Keolis/Amey to take over Wales and Borders

[craigybagel]

It is in its current usage; there was an hourly Holyhead-Crewe-Stafford-Birmingham in FNW days (mostly LHCS) rather than the ridiculous politically driven diversion onto the Marches.

It was roughly hourly to Crewe but only occasionally through to Birmingham, every 3 or 4 hours or so IIRC.

 

[Tom Quinne]

I’m sure the WAG have said the Ebbw Vale will not be electrified?

 

[gareth950]

I’m sure the WAG have said the Ebbw Vale will not be electrified?

It won't. Neither will Vale of Glamorgan, Maesteg, Cardiff - Bridgend on the mainline, or the western City line via Ninian Park.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

It was roughly hourly to Crewe but only occasionally through to Birmingham, every 3 or 4 hours or so IIRC.

About 6 trips a day from memory - also an odd Manchester - Birmingham (off topic I know) , via Stafford , sometimes the late one had a 323 set on it ...!

Taken off not just for Wales issues - but for the dire situation that FNW was in at the time. An almost forgotten operator to some , (if not the staff) , on the route.

 

[driver_m]

Be interesting to see what the proposals for the Liverpool North Wales services are. A definite growth area for travel. (try driving on the A55 in summer)

 

[6Gman]

I'd suggest this may be due to the level of service provided, in particular the need for 2 changes to go anywhere useful except where a through London train is running.

I don't think so. You're looking at a fairly thinly populated, low income, low economic activity area. Not sure that "build it and they will come" applies.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It was roughly hourly to Crewe but only occasionally through to Birmingham, every 3 or 4 hours or so IIRC.

At its best under FNW, it was hourly Crewe-Holyhead, starting back at Birmingham in alternate hours.
But there were never enough working 3-car 175s for the intended service, and the service remained on slow LHCS times south of Crewe.
The through services stopped in 2002 when the WCRM project closed the fast lines between Crewe and Stafford for upgrade.
By the time that finished, Arriva were taking over from First and planning the diversion of Holyhead services via Shrewsbury which started in 2004.
At this point there were two ATW hourly shuttles Chester-Crewe, which were downgraded from 175/158 to 150/153.
Virgin had 3tpd HSTs London-Holyhead until 2003 when 5tpd Voyagers/57+390s started, increasing to 6tpd Voyagers today.
The hourly London-Chester Voyager started in 2008, replacing one of the ATW shuttles.

 

[Taunton]

Be interesting to see what the proposals for the Liverpool North Wales services are. A definite growth area for travel. (try driving on the A55 in summer)

Because Chester to North Wales is multiple times an hour, and Liverpool to Chester is every 15 minutes turn-up-and-go, a through train round by Runcorn is not going to beat these times by much, if anything, and can only be a low frequency operation, nothing like the Chester connection offers currently. A solutiom looking for a problem I think.

 

[Kite159]

I wonder if the Maesteg line will finally get a Sunday service, even if it is merely a shuttle between Bridgend & Maesteg connecting into mainline services at Bridgend.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Because Chester to North Wales is multiple times an hour, and Liverpool to Chester is every 15 minutes turn-up-and-go, a through train round by Runcorn is not going to beat these times by much, if anything, and can only be a low frequency operation, nothing like the Chester connection offers currently. A solutiom looking for a problem I think.

I would suggest the way to get people using it would be to run it through to Llandudno, possibly portion working with the service from Manchester if the timings fit. If it only goes to Chester it'll be about as busy as the old hourly Liverpool to Chester via Warrington Pacer was, i.e. not very.

People just going to Chester will continue to use Merseyrail. It isn't quick, but the frequency gives it far higher utility.

 

[tiptoptaff]

I wonder if the Maesteg line will finally get a Sunday service, even if it is merely a shuttle between Bridgend & Maesteg connecting into mainline services at Bridgend.

The reason it doesn't is due to not wanting to pay for a Sunday turn in Tondu box. That would have to change, or the box no longer needed, for it to happen

 

[sw1ller]

I would suggest the way to get people using it would be to run it through to Llandudno, possibly portion working with the service from Manchester if the timings fit. If it only goes to Chester it'll be about as busy as the old hourly Liverpool to Chester via Warrington Pacer was, i.e. not very.

People just going to Chester will continue to use Merseyrail. It isn't quick, but the frequency gives it far higher utility.

I honestly think a the Chester liverpool via Halton curve will be quite busy. Weekends and later on trains will be popular just because you can drink and there’s a toilet on bored, if for no other reason. It’ll be slightly quicker and I think, having heard horrible rumours about the amount of work proposed on the dockets (4+ runs a day on some turns) it’ll be more frequent than once an hour. The east junction at Chester only needs on extra crossover to increase capacity. More trains can leave and arrive at the same time then.

 

[mde]

You've forgotten "transformational and transformative" which were bandied around a lot by Keolis today, along with "ambitious" "exciting" "step change" and who can forget that this franchise award has been "made in Wales".

Where's the like button?

I'm wondering if we'll see some announcements from CAF in the coming days - it almost seems too obvious.

 

[The Ham]

Until Grayling and the DfT Luddites cancelled the wires to Swansea the Stadler bi mode was my preferred option for Manchester to Swansea given they would use the wires for a fair distance c80 miles. Gresty Lane to Manchester and Newport to Swansea.

The strong suspicion that franchise services from North Wales Coast to Manchester will have to be 1/3 & 2/3 door arrangement for Platforms 13/14 at Piccadily is a bit of spanner in the works as you only need a sub fleet with half a dozen off peak diagrams for those runs. Aside form this caveat its fairly certain that the LHCS will go and we know the 158's are staying.

So its

158 (48) + 175 (69) + cascaded 170's ( GA fleet =32) = 150
158 (48) + 175 (69) + cascaded 185s ( 66) = 183
158 (48) + 175 (69) + new build (c42) = 159
158 (48) + cascaded 170 (32) + cascaded 185's (66) = 146
158 (48) + cascaded 170 (32) + new build (80) = 160
158 (48) + new build (112) = 160

How about nicking the 220's (34 units formed of 136 vehicles) from XC forcing them to get new bimodal trains?

It would explain why the Wales ITT has been kept hidden, in that there was a desire to hide the loss of trains from XC.

Seriously though, given that as soon as you look at more units for XC you start to realise that is going to be cheaper to have longer units target than run pairs of units (i.e. 7 coach units had broadly the same capacity as a pair of 4 coach units saving on track access, leading, maintenance, etc. As well as the reduction in staffing costs.). As such the ROSCO could be willing to cut their losses and offer then to a different franchise before they are forced to and find there's no market for them. (Although I would expect that it wouldn't be wholesale, meaning that is likely to be enough to replace the loco hauled sets and a few other services that would be suitable, rather than the full 34 units).

 

[Gareth Marston]

Where's the like button?

I'm wondering if we'll see some announcements from CAF in the coming days - it almost seems too obvious.

Yes its almost too obvious - however current Modern Railways reporting that Newport CAF plant will be building Civity's for Northern. With a new factory/assembly plant with a pre existing order book then i don't think well be seeing anything for Wales and Borders for some time from it.......

 

[HH]

How about nicking the 220's (34 units formed of 136 vehicles) from XC forcing them to get new bimodal trains?

It would explain why the Wales ITT has been kept hidden, in that there was a desire to hide the loss of trains from XC.

Seriously though, given that as soon as you look at more units for XC you start to realise that is going to be cheaper to have longer units target than run pairs of units (i.e. 7 coach units had broadly the same capacity as a pair of 4 coach units saving on track access, leading, maintenance, etc. As well as the reduction in staffing costs.). As such the ROSCO could be willing to cut their losses and offer then to a different franchise before they are forced to and find there's no market for them. (Although I would expect that it wouldn't be wholesale, meaning that is likely to be enough to replace the loco hauled sets and a few other services that would be suitable, rather than the full 34 units).

Seriously? How many 220s do you imagine W&B need? Where would they be maintained? Do you actually think they would be cheaper than alternatives?

I'd say there was less chance of 220s going to Wales than there is of Grayling suddenly announcing extra funds for electrification.

 

[Gareth Marston]

How about nicking the 220's (34 units formed of 136 vehicles) from XC forcing them to get new bimodal trains?

It would explain why the Wales ITT has been kept hidden, in that there was a desire to hide the loss of trains from XC.

Seriously though, given that as soon as you look at more units for XC you start to realise that is going to be cheaper to have longer units target than run pairs of units (i.e. 7 coach units had broadly the same capacity as a pair of 4 coach units saving on track access, leading, maintenance, etc. As well as the reduction in staffing costs.). As such the ROSCO could be willing to cut their losses and offer then to a different franchise before they are forced to and find there's no market for them. (Although I would expect that it wouldn't be wholesale, meaning that is likely to be enough to replace the loco hauled sets and a few other services that would be suitable, rather than the full 34 units).

No not a chance. Franchising /ROSCO's/ commercial deals don't work like that.

If Keloisamey wanted to increase/replace the existing Long distance ATW fleet in their bid then the choices open to them when they prepared their bid were:

1. Rolling Stock that the ROSCO's could offer that were known to be off lease or were known to becoming off lease
2. New Build.

The only known suitable rolling stock to be becoming off lease are

• Greater Anglias 156 & 170 fleets (by end of 2019)
• TPE surplus 185 fleet (2020/2021 though there's some conjecture that TPW may take over Liverpool to Nottingham and need them)
• West Midlands Trains 170 fleet (2021)

XC 220's are leased up until the end of the XC franchise (2020) and then protocol/precedent gives the new bidders first refusal on leasing them again.

 

[sprinterguy]

It would explain why the Wales ITT has been kept hidden, in that there was a desire to hide the loss of trains from XC.

The Invitation to Tender does not stipulate the rolling stock that will be operated by the franchise. It sets out the specifications of the franchise required to be met by the bidders, how they choose to do so is up to them.

 

[driver_m]

Because Chester to North Wales is multiple times an hour, and Liverpool to Chester is every 15 minutes turn-up-and-go, a through train round by Runcorn is not going to beat these times by much, if anything, and can only be a low frequency operation, nothing like the Chester connection offers currently. A solutiom looking for a problem I think.

It'll be the train of choice if you're in South Liverpool. Also makes it a lot easier to get to Liverpool Airport from Chester + North Wales. Could also be the catalyst to enable the re-opening of Ditton.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Invitation to Tender does not stipulate the rolling stock that will be operated by the franchise. It sets out the specifications of the franchise required to be met by the bidders, how they choose to do so is up to them.

Several recent English franchises do specify exactly that - specific fleets they can use, and specific fleets they can't.

 

[B&I]

It'll be the train of choice if you're in South Liverpool. Also makes it a lot easier to get to Liverpool Airport from Chester + North Wales. Could also be the catalyst to enable the re-opening of Ditton.

Can't help but feel that we're going to end up with neither fish nor fowl with this Halton Curve service - not stopping at enough places to meet south Liverpool-Chester demand, too slow to compete with the Wirral Line.

The sensible approach would be a Northern (and in the further future Merseyrail)-run all stops service (including new / re-opened stations eg Smithdown Rd, Ditton, Beechwood, Mickle Trafford, something on the eastern outskirts of Chester), and limited stop (South Parkway, Runcorn, maybe Helsby ?) services bound for north Wales, and south Wales via the Marches

 

[Bletchleyite]

What is the Liverpool to South Wales demand like? Could this actually be a sensible way to handle the Marches problem, i.e. to allow the Holyheads to run to Crewe instead and the Marches be served from Liverpool via Chester?

 

[mde]

Several recent English franchises do specify exactly that - specific fleets they can use, and specific fleets they can't.

What's the Welsh phrase for "No Pacers"?

Apart from them, given the somewhat predictable Sprinter refurb, the only other thing I can see them ruling out is the 230 since it's not 'world class' enough… although, you could interpret Shooter's recent speeches as saying otherwise. One to watch there.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't know about the Valleys but in the context of Wales there are a few routes where 230s would fit fairly well as small dedicated locally-maintained and locally-branded microfleets on low-speed branch line services. Conwy Valley and Wrexham-Bidston seem the obvious two in North Wales (probably a single fleet for the two in order to avoid the cost of too many spares), I don't know South Wales as well to come up with ideas there. One other that might work is Machynlleth-Pwllheli if it ceases to be portion worked to allow an all day 4-car Aberystwyth service.

 

[sprinterguy]

Several recent English franchises do specify exactly that - specific fleets they can use, and specific fleets they can't.

The Northern and TPE ITTs, if those are the ones you are referring to, still left a suite of options for the bidders to pick and choose from, though - It wasn't a case of stating "You must take this fleet of trains".

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Northern and TPE ITTs, if those are the ones you are referring to, still left a suite of options for the bidders to pick and choose from, though - It wasn't a case of stating "You must take this fleet of trains".

True, it was more a case that they were *prohibited* from taking certain fleets because they were known to be wanted by another TOC and that other TOC had few sensible options other than that. That came about because of the "poaching" of the ex-TPE 170s causing so much trouble, I believe.

Having said that, Northern were told they couldn't have the 323s long term because they were going to the Midlands...who don't want them and ordered new. So that could result in a relatively new fleet of EMUs getting scrapped.

 

[mmh]

Because Chester to North Wales is multiple times an hour, and Liverpool to Chester is every 15 minutes turn-up-and-go, a through train round by Runcorn is not going to beat these times by much, if anything, and can only be a low frequency operation, nothing like the Chester connection offers currently. A solutiom looking for a problem I think.

Through trains can generate traffic that didn't exist before simply by making a journey more attractive, or making people aware it's possible in the first place - someone sees a Liverpool service on a departures board, "oh, you can go there now!"
Many people just won't know that a service from Chester to Liverpool exists - geographically it's not obvious that there'd be a line up the Wirral and under the Mersey.

And it would solve one problem - North Wales's closest airport being an absolute pain to get to by public transport. There must be lots of supressed demand there, leading to most people using Manchester.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I don't know about the Valleys but in the context of Wales there are a few routes where 230s would fit fairly well as small dedicated locally-maintained and locally-branded microfleets on low-speed branch line services. Conwy Valley and Wrexham-Bidston seem the obvious two in North Wales (probably a single fleet for the two in order to avoid the cost of too many spares), I don't know South Wales as well to come up with ideas there. One other that might work is Machynlleth-Pwllheli if it ceases to be portion worked to allow an all day 4-car Aberystwyth service.

So Vivarail have put ETCS in the D Train then?

 

[Gareth Marston]

What is the Liverpool to South Wales demand like? Could this actually be a sensible way to handle the Marches problem, i.e. to allow the Holyheads to run to Crewe instead and the Marches be served from Liverpool via Chester?

Shrewsbury to Chester RUG have pushed for this- its not just the South Wales to Merseyside traffic but Shrewsbury up to Wrexham that woudl benefit. Also from Welshpool/Newtown. I would say Liverpool is beating Manchester for sales here @ Newtown at moment. A through service from Shrewsbury would help.

You can also say your improving services between North Wales largest town and Cardiff at the same time as providing trains to where people want to go

 

[Bletchleyite]

So Vivarail have put ETCS in the D Train then?

If an order is forthcoming specifying ETCS I'm sure they will, yes.