EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Gutfright]

"It has been suggested by some Tory candidates [sup][who?][/sup]that the possibility of ejecting EU migrants living in the UK could become a possible lever.[sup][citation needed][/sup]

That which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

 

[Mvann]

It's better to talk in percentages, because that's the damage that would be done. 5% of a big economy may be more than 10% of a small one, but bigger economies also have more flex to take the impact of the loss.

The UK would be an important trading partner, though not as important to Germany as either France or the United States. They would want to continue trading with us. But that doesn't mean we get to dictate terms and nor does it mean that we would have carte blanche to cherrypick the bits of the EU that we like.

45% of our trade is with the EU bloc, whilst only 16% of the EU bloc's trade is with us. Losing 16% of their export ecconomy would hurt the EU, but us losing nearly half of our export economy would hurt us an awful lot more. The mean numbers are irrelevant. We are not in a position of strength here. We are not indispensable.

There's also the political aspect to this: Germany and France will need to be relatively tough with us for political reasons as much as economic ones.

But the Germans have already said that politically they aren't going to be harsh as it's not in there best interests. France is a completely different kettle of fish. Especially as there far right is in support of what Britain has done. Fortunately the Germans against the EU want to get back to the principals of the EEC. Close working relationships with trading standards but not a political union that the EU commissioners want.

 

[radamfi]

Are there many "remainers" that regret the expansion of the EU to central/eastern Europe? Would there have been a referendum if that didn't occur?

 

[anme]

only 16% of the EU bloc's trade is with us.

Where did this 16% number come from?

For France and Germany, around 7% of their exports to go the UK. For the Netherlands and Belgium, it's around 9%. I haven't checked all European countries, but it seems very unlikely that it's 16% in total. I believe it's actually around 7% of exports from other EU countries that go to the UK.

See this (very nice) website for numbers: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/deu/

 

[Gutfright]

There's also the political aspect to this: Germany and France will need to be relatively tough with us for political reasons.

It's funny, during the referendum campaign we were told what a great and wonderful club the EU is.

Now we're being told it's a mafia, and they'll kneecap you if you try to leave.

 

[miami]

Are there many "remainers" that regret the expansion of the EU to central/eastern Europe? Would there have been a referendum if that didn't occur?

Not the 2005 expansion, I think that was fine, sure lots of doomsayers, but the EU was storng enough to take it, and the growth seen in the east, driving the growth of the EU in general has been amazing. Croatia would have been fine too, but I think that the Romania/Bulgaria expansion was too fast and played into the hands of the leave campaign.

Lets not forget it was the UK that approved these expansions though.

 

[anme]

"It has been suggested by some Tory candidates [who?]that the possibility of ejecting EU migrants living in the UK could become a possible lever.[citation needed]

That which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

I was hoping someone would be able to fill in more details.

Hopefully such a statement is not true. But will you agree with me that if there was any policy by the UK government that targeted foreigners in order to gain leverage in negotiations, it would be wrong and utterly abhorrent, and would have to be condemned by all civilised people?

 

[Gutfright]

I was hoping someone would be able to fill in more details.

Hopefully such a statement is not true. But will you agree with me that if there was any policy by the UK government that targeted foreigners in order to gain leverage in negotiations, it would be wrong and utterly abhorrent, and would have to be condemned by all civilised people?

Of course. That goes without saying.

 

[TheKnightWho]

In steve's defence, it was in the daily mail article that he couldn't be bothered to link.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ses-HSBC-Barclays-confirm-no-plans-leave.html

As usual, Steveman displays incredible intellectual and academic credibility.

I'm beginning to think these people will parrot anything so long as the Daily Mail says it.

 

[Mvann]

Yes I would, but then if the EU started ejecting uk nationals then you would have to say the same. It sounds more like someone has asked if the EU has said that it will repatriate uk nationals are you gonna do the same.
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Anme. You will also have noticed then that our trading with the EU has dropped from roughly 55% exports to 45% exports in 10 years. These figures were given out in 2015.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Where did this 16% number come from?

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu
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It's funny, during the referendum campaign we were told what a great and wonderful club the EU is.

Now we're being told it's a mafia, and they'll kneecap you if you try to leave.

The idea we'll be able to get all the best bits of membership of the Club Europe without paying the subscription is laughable.

 

[Gutfright]

The idea we'll be able to get all the best bits of membership of the Club Europe without paying the subscription is laughable.

So will the EU be reasonable and accept that trade with the UK is mutually beneficial?

Or will they punish Britain for leaving, to make an example of us to other countries doing the same?

What's your opinion?

 

[TheKnightWho]

So will the EU be reasonable and accept that trade with the UK is mutually beneficial?

Or will they punish Britain for leaving, to make an example of us to other countries doing the same?

What's your opinion?

You seem to think that because the EU wants to do trade with us that that somehow means we hold all the cards.

Almost everyone wants to trade with everyone else - it doesn't mean that negotiations are somehow even, though!

 

[Tetchytyke]

So will the EU be reasonable and accept that trade with the UK is mutually beneficial?

Or will they punish Britain for leaving, to make an example of us to other countries doing the same?

As I've said elsewhere in this thread, trade will continue between the EU and the UK, but the terms of this trade will not be as generous as they are as members of the EU.

If you don't want to be in the club you don't get the benefits of membership.

 

[miami]

Gutfright asks who is threatening to kick people out as leverage, and quite rightly

I know Reckless suggested it when standing for UKIP, but even Farage distanced himself from it*

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30111694

UKIP leader Nigel Farage has dismissed claims his party backs deporting existing EU migrants amid a row over comments made by its candidate in the Rochester and Strood by-election.
Mark Reckless suggested existing EU migrants would only be allowed to remain in the UK for "a transitional period" should the UK quit the EU.

I doubt Gove will have ever said something like that, and I really can't see Crabb or May doing it.


* Of course he does, see Farage isn't as bad as they say!

 

[muz379]

New Zealand knowing how our civil servants are going to be very busy have offered the use of their "battle hardened negotiators" as unlike any EU country they are a true and real friend.
The EU has shown by its spiteful comments and threats since we voted to leave how they never were any friend to us as they don't have the old and trusted connections just geographic ones which are irrelevant in a global world.
The days of being a "Little European" need to be totally reversed.

Ahh great , so brexit is going to give jobs to a load of New Zealands civil servants , diplomats ,lawyers , economists and retired politicians .

How British that's going to look when our negotiating team touches down in Brussels with its kiwi accent remains to be seen .


As for the comments by HSBC and other banks . Certainly reassuring but please bear in mind that their comments are in light of the current legal,economic and political situation . And there are certainly no guarantees involved in their comments .

 

[miami]

But the Germans have already said that politically they aren't going to be harsh as it's not in there best interests. France is a completely different kettle of fish. Especially as there far right is in support of what Britain has done. Fortunately the Germans against the EU want to get back to the principals of the EEC. Close working relationships with trading standards but not a political union that the EU commissioners want.

The EU commissioners are sent by national governments

 

[muz379]

So will the EU be reasonable and accept that trade with the UK is mutually beneficial?

Or will they punish Britain for leaving, to make an example of us to other countries doing the same?

What's your opinion?

Trading tariffs are hardly punishment .

We currently have tariff free trade which is conditional on certain things . If you wish to end those conditions then you should also expect that the benefits that go with those conditions should be up for negotiation .

 

[Mvann]

The problem with getting a trade deal with eu is that each country will want different things and what one country wants another might not. That tends to slow things down and why the USA deal is taking 10 years probably.

We don't hold all the cards but at the same time it's not like we don't hold any, as has been suggested up thread

 

[Tetchytyke]

As for the comments by HSBC and other banks . Certainly reassuring but please bear in mind that their comments are in light of the current legal,economic and political situation . And there are certainly no guarantees involved in their comments .

HSBC Holdings plc will keep their headquarters in London as long as it is beneficial to them do so. They were quick to move out of Hong Kong when sovereignty was handed over to the Chinese. I'm sure they'd move again if London stopped being an attractive place to do business. Whether Brexit changes that remains to be seen, but if France and Germany make it harder for UK-based banks to do business in Europe it might well change it.
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We don't hold all the cards but at the same time it's not like we don't hold any, as has been suggested up thread

I'm not sure who suggested that.

The EU are not going to take their bat and ball home. But they're not going to give us all the benefits of membership with none of the obligations. The cost of doing business in the EU will increase if we're not a member.

As you point out, the US struggle to get trade treaties in place quickly and they're the biggest external trading partner the EU bloc has. And the EU has history of putting significant trade tariffs in place against US imports, most notably bananas and hormone-treated cattle products in the mid-90s. This led to the US retaliating by putting trade tariffs on Scottish cashmere, because we have such as Special Relationship with them.

 

[Gutfright]

You seem to think that because the EU wants to do trade with us that that somehow means we hold all the cards.

Almost everyone wants to trade with everyone else - it doesn't mean that negotiations are somehow even, though!

We have a strong hand, but obviously not all the cards.

That's not really the point though. It's more of a about the EU's philosophy. Is it committed to the betterment of Europe, in which case it's likely to go into negotiations seeking a mutually agreeable compromise. The greatest happiness of the greatest number, if you will, would be its main goal.

Or is the EU a petty and vindictive mafia, willing to cut off its nose to spite it's face? In which case, they will go into negotiations looking to kneecap Britain as an example to others.

 

[ExRes]

Another moment to make you truly embarrassed to be British:
"It has been suggested by some Tory candidates that the possibility of ejecting EU migrants living in the UK could become a possible lever. Fears that UK nationals may be thrown out of the EU, and EU nationals ejected from the UK in a tit-for-tat war has already led to an increase in passport applications by UK emigrants in Europe."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...malmstrom-eu-trade-commissioner-brexit-uk-wto

The rest of Europe will be much better off without us.

I find it rather amusing that posters on this forum are expected to put references to show where their claims and comments emanate from while, obviously, newspapers are not but their 'information' is accepted

Who are these 'Tory candidates'?

 

[Tetchytyke]

Is it committed to the betterment of Europe, in which case it's likely to go into negotiations seeking a mutually agreeable compromise. The greatest happiness of the greatest number, if you will, would be its main goal.

It is committed to the betterment of constituent members of the EU. It will act in the best interests of EU members. If that also happens to be in the UK's best interest then that is brilliant. If that doesn't happen to be in the UK's best interest then we will have to negotiate. And anyone who thinks they'll be crawling over broken glass to trade with us is in for a very rude shock.

It isn't about being "agreeable" or a "mafia", that's a straw man argument.

 

[Gutfright]

It is committed to the betterment of constituent members of the EU. It will act in the best interests of EU members. If that also happens to be in the UK's best interest then that is brilliant. If that doesn't happen to be in the UK's best interest then we will have to negotiate. And anyone who thinks they'll be crawling over broken glass to trade with us is in for a very rude shock.

It isn't about being "agreeable" or a "mafia", that's a straw man argument.

You seem to now be saying that the EU won't seek to punish the UK for leaving? Is that right?

 

[miami]

You seem to now be saying that the EU won't seek to punish the UK for leaving? Is that right?

Their view might be that "punishing" the UK is best for the citizens of the EU as it would discourage internal strife.

 

[Gutfright]

Their view might be that "punishing" the UK is best for the citizens of the EU as it would discourage internal strife.

In which case the mafia comparison is entirely valid.

 

[miami]

In which case the mafia comparison is entirely valid.

A mafia that's democratically elected and operates in the best interests of it's members without breaking any external laws?

 

[TheKnightWho]

We have a strong hand, but obviously not all the cards.

That's not really the point though. It's more of a about the EU's philosophy. Is it committed to the betterment of Europe, in which case it's likely to go into negotiations seeking a mutually agreeable compromise. The greatest happiness of the greatest number, if you will, would be its main goal.

Or is the EU a petty and vindictive mafia, willing to cut off its nose to spite it's face? In which case, they will go into negotiations looking to kneecap Britain as an example to others.

This is exactly what I was arguing to you little more than a week ago. You were having absolutely none of it, and were convinced they all wanted to do us over!

I don't think they want to cause problems for us now, but it's very obvious that France wants the banks, and that we aren't going to get as good a deal as we could because of our dependence on the EU versus their comparatively little dependence on us.

 

[Tetchytyke]

You seem to now be saying that the EU won't seek to punish the UK for leaving? Is that right?

I've never said the EU would cut their nose off to spite their face.

But a "mutually beneficial compromise" isn't going to be as good as what we have now. So we will pay a penalty for leaving.

 

[TheKnightWho]

In which case the mafia comparison is entirely valid.

Given I've expended a considerable amount of time and research into both mafias and states, I'd be interested to hear what you think the difference between them actually is.