General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[radamfi]

It becomes more and more clear to us in the Netherlands that your vote was not so much a british election, but an european one. Cameron says that he has now a clear mandate and that he comes to us to argue with us for more exceptions. If we allow that; what stops other countries to do the same.

Few people were expecting an EU referendum as few people expected a Tory majority government. There were some signs that the Lib Dems might agree to a referendum to be part of a Tory coalition, but that was seen as fairly unlikely. As it stands now, there is a real danger that British people will be denied the right to live and work in the EU outside Britain and Ireland. That point must be rammed home as much as possible in the run up to a referendum.

 

[pemma]

As it stands now, there is a real danger that British people will be denied the right to live and work in the EU outside Britain and Ireland. That point must be rammed home as much as possible in the run up to a referendum.

Indeed.

I think there's a risk of French/German/Spanish/Italian etc. people living here working as language teachers being sent home and English people working in Europe as English teachers being sent home.
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I got the impression they preyed on the fears of England being ruled by the SNP: "vote Labour, get SNP"

Which worked for them last time when there was a risk of the Conservatives getting < 50% of seats and the Lib Dems and Labour combined getting > 50% of seats. Cameron kept saying if you vote for the Lib Dems you'll get Gordon Brown. The end result was the Lib Dems didn't get the extra seats everyone was expecting them to get and Labour and the Lib Dems didn't have enough seats to form a 2 party Coalition.

 

[Dave1987]

I would like to point out to those of you that are attacking me for having an opinion that may differ from yours (the last time I checked it is ok to not have a left wing attitude even though some people in this country clearly believe that isn't the case) that I am neither pro Europe or anti Europe. I understand the benefits of being in Europe. The PM himself is for staying in the EU but he wants to give the British people the choice over whether we stay in or not. Just because we are going to have a referendum does not mean we are going to be leaving the EU. Why are you all so against people having the choice over whether we stay in or not?
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Which worked for them last time when there was a risk of the Conservatives getting < 50% of seats and the Lib Dems and Labour combined getting > 50% of seats. Cameron kept saying if you vote for the Lib Dems you'll get Gordon Brown. The end result was the Lib Dems didn't get the extra seats everyone was expecting them to get and Labour and the Lib Dems didn't have enough seats to form a 2 party Coalition.

Might I point out that it was only in the last week of the Election campaign that the Labour party said categorically that they would do a deal with the SNP. And the SNP were constantly claiming they would have control over a Labour govt with Alex Salmond pretending to write a Labour budget at an SNP event. You wonder why people weren't convinced by Mr Milliband saying he wouldn't do a deal with the SNP. The SNP are the most divisive party that this country has ever seen. I'm sure Sturgeon has already told her MP's to start laying the foundations to try and get another Scottish referendum as soon as possible.

 

[TheKnightWho]

I would like to point out to those of you that are attacking me for having an opinion that may differ from yours (the last time I checked it is ok to not have a left wing attitude even though some people in this country clearly believe that isn't the case) that I am neither pro Europe or anti Europe. I understand the benefits of being in Europe. The PM himself is for staying in the EU but he wants to give the British people the choice over whether we stay in or not. Just because we are going to have a referendum does not mean we are going to be leaving the EU. Why are you all so against people having the choice over whether we stay in or not?
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Might I point out that it was only in the last week of the Election campaign that the Labour party said categorically that they would do a deal with the SNP. And the SNP were constantly claiming they would have control over a Labour govt with Alex Salmond pretending to write a Labour budget at an SNP event. You wonder why people weren't convinced by Mr Milliband saying he wouldn't do a deal with the SNP. The SNP are the most divisive party that this country has ever seen. I'm sure Sturgeon has already told her MP's to start laying the foundations to try and get another Scottish referendum as soon as possible.

No-one is attacking you for having an opinion. This is getting very frustrating, when people seem to think disagreement is a personal attack. It isn't.

 

[radamfi]

Regardless whether the UK leaves the EU, the UK is still geographically in Europe. This may seem to be a pedantic point, but I think it is important to point that out. By saying "should we be in or out of Europe?", that helps anti-EU rhetoric as it suggests that Europe is a completely separate entity and thus we need not have anything to do with it.

 

[Western Lord]

As it stands now, there is a real danger that British people will be denied the right to live and work in the EU outside Britain and Ireland. That point must be rammed home as much as possible in the run up to a referendum.

This is typical pro-EU scaremongering. British people worked in "Europe" before we joined and people from "Europe" worked here before we joined. Many thousands of people from Europe and the UK work in countries all over the world which are not, of course, members of the EU (a certain D. Miliband had no trouble getting a job in the USA). The idea that in the event of the UK leaving the EU (which won't happen) an impenetrable wall will go up and that British people will be banned from working in Europe is absurd.

 

[TheKnightWho]

This is typical pro-EU scaremongering. British people worked in "Europe" before we joined and people from "Europe" worked here before we joined. Many thousands of people from Europe and the UK work in countries all over the world which are not, of course, members of the EU (a certain D. Miliband had no trouble getting a job in the USA). The idea that in the event of the UK leaving the EU (which won't happen) an impenetrable wall will go up and that British people will be banned from working in Europe is absurd.

No-one is saying it's impossible. People are saying that British levels of emigration to Europe are far too high to be possible if we left the EU unless we kept our own immigration levels at comparable rates to now.

British emigration to Europe almost exactly matches European immigration to Britain. The difference being that young immigrants to Britain generally contribute a lot to the economy through taxes etc., whereas old people generally cost money through things like the NHS. This is obviously not universal, but cries of "I've contributed my fair share!" are irrelevant when the fact is we're talking about economics and not fairness. Britain gets the best possible deal by exporting old people and importing young people - you get all the money those people generate when they're young and don't have to spend any of it on them when they get old.

Benefits tourism pails in comparison to the extra costs that would be incurred by drastically reducing British emigration to Spain, for example.

 

[radamfi]

This is typical pro-EU scaremongering. British people worked in "Europe" before we joined and people from "Europe" worked here before we joined. Many thousands of people from Europe and the UK work in countries all over the world which are not, of course, members of the EU (a certain D. Miliband had no trouble getting a job in the USA). The idea that in the event of the UK leaving the EU (which won't happen) an impenetrable wall will go up and that British people will be banned from working in Europe is absurd.

I regularly go on a Dutch language forum where people help each other learn Dutch. There is a section dedicated to help people pass the Dutch language exams, required to continue living and working in the Netherlands. That section is full of Americans and Canadians. Their passage to Dutch residency is far from trivial. British people can currently live there without doing any exams.

 

[Tetchytyke]

This is typical pro-EU scaremongering. British people worked in "Europe" before we joined and people from "Europe" worked here before we joined. Many thousands of people from Europe and the UK work in countries all over the world which are not, of course, members of the EU

Trying to find work in the EU as a non-EU national is not impossible, but it is difficult. Most countries impose severe restrictions on who can come in and work, and how long for, and most countries are making these restrictions much tighter than they used to be.

If you genuinely think that countries like France, Spain and Germany will not impose severe restrictions on UK ex-pats (and bear in mind how many UK ex-pats in Spain are not "workers") in retaliation for leaving the UK, you're a lot more trusting of those governments than I would be.

 

[pemma]

Might I point out that it was only in the last week of the Election campaign that the Labour party said categorically that they would do a deal with the SNP.

Do you have a source for that?

The only relevant article I can find on it is the Telegraph Opinion column: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pre...50/Labour-must-be-open-about-an-SNP-deal.html

When Gordon Brown and Jim Murphy said the day before that in Scotland there would be no deal: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9b212878-f337-11e4-8141-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Zw53g7nx

You wonder why people weren't convinced by Mr Milliband saying he wouldn't do a deal with the SNP.

Political commentators weren't convinced Miliband would have to do a deal with the SNP. They expected a Labour-Lib Dem Coalition minority government would work, whereas a Conservative-Lib Dem Coalition minority government wouldn't due to opposition from the SNP as well as other parties like Plaid Cymru and the Greens. Obviously they expected Labour not to get more than a few seats less than the Tories when they said that.

 

[me123]

Realisitically, it was nonsense to suggest that Labour wouldn't do a deal with the SNP if they had to. If it led to Labour getting into power, you can bet your bottom dollar they'd at least try to make something work, and they'd probably have been slightly more likely to deal with the SNP than the toxic Lib Dems.

Let's look at it another way. Imagine that Labour were short of a majority, but that they could command a majority with the support of the SNP. If they didn't do that, Miliband would not have looked good. He'd have let in a Tory minority/coalition government in spite of an anti-Tory majority, he'd have thrown away his chances to deliver his manifesto and get Labour back into power. He'd have been thrown out on his ear if he didn't at least try to make it work.

Of course, the way things turned out, it never happened.

 

[ainsworth74]

Indeed! No matter what they did or did not say before the election I would have expected Labour to have at least tried to make a Confidence and Supply agreement even if a full on coalition was unlikely.

 

[radamfi]

Would the UK electorate necessarily vote to leave the EU in the referendum? Presumably most politicians will campaign to stay in, including most senior Tories. Perhaps there is a silent majority who will play it safe and vote to stay in, in the same way as the Scots took the low risk option of staying in the UK.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Would the UK electorate necessarily vote to leave the EU in the referendum? Presumably most politicians will campaign to stay in, including most senior Tories. Perhaps there is a silent majority who will play it safe and vote to stay in, in the same way as the Scots took the low risk option of staying in the UK.

Big business overwhelmingly supports staying in. Loathe as I am to the fact that the side with the more money wins, it's still true.

The papers are anti-EU because xenophobia sells, but just as a disease dies when it kills its host, they stand to lose out big time from an EU exit. It's their favourite thing they love to hate.

 

[ainsworth74]

We aren't going to leave the EU when this referendum comes around. Most people I know are horrified at the notion of leaving. They'd like to see some tweaks here and there (the whole 'closer Union' thing for instance) but even if Cameron's much vaunted 'renegotiation' goes nowhere they're not going to vote to leave.

Never going to happen so if we could all stop panicking about it that would be great

 

[Busaholic]

We aren't going to leave the EU when this referendum comes around. Most people I know are horrified at the notion of leaving. They'd like to see some tweaks here and there (the whole 'closer Union' thing for instance) but even if Cameron's much vaunted 'renegotiation' goes nowhere they're not going to vote to leave.

Never going to happen so if we could all stop panicking about it that would be great

Just as in the Scottish referendum, but even more so, people will probably vote for the status quo, particularly as Cameron will have pulled a few rabbits out of hats by sleight of hand and told his doting supporters that everything will now be rosy.

 

[TheNewNo2]

Would the UK electorate necessarily vote to leave the EU in the referendum? Presumably most politicians will campaign to stay in, including most senior Tories. Perhaps there is a silent majority who will play it safe and vote to stay in, in the same way as the Scots took the low risk option of staying in the UK.

Hard to say. It's safe to say that no one ever extols the virtues of being in Europe, you only ever hear Farage and his ilk banging the xenophobia drums and sounding the racism dogwhistles.

I agree with someone a few posts back who said that we have a representative democracy for a reason. Do I have an opinion on Europe? Sure. But am I in a position to make a truly informed decision on it? No. I have never read the treaties, I don't know how they relate to our own laws, I don't know if we get a better or worse deal than other members. My MP, whatever their party, is better placed to judge these things than I am. For the same reason, I spoilt my ballot in the police commissioner elections. We generally judge MPs based on party, as that's a reasonably reliable way of telling their stances on the issues we care about. But a choice by party is an awful way to decide who is competent enough to run the police force.

 

[me123]

Jim Murphy, Scottish Labour leader, remains in place in spite of his party's frankly horrendous performance on Thursday. He seems to be getting increasing pressure from all sides to quit; Unions, senior MSPs, parliamentary candidates... He'll go soon, I expect, but I'm surprised he's stayed this long. I think that if Labour is to survive in Scotland, it needs to radically rethink its position, and that means a fresh face at the helm and, probably, complete separation from the London party.

Having said that, as an SNP supporter, the longer he stays at the helm the better as far as I'm concerned. The guy has to be the worst Scottish Labour leader since Iain Gray; the man who ran away from his own supporters and hid in the toilet of a Subway sandwich shop, later comparing the "experience" to the killing fields of Cambodia (I'd usually post the link, but I'm on a train so have no access to Youtube at the mo).
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We aren't going to leave the EU when this referendum comes around. Most people I know are horrified at the notion of leaving. They'd like to see some tweaks here and there (the whole 'closer Union' thing for instance) but even if Cameron's much vaunted 'renegotiation' goes nowhere they're not going to vote to leave.

Never going to happen so if we could all stop panicking about it that would be great

I hope you're right.

Sadly, most of the argument against the EU goes unchallenged. Lots of people seem to think that the EU exists purely to debate lightbulb regulations, and want it gone because they see it as pointless. Of course, the anti-EU media rarely point out the many branches of legislation where the EU benefits us (healthcare arrangements for travel abroad, right to work in other EU countries, EU working times directive) that I suspect quite a lot of people have benefited from. I hope that the forthcoming referendum will give us a genuinely good debate on the merits of membership, as well as the problems that I would agree that the EU has.

Plus, I think it's rather foolish to isolate ourselves from our largest and nearest market.

 

[Metrailway]

No-one is saying it's impossible. People are saying that British levels of emigration to Europe are far too high to be possible if we left the EU unless we kept our own immigration levels at comparable rates to now.

British emigration to Europe almost exactly matches European immigration to Britain. The difference being that young immigrants to Britain generally contribute a lot to the economy through taxes etc., whereas old people generally cost money through things like the NHS. This is obviously not universal, but cries of "I've contributed my fair share!" are irrelevant when the fact is we're talking about economics and not fairness. Britain gets the best possible deal by exporting old people and importing young people - you get all the money those people generate when they're young and don't have to spend any of it on them when they get old.

Benefits tourism pails in comparison to the extra costs that would be incurred by drastically reducing British emigration to Spain, for example.

I think you are wrong on a couple of important points.

Firstly, the number of EU nationals living in the UK is higher than the number of UK citizens living in the EU.

Looking at Eurostat, there are approx 2.597 million EU nationals live in the UK in 2014. The UK has the second highest number of EU migrants after Germany.

Unfortunately, the Eurostat data is incomplete to calculate an accurate figure for UK nationals in Europe. It does come up with a figure of 700,000 UK nationals in the member states of EU who have submitted data.

According to the UN Migration stats for 2013, there are about 1.3 million UK nationals living in the EU, whilst circa 2.7 million EU nationals living in the UK.

There are also other sources which do state the number of EU nationals living in the UK is higher than the number of UK citizens living in the EU.

Secondly, your point about not paying for old people who have been 'exported' to the EU. We do pay for their healthcare and pensions.

The UK funds healthcare for a good percentage of UK nationals in the EU. This is via the S1 system for state pensioners and seconded workers.

Under this system the UK paid out £580 million to EEA members and only received £12 million in 2014. (Source:http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldhansrd/text/141216w0001.htm).

Your point also assumes that young EU migrants will not get old in this country.

It is a risky assumption to make considering that New Commonealth migrants who came here in the 50s and 60s and are now retired have not gone back to their origin countries. These migrants will tell you that they originally were expected to stay here for 5 to 10 years before going back.

 

[WelshBluebird]

We aren't going to leave the EU when this referendum comes around. Most people I know are horrified at the notion of leaving. They'd like to see some tweaks here and there (the whole 'closer Union' thing for instance) but even if Cameron's much vaunted 'renegotiation' goes nowhere they're not going to vote to leave.

Never going to happen so if we could all stop panicking about it that would be great

Most people I know are horrified at the Tories being in power but they have got a majority so. Though granted an out vote would need more than 50% of the vote (rather than just the 37% that the Tories got).

And the rubbish we here from the papers and from UKIP really won't help either (just watching a thing on the BBC about immigrants in Merthyr now, and the UKIP candidate for the area was spreading a lie about a polish shop not letting British people in), especially as in general that stuff goes unchallenged in the same arena.

 

[pemma]

Realisitically, it was nonsense to suggest that Labour wouldn't do a deal with the SNP if they had to. If it led to Labour getting into power, you can bet your bottom dollar they'd at least try to make something work, and they'd probably have been slightly more likely to deal with the SNP than the toxic Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems are less toxic than the SNP given Labour doesn't support an Independent Scotland and the SNP were expected to ask for another Independence vote if they got in to government.

Since the election it's been revealed Labour's own polls revealed that their support was lower than the YouGov/IDM polls so they weren't expecting themselves and the SNP to get 326 seats so a minority coalition would have been the only way of getting Miliband in to No10.
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Now on a less serious note does George Osborne fancy the Lib Dem candidate who stood against him: http://www.knutsfordguardian.co.uk/resources/images/3742421/

 

[EM2]

Why are you all so against people having the choice over whether we stay in or not?

Because we've had one. We voted to join. It wasn't a vote on a fixed term, or a vote on joining and maybe reassessing later.
Seeing as you still haven't answered what worries you so much about the EU, I'll ask something different.
What can't you do if the UK is in the EU, that you can do if it's not?

 

[Johnuk123]

What can't you do if the UK is in the EU, that you can do if it's not?

You can stop unlimited access from the rest of Europe.

 

[ainsworth74]

But what about people from the UK that currently enjoy unlimited access to Europe? Losing that surely counter acts any benefits to stopping unlimited travel from Europe?

 

[Johnuk123]

But what about people from the UK that currently enjoy unlimited access to Europe? Losing that surely counter acts any benefits to stopping unlimited travel from Europe?

Irrelevant, I simply answered a question with an answer.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I have just decided to rejoin this thread and wonder if certain people feel that those who wish to leave Britain are far better trained and politically aware than those who are seen wishing to enter Britain.

Incidentally, are things still the same as ever in the Calais area for those who illegally wish to enter Britain by the means of stowing away on lorries that are en route to Britain?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Irrelevant, I simply answered a question with an answer.

You did. But it's completely meaningless and unhelpful for the debate because it had no context.

Two can play at that game.

 

[EM2]

You can stop unlimited access from the rest of Europe.

I meant you personally, rather than you as a nation.

 

[St Rollox]

Maybe the real reason the Scottish Labour leader, Jim Murphy, hangs around after the worst defeat in Scottish Labour history is that there is no one left to replace him.
Also heard Jim Murphy has gone on holiday for a fortnight so there's no chance of him resigning before June.

 

[TheNewNo2]

I do rather think that the "we lost so I resign" thing is a bit overdone. I grant you the long-term position is untenable, but would it really be so bad to say "I tender my resignation, but will stay on until such time as a new leader can be duly elected"?