Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[iantherev]

The Valley lines into Cardiff went into meltdown this morning due to a points failiure at Trehafod. Many peak time trains into Cardiff were cancelled, missing stops and / or short formed. Cue moaning on twitter and the ATW 'Fails' FB page about how Arriva have given up on the franchise already, and it'll be a land of milk and honey this time next year...........

I give you South West Trains and South Western Railways....

 

[daikilo]

Heaven only knows how we managed on the Cambrian in the early 1980s with Met Camm and Swindon dmus....

Indeed, passengers are not what they used to be ...

 

[gareth950]

ATW don't run through the Severn Tunnel. Theirs 4 tph through the Severn Tunnel now. 2 tph to/from London/South Wales the Portsmouth to Cardiff Cross Country service and a stopper that does Taunton to Cardiff all operated by GWR. The Stopper should be 2 tph to be worthwhile. Though the issue maybe more regarding paths for freight through the Severn Tunnel.

The article bangs on about a Swansea to Bristol service seemingly ignoring pathing constraints remember Cardiff to Bridgend some how has to accommodate 4 tph metro service in addition to anything going to Swansea.

So what about this section then?

In the House of Commons last Wednesday, Newport East MP Jessica Morden asked Mr Grayling when her constituents would see action to address the “chronic lack of capacity” on commuter trains to Bristol.

Mr Grayling replied: “Of course, much of the responsibility for local services in the honourable lady’s constituency lies with the Welsh Government, and I am looking forward to seeing the outcome of their work in delivering new trains and better services as part of the new franchise.

“As for what we are doing in her constituency, there is the electrification programme into Paddington and the investment in the InterCity Express trains, which are providing faster and better journeys, but I am expecting and hoping for a significant increase in services from Cardiff eastwards as part of the Wales and the Borders franchise, which is one reason why we support the plan for Cardiff Parkway station.

“I am hoping for a significant enhancement, as part of that franchise, to the connections from Cardiff to Newport and Bristol.”

However, in September Mr Grayling ordered the Welsh Government not to allow the franchise bidders to propose cross-border services to Bristol.

So again, Grayling is saying he wants to see the Welsh Government deliver X enhancements as part of the new franchise, whilst at the same time banning WG from delivering X enhancements under the DfT agency agreement that he himself has authorised.
It seems he doesn't want WG to specify or touch anything at all that starts in Wales but ends in England.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The DfT/WG agreement doesn't ban WG specifying services to Bristol indefinitely, just to 2022 when the Bristol area NR upgrades are complete.

 

[B&I]

The link was originally estimated in about 2008 or 2009 at £500m so it would need significant central government funding either way.

The Llandudno service could be diverted via the airport with a Northern service running Chester to Warrington Bank Quay or Manchester to complement the future Chester to Leeds Northern Connect service. After modest upgrades to the mid Cheshire line it would be a slightly faster journey time between Chester and Piccadilly and provide a much faster service to the airport.

The Western Approach tunnel would need at least a 4tph service to be worthwhile. The single section of the mid Cheshire line would limit services to Chester to 2tph. A Northern DMU extended from the Airport to Chester would be an obvious second service. Other options are limited by the lack of electrification and demand. Extra capacity at the airport is pointless unless there is sufficient capacity from Slade Lane Junction to Piccadilly. It doesn't seem a viable project yet.

With a short stretch of electrification as far as the WCML (assuming any new tunnel under the airport would be wired), the westward services could include Liverpool via Northwich and Runcorn. You could also run TPE Scottish, and possibly Blackpool-airport, services in clockwise and anticlockwise loops through the airport to Piccadilly / Oxford Rd and vice versa, to provide a fast link to Manc Airport from Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western and points north.

 

[gareth950]

The DfT/WG agreement doesn't ban WG specifying services to Bristol indefinitely, just to 2022 when the Bristol area NR upgrades are complete.

So this section of the article is wrong?

Railfuture UK's spokesman Bruce Williamson, who lives in Bristol, said: "...The track improvements just outside Bristol are due to be completed in a year’s time, so the timetable slots will become available..."

The article also makes this valid point:
A footnote says that Welsh ministers “may make service proposals to the Secretary of State in respect of English services 'during the term of the franchise'". This could enable new services to Bristol eventually, but experience with the current Wales and Borders franchise has shown that ad-hoc additions to existing franchises tend to be more expensive than including the same improvements in the bidding process, where they are subjected to competitive tendering.

 

[edwin_m]

So again, Grayling is saying he wants to see the Welsh Government deliver X enhancements as part of the new franchise, whilst at the same time banning WG from delivering X enhancements under the DfT agency agreement that he himself has authorised.
It seems he doesn't want WG to specify or touch anything at all that starts in Wales but ends in England.

Isn't that just what we've come to expect, a mixture of ignorance and passing the buck?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So this section of the article is wrong?
Railfuture UK's spokesman Bruce Williamson, who lives in Bristol, said: "...The track improvements just outside Bristol are due to be completed in a year’s time, so the timetable slots will become available..."

Railfuture doesn't deliver infrastructure improvements.
The agreement actually says 2024, as the end of CP6, and specifically mentions Bristol East Jn improvements.
Dates for the overall Bristol scheme are dependent on NR CP6 funding not yet agreed.
It also says paths to Bristol shall not form part of the ITT competition and therefore will not be in the initial service spec.
I also says the number of future paths available is unknown.
Any W&B service to Bristol will affect the finances of the GW franchise which may or not be rebid in the interim.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Abeilio and Keolis are having a second meeting with the Shrewsbury to Aberysytwyth Line Liaison Committee in Welshpool this Friday.

 

[12guard4]

Unless you're an insider in the procurement process at TfW, you cannot possibly know that whilst everything is being kept so top secret. The deadline for bids is still 3 weeks away.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Caerleon would be one change for Birmingham @ Newport a couple of minutes down the road. Cardiff / Bristol/ Newport and London will make up 90% of the business from there. Its a town of 9000 in the commuter belt for Cardiff / Bristol/ Newport traffic heading north will be small. I cant see why you think there would be an important flow from there to Worcester/Oxford?

I don't think I said how important (or otherwise) I thought the flows were, as I really don't know (although given its location I'm pretty clear that the most important flow will be to Cardiff/Newport). I just think that continuing to Hereford would open up more possibilities for pepole to use the new Caerleon station (and 'Pontypool Road'). It was mainly the Birmingham connections I was thinking of though, Worcester and Oxford are just bonuses (didn't think of Caerleon passengers going to Birmingham via Newport, because that's starting off heading in the wrong direction). Railfuture's map, showing one or two new stations between Abergavenny and Hereford, probably also influenced my desire to see the Caerleon stopper run to Hereford, as that would allow any stations on that section (not that those seemed particularly realistic prospects to me) to be served without slowing down the mainline services.

Cwmbran with its population size its too big not to stop at. Can you name any other town of 46,000 , 18 miles from a major regional city center that other Regional Express services don't stop at?

Much like Caerleon, the most important market by far at Cwmbran is going to be the links to/from Cardiff/Newport isn't it? It should have at least 2tph certainly, including one to at least Shrewsbury, and probably more-frequent to/from Cardiff/Newport given its size, but does it need the principal fast service stopping at it as well or can the commuters be kept off the Manchester trains by not stopping them at Cwmbran?

There's also the possibility on a Metro service stopping at Intermediate stations between Newport and Cardiff. So if we do have reopened stations and a proper Metro then you need to get that stopping slower service out the way at Abergavenny of the longer distance trains because of pathing issues.

I think there are pathing issues with putting extra services on the marches anyway; and if the Metro service does stop between Cardiff and Newport wouldn't that be the ideal opertunity for faster trains to overtake given that is a 4-track section?

Shrewsbury to Birmingham International needs more resource , the additional West Midlands franchise off peak service will do little to help at peak times on the route. This Friday ATW's longest train the 0530 ex Aberystwyth whihc is a six car 158 east of Shrewsbury had people standing on it from Telford to Birmingham New St.

I knew the 4-car trains got busy east of Shrewsbury, but I didn't realise ATW's 6-car workings could overflow on that section too. What is needed then, 2+2+3 = 7-car formations? Or 3+3+2 = 8?

36 minutes out of New St much longer than the "no more than 15 to 20 minutes" that are touted as acceptable. 1607 INTL to AYW couldn't cope despite having 4 cars on Sunday. Splitting Wrexham/Chester and Cambrian portions at Shrewsbury every hour will give the required seats east of Shrewsbury if he entire 158 fleet is concentrated back on the ex Central Trains routes.

Doesn't having the Wrexham/Chester-Birmingham portions run every hour still mean that the 158s you would save by not running through to Holyhead are still not being used where ETCS is needed? Hourly to Aberystwyth with Wrexham/Chester and Pwllheli portions in alternating hours would maximise availablity of units for the Cambrian-Birmingham route. I suppose going hourly from Wrexham to Birmingham would make sense though if Wrexham is to lose the through trains to Cardiff that currently run in the other hour to the Birmingham service.

ATW don't run through the Severn Tunnel. Theirs 4 tph through the Severn Tunnel now. 2 tph to/from London/South Wales the Portsmouth to Cardiff Cross Country service and a stopper that does Taunton to Cardiff all operated by GWR. The Stopper should be 2 tph to be worthwhile. Though the issue maybe more regarding paths for freight through the Severn Tunnel.

The article bangs on about a Swansea to Bristol service seemingly ignoring pathing constraints remember Cardiff to Bridgend some how has to accommodate 4 tph metro service in addition to anything going to Swansea.

Has there been any announcement about 4tph Cardiff-Pontypool-Bridgend-Maesteg? I thought that was only meant to be 2tph; but there are still capacity issues between Cardiff and Bridgend. With electrification currently off, I think there needs to be an urgent look at Cardiff-Bridgend speeds and capacity, including the ability for fast trains to overtake stoppers.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well the time when the Welsh Government will have to make a decision is nearly upon us with bids in by this Thursday.

Ken Skates is talking big - will the reality live up to it?

http://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/ne...s_for_Welsh_rail_contract_expected_this_week/

Economy and transport secretary Ken Skates said: “This will be the Welsh Government’s first rail service procurement and we fully intend to create a service with passengers at its heart - one that benefits the whole of Wales.

“From rolling stock to frequency of services, Metros to profit thresholds, the final tender puts the Welsh passenger first and provides the blueprint for what these three world class rail operators are bidding to provide Wales.”

The minister added: “Detailed discussions with the shortlisted potential operators have only served to reinforce our optimism that the next service will see big improvements and I look forward to seeing how the detailed tenders tackle our ambitious requirements before making a decision on the successful operator in Spring 2018.”

In other news I'm told that Arriva are waiting in the wings for a franchise extension and fully expect to screw WG/DfT to the floor over it.

 

[gareth950]

Well the time when the Welsh Government will have to make a decision is nearly upon us with bids in by this Thursday.

Ken Skates is talking big - will the reality live up to it?

http://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/ne...s_for_Welsh_rail_contract_expected_this_week/


In other news I'm told that Arriva are waiting in the wings for a franchise extension and fully expect to screw WG/DfT to the floor over it.

It's the same rhetoric that we've been hearing from Skates over the past year. You wonder why he's going so OTT with the rhetoric and building up expectations so much.

As for the extension - that would be a major humiliation for Welsh Govt surely? All this talk of 'transformation' from next October and ATW carry on until possibly 2020. Would be highly embarrassing. The only reasons I can think of for ATW getting an extension is to get Wales past the PRM deadline and due to the fact that Grayling hasn't cooperated with regards to devolving powers on time as agreed.

Yet we're now 24 months away from the PRM deadline and still NONE of Wales' DMUs have been sent away for modifications (Pacers and 153s excepted as surely they are going for scrap?) The next franchisee must be facing a major crisis over it.

 

[CapitalStar378]

I thought that PRMs are due to start in the spring hence the 769s are being leased (as well as for increased capacity).

 

[gareth950]

I thought that PRMs are due to start in the spring hence the 769s are being leased (as well as for increased capacity).

Spring has now slipped to 'summer', which could mean as late as August. So that's 16 or so months to get ATW's entire fleet of 158s and 150/2s upgraded with just 5 trains acting as cover.

 

[Dai Corner]

I don't think a single 769 has been built / converted yet, let alone been signed off by the various authorities, accepted into service and proved reliable.

By the way, I've lost track, do we get to hear anything about the bids on Friday after the closing date or do we have to wait until the white smoke rises from Ken Skates' office chimney and he makes the big announcement?

 

[gareth950]

I don't think a single 769 has been built / converted yet, let alone been signed off by the various authorities, accepted into service and proved reliable.

By the way, I've lost track, do we get to hear anything about the bids on Friday after the closing date or do we have to wait until the white smoke rises from Ken Skates' office chimney and he makes the big announcement?

I suspect the latter.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It's the same rhetoric that we've been hearing from Skates over the past year. You wonder why he's going so OTT with the rhetoric and building up expectations so much.

As for the extension - that would be a major humiliation for Welsh Govt surely? All this talk of 'transformation' from next October and ATW carry on until possibly 2020. Would be highly embarrassing. The only reasons I can think of for ATW getting an extension is to get Wales past the PRM deadline and due to the fact that Grayling hasn't cooperated with regards to devolving powers on time as agreed.

Yet we're now 24 months away from the PRM deadline and still NONE of Wales' DMUs have been sent away for modifications (Pacers and 153s excepted as surely they are going for scrap?) The next franchisee must be facing a major crisis over it.

Well it's was always been a matter of how the Welsh Government mess it up not if......I'm sure Ken Skates has been practicing his "it's all the Tory's fault" speech for months.

 

[HH]

I suspect the latter.

It's definitely the latter. The bids have to be evaluated first and then risk adjusted, etc.

 

[Gareth Marston]

This underwhelming e mail just hit my inbox from Trasnport for Wales as usual don't expect any detail or any key questions being answered.

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Transport for Wales e-bulletin / E-fwletin Trafnidiaeth Cymru (Transport for Wales e-bulletin / Transport Wales E-Bulletin)
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Transport Wales E-Bulletin

Here you updated about Transport Wales and how the procurement process is underway for the new Wales and Borders Rail Service and Metro South Wales.

Scroll down for English

Thanks for reading the latest information on our work this year, and more importantly, share your views to help us transform the transport network in Wales.

2018 will be an exciting year and we want to ensure that you get the latest news as we proceed to publish the winning bid and towards the beginning of the new Rail Service in October 2018.

This will be the last edition of the newsletter in its current form. To continue to receive email updates, visit our website and sign up for our new mailing list: www.tfw.llyw.cymru . You can keep in touch via Twitter also follow us on @transport_wales .

Welsh Transport would like to wish a Happy New Year and Christmas full of you.

1. Procurement Update Service Wales & Borders Trains

Invitation to Submit formally announced the end of September Final Tenders and three companies working on their proposals now to be returned by 21 December: Abellio Rail Wales, and MTR Corporation KeolisAmey (Wales) Ltd.

Wales Transport competitive negotiation process began in the month of January 2017 and throughout the year your views have been instrumental in shaping the requirements for the next rail service. We recently published an overview of the requirements which include better services, ensure quality of service and that the passengers as comfortable as possible and transform the experience while traveling. We are keen to ensure better trains, stations and information systems, particularly in relation to disabled access.

• See the requirements for Rail Services for the Future (pdf, 6.37MB): http://llyw.cymru/docs/det/publications/170922-rail-services-of-the-future-brochure-cy.pdf

1. Companies are invited to become partners Infrastructure Delivery

Transport Wales is about to launch a second procurement exercise to establish a framework of partners supplying infrastructure to provide transport infrastructure projects, starting with Metro South Wales. We run events across Wales to provide information to companies looking for a place on the new framework.

We are very keen to ensure that local SMEs and Third Sector Enterprises can apply so that local workers and disadvantaged groups benefit from the investment of £ 1 billion that is being done. We will use these events to encourage cooperation with and between SMEs and Third Sector Enterprises as they can apply.

Around 200 people attended the first event held on the 25th October. The keynote address was provided by Ken Skates, Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Infrastructure.

• Read about the event on our website https://tfw.gov.wales/cy/newyddion-...iaeth-yn-awyddus-i-gyflenwi-ar-gyfer-cymru-ar

Additional events will be organized for suppliers early in the new year, and these will be promoted on our website and on our Twitter account.

https://www.GwerthwchiGymru.llyw.cymru/Register/Register_Start.aspx

Details of the events on the Business Wales website.

1. New members of the Board appointed

It has recently appointed two new Executive Director to the Board of Transport Wales.

Martin began Dorchester and Nick Gregg in their roles on 1 September, and the two wealth of relevant experience to oversee the activities of Transport Wales and provide an independent and objective perspective.

• Martin Dorchester

Martin is an experienced and active member, currently, he is Chief Executive David MacBrayne Group Ltd. He has been CEO and Managing Director in various companies, oversees projects and guiding the large refinancing market breakdown by companies in 2008. Martin runs his own consultancy firm also successfully been. Martin is an academic and a staunch supporter of business and community social.

• Nick Gregg

Nick has years of experience working in executive roles with public and private sector businesses, provides innovative and cost-effective solutions to customers, local authorities and the wider public sector. During his career, he has been responsible for successful delivery contracts highways, transport, waste and environmental, and has overseen operations of retail, service and logistics.


Transport for Wales e-bulletin

Updating you on Transport for Wales and the plan details of the procurement model for the next Wales and Borders Rail Service and South Wales Metro


Thank you for keeping up to date with our gwaith this year and more importantly, for the sharing your views to help us Transform the transport network for Wales.

2018 vice Going to an Exciting year and what web ydych a make Sure tattoo chi are KEPT InformED mp web move forward to announcing the winning Bidder and Towards the start of the new Rail Service in October 2018.

This last edition of the hyn our newsletter in-its cyfredol format. Continue dderbyn updates by email to, please visit our website and sign up to our new Mailing list: www.tfw.gov.wales . Keep in touch You can ALSO us on Twitter by isod @transport_wales .

Transport for Wales would like to wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year and.

 

[daikilo]

I hope they are better at proof reading contractual documentation than they have been (?) for the above release. I can imagine communications between the to-be-selected operators, the infrastructure builders and TfW being fraught if it isn"t!

 

[Dai Corner]

I can't imagine how that was produced. Was it orginally in Welsh and machine-translated or something? There is a reference to automatic translation near the beginning.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I hope they are better at proof reading contractual documentation than they have been (?) for the above release. I can imagine communications between the to-be-selected operators, the infrastructure builders and TfW being fraught if it isn"t!

Sadly on evidence so far this is their standard.....doesn't bode well.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Does Transport Wales have any professional rail expertise (ie experience with Network Rail or a TOC).
Roads and ferries don't count...

 

[Bwlch y Groes]

The English version is here: http://llyw.cymru/docs/det/publications/170922-rail-services-of-the-future-brochure-en.pdf - nothing here that we didn't already know. "We've listened to you and decided to do all of the things we were going to do anyway"

 

[Gareth Marston]

The Welsh Government have apparently found another £135 million to throw at the M4 Relief Road White Elephant to try and buy off Associated British Ports objection to it. Now given that addressing "world class congestion and accidents" at the Brynglas is a screaming national priority the road will now take 2 years longer to build.........

Desperate stuff from Welsh Labour who continue to pigheadedly try and plough this through come what may. Thats another £135 million that isn't going to be spent on the South Wales Metro or Wales and Border franchise compare and contrast with smiley Ken Skates continual bulling up of prospects for the franchise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-42425803

The proposed M4 relief road is to cost an extra £135m and the opening will be delayed by two years, it has been revealed.

The move means the Welsh Government can carry out improvements at Newport docks.

It expects the measures will result in the port's owners, Associated British Ports (ABP) to withdraw its objections to the favoured black route.

The 10% rise in costs will take the bill for that option to £1.3bn.

 

[gareth950]

The Welsh Government have apparently found another £135 million to throw at the M4 Relief Road White Elephant to try and buy off Associated British Ports objection to it. Now given that addressing "world class congestion and accidents" at the Brynglas is a screaming national priority the road will now take 2 years longer to build.........

Desperate stuff from Welsh Labour who continue to pigheadedly try and plough this through come what may. Thats another £135 million that isn't going to be spent on the South Wales Metro or Wales and Border franchise compare and contrast with smiley Ken Skates continual bulling up of prospects for the franchise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-42425803

I'm not at all surprised unfortunately. This is Carwyn Jones' and Ken Skates' very own vanity project and they are determined to get it steamrolled through no matter what the cost to the Welsh infrastructure budget and public transport system, as well as the colossal environmental and ecological damage that will be caused.
Even if the public enquiry reports back recommending no relief road be built and the money invested in public transport in south east Wales, or more likely, a route other than the black route is recommended, Skates and Jones can still choose to ignore the result of the inquiry, and probably will.

 

[gareth950]

Check out my post #515 in the South Wales Metro thread over in Infrastructure & Stations for a first look at the details of TfW's ideas / plans for the Valley lines and Metro.

 

[topydre]

I can't imagine how that was produced. Was it orginally in Welsh and machine-translated or something? There is a reference to automatic translation near the beginning.

Definitely was

This was clearly google-translated the other way; it's one of those "welsh" documents which only make sense if you mentally translate into english and then back into welsh
https://tfw.gov.wales/projects/wales-and-borders-rail-service-0

 

[Envoy]

I am with Carwyn & Ken on the this one. Whilst I fully support a shift of people to rail, the only viable solution to getting traffic free flowing in and out of south Wales is to build the black route M4 south of Newport. The economy needs an excellent road system combined with a high quality rail network. The present situation on the M4 at Newport is really dire with long delays and many accidents. The environmental damage is not that great as much of the route passes through south Newport’s industrial zone and the ‘green' areas it would cross are not natural wetlands but farmland that has been drained since Roman times. In fact, it was Brunel who would have caused greater environmental damage to this area when he built the railway - but then the Victorians actually got on and did things.