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Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

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Greenback

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I very much hope to see Caernarfon to Bangor reinstated one day. It has a far better business case than Carmarthen to Aberystwyth.

Reopening to Afon Wen is a bit more questionable. But I suspect that even that scheme would work out to be more viable than Carmarthen - Aberystwyth.
 
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Harbornite

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I very much hope to see Caernarfon to Bangor reinstated one day. It has a far better business case than Carmarthen to Aberystwyth.

Reopening to Afon Wen is a bit more questionable. But I suspect that even that scheme would work out to be more viable than Carmarthen - Aberystwyth.

Fair enough. Indeed I think it would be worth doing the whole route because the connection with the Cambrian can provide more operational flexibility.
 

daodao

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There is no realistic prospect of reopening rural rail lines in Wales, or elsewhere in Great Britain/Ireland, except for freight lines to access mineral deposits (and deliver them to ports). If the UK's financial position deteriorates as expected post Brexit, some rural rail lines may actually need to close as the subsidies may become unaffordable. Expect those lines serving non-Tory held seats to be targeted.

The only realistic possible re-openings in Wales for passenger services are short lines in South Wales, e.g. Aberbeeg to Abertillery.
 

ivanhoe

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I very much hope to see Caernarfon to Bangor reinstated one day. It has a far better business case than Carmarthen to Aberystwyth.

Reopening to Afon Wen is a bit more questionable. But I suspect that even that scheme would work out to be more viable than Carmarthen - Aberystwyth.

Only a through route from Bangor to Porthmadog would make sense. Bangor to Canaerfon I would imagine has little business case. I could be wrong though!
 

Harbornite

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Only a through route from Bangor to Porthmadog would make sense. Bangor to Canaerfon I would imagine has little business case. I could be wrong though!

Surely you would want to serve Caernarfon because it's one of the hubs of the eastern Llyn.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
There is no realistic prospect of reopening rural rail lines in Wales, or elsewhere in Great Britain/Ireland, except for freight lines to access mineral deposits (and deliver them to ports). If the UK's financial position deteriorates as expected post Brexit, some rural rail lines may actually need to close as the subsidies may become unaffordable. Expect those lines serving non-Tory held seats to be targeted.

The only realistic possible re-openings in Wales for passenger services are short lines in South Wales, e.g. Aberbeeg to Abertillery.

I doubt we'll see closures. Reopenings can happen, look at the borders and possibly the tavistock branch.
 

krus_aragon

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The only realistic possible re-openings in Wales for passenger services are short lines in South Wales, e.g. Aberbeeg to Abertillery.

I don't agree that South Wales has the monopoly on short, viable, potential re-openings. Bangor-Caernarfon and Bangor-Llangefni both qualify in my book.

I agree that long, rural routes, such as the thread title, are unrealistic in the foreseeable future.
 

Greenback

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Only a through route from Bangor to Porthmadog would make sense. Bangor to Canaerfon I would imagine has little business case. I could be wrong though!

Bangor and Caernarfon are the two biggest towns in the area. Caernarfon is a hub for Eastern Lleyn as has already been said. It is a prime destination for tourists, and, in terms, of business case I think it will be the best that there is out of all the reopenings being discussed in this thread.
 

Western Lord

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Bangor and Caernarfon are the two biggest towns in the area. Caernarfon is a hub for Eastern Lleyn as has already been said. It is a prime destination for tourists, and, in terms, of business case I think it will be the best that there is out of all the reopenings being discussed in this thread.

Caernarfon station site has been built on and the trackbed elsewhere has been submerged under road improvements. Reinstatement would be horrendously costly.
 

MarkyT

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Caernarfon station site has been built on and the trackbed elsewhere has been submerged under road improvements. Reinstatement would be horrendously costly.

In Caernarfon, a simple single track standard gauge terminal like that proposed for Portishead need not take a huge tract of land, and it could be built on the grassy bank between the council and Morrisons car parks with little impact on total numbers of spaces. It might be possible to squeeze the standard gauge line behind the Morrisons service station with some small modfications to the canopy rather than a complete demolition.

A corresponding WHR extension along Crown Street could have a terminal occupying part of the car park the other side of Balaclava Road, so no new level crossings would be required at all in the town centre. The two stations could be linked by a new pedestrian crossing over the road. The Crown Street route along the old railway alignment hast safeguarded the route from ad hoc property development which would be much more difficult to remove than a quiet local road which itself has no property accesses onto it. The formation is wide enough to accomodate a low speed narrow gauge track alongside a pedestrian / cycle path.

Even a 30 minute interval service along a branch from Bangor could be attractive due to speed potential and most importantly reliability of journey time at busy times. I agree there are some major and expensive obstacles to overcome on the remainder of a reinstated route, particularly getting through Y Felinheli, but a new station could be incorporated there as well as at Parc Menai that could act as a parkway railhead and serve the local employment opportunities around there. A service on the branch could extend beyond Bangor picking up the local calls further along the coast, more useful for more people than those trains crossing over the Menai to Anglesey. The A55 crossing, although expensive, should be possible as the road is in a cutting, so an overbridge could be built with little disruption. Expensive I'm sure, but no rerouting of a major road for construction as in Edinburgh for the Borders Railway. If there was a passing loop at Parc Menai and every train stopped there at a staggered platform arrangement, a low speed locally monitored crossing (ABCL) over the estate access road might be practical and safe.

A branch could be signalled with modular low cost colour lights and axle counters like Borders and Exeter - Salsibury. The big opportunity would be to combine the work with North Wales coast resignalling when the reconfigured track layouts etc can all be carried out together to save money and disruption. The line is currently controlled by a series of local steam age signalboxes that will need replacing eventually. I guess control could go to Cardiff ROC, but whilst that panders to political considerations, operationally it would be much more sensible to put the whole route including the new branch in whichever ROC will manage the North West of England including the Chester area.

If money is to be spent on any rail reopenings at all, then a short branch from Bangor to Caernarfon would probably be many times the BCR of a long straggling route through rural Carmarthenshire and Caredigion.
 
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Bald Rick

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If money is to be spent on any rail reopenings at all, then a short branch from Bangor to Caernarfon would probably be many times the BCR of a long straggling route through rural Carmarthenshire and Caredigion.

Many times a negative BCR is still negative.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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You do realise it is just the Plaid (and all Welsh parties to be fair) effort to make sure that the gravy train of subsidies to Wales continues, from Westminster if not the EU?
Westminster has not said anything about the post-Brexit settlement (except that I see Mr Brexit himself (David Davis) has said the Barnett Formula will stay).
The future situation, as I see it, is that Cardiff will get to decide what to spend its devolved transport money on (which may or may not include reopening basket case routes), and they are just tub-thumping to make sure they get a bigger cake.
Anyway, they won't be able to blame Brussels.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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Bangor and Caernarfon are the two biggest towns in the area. Caernarfon is a hub for Eastern Lleyn as has already been said. It is a prime destination for tourists, and, in terms, of business case I think it will be the best that there is out of all the reopenings being discussed in this thread.

But Caernarfon already has an established rail attraction that caters for the tourists.
 

MarkyT

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But Caernarfon already has an established rail attraction that caters for the tourists.

I think he's suggesting a means of getting them there by other means than private car rather than providing a nice ride into the mountains once they've arrived.
 

ChiefPlanner

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I believe the "Cardiff Metro" is costed at about £3 BN - yes Billion ......

Any war chest that the WG might have stashed needs to go into a very high interest Bank Account then !

(pause for dramatic / ironic laughter)

Having even a positive BCR is excellent - but at the end of the day you need real cash or loans....
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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I think he's suggesting a means of getting them there by other means than private car rather than providing a nice ride into the mountains once they've arrived.

I was fully aware of what our revered moderator said (who must incidentally be an awfully nice person, as we both are followers of Rugby Union). I am quite interested what railway stations will offer a DIRECT rail service to Caernarfon (noting the nightmare of changing with a long connectional wait) and the day returns costs by rail compared to car travel. You still have to travel to your railway station of departure, possibly incurring parking costs there. Unless, as the old adage says.....You live above your station...:D

The problem is, when coming from the Chester direction to there, the A55 and the A55 tunnel under the river at Conwy make road travel far easier than what I remember the road journey taking in the early 1960's.

Another advantage of road travel is that if a sudden inclination takes your fancy to make an intermediate visit, then as they say ...."The world's your oyster". I must have lost track of the times when my good lady wife, at the wheel of the Range Rover, suddenly said..."Let's call in at (Bodnant Gardens/Beaumaris/ Conwy, etc) for a bite to eat"...:roll:
 

edwin_m

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The problem is, when coming from the Chester direction to there, the A55 and the A55 tunnel under the river at Conwy make road travel far easier than what I remember the road journey taking in the early 1960's.

Another advantage of road travel is that if a sudden inclination takes your fancy to make an intermediate visit, then as they say ...."The world's your oyster". I must have lost track of the times when my good lady wife, at the wheel of the Range Rover, suddenly said..."Let's call in at (Bodnant Gardens/Beaumaris/ Conwy, etc) for a bite to eat"...:roll:

That sort of thing could be said of many rail re-openings and if taken to its logical conclusion (Beeching, Serpell) is an argument to close the whole network. It's a matter of degree - is the rail option attractive to enough people to make it worthwhile? Not to mention the benefit to those who are unable to drive for health or financial reasons, and the growing problem of traffic congestion. When you come back along the A55 remember to avoid the convoy of Irish trucks that leaves Holyhead shortly after ferry arrival times!
 

6Gman

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As someone with 6G (Llandudno Junction) in my username I have connections to Wales and its railways. I'm also old enough to have travelled over both the Bangor - Afon Wen and Aberystwyth - Carmarthen railways.

So ...

1. Yes, Carmarthen - Aber could be reopened, but the benefit balanced against the cost seems low, low, low. I've seen £750M quoted as a potential cost. There are surely far better ways of spending that sort of money?

2. Bangor - Caernarfon wouldn't close these days. But it did. Reinstatement would have its difficulties but could - arguably - be worthwhile. A recast North Wales timetable might include an hourly Llandudno-Caernarfon (connecting off a Manchester - Llandudno at the Junction perhaps). By picking up the Conwy, Pen and Ll'fechan stops this could allow the Holyhead trains to be speeded up?

3. Crossing Caernarfon would be a major task.

4. If that crossing could be achieved reinstatement to Afon Wen would be ok, but it's thin country traffic-wise. And if you reached Pwllheli then abstraction from the Cambrian could be an issue.

So, in summary, it would be lovely to see the lot reinstated but the cost would be huge and the benefit limited.
 

Bald Rick

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BCRs are never negative - just below 1.

Oh I'm afraid BCRs can be very much negative.

A BCR isn't a weighing up of all the positive elements against all the negative elements.

It weighs up specific elements that are regarded as benefits, and another set of specific elements that are regarded as costs. You can have positive and negative benefits, and positive and negative costs.

So, for example, if you reopened a line that had a very, very small revenue opportunity, but also extended average net journey times compared to the alternatives, and perhaps increased CO2 compared to alternatives (which a 2 car DMU certainly would do given the expected loadings) then the 'benefit' will be negative. The cost, obviously, is positive. And as we all know a negative divided by a positive is a negative.
 

TheKnightWho

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Oh I'm afraid BCRs can be very much negative.

A BCR isn't a weighing up of all the positive elements against all the negative elements.

It weighs up specific elements that are regarded as benefits, and another set of specific elements that are regarded as costs. You can have positive and negative benefits, and positive and negative costs.

So, for example, if you reopened a line that had a very, very small revenue opportunity, but also extended average net journey times compared to the alternatives, and perhaps increased CO2 compared to alternatives (which a 2 car DMU certainly would do given the expected loadings) then the 'benefit' will be negative. The cost, obviously, is positive. And as we all know a negative divided by a positive is a negative.

That is... confusing at best. Why is it done like that?
 

Bald Rick

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That is... confusing at best. Why is it done like that?

So that everything is directly comparable.

All categories of benefit are on one side of the equation, and all categories of cost on the other.

For example time savings are always a benefit. But if a project extends times, it is a negative benefit.
 

TheKnightWho

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So that everything is directly comparable.

All categories of benefit are on one side of the equation, and all categories of cost on the other.

For example time savings are always a benefit. But if a project extends times, it is a negative benefit.

Surely just shove all the positives on one side and all the negatives on the other? Have a fixed set of categories equalised across all projects, put on either side depending on whether it puts it in the black or red. BCR of 0 if there are no benefits, and a BCR of infinity would be implausible under such a system.

I suppose this is all hypothetical though.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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When you come back along the A55 remember to avoid the convoy of Irish trucks that leaves Holyhead shortly after ferry arrival times!

I am sure there are many time windows when these truck convoys are not seen on the A55, where anyone with a modicum of sense can avail themselves of the timing period of these convoys.

Any idea of the frequency of these proposed train times and destinations that will also be available to prospective rail travellers returning from Caernarfon, who have decided to travel by rail than their cars? Also, where in Caernarfon is the proposed railway station?
 

GarethJohn

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The benefits of opening Aber - Camarthen is not just to those within its immediate vicinity It will also benefit large parts of Montgomeryshire & Gwynedd who wish to travel to Swansea (which is the main reason I and many would like this line built) and Pembrokeshire. the Bus services are not adequate certainly beyond Camarthen how many communities does the Bus serve to connect you with a Paddington Train?and.
If it's run at a reasonable speed it could even be beneficial to passengers at Shrewsbury if it is quicker journey than going via Cardiff. If nobody sees a point in re-opening this line then the same thing could be said about keeping the Heart Of Wales that serves a similar purpose. Wouldn't Buses be better than the Train along it's route?
As North West Wales deals a lot with Merseyside and Manchester there also needs to be better access between the Cambrian Coast & North Wales lines, Has there ever been a study to connect them at Blaenau Ffestiniog? A significant and reason could be put forward for improving the Conwy Valley line? Narrow gauge was built to serve Slate Quarries this need is no longer present. How much use can be used of Trawsfynnedd's old line?
 

Gareth Marston

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I am sure there are many time windows when these truck convoys are not seen on the A55, where anyone with a modicum of sense can avail themselves of the timing period of these convoys.

Any idea of the frequency of these proposed train times and destinations that will also be available to prospective rail travellers returning from Caernarfon, who have decided to travel by rail than their cars? Also, where in Caernarfon is the proposed railway station?

Paul not living in Wales you are fotrtunley exempt from the constant screaming hysteria about delays on the A55 and how "upgrading" it should be a national priority. Let alone having to travel to a destination beyond it.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
As someone with 6G (Llandudno Junction) in my username I have connections to Wales and its railways. I'm also old enough to have travelled over both the Bangor - Afon Wen and Aberystwyth - Carmarthen railways.

So ...

1. Yes, Carmarthen - Aber could be reopened, but the benefit balanced against the cost seems low, low, low. I've seen £750M quoted as a potential cost. There are surely far better ways of spending that sort of money?

2. Bangor - Caernarfon wouldn't close these days. But it did. Reinstatement would have its difficulties but could - arguably - be worthwhile. A recast North Wales timetable might include an hourly Llandudno-Caernarfon (connecting off a Manchester - Llandudno at the Junction perhaps). By picking up the Conwy, Pen and Ll'fechan stops this could allow the Holyhead trains to be speeded up?

3. Crossing Caernarfon would be a major task.

4. If that crossing could be achieved reinstatement to Afon Wen would be ok, but it's thin country traffic-wise. And if you reached Pwllheli then abstraction from the Cambrian could be an issue.

So, in summary, it would be lovely to see the lot reinstated but the cost would be huge and the benefit limited.

Footfall on the Cambrian north of Harlech is **** poor as the natural direction of travel is Caernsrfon/ Bangor I'm not worried a bout abstraction if Afon W en is reopened.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Any idea of the frequency of these proposed train times and destinations that will also be available to prospective rail travellers returning from Caernarfon, who have decided to travel by rail than their cars? Also, where in Caernarfon is the proposed railway station?

Just to be devil's advocate, if Caernarfon reopened there would then be a debate about services.
My prediction would be most services would run to Caernarfon, with Holyhead served only at ferry times (a bit like Milford Haven/Fishguard).
In the 1960s, the boot was on the other foot, with Holyhead (for Dublin) the dominant destination, so BR shut the Caernarfon branch.
I'm not sure these days.
 

krus_aragon

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Even a 30 minute interval service along a branch from Bangor could be attractive...

Do bear in mind that Bangor doesn't currently see a 30 minute interval service on the mainline, so expecting that level of service on a new branch might be ambitious.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Many times a negative BCR is still negative.

Many times a negative is a greater negative, arithmetically speaking (e.g. 2*-4=-8), so what you're describing there is many times worse, not better.
 

Harbornite

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Any idea of the frequency of these proposed train times and destinations that will also be available to prospective rail travellers returning from Caernarfon, who have decided to travel by rail than their cars? Also, where in Caernarfon is the proposed railway station?

Good questions. The trackbed through Caernarfon is currently occupied by the Welsh Highland Railway, so a parkway-type station might be needed on the edge of town on an alternative route. Either that or kick the WHR out which won't be happening, fortunately.
 

johnnychips

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For local traffic on the suggested reopened railway, I always think Bangor Station is a bit of a walk from the centre - not dreadful but enough. And presumably a new Caernarfon station would be on the edge. With all the walking it'd be quicker to get the bus. However that doesn't apply to travellers to Caernarfon from elsewhere.
 
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