Creation of class 230 DEMUs from ex-LU D78s by Vivarail

[Bletchleyite]

Seems "wmtrains" haven't actually ordered any yet:

"We are considering the possibility of using these for this line as they are very suitable for the 55mph line speed and the increase in capacity the two-car trains will bring, however this is not yet confirmed. "

(from the staff Q&A doc)

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Seems "wmtrains" haven't actually ordered any yet:

"We are considering the possibility of using these for this line as they are very suitable for the 55mph line speed and the increase in capacity the two-car trains will bring, however this is not yet confirmed. "

(from the staff Q&A doc)

Now we are in December 2017 and taking what this says above as factual, then what are the actual orders that Vivarail stated they had, but never disclosed details of, quite some months ago.

 

[DarloRich]

Don’t know what the Bletchley lot do to them, the LM 153’s are almost bulletproof on the branches up here.

Much to the annoyance of many traincrew though.

On LM on elsewhere?

No doubt the c230 could be stabled and supported locally at Bletchley rather than the current long slog back to Tyseley for the 150/153 stock. I wonder whether an overnight charge would provide enough power for the day service on the Marston Vale and whether use of regenerative braking and 10 minute top up from OHLE at Bedford and Bletchley could be used to recharge the batteries ?

It would be a pity if the trains had to use diesel engines, but then I'm not sure to what version LM has committed.

I would rather we had a solid diesel engined train rather than a fancy battery that hasn't been proven yet.

I do wonder how much total finance in terms of all project overheads and staffing costs, additional to the purchase costs of all those units, has been incurred by Vivarail on this Class 230 project since the date of its inception?

I am neither interested in either the capitalisation nor the shareholdings of the company. What my posting mentioned was the total of the various types of expenditure that Vivarail had incurred since the formation of the company that were mentioned in my posting. It was be either the leasing or sale of Class 230 units that will be offset against those total costs to make a true project costing evaluation.

Unlike some people who are enthused by emotive words as "project innovation", I view any commercial project on pure hard and fast financial facts to evaluate any project that has been established and have always used this as my benchmark thinking in the thirty-plus years that I spent in field of Senior Management.

I have always viewed the Vivarail Class 230 project in that particular commercial light.

All I will say to you is I am less than impressed by this so-called "innovative" project in the time period in which it has been operational. If this is not a straightforward business operation, then why did the company behind the capitalisation of Vivarail decide to commit funds to it originally. It was never said to be anything but a commercial project when first launched and never an innovative R & D scheme.

Now we are in December 2017 and taking what this says above as factual, then what are the actual orders that Vivarail stated they had, but never disclosed details of, quite some months ago.

Why does this company performance bother you so much? It seems you will take a perverse pleasure in seeing it fail. Why?

The company must have investors who are happy and have a projected benefit that brings a return for those investors. If that doesn't happen the company will fail and the investors lose their money. Unless it is your money they are spending what does it matter. Surely all that benchmarking in thirty-plus years spent in field of Senior Management have taught you that...................................

Seems "wmtrains" haven't actually ordered any yet:

"We are considering the possibility of using these for this line as they are very suitable for the 55mph line speed and the increase in capacity the two-car trains will bring, however this is not yet confirmed. "

(from the staff Q&A doc)

I cant see many other options for LM NEWCO or Vivarail!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Why does this company performance bother you so much? It seems you will take a perverse pleasure in seeing it fail. Why? The company must have investors who are happy and have a projected benefit that brings a return for those investors. If that doesn't happen the company will fail and the investors lose their money. Unless it is your money they are spending what does it matter. Surely all that benchmarking in thirty-plus years spent in field of Senior Management have taught you that...................................

The American capitalisation by Railroad Development Corporation seems to have been based upon the premise of a sizeable number of Class 230 units being produced from the LU stock that they purchased which the situation that prevailed at that time in the Northern franchise. That possibility, over the time period of this project, diminished by the month.

You make derisive comment about my time period in my role at the consultancy, but if you thought that we never looked upon the projects of other companies in terms of ongoing project evaluation discussions, then you are indeed sadly mistaken. As such, although now seven years into my retirement, I still view matters in such a light whilst noting the American capitalisation of Vivarail.

 

[bastien]

I still view matters in such a light whilst noting the American capitalisation of Vivarail.

Yes but:
Why?
And why?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Yes but:
Why?
And why?

At the very start of this project, I voiced my views upon this thread and in the years and months that have so elapsed since then, I have yet to see any final test approvals to allow Class 230 units being fully accepted as yet to run in passenger service nor have I seen any reporting of major sales or leasing contracts being made.

 

[bastien]

At the very start of this project, I voiced my views upon this thread and in the years and months that have so elapsed since then, I have yet to see any final test approvals to allow Class 230 units being fully accepted as yet to run in passenger service nor have I seen any reporting of major sales or leasing contracts being made.

Good for you. Doesn't really answer either question, though, does it?

 

[Mikey C]

To me the whole point (and indeed the only point) of the whole Class 230 project was to provide quick and cheap DMUs to cover the short term capacity issues caused by lack of new DMUs and questionable long term future for DMUs with the electrification programme.

THREE years later none are near entering service yet, indeed the new Class 195s will enter service at a similar time. Meanwhile the Class 769 project, despite starting much later, will produce much more flexible and capable EDMUs, which are likely to enter service before the Class 230s.

Timing is sometimes everything, and I fear that Vivarail have missed their window of opportunity.

 

[47802]

To me the whole point (and indeed the only point) of the whole Class 230 project was to provide quick and cheap DMUs to cover the short term capacity issues caused by lack of new DMUs and questionable long term future for DMUs with the electrification programme.

THREE years later none are near entering service yet, indeed the new Class 195s will enter service at a similar time. Meanwhile the Class 769 project, despite starting much later, will produce much more flexible and capable EDMUs, which are likely to enter service before the Class 230s.

Timing is sometimes everything, and I fear that Vivarail have missed their window of opportunity.

Indeed although given the form of old trains that have been significantly modified or upgraded in recent years I don't expect the 769's to enter service anytime soon.

 

[squizzler]

Maybe the issue is with Vivarail being a commercial venture? Many people happily recall anecdotes of underfunded British Rail being able to play poor hands in an innovative way to produce new products during the 1980's, and perhaps resent that a private firm might do the same thing?

 

[bastien]

Maybe the issue is with Vivarail being a commercial venture?

Yes, and one with [Benny Hill stage-wink] American money behind it!

 

[47802]

Maybe the issue is with Vivarail being a commercial venture? Many people happily recall anecdotes of underfunded British Rail being able to play poor hands in an innovative way to produce new products during the 1980's, and perhaps resent that a private firm might do the same thing?

No the issue is that's its a second rate product in many respects an era when people are looking for a significant improvement over the cheap and cheerful BR era stuff.

 

[A0wen]

No the issue is that's its a second rate product in many respects an era when people are looking for a significant improvement over the cheap and cheerful BR era stuff.

In what way is it a 'second rate' product?

It's re-using the bulk of the D78s running gear - the only change is to provide some form of electrical power, which is being done by a gen-set.

From there it will be a capable 60mph DMU with better acceleration than either the Pacers or Sprinters, a better ride than the Pacers and should be good for 20 years use.

OK - it's not a 'brand new' train. But it's sufficient refurbished to make it as good as. And most of the alternatives are equally unproven at this time.

For lines like the Marston Vale - and a few others I can think of, it looks like a sensible, cost effective replacement to life expired or near life expired Pacers and potentially Sprinters as well.

 

[DarloRich]

The American capitalisation by Railroad Development Corporation seems to have been based upon the premise of a sizeable number of Class 230 units being produced from the LU stock that they purchased which the situation that prevailed at that time in the Northern franchise. That possibility, over the time period of this project, diminished by the month.

They, clearly, seem comfortable with the security of the investment at this stage. Perhaps they will win in the end. Who knows?

You make derisive comment about my time period in my role at the consultancy, but if you thought that we never looked upon the projects of other companies in terms of ongoing project evaluation discussions, then you are indeed sadly mistaken. As such, although now seven years into my retirement, I still view matters in such a light whilst noting the American capitalisation of Vivarail.

That is, literally, my job.

 

[47802]

In what way is it a 'second rate' product?

It's re-using the bulk of the D78s running gear - the only change is to provide some form of electrical power, which is being done by a gen-set.

From there it will be a capable 60mph DMU with better acceleration than either the Pacers or Sprinters, a better ride than the Pacers and should be good for 20 years use.

OK - it's not a 'brand new' train. But it's sufficient refurbished to make it as good as. And most of the alternatives are equally unproven at this time.

For lines like the Marston Vale - and a few others I can think of, it looks like a sensible, cost effective replacement to life expired or near life expired Pacers and potentially Sprinters as well.

It does not offer the passenger environment you would expect from a new Air-Conditioned train and from an operator perspective it doesn't offer the flexibility of even Railbus or 150 with its Low top speed and lack of ability to work in multiple with anything else, but then we have debated this for the past 187 pages, the Characteristics of the Marston Vale may make reasonably suitable for a 230 but I doubt there are many others. Is WMT likely to buy these trains for other routes the answer is No because they are buying new CAF units

 

[northwichcat]

Is WMT likely to buy these trains for other routes the answer is No because they are buying new CAF units

If Abellio came to an arrangement where they could keep the 3 x 150s in exchange for Northern getting 3 alternative sets, I imagine the option would be taken up. However, Northern wanted all the 150/1s to keep the subsidy down so getting DfT to sign that off may not be possible!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

That is, literally, my job.

I am well aware, from our numerous website discussions over the years, of your role in life and sincerely respect your views, so I do wonder why you see my long-held commercial views on this particular project, being akin in my minds-eye to the "new lamps for old" scenario in the pantomime "Aladdin" featuring Adrian Shooter in the role of "Genie of the Lamp", as not being a matter that can be just viewed as any other "unusual" commercial venture and looked at in the financially cold and hard light of any other commercial project.

Just because a highly respected member of the railway fraternity was chosen to lead such a project, it does not follow that all his expertise in railway matters is a guarantee of project success.

 

[philthetube]

No the issue is that's its a second rate product in many respects an era when people are looking for a significant improvement over the cheap and cheerful BR era stuff.

We don't know that

 

[Harpers Tate]

Re-used/old/recycled "cast off" (etc): Irrelevant. The vast majority of "new" Northern's fleet will be exactly this. Same goes for many other regional TOCs. 150's are dire trains now and will still be dire when they have been re-tarted.
Passenger environment/air conditioned (etc): Irrelevant. See above.
Unable to work "with" anything else: Irrelevant. This is also true of other types of rolling stock, and it doesn't stop them from being used.
60mph: Irrelevant on far, far more locations/routes/diagrams than appears to be the accepted "wisdom" here.

 

[Bletchleyite]

We don't know that

People on the Marston Vale are looking for a reliable service above all else. Yes, Class 172s would be nice, but realistically they aren't going to get them, it's going to be 230s or single 153s on an odd timetable.

 

[DarloRich]

I am well aware, from our numerous website discussions over the years, of your role in life and sincerely respect your views, so I do wonder why you see my long-held commercial views on this particular project, being akin in my minds-eye to the "new lamps for old" scenario in the pantomime "Aladdin" featuring Adrian Shooter in the role of "Genie of the Lamp", as not being a matter that can be just viewed as any other "unusual" commercial venture and looked at in the financially cold and hard light of any other commercial project.

Just because a highly respected member of the railway fraternity was chosen to lead such a project, it does not follow that all his expertise in railway matters is a guarantee of project success.

I agree entirely and take the point about the upcycling aspect of all this. I am certainly not blinded by the fact someone has a good record in a certain industry. It IS an unusual commercial venture I wouldn't have invested my own money in the company BUT the initiator of this project obviously did enough to persuade others to invest in it. They obviously have a higher risk appetite than many would be prepared to carry. Those investors obviously remain comfortable with the security of their investment and the potential return to continue funding the company. Obviously that tolerance will only continue for the period of time they continue to believe a return on their investment is possible/probable.

Without knowing what those return projections are and their timescales for realsisation it is very hard to look form the outside and decide if the investment is worth it. The company will soon fold if it isn't!

 

[keith1879]

It seems almost beyond doubt that the original plan/hope of mass sales(perhaps >50 trains??) will not be realised. As things stand there are a lot of sunk costs which can only be recovered (and perhaps only partially) with some small orders. The original purchase cost of the trains can presumably be recouped more or less with a sale for scrap. If it had been clear 3 or 4 years ago that new DMUs would be available and encouraged in bids then I doubt if this scheme would ever have been started.

 

[47802]

Re-used/old/recycled "cast off" (etc): Irrelevant. The vast majority of "new" Northern's fleet will be exactly this. Same goes for many other regional TOCs. 150's are dire trains now and will still be dire when they have been re-tarted.
Passenger environment/air conditioned (etc): Irrelevant. See above.
Unable to work "with" anything else: Irrelevant. This is also true of other types of rolling stock, and it doesn't stop them from being used.
60mph: Irrelevant on far, far more locations/routes/diagrams than appears to be the accepted "wisdom" here.

The things that you dismiss as irrelevant are clearly not so, however all this stuff has been discussed at length previously so I'm not going to bother with a point by point long winded reply, except to while the 150's are not brilliant this are certainly not the worst train in the world and I fail to see how this unproven ex metro train with less capacity would be an improvement on a 150.

 

[B&I]

I was wondering about the idea of charging off overheads from a train that only has third rail pickup.

I have an admiration for what Vivarail are trying to do, however I do feel they may have backed the wrong horse so to speak. Porterbrook are in the process of doing the same thing that Vivarail aimed todo with a few 319s. (slinging diesel generators underneath them) Vivarail have now moved it on with this approach of 'flexibility', but the testbed they are using is still an old underground unit that apparently requires significant work to bring it up to mainline standards. Add to that there is surely nothing stopping Porterbrook again doing the same thing with an off lease 319 once proof of concept with the diesel generators is done. It is great being an R&D company, but generally you need someone to pay you for that R&D rather than having a competitor just copy your ideas on a more marketable product.

That said, I don't think Marston Vale will be the only place Vivarail units turn up. The use of them has been mooted for the Borderlands line, particularly if it allowed an increase in frequency and extension around the Merseyrail Wirral line loop. Having not seen any Firm proposals about the next W&B franchise, and the devolution of tendering these services to Cardiff, plus the political complexities of cross border / England only services, it has been almost impossible to work out if this is a genuine possibility or just noise.

Wasn't there some safety issue about running vehicles carrying fuel round the Wirral Line loop, even if they were running on electric at the time?

Even if these trains didn't run through to Liverpool, they would be a cheap way of creating more frequent 'add on' services ro the Merseyrail network proper to encourage more use on the connecting lines, and eventually sufficient demand to justify electrification and integration into Merseyrail. Borderlands, Kirkby (or Skelmersdale) to Wigan, and (subject ro being able to run on the last bit along the WCML) Ormskirk-Preston could benefit from this approach.

 

[Peter Sarf]

The things that you dismiss as irrelevant are clearly not so, however all this stuff has been discussed at length previously so I'm not going to bother with a point by point long winded reply, except to while the 150's are not brilliant this are certainly not the worst train in the world and I fail to see how this unproven ex metro train with less capacity would be an improvement on a 150.

If there is a plentiful supply of 150s then the case for the 230s would be weaker. In my view the 230 still has advantages of superior acceleration, ease of maintenance away from depot and the possibility that the interior of the 230 can be better than that of a 150 (depending on what option is chosen of course). Talking of interior specs the 230 might well drive up the standard expected for refurbished 150s.

 

[Clip]

It seems almost beyond doubt that the original plan/hope of mass sales(perhaps >50 trains??) will not be realised. As things stand there are a lot of sunk costs which can only be recovered (and perhaps only partially) with some small orders. The original purchase cost of the trains can presumably be recouped more or less with a sale for scrap. If it had been clear 3 or 4 years ago that new DMUs would be available and encouraged in bids then I doubt if this scheme would ever have been started.

But people are forgetting that they are allowed to build trains in the uk now so could be a stepping stone for them. Of course when they set off on this venture there wasnt any idea that northern were going to be told to buy new trains and as has been discussed too many timea there were suitable routes for them until the OUTRAGED of cheshire and knutsford and a few others who dont frequent these erstwhile pages shouted down anyone who piped up


And with them investing in battery technology here they may also have an eye on selling that tech onwards for a nice little profit too which could be viable in other 'old trains' who knows.

 

[The Ham]

But people are forgetting that they are allowed to build trains in the uk now so could be a stepping stone for them. Of course when they set off on this venture there wasnt any idea that northern were going to be told to buy new trains and as has been discussed too many timea there were suitable routes for them until the OUTRAGED of cheshire and knutsford and a few others who dont frequent these erstwhile pages shouted down anyone who piped up


And with them investing in battery technology here they may also have an eye on selling that tech onwards for a nice little profit too which could be viable in other 'old trains' who knows.

That's the point, the 230's may not be the product that reports the loans, but something else maybe.

However, having said that, even with the current orders of DMU's there could still be enough of a market for short beach line reopenings (Okehampton) or even heritage lines (Swanage) that could allow them to at least break even (I.e. repay their loans plus interest/repay their investors).

 

[Harpers Tate]

....clearly not so....

I see. So, to you, it is clear that
- a 230 is a re-used/old/recycled "cast off" whereas a refurbished 15x is not
- regardless of which interior option an operator might select from the various styles and levels proposed, a 230 nevertheless has an inadequate passenger environment and is not air conditioned (etc) whereas a refurbished 150, 156 is always adequate in all of these respects
- a 230 cannot work "with" other types of train, whereas every other type of train is compatible with each other
- there is an overwhelming need on vast swathes of the likely network for trains to exceed 60mph for long stretches of their route.
I must be missing something.

 

[notlob.divad]

Wasn't there some safety issue about running vehicles carrying fuel round the Wirral Line loop, even if they were running on electric at the time?

Even if these trains didn't run through to Liverpool, they would be a cheap way of creating more frequent 'add on' services ro the Merseyrail network proper to encourage more use on the connecting lines, and eventually sufficient demand to justify electrification and integration into Merseyrail. Borderlands, Kirkby (or Skelmersdale) to Wigan, and (subject ro being able to run on the last bit along the WCML) Ormskirk-Preston could benefit from this approach.

Not that I am aware of, but happy to be shown wrong by those who know better. There is a public health issue with Diesel particulates being released by frequent use of diesel trains. However given diesel engineering trains run through the tunnels at the moment, even at times when the platforms are open, I fail to see why what is essentially a bi-mode could not run around the loop line with the engines shut down running off the 3rd rail supply.

 

[47802]

I see. So, to you, it is clear that
- a 230 is a re-used/old/recycled "cast off" whereas a refurbished 15x is not
- regardless of which interior option an operator might select from the various styles and levels proposed, a 230 nevertheless has an inadequate passenger environment and is not air conditioned (etc) whereas a refurbished 150, 156 is always adequate in all of these respects
- a 230 cannot work "with" other types of train, whereas every other type of train is compatible with each other
- there is an overwhelming need on vast swathes of the likely network for trains to exceed 60mph for long stretches of their route.
I must be missing something.

The 150's may be old but then so are the D230's whatever Vivarail might say and are not a recycled metro EMU that was never designed to be a regional DMU, and while there are some routes on Northern that could accommodate a D Train the fact remains that a 150 has higher seating capacity, and is more flexible to Northern with its higher Top Speed and its ability to work in multiple with most other Northern DMU's.

Had these trains come to Northern then they would have likely been an alternative to 195's and not 150's, and while the 195's can show a significant improvement for passengers on the new Northern Connect routes, the D230's would have been same old same old, and as a Northerner I think its high time we had something better. Ideally the 150's should have been replaced by 195's in this franchise as well but realistically than was never going to happen but at least the Railbuses will be replaced by a majority of trains which should be a significantly better product and take Northern Rail forward.