Horton is one piece of dirt in a very large mess. GTR has been a disaster from the word go - and even if we accept that issues were inherited from First (although they seemed to run the GN, at least, pretty well) and issues have been created by the DFT (Thameslink Programme and the Southern DOO dispute), there’s little sign that GTR has handled these challenges well. In this last month the level of detachment from reality exhibited by Horton in particular has been quite alarming.
There comes a point where a decision has to be made to abandon ship a sinking ship, and with the mess that the TSGN franchise is now in I think it’s fair to say that point has come. It’s worth remembering that this mess is entirely an own-goal for the industry - a few years ago we had two (not including Gatwick Express) relatively stable and satisfactorily performing franchises.
I’d like to see some accountability from the DFT, however it’s very hard to pin down responsibility there because of 1) the long timescales involved in this project, and 2) the general lack of accountability and transparency inherent in the DFT. Again whilst Grayling has not showered himself with credit, this project goes back well before his tenure.
Where do we go from here? Not an easy question as the whole franchise is a monumental mess, and because of ThamesLink/ there is now linkage between the southern and TL/GN sides. I think I’d be looking to completely go back to the December 2017 timetable, stabilise the whole thing by splitting the Southern and TL/GN franchises, and then completely re-plan the whole Thameslink programme, with a smaller selection of routes and a bit less through running. I’d then recruit a dedicated pool of drivers for the new Thameslink services and ensure they’re fully competent before trying to implement a timetable. Unfortunately someone would then be left accounting for a massive waste of public money.