HLOS for CP6 (2019-24)

[absolutelymilk]

The next HLOS should be out in June, what do people think will be in it? I would like to see MML electrification to Sheffield (and on to York?), East-West rail, electrification of the GW branches which were deferred and electrification from Crewe/Warrington to Chester.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The next HLOS should be out in June, what do people think will be in it? I would like to see MML electrification to Sheffield (and on to York?), East-West rail, electrification of the GW branches which were deferred and electrification from Crewe/Warrington to Chester.

To be truthful I would love to see any electrification in. I have grave doubts

1) Yes I hope Kettering to at least Derby and Nottingham (I hope to Sheffield also but have my doubts)
2) Didcot - Oxford - has to be a no-brainer
3) Filton triangle - Bristol Temple Meads
4) Bristol Temple Meads via Bath
5) Doubling Ipswich - Felixtowe and wiring
6) Wigan - Bolton
7) Parts of TransPennine - I doubt they will do all
8) Make a start on Calder Valley - Preston - Colne

 

[snowball]

I think if we get all the England and Wales electrification schemes once promised for CP5, plus continued steady progess in Scotland, we'll be doing well.

We're more likely to get some or all of those than anything new out of the blue, because some of the feasibilty and design work will have been done.

I think we may get more on the MML and Transpennine than Gralistair says, and Windermere. But I doubt we'll get anything on the Calder Valley.

Swansea would be a good prize but probably not CP6.

 

[D365]

Any lines that would be suitable for soaking up some of the soon to be off-lease Class 321s, really.

 

[Noddy]

Bristol-Bromsgrove/Birmingham. I'm not expecting it to happen but that's what I'd like to see.

 

[The Ham]

What I would "like" to be in it is lots of electrification schemes and small scale projects that improve non London bound flows (i.e. Knuckle) as well as at least progress on projects like Crossrail 2 and junction improvements on the SWML (i.e. Woking and Basingstoke).

What do I think is more likely is a electrification budget which NR has to use in the best way possible, meaning any overspend results in less miles built and mostly a lot of finishing off CP5 projects. There may still be a few political electrification projects but probably fairly limited.

 

[The Planner]

Not a lot I would suspect.

 

[quantinghome]

Does anyone know what input Railnorth will have on the HLOS process?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I would hope for some extensions linked to HS2.
Specifically Crewe-Chester.
Otherwise, it's sticking with Voyagers on the slow route, or change at Crewe just like 1966 all over again.
You'd also hope Rail North would have some influence on extending the local schemes around Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool etc.
Wolverhampton-Shrewsbury would be a good shout too.

 

[coppercapped]

In my post #762 in the MML Electrification thread I wrote

But if I am reading the omens correctly the future HLOSs will not be prescriptive but will specify desired outcomes. So, for example, it is possible that the HLOS for the MML will require a reduction in operating costs and journey times and leave the industry to work out a way to achieve it within the limit of the Statement of Funds Available.

Equally there is likely to be a separate HLOS, or at least a separate chapter or annex, for each of Network Rail's routes.

After the Shaw Report, the reclassification of NR's debt and Network Rail's devolution - things are not going to be the same.

As the emphasis is now with NR's Routes to work closely with the TOCs and FOCs using their patches to work out what needs to be done I'm not expecting the DfT to publish lists of lines to be electrified.

 

[rebmcr]

I expect half of it will be "catch up on CP5 backlog"...

 

[snowball]

I expect half of it will be "catch up on CP5 backlog"...

I would have thought more than half of it will be that.

 

[Ianno87]

In my post #762 in the MML Electrification thread I wrote



As the emphasis is now with NR's Routes to work closely with the TOCs and FOCs using their patches to work out what needs to be done I'm not expecting the DfT to publish lists of lines to be electrified.

*Technically*, for the 2012 HLOS, DfT published a list of "illustrative" infrastructure schemes to meet the "Output" requirement; these schemes were not the HLOS itself (but did form part of the document as a sort-of 'suggestion')

It is correct in that the HLOS should not be (and is not) specifying a shopping list of infrastructure (which is not an "output"). It should be specifying the output that DfT wishes to 'buy' in terms of train services (frequency, journey time, etc.) possible on the network infrastructure, although in reality most will relate to a feasible infrastructure proposition (or propositions) as outlined in Network Rail's Route Studies.

 

[ainsworth74]

I would have thought more than half of it will be that.

Agreed. I would expect that the vast majority of it will be stuff carried over from CP5 things like the rest of the GWML electrification project (including the Valley Lines) and probably the rest of the MML as well. I doubt there will be much that is 'new' within the HLOS for CP6.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Agreed. I would expect that the vast majority of it will be stuff carried over from CP5 things like the rest of the GWML electrification project (including the Valley Lines) and probably the rest of the MML as well. I doubt there will be much that is 'new' within the HLOS for CP6.

I actually think there will be nothing 'new' at all.

My main reason is that quite a lot of what has been left over from CP5 is in the process of having its scope completely remapped. Take Transpennine, that is now going to most likely be bigger with more money required. So that will absorb a lot of any money for new stuff. Although in effect it will be new stuff just added onto existing announcements.

Quite a few other schemes are in a similar position. Or simply that the money required to do them is more than originally thought, again eating into anything new.

Anything that is actually new is likely to come at the expense of something which will be removed completely.

That is my opinion anyway.

 

[59CosG95]

Bristol-Bromsgrove/Birmingham. I'm not expecting it to happen but that's what I'd like to see.

I'd like to see it happen as much as you, perhaps even via Worcester as well (Stoke Works Jct-Shrub Hill-Abbotswood Jct), but it seems about as vain a hope as President Trump saying something vaguely sensible on Twitter!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Last time round, Network Rail produced an "Initial Industry Plan" to inform the Periodic Review process, which was an amalgam of their views plus those of ATOC (now RDG).
I'm sure it appeared before now in the PR13 process.
The draft HLOS/SoFAs are due from DfT and SG in May/June.
The DfT also has to determine how it is going to regulate NR in the future.
There are potentially big changes possible, but we seem to be running out of time for them to take effect in the PR18 process.
Supposedly it will be the Route plans, and the necessary funding, which will drive thinking from now on.
This is the ORR timetable:
http://orr.gov.uk/what-and-how-we-r...il/periodic-review-2018/timetable-and-process

 

[HowardGWR]

I would have thought more than half of it will be that.

Well, if the projected cost increases on the Portishead project are anything to go by, perhaps we should not be so optimistic.

 

[matacaster]

If you don't want to do something, the simplest way of avoiding it is to commission a feasibility study including bogus numbers. You rarely get caught. Best example of getting caught was £6m estimate by BR for ribblehead viaduct repairs.

 

[MarkRedon]

According to Construction News https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/...bn-rail-improvement-wishlist/10019078.article [paywall], TfL has approved a £3.6bn wishlist covering the rail improvements they think necessary in CP6.

The document which was input to the planning meeting which approved the wishlist is at http://content.tfl.gov.uk/13-hlos-tfl-proposals.pdf.

In section 3.2, the document notes that:

Network Rail and the train and freight operating companies have jointly produced “Initial Industry Advice” to DfT. This sets out the rail industry’s view on priorities and will inform the HLOS.

As already noted upthread, this Initial Industry Advice is not a public document - which it was when CP5 was being planned for.

The TfL document excludes consideration of schemes outside CP6; these include Crossrail 2; thus section 4.2:

Crossrail 2 is our highest priority scheme but its scale and timing means that it is outside the HLOS process.

In section 4.3, TfL states:

The schemes include the metro-isation of services in south and southeast London to deliver higher frequency, simplified service patterns and improved performance. Most of our recommendations focus on south London, where train frequency is significantly lower than in north London with consequential impacts on economic growth.

A summary diagram of the proposals copied from the TfL document (which is public) is viewable at:

 

[The Ham]

According to Construction News https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/...bn-rail-improvement-wishlist/10019078.article [paywall], TfL has approved a £3.6bn wishlist covering the rail improvements they think necessary in CP6.

The document which was input to the planning meeting which approved the wishlist is at http://content.tfl.gov.uk/13-hlos-tfl-proposals.pdf.

In section 3.2, the document notes that:


As already noted upthread, this Initial Industry Advice is not a public document - which it was when CP5 was being planned for.

The TfL document excludes consideration of schemes outside CP6; these include Crossrail 2; thus section 4.2:



In section 4.3, TfL states:


A summary diagram of the proposals copied from the TfL document (which is public) is viewable at:
[url]https://markrogergregory.net/2017-04-14_05-44-08[/url][/QUOTE]

The two things for the SWML that are interesting from that is that a) the southern access to Heathrow is being seriously considered​ and b) the remodeling of Basingstoke and Woking Junctions are being pushed for by TfL (even though they are well outside of TfL's normal area of interest).

 

[TheKnightWho]

The two things for the SWML that are interesting from that is that a) the southern access to Heathrow is being seriously considered​ and b) the remodeling of Basingstoke and Woking Junctions are being pushed for by TfL (even though they are well outside of TfL's normal area of interest).

I suppose if funding them greatly benefits London then it makes sense.

 

[class 9]

I think many of the above suggestions about CP6 are quite optimistic and won't happen.
Network Rail are massively over spending, many of the High Output trains are in the process of being mothballed(HOBC- High Output Ballast Cleaner) this is hundreds of millions of pounds of kit just parked up! All to save money.

 

[snowball]

The current issue of Rail magazine (I think in the interview with Martin Frobisher (not the sailor but the boss of Network Rail's LNW route)) says the Hope Valley capacity improvements (part of the Northern Hub) have slipped into CP6.

(They are awaiting planning authorisation in the form of an Order under the Transport & Works Act.)

 

[D6975]

What's the current status of Neville Hill - Colton Jn?
I seem to remember it was slated for early electrification, but it seems to have slipped off the radar completely.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What's the current status of Neville Hill - Colton Jn?
I seem to remember it was slated for early electrification, but it seems to have slipped off the radar completely.

It's the same as the rest of TP electrification - CP6 supposedly. Also Micklefield-Selby.
I too remember the NR "quick win" notion of doing it first - by Dec 2016 I think, or maybe earlier.
They were even talking of adding L&Y diversionary routes as well.
Fantasy land.
A couple of bridges did get raised, I think.

 

[IanXC]

What's the current status of Neville Hill - Colton Jn?
I seem to remember it was slated for early electrification, but it seems to have slipped off the radar completely.

A very aggressive, both in terms of speed and scope, project is currently underway to clear lineside vegetation and renew fencing, under the banner of "Electrification works".

The ECML power upgrade scheme appears to depend on a new grid access point at Gascoigne Wood. This appears to be required before full Azuma service can commence.

It's the same as the rest of TP electrification - CP6 supposedly. Also Micklefield-Selby.
I too remember the NR "quick win" notion of doing it first - by Dec 2016 I think, or maybe earlier.
They were even talking of adding L&Y diversionary routes as well.
Fantasy land.
A couple of bridges did get raised, I think.

I'll give you 'fantasy land' on L&Y diversionary routes, but we're edging ever closer to the first test scrapes on Neville Hill to Colton/Selby.

 

[WatcherZero]

The rumour is this time around the government is suppressing the Initial Industry Advice (submitted last December) and will only publish it at a later stage as a fait accompli so it cant be lobbied in public/by politicians to include stuff.

As to where we are this was the timetable, ORR made its formal notice of commencement of the review at the end of March (approx. 1 month late) but they are asking that the governments try and keep to the original response deadline of June rather than the statutory 3 months from notice publication of July though.

 

[D6975]

A very aggressive, both in terms of speed and scope, project is currently underway to clear lineside vegetation and renew fencing, under the banner of "Electrification works".

Good to hear that, it's a bit of line that I was very surprised wasn't done when the ECML was electrified, along with Carstairs - Edinburgh. Both no-brainers IMHO. Carstairs did get done afterwards, but the Leeds - York link didn't.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I'll give you 'fantasy land' on L&Y diversionary routes, but we're edging ever closer to the first test scrapes on Neville Hill to Colton/Selby.

The fantasy was that they could "do it quickly" and even widen the scope.
Good that things are moving forward.
But I thought we were waiting for a new improved "Plan" for the whole route, by Dec 2017 (GRIP 3), with completion 2022?