General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[Tetchytyke]

The problem is rushed resignations lead to rushed elections for a replacement. It is rare that a party chooses well in that situation, even if the right person to fix the mess is the right person to take the party forward.

You saw that with the Conservatives. Major, Hague and Duncan-Smith all stood down in a rush and the party rushed their choice of replacement. Howard didn't, he stayed for a good six months after the election, and the party were able to make a better choice of leader as a result.

 

[cb a1]

I do rather think that the "we lost so I resign" thing is a bit overdone. I grant you the long-term position is untenable, but would it really be so bad to say "I tender my resignation, but will stay on until such time as a new leader can be duly elected"?

That's what happened after the Independence Referendum. Alex Salmond said that he would resign after a new leader was chosen at the Party Conference two months later.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

You saw that with the Conservatives. Major, Hague and Duncan-Smith all stood down in a rush and the party rushed their choice of replacement. Howard didn't, he stayed for a good six months after the election, and the party were able to make a better choice of leader as a result.

Well then, another subject upon which we share total agreement, for a refreshing change..

 

[overthewater]

Has anyone else seen this?

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/ampp3d/general-election-results-just-900-5682492

 

[me123]

The Lib Dems are less toxic than the SNP given Labour doesn't support an Independent Scotland and the SNP were expected to ask for another Independence vote if they got in to government.

Really? The Lib Dems are associated with austerity and the faults of the previous government. By comparison, the SNP align more closely with Labour, and lack the stigma of the coalition. That said, I certainly do not think a formal coalition would have been possible or even desirable. It would have been a Labour government, as I suspect any SNP cabinet position would have been widely resented in England (except, perhaps, Scottish secretary).

As has been said many times before, the SNP do not want another referendum at the moment - this keeps coming up, and I so no reason to believe that there will be another referendum in the next five years. I don't they'd have demanded it, it would not have been an issue.

 

[Noddy]

The Lib Dems are less toxic than the SNP given Labour doesn't support an Independent Scotland and the SNP were expected to ask for another Independence vote if they got in to government.

Really? The Lib Dems are associated with austerity and the faults of the previous government.

I think Labour's (and more widely the left's) persecution of the Lib Dems in government has directly led to the election of this Conservative government. Yes, the Lib Dems made a some horrendous mistakes, but if Labour had gone after their true enemies, they might have actually pulled off an election win or a coalition. Instead the continual bashing of the Lib Dems distracted (at least in England and Wales) from what the Tories were planning.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I think Labour's (and more widely the left's) persecution of the Lib Dems in government has directly led to the election of this Conservative government. Yes, the Lib Dems made a some horrendous mistakes, but if Labour had gone after their true enemies, they might have actually pulled off an election win or a coalition. Instead the continual bashing of the Lib Dems distracted (at least in England and Wales) from what the Tories were planning.

That does not say much for the strategy of those in the Labour Party who decided upon that particular course of action, does it...:roll:

 

[St Rollox]

The strangest one of all regarding leaders resigning or not must be the Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson.
Scottish Tories had one seat which they held on to.
So far so good until it's pointed out the Scottish Tories had their lowest percentage vote since 1865.

 

[Butts]

The strangest one of all regarding leaders resigning or not must be the Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson.
Scottish Tories had one seat which they held on to.
So far so good until it's pointed out the Scottish Tories had their lowest percentage vote since 1865.

I suspect you are being a little mischievous with those comments, I'm sure you are well aware the drop in the Tory Vote was largely as a result of the "SNP Surge".

Not only did they hold Mundell's seat they came very close to gaining Michael Moores neighbouring seat in Selkirk just being defeated by a few hundred votes.

This just goes to demonstrate "Border Country" (both sides) is natural Tory territory.

It is generally accepted by most commentators that Ruth fought an honourable and decent campaign.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I've always aligned with the LibDems (SDP wing, natch), and I am certain that history will be a lot kinder to them than the 2015 electorate were.

I think the SNP fear played a part in the LDs being wiped out in their west country heartland. I hope they bounce back quickly there, but I fear not.

I'm still not convinced by Tim Farron- his voting on gay marriage is an issue for me- but he has charisma by the bucketload and is adored in his constituency across the board. The LDs probably need that for now to rebuild.

 

[St Rollox]

I suspect you are being a little mischievous with those comments, I'm sure you are well aware the drop in the Tory Vote was largely as a result of the "SNP Surge".

Not only did they hold Mundell's seat they came very close to gaining Michael Moores neighbouring seat in Selkirk just being defeated by a few hundred votes.

This just goes to demonstrate "Border Country" (both sides) is natural Tory territory.

It is generally accepted by most commentators that Ruth fought an honourable and decent campaign.

Maybe long term the best hope for left or right unionists in Scotland is some sort of unionist coalition.
As i predicted on here last September the unionist vote would split three ways.

 

[me123]

The strangest one of all regarding leaders resigning or not must be the Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson.
Scottish Tories had one seat which they held on to.
So far so good until it's pointed out the Scottish Tories had their lowest percentage vote since 1865.

Huh? She's done very well, holding on to her single seat in the face of adversity being a highly commendable for the Tories (very likely to have been eradicated altogether), she fought a good campaign that she was never going to win, and is actually one of the few politicians on the opposition side of Holyrood that is competent.

I'd actually be quite tempted to vote for her (!) on the grounds that she offers the SNP the most credible opposition and actually holds them to account.

 

[Clip]

Has Paul O grady left the Uk yet?

 

[Johnuk123]

Has Paul O grady left the Uk yet?

Has the 'singer' Lily Allen left with him, don't hold your breath.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Has Paul O grady left the Uk yet?

Phil Collins hasn't either, and he promised to leave us all alone in 1997.

 

[Clip]

ha ha didn't think so. Though I seem to wonder that if Labour had won then everyone would be hounding that horrid Hopkins woman to leave as she said she would.


Phil Collins -

 

[radamfi]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/artic...ntry-after-a-general-election-no---not-really

says Phil Collins went to Switzerland after the 1997 election.

 

[Groningen]

So apparently a letter has been sent to a Mr. McLean; saying that he was explend for voting SNP as a Labour member.

 

[ainsworth74]

Well if them's the rules then I don't see much wrong with that (also assuming that the person the letter was sent was actually silly enough to publicly talk about what they were doing). Though what is, in effect, a five year ban seems a bit harsh!

 

[St Rollox]

Huh? She's done very well, holding on to her single seat in the face of adversity being a highly commendable for the Tories (very likely to have been eradicated altogether), she fought a good campaign that she was never going to win, and is actually one of the few politicians on the opposition side of Holyrood that is competent.

I'd actually be quite tempted to vote for her (!) on the grounds that she offers the SNP the most credible opposition and actually holds them to account.

Ruth Davidson's party did well to hold on to their one seat.
They also saw the Tory vote go up.
And then you look a bit further and find the party had its poorest percentage vote in 150 years.
Possibly a helping of independence might aid the Scottish Tories.
Just saying No to constitutional change doesn't help them.
First it was devolution itself, then it was the Calman commission, now it's the Smith commission, next it will be something else.
At it stands the Tories in Scotland just help to split the unionist vote.

 

[dcsprior]

Just saying No to constitutional change doesn't help them.
First it was devolution itself, then it was the Calman commission, now it's the Smith commission, next it will be something else.
At it stands the Tories in Scotland just help to split the unionist vote.

I'm not so sure about that - if I was opposed to any step in the direction of independence (I'm not), and if that were the most important issue to me (it's not), then I'd vote Conservative.

Also, the Scottish Tories' rhetoric seems to be to the left of their party as a whole - perhaps to avoid putting off those who vote for them principally for the above reason?

Although I don't support her party, I can't bring myself to dislike Ruth Davidson.

 

[Manchester77]

Although I don't support her party, I can't bring myself to dislike Ruth Davidson.

I have found this, she's also a far better politician than Kezia is. It's quite welcoming at FMQs when you had weeks of Kezia's mindless and ridiculous SNP BAD questions to Nicola that Ruth actually asked actual questions in relation to actual issues.

 

[St Rollox]

Could be wrong but i'm sure the last time the Scottish Tories won a Westminster bye election was Glasgow Pollok in 1967.
48 years and counting.
The Tory political problem is there just isn't enough space for them.
Even the one Tory MP only held on with the help of Labour voters and vice versa for Labour in Edinburgh South.
Ruth Davidson will hold the line for another couple of years until Murdo Fraser takes over.

 

[overthewater]

Also just to say the Tories share of the vote in Scotland is the lowest its been in a UK election for years, even with the increase turnout.

If Murdo Fraser does take over, I wonder what the new party will be called?

 

[Manchester77]

I doubt so, they're predicted to gain an MSP in Holyrood next year and Ruth is by far one of the best MSPs in the chamber currently.

 

[overthewater]

I doubt so, they're predicted to gain an MSP in Holyrood next year and Ruth is by far one of the best MSPs in the chamber currently.

Can you point to where this is being claimed? I can't see how on earth Ruth and her party will gain an extra MSP.

 

[radamfi]

Can you point to where this is being claimed? I can't see how on earth Ruth and her party will gain an extra MSP.

There are 129 MSPs and we are only talking about an increase from 15 to 16, that is from 11.6% of seats to 12.4%. Nothing significant.

 

[St Rollox]

Also just to say the Tories share of the vote in Scotland is the lowest its been in a UK election for years, even with the increase turnout.

If Murdo Fraser does take over, I wonder what the new party will be called?

Don't know about the name but Murdo Fraser is pretty open about his support for Federalism with full tax raising powers.
Problem is, most Tory voters would run a mile.
His idea isn't new, a breakaway from the Scottish Tories thought up the idea in the 1920s, they wanted dominion status for Scotland.
See Cathcart Unionists and the Scottish Party.
They ended up helping to start the SNP in 1934.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I doubt so, they're predicted to gain an MSP in Holyrood next year and Ruth is by far one of the best MSPs in the chamber currently.

The press was talking about the Scottish Tories picking up 4 or more Westminster seats about about 16 months.
LinDems were to collapse, which they did.
Nobody saw the post referendum rise of the SNP coming.

 

[Manchester77]

Can you point to where this is being claimed? I can't see how on earth Ruth and her party will gain an extra MSP.

Yes when you input recent polling for the Holyrood elections next year into the calculator you get and additional conservative seat:

http://gyazo.com/952c20d58a73f669610fa700aa33fe89

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Having only heard a part of the story, has Harriet Harmon set the wheels in motion of an internal investigation into why the Labour Party performed so poorly in that last General Election?