths through Stockport as well as the platform space they take up at Piccadilly, thereby allowing more of the sort of local services that people say they want and Manchester will need to grow. The HS2 money doesn't just buy you the capacity from the new rialway; it gives you that capacity plus the extra capacity on the existing railway that can be given over to other important tasks.

My point about King's Cross is that people forget just how much of an impact that serious railway engineering works can have, and quite a large number of these works would provide only a fraction of the benefits of HS2. The great thing about the HS2 plans for Manchester is that they will have almost no effect whatsoever upon the running of the railway, until the single day when the classic-compatible services are replaced by the captive ones.

Fundamentally what is required is another pair of tracks from Piccadilly to the south and to provide another pair of tracks on the surface will cost as much or more than the tunnel. Even if there had been a disused or Parliamentary service railway corridor suitable even that would not have guaranteed it would be cheaper, as was the case in London where there was actually a cost and time saving from building the tunnel from Ruislip to Old Oak Common rather than using the disused New North Main Line and needing to rebuild the Hanger Lane Gyratory and all other bridges on the route.

There exist no concrete plans for a captive spur to Liverpool but it is the sort of thing that will inevitably happen someday once passenger numbers mean that 400m sets must be used rather than 200m classic-compatibles.

If I recall rightly, the forecast loadings for the Manchester HS2 services are an average of only around mid 40% of a 400 metre train for many years to come, which to my mind says a daytime service running 200 metre units and a peak time service making use of the 400 metre capability.

I really don't accept that bringing this service down to two trains an hour from three will mean anything more than perhaps one or two trains either side of the peak also being doubled up. If you're going to be honest about it you'd have to concede that, particularly in an era where the vast majority of people book long distance train journeys in advance, there being a train every 30 minutes or a train every 20 minutes will make next to no difference to demand here at all, if any.

On that count, considering those mid 40% loadings and the ability that gives to go to a more efficient two trains an hour rather than three, the dedicated route north of Crewe seems solely like future proofing the line for a long, long time to come. Bearing in mind what you say about Liverpool's speed improvements not being bothered with because a captive line is inevitable at some point, it does beg the question why aren't there plans to build it now in that case because it seems the same thinking (of future proofing long in to the distance, rather than any forecast requirement) is behind the requirement for the Picc tunnel.

But personally I'd think that putting up with a bit of disruption for a year or two, creating new or expanding existing stations to cope with 400 metre classic compatible trains and providing speed increases and or deploying local pinchpoint busters would be a much better spend, and mean high speed rail can get to a lot more places a lot more quickly than it otherwise will.
 
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Noddy

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But personally I'd think that putting up with a bit of disruption for a year or two, creating new or expanding existing stations to cope with 400 metre classic compatible trains and providing speed increases and or deploying local pinchpoint busters would be a much better spend, and mean high speed rail can get to a lot more places a lot more quickly than it otherwise will.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:
 

UrbanWorld

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Yes that's what I mean, the construction of the new station at Picc would go ahead, just the tunnel would be able to be omitted by using 400 metre classic compatibles instead of captive trains. You could buy a lot of station and remodelling for that,
Exactly. The trains at Liverpool and Manchester can be split over two platforms. An easy thing to do and done elsewhere. There are no capacity issues on the CC line from Crewe to Manchester. None and none will be there if HS2 run on it. Manchester does not need a separate tunnel or line at all. There will be no great rail traffic south of Stockport. NotATrainspott is spouting HS2 propaganda in order to justify this super expensive railway.

400m trains on CC line into Manchester can be run without any problems. Picc can be extended or two platforms used, as is the case also at Lime St. Read my post of the con to get HS2 in by putting 3 London train from Manchester. When you look under the surface it is a con.

Re Liverpool, I thought it wasn't getting a captive line? Your last para sounds as if it's always been on the cards and thus no time saving was included as pointless?
Liverpool is still not on HS2. HS3 being high-speed rail into Liverpool and more lobbying, common sense from HMGs next govmt may get Liverpool on. The port authority are becoming very concerned at rail capacity around the Liverpool region.
 
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Noddy

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Exactly. The trains at Liverpool and Manchester can be split over two platforms. An easy thing to do and done elsewhere. There are no capacity issues on the CC line from Crewe to Manchester. None and none will be there if HS2 run on it. Manchester does not need a separate tunnel or line at all.

Exactly where to they split trains over two platforms?

I also refer you to my above post:

Except it doesn't just run to Manchester-it goes past and reconnects to the WCML to the north*. Thus also providing even faster through times for London-Scotland trains, and better connections to Manchester airport from the north.

*EDIT: just south of Wigan.
See http://webarchive.nationalarchives.... midlands to manchester route section map.pdf

The Crewe-Manchester 'branch' is not just a line to Manchester but also forms a significant part of the core through route between Scotland and the South, as well as Manchester Airport. Check out the map.
 
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NotATrainspott

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If I recall rightly, the forecast loadings for the Manchester HS2 services are an average of only around mid 40% of a 400 metre train for many years to come, which to my mind says a daytime service running 200 metre units and a peak time service making use of the 400 metre capability.

I really don't accept that bringing this service down to two trains an hour from three will mean anything more than perhaps one or two trains either side of the peak also being doubled up. If you're going to be honest about it you'd have to concede that, particularly in an era where the vast majority of people book long distance train journeys in advance, there being a train every 30 minutes or a train every 20 minutes will make next to no difference to demand here at all, if any.

On that count, considering those mid 40% loadings and the ability that gives to go to a more efficient two trains an hour rather than three, the dedicated route north of Crewe seems solely like future proofing the line for a long, long time to come. Bearing in mind what you say about Liverpool's speed improvements not being bothered with because a captive line is inevitable at some point, it does beg the question why aren't there plans to build it now in that case because it seems the same thinking (of future proofing long in to the distance, rather than any forecast requirement) is behind the requirement for the Picc tunnel.

I keep returning to the Stockport corridor and the fact that with VHF, there is no capacity to run any more local or regional services along this route. On the other hand, the line to Liverpool will not yet be at capacity for a while, until such time as passenger numbers mean that 400m sets are necessary. There is quite an element of future-proofing throughout the HS2 plans because it is the lack of such future-proofing that has got the rail network into the mess it is in at the moment. The HS2 economic calculations end in 2040 but the line will continue running and the benefits will continue to flow for decades, centuries to come.

Also, the HS2 tunnel to Manchester is what makes it possible to run fast Birmingham-Manchester trains. Without the tunnel, there is no extra capacity to run them and so both Birmingham and Manchester will lose out considerably.

But personally I'd think that putting up with a bit of disruption for a year or two, creating new or expanding existing stations to cope with 400 metre classic compatible trains and providing speed increases and or deploying local pinchpoint busters would be a much better spend, and mean high speed rail can get to a lot more places a lot more quickly than it otherwise will.

A lovely, vague statement which might sound reasonable on the surface but when you get down to the nitty-gritty of actually delivering those 'pinchpoint busters', you see that they are not anywhere near as nice, cheap and easy as you make it out to be. HS2 is a scheme which will be more-or-less shovel-ready within the next few months as every little detail has been planned, including a huge amount that is not immediately clear on the published plan documents. That level of planning is necessary for it to be certain that a scheme will work and Network Rail has definitively said that it is not worth the bother doing major enhancements to the classic rail network in lieu of building more dedicated high speed rail.

Exactly. The trains at Liverpool and Manchester can be split over two platforms. An easy thing to do and done elsewhere. There are no capacity issues on the CC line from Crewe to Manchester. None and none will be there if HS2 run on it. Manchester does not need a separate tunnel or line at all.

Liverpool is still not on HS2. HS3 being high-speed rail into Liverpool and more lobbying, common sense from HMGs next govmt may get Liverpool on. The port authority are becoming very concerned at rail capacity around the Liverpool region.

So now you need twice as many platforms, and you need to find somewhere to stop the trains to split and join them without disrupting other services. If you did that at your all-powerful Crewe Hub, you would need six paths through Stockport an hour. Which you can't accept as being a problem, because you're Mad John from SkyscraperCity. You have been banned in every guise you have signed up as there.
 

UrbanWorld

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Exactly where to they split trains over two platforms?
On the Continent and its has been done in the UK in the past. It just makes sense. 400m is along walk to the end of the train. You will need a small train to get to the end. 200m is bad enough.
The Crewe-Manchester 'branch' is not just a line to Manchester but a significant part of the core through route between Scotland and the South, as well as Manchester Airport. Check out the map.
Trains from Scotland to the south do not need to run through Manchester. The ECML and WCML and a future HS2 to Crewe will do that. If there is any future need for urban rail around the south of Manchester, it has its street/rail running tram-trains to take the load. Manchester airports is best served from the west not east. It takes an hour to get to Manchester airport from Liverpool because of the detour. The Warrington to Altrincham line can be reused to serve most of the airport which would take traffic away from the east of the airport.

A few 400m trains running on this track per hour will not interfere with any other traffic. Or visa-versa.

Take no notice of NotATrainspott, he not with it.
 
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Noddy

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On the Continent and its has been done in the UK in the past. It just makes sense. 400m is along walk to the end of the train. You will need a small train to get to the end. 200m is bad enough.

Where on the Continent do they split High Speed trains?

Trains from Scotland to the south do not need to run through Manchester. The ECML and WCML and a future HS2 to Crewe will do that. If there is any future need for urban rail around the south of Manchester, it has its street/rail running tram-trains to take the load. Manchester airports is best served from the west not east. It takes an hour to get to Manchester airport from Liverpool because of the detour. The Warrington to Altrincham line can be reused to serve most of the airport which would take traffic away from the east of the airport.

You've clearly not looked at the map! Which I've now posted the link to twice! Scotland trains do not run through Manchester, but do run on the so called Manchester branch because most of it is the main HS2 route, which will eventually run to Glasgow/Edinburgh. But that's probably because you don't want to acknowledge FACTS and prefer NONSENSE!
 
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UrbanWorld

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You've clearly not looked at the map! Which I've now posted the link to twice! But that's probably because you don't want to acknowledge FACTS and prefer NONSENSE!
I am fully are of the rail network. I can easily see when someone attempting to justify the unjustifiable. A rail forum does not mean defend all rail for the sake of it, and promote rail for the sake of it.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
As I said, he's been banned from SkyscraperCity on several occasions for his incoherent rantings about HS2 and Liverpool. Here's an example:

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1772389
Thanks, That was a good thread. It was quite funny. :)
 

HSTEd

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If the WCRM and now the GWML fiasco have told us anything it is that upgrades on intensively operated railways never work properly.

Much better to build new lines from scratch.
 

UrbanWorld

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If the WCRM and now the GWML fiasco have told us anything it is that upgrades on intensively operated railways never work properly.

Much better to build new lines from scratch.
The solution is to take off these "expressways" the slower and congesting traffic. This may mean uprating or building new local and regional line here and there improving local and regional rail. The UK is in danger of having a flagship high-speed network and the rest mostly third rate.
 

HSTEd

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Regional rail can't generate sufficient traffic to take advantage of modern railways and there collosal capacities. Additionally existing lines are woefully in adequate for long distance operations. Too slow, too smalll a loading gauge and too short a train.
 

GrimsbyPacer

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As far as I know HS3 is just an upgrade of the Huddersfield line.
How can that have any adverse effects?? I support this idea.
However as all the plans I've seen indicate it will have a top speed of 125mph it isn't fast compared to HS2.
 

HSTEd

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We have no idea what HS3 will entail. We don't even know what HS2-2 will look like. You could easily builda new line that takes advantage of HS2 infrastructure to keep costs down without ending up with a Classic line bodge that delivers no real advantages.
 

Haydn1971

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As far as I know HS3 is just an upgrade of the Huddersfield line.

Really ? You know more than the people I know who are twiddling the dials in the background - there are no firm plans at the moment other than an idea to do a "high speed railway" across the north of England - this could be anything at this stage and follow any route, the consultants working on this will be guarding the different options as much as the HS2 options were guarded.



However as all the plans I've seen indicate it will have a top speed of 125mph it isn't fast compared to HS2.


There are no plans other than a vague graphic in a early stage report ! How can you claim that ?
 

Camden

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Getting back on to HS3, the nature of it is a good point.

Northern region, we're told, has the one of the highest operating subsidies per passenger mile. It also runs clapped out old trains, versus the decent(ish) new stock we get.

Conclusion I'm drawing is, it costs a lot of money to run and doesn't generate enough money to warrant spending on comfort.

So, on the subject of do I support HS3, you do have to ask yourself the question "how can building an addition to this heavily subsidised network be justified?"

Now it may be that the subsidies will go down in northernland as a result of HS3 taking over from transpennine, but I don't see how. The old tracks will still need maintaining, the rural services will still need running, but however many billions will have been spent additionally in order to build this thing.

I know it's easy for a Londoner to say "services should turn a profit", and I'm not saying that, but what I am saying is "won't this make rail travel in the north more expensive all round, and who is going to pay for that?"
 

NotATrainspott

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Getting back on to HS3, the nature of it is a good point.

Northern region, we're told, has the one of the highest operating subsidies per passenger mile. It also runs clapped out old trains, versus the decent(ish) new stock we get.

Conclusion I'm drawing is, it costs a lot of money to run and doesn't generate enough money to warrant spending on comfort.

So, on the subject of do I support HS3, you do have to ask yourself the question "how can building an addition to this heavily subsidised network be justified?"

Now it may be that the subsidies will go down in northernland as a result of HS3 taking over from transpennine, but I don't see how. The old tracks will still need maintaining, the rural services will still need running, but however many billions will have been spent additionally in order to build this thing.

I know it's easy for a Londoner to say "services should turn a profit", and I'm not saying that, but what I am saying is "won't this make rail travel in the north more expensive all round, and who is going to pay for that?"

What has come across in much of the media coverage about 'HS3' is that it wouldn't be expected to pass a standard BCR evaluation. Instead, it would be built primarily for the region-wide economic uplift it would cause, even though only a small percentage of it would be received as fares on the line.
 

GrimsbyPacer

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Really ? You know more than the people I know who are twiddling the dials in the background - there are no firm plans at the moment other than an idea to do a "high speed railway" across the north of England - this could be anything at this stage and follow any route, the consultants working on this will be guarding the different options as much as the HS2 options were guarded.

There are no plans other than a vague graphic in a early stage report ! How can you claim that ?

The report by One North expects a 125mph railway using current infrastructure with some new tunnels and track adjacent to existing lines. Osborne's announcement suggests that this is the case as the cost of HS3 is lot lower per mile. I think the reason no plan has been put forward by the government is to ensure no political damage can be self inflicted yet gaining rail votes.
 

Camden

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What has come across in much of the media coverage about 'HS3' is that it wouldn't be expected to pass a standard BCR evaluation. Instead, it would be built primarily for the region-wide economic uplift it would cause, even though only a small percentage of it would be received as fares on the line.

1) How would that be legal? Surely that's open to all sorts of challenges? Going up to your point about Liverpool's HS2, I assume a captive line for them was also knocked back on standard BCR reasoning? This is just one instance where I can imagine a big kick off happening, but I'm sure I could think of plenty of others where projects are much wanted for economic uplift but go wanting.

and

2) How are people outside northernland supposed to feel about this? Smoke and mirrors "economic uplifts" are all very well, but both to construct and then subsidise this comes out of the taxpayer's pockets.
 
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