Transport Select Committee calls for cancelled electrification schemes to be reinstated

[themiller]

I've just read in Railnews online that there are calls from the Commons Transport Committee to 'uncancel' those schemes that Chris Grayling binned and place them in the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline along with East - West Rail so that further work can be done on them to bring the costs down. https://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2018/06/28-mps-want-cancelled-electrification-schemes.html

A COMMITTEE of MPs has recommended that electrification schemes cancelled over the past year should be revived and placed in the ‘pending’ tray for the time being.

The call for a rethink has come as the Commons Transport Committee published a report today on infrastructure, entitled Rail infrastructure investment, in which it said the government must do more to help the regions which had been ‘short-changed’ on rail spending.

Electrification schemes which were set out in 2012 but later cancelled include Kettering-Nottingham/Sheffield, Cardiff-Swansea, Didcot-Oxford, Chippenham-Bath-Bristol Temple Meads and Oxenholme-Windermere. East West Rail had also been selected as part of the ambitious scheme to create an ‘electric spine’ for freight stretching from Southampton to the Midlands and North, but it is now being built as a diesel route for commuter trains.

These schemes should now be placed in the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline...

It's good news if that happens and even better if even one of the schemes goes ahead.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

It seems to me Grayling is taking some heat at the moment so even 1 scheme being announced as going ahead after a rethink would help is cause one would feel.

 

[snowball]

That appears to be referring to this report, published today:

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmtrans/582/582.pdf

 

[Bantamzen]

It seems to me Grayling is taking some heat at the moment so even 1 scheme being announced as going ahead after a rethink would help is cause one would feel.

I would imagine Grayling's time is close to an end, May's beleaguered Cabinet could do with a "good news" story in brining in a fresh face who instantly announces a rethink of strategy. Or am I just being cynical?

That appears to be referring to this report, published today:

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmtrans/582/582.pdf

That seems to conclude that electrification is generally seen in the industry as the primary solution for heavily used routes, with bi-modes as only an alternative where there isn't scope for wiring. Or in other words, rethink the decision on the MML and sections of GWR currently missed, and hopefully by proxy an end to the "Grayling Gaps" on the North TP.

 

[snowball]

I would imagine Grayling's time is close to an end

Dunno, May seems to be strongly identified with him. But a recent report by the Commons justice committee is very scathing about the privatisation of probation, one of his main policies in his previous job.

 

[Bantamzen]

Dunno, May seems to be strongly identified with him. But a recent report by the Commons justice committee is very scathing about the privatisation of probation, one of his main policies in his previous job.

I feel that May would throw pretty much anyone & everyone under the bus if she thought she'd come out smelling of roses, so whilst Grayling may have dodged some bullets I cannot see him lasting much longer when there might be political points to be gained.

 

[snowball]

Of course, any reshuffle in current conditions is made more difficult by the need to maintain the delicate Brexiteer/Bremainer balance in the cabinet, and hold off leadership bids. Boris, for example, has repeatedly behaved worse than any minister in living memory, yet remains in post.

 

[hwl]

I feel that May would throw pretty much anyone & everyone under the bus if she thought she'd come out smelling of roses, so whilst Grayling may have dodged some bullets I cannot see him lasting much longer when there might be political points to be gained.

I think Grayling still has some flack absorption abilities left.

 

[Bantamzen]

I think Grayling still has some flack absorption abilities left.

If he still has then I would be tempted to recall the role of Witchfinder General. Because after the latest round of timetable meltdown around the country, the mess that electrification schemes have become, not to mention the VTEC situation, if he can survive I can only assume he's using some form of dark magic!

 

[YorkshireBear]

Having enahancement schemes on the back burner with small teams working on them until a case can be made to restarted fully is sensible as it keeps knowledge on the scheme and also allows changes in standards and their implications to be understood quicker.

 

[Gareth Marston]

East West is sensible as that can mainly be done without effecting the operational railway - i believe there's no signalling cables to worry about east of Bicester!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

East West is sensible as that can mainly be done without effecting the operational railway - i believe there's no signalling cables to worry about east of Bicester!

Indeed. Electrification is disruptive Grayling tells us. So if you are building new or not on live railway, by definition if you electrify from the start you are not being disruptive.

 

[CdBrux]

To me what the select committee wants is, on the face of that report, wrong. What they should want is a clear 'roadmap' to get the cost of electrification under control and then a list of probably smaller scale / simpler projects in which they prove that this is done. Ideally these projects would be where bi-modes are already running or where perhaps the surplus EMU's could be deployed so as to avoid messing up still further rolling stock plans. Also where benefits to passengers will be greatest.

Then, with credibility returned via delivery to budget and on time re-asses the priorities for the next projects for a more solid cost estimation.

This should be a joint proposal from TOC's and NR and possibly also ORR and DfT.

I would accept it is important to keep a steady pipeline of project to keep skills whilst the above is proven. From my limited knowledge there are already quite a few:
* MML to Kettering & Corby
* Wigan to Lostock
* Transpennine partly
* GWR deferred schemes
* S Wales valleys (discontinuous - could be interesting to learn economics of this)
* What about renewals - is that helpful in this respect?

 

[DarloRich]

It's good news if that happens and even better if even one of the schemes goes ahead.

perhaps the transport select committee have found some more money down the back of their sofa.................

I feel that May would throw pretty much anyone & everyone under the bus if she thought she'd come out smelling of roses, so whilst Grayling may have dodged some bullets I cannot see him lasting much longer when there might be political points to be gained.

I think Grayling still has some flack absorption abilities left.

Grayling will remain in post until he is no longer offering any human shield like qualities. He is out front taking the heat from the media and deflecting attention from the government and the hapless PM and Brexit. Once he is no longer any good at that he will be binned.

Having enahancement schemes on the back burner with small teams working on them until a case can be made to restarted fully is sensible as it keeps knowledge on the scheme and also allows changes in standards and their implications to be understood quicker.

it has to be paid for and paying for every one of those back burner teams is a money taken from projects that could deliver today.

 

[40145 Panther]

I would imagine Grayling's time is close to an end, May's beleaguered Cabinet could do with a "good news" story in brining in a fresh face who instantly announces a rethink of strategy. Or am I just being cynical?



That seems to conclude that electrification is generally seen in the industry as the primary solution for heavily used routes, with bi-modes as only an alternative where there isn't scope for wiring. Or in other words, rethink the decision on the MML and sections of GWR currently missed, and hopefully by proxy an end to the "Grayling Gaps" on the North TP.

The filling in of "The Grayling Gaps" between Collyhurst and Leeds should be top priority. Besides the section out of Manchester Victoria station, infill electrification from Stalybridge to Guide Bridge should be added. This to allow for diversions and all-electric stopping trains (as per present timetable). Furthermore, it would be better if the Windermere - Oxenholme electrification was extended to cover Hest Bank junction, and the Morecambe branch including Heysham Port. There could be scope for a Windermere - Oxenholme - Morecambe - Lancaster service, possibly calling at Bare Lane before reversing at Morecambe.

 

[tbtc]

perhaps the transport select committee have found some more money down the back of their sofa.................

There's not going to be any "Brexit dividend", because Brexit will shrink the economy (relative to not Brexitting) and we will therefore be poorer.

But the Government have to keep up the charade that leaving the EU will make us better off and pretend that this now permits us to spend the "savings" on some treats (partly as a short term sop, because there's going to be plenty of pain in the medium/longer terms).

So I wouldn't be surprised if, in the middle of the environmentally negative stories about Heathrow expansion (at the same time as cancelling the "green" Swansea tidal scheme), May's Government want to highlight some positive infrastructure spending, like "uncancelling" a couple of electrification schemes.

Given who is really in charge of the Government, I wouldn't be surprised if the first scheme to get the go ahead is Belfast - Derry though...

 

[JamesT]

Indeed. Electrification is disruptive Grayling tells us. So if you are building new or not on live railway, by definition if you electrify from the start you are not being disruptive.

The flip side is it costs money. What's the point of spending all the money on electrifying a route if the only stock that will be used on it for many years will be diesel only? As the new build sections will be hooking into non-electrified existing bits. That money could be spent on somewhere that can immediately make use of the wires.
My understanding is that East-West is being built with passive provision, so there should be far less disruption required if the decision is made later.

 

[B&I]

If he still has then I would be tempted to recall the role of Witchfinder General. Because after the latest round of timetable meltdown around the country, the mess that electrification schemes have become, not to mention the VTEC situation, if he can survive I can only assume he's using some form of dark magic!

Hell, I thought you were planning on him meeting a sticky end at the hands of Ian Ogilvy

 

[DarloRich]

There's not going to be any "Brexit dividend", because Brexit will shrink the economy (relative to not Brexitting) and we will therefore be poorer.

But the Government have to keep up the charade that leaving the EU will make us better off and pretend that this now permits us to spend the "savings" on some treats (partly as a short term sop, because there's going to be plenty of pain in the medium/longer terms).

So I wouldn't be surprised if, in the middle of the environmentally negative stories about Heathrow expansion (at the same time as cancelling the "green" Swansea tidal scheme), May's Government want to highlight some positive infrastructure spending, like "uncancelling" a couple of electrification schemes.

Given who is really in charge of the Government, I wouldn't be surprised if the first scheme to get the go ahead is Belfast - Derry though...

Private Eye have been scathing about the Swansea Tidal Lagoon project. IF they are right cancellation was entirely correct. BTW - I don't expect any brexit dividend. There isnt one.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The TSC has no real power other than to scrutinise transport policy, and maybe to embarrass a few people along the way.
Although they recommend "uncancelling" the cancelled electrification schemes, there is no money identified to deliver them.
In fact the review of CP6 enhancement schemes is depressing in the extreme.
DfT will finish off the overrun schemes from CP5 - and that's it.
Although Alstom has apparently made a proposal to electrify the MML, DfT appeared not to be aware of it.
This is exactly the MLP (market led proposal) scheme which DfT has said it is interested in pursuing, to get new money into NR.
I suspect nothing will change until Grayling moves on - ministers don't like changing their minds.
I also suspect they will wait till Andrew Haines gets his feet under the desk at NR and reviews the CP6 programme.
You only have to listen to the NHS funding debate to see the way things are going.
Rail comes well down the list of national priorities for funding (particularly after massively under-delivering in CP5).

 

[PeterC]

SNIP
Given who is really in charge of the Government, I wouldn't be surprised if the first scheme to get the go ahead is Belfast - Derry though...

Considering the party involved I think that it would have to be Belfast - Londonderry.

 

[CdBrux]

In fact the review of CP6 enhancement schemes is depressing in the extreme.
DfT will finish off the overrun schemes from CP5 - and that's it.

Grayling was quite explicit when announcing CP6 that priority was switching to maintenance and reliability of existing assets IIRC. One of the few clear things he has actually said. Enhancements though were open to proposals from other parties and also separate funding streams on a by project basis which to me makes more sense.
Which then makes this, if true:

Although Alstom has apparently made a proposal to electrify the MML, DfT appeared not to be aware of it.
This is exactly the MLP (market led proposal) scheme which DfT has said it is interested in pursuing, to get new money into NR.

rather a bad start.

 

[B&I]

Grayling was quite explicit when announcing CP6 that priority was switching to maintenance and reliability of existing assets IIRC. One of the few clear things he has actually said. Enhancements though were open to proposals from other parties and also separate funding streams on a by project basis which to me makes more sense.
Which then makes this, if true:



rather a bad start.

Somebody needs to tell him the benefit of a rolling electrification programme, even if it is small-scale and designed primarily for skills retention

 

[47802]

Somebody needs to tell him the benefit of a rolling electrification programme, even if it is small-scale and deaigned primarily for skills retention

The benefits being what exactly? apart from being years late, vastly over budget, shambolic timetables, Unions with some TOC's going on strike every few weeks, why invest in a Railway which simply not delivering?

 

[Mikey C]

Aren't the Bristol Temple Meads and Oxford schemes deferred rather than cancelled?

 

[AndrewE]

Somebody needs to tell him the benefit of a rolling electrification programme, even if it is small-scale and deaigned primarily for skills retention

Politicians don't do long-term thinking in case you hadn't noticed, and this lot refuse to even recognise the concept of joined-up thinking!

 

[snowball]

Aren't the Bristol Temple Meads and Oxford schemes deferred rather than cancelled?

Yes. The MPs' report doesn't mention them (except to show them on a map) but the Railnews report has added a reference to Chippenham-Bristol TM.

 

[The Ham]

The benefits being what exactly? apart from being years late, vastly over budget, shambolic timetables, Unions with some TOC's going on strike every few weeks, why invest in a Railway which simply not delivering?

Re-read your post and imagine the result of rather than trying to do 900 miles of electrification in 5 years rather there had been 2,000 miles of electrification over 20 years and answer the question, "what would have been different?"

I can give you a free answers, there would have been trained staff who knew what they were doing at every stage of the process, meaning errors would have been less likely.

NR would have had a better understanding of how quickly they could deliver the wires.

Only one or two TOC's would have had new wires meaning that the risk to timetables being significantly less and any delays having less of a problem.

Date I say it, we may have even been able to scrap the Pacers a good few years ago. However we would have certainly have had wires on the GWML, MML and the like some time ago. Along with quite a few lines which we probably wouldn't see wires on for a decade or more.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Politicians don't do long-term thinking in case you hadn't noticed, and this lot refuse to even recognise the concept of joined-up thinking!

What is HS2 then?

 

[47802]

Re-read your post and imagine the result of rather than trying to do 900 miles of electrification in 5 years rather there had been 2,000 miles of electrification over 20 years and answer the question, "what would have been different?"

I can give you a free answers, there would have been trained staff who knew what they were doing at every stage of the process, meaning errors would have been less likely.

NR would have had a better understanding of how quickly they could deliver the wires.

Only one or two TOC's would have had new wires meaning that the risk to timetables being significantly less and any delays having less of a problem.

Date I say it, we may have even been able to scrap the Pacers a good few years ago. However we would have certainly have had wires on the GWML, MML and the like some time ago. Along with quite a few lines which we probably wouldn't see wires on for a decade or more.

But that's not where we are is it. I see little point in progressing the TPE route until some sort of decision is made regarding an HS3/NPR route is made, the East West link I would agree that wants looking at again even if you stick to the latest idea of it being a purely a commuter route and not a Freight route it probably should be electrified from the start, Cardiff Swansea I see little merit in that at present, IET should be able to work that section of the route perfectly well on Diesel and Manchester Swansea are likely to be diesel worked for some time with the new DMU order.

Above all else the railway needs to start delivering on the existing huge investment that has been made, and produce further schemes at an affordable price, already there seem to be whispers that Manchester - Preston may not be ready even by December.