The key points are as follows:
- a 4tph service from Blackfriars via the Catford Loop is needed; especially at peak time.
- You need a connection from places like Denmark Hill and Peckham Rye to Victoria but soon there will be 4tph from Lewisham to Victoria enabling same-platform interchange at Peckham. There is also heavy traffic from Denmark Hill to Victoria.
- You need a solid 4tph from Bromley South to Victoria, all stops from Shortlands to Brixton. At peak times, you have the additional services from Beckenham to Blackfriars which calls into question whether the Chatham Main Line could in fact be used as a ‘mostly decelerated’ Route.
- Ramsgate & Dover trains will soon have to stop everywhere including Farningham Road and Sole Street. Realistically to suggest they also need calls at places like Beckenham or Herne Hill is somewhat unacceptable.
- Assessing the impact of a possible ‘takeover’ of the Wimbledon to Sutton route by some form of strange tram / guided busway (the former I agree with especially if they have the sense to route it from South Merton to Morden South via Morden LUL on Road; and also add a stop at Reigate Avenue and, after Sutton town centre, go down to the Royal Marsden and assume the formation of the route to Epsom Downs), you must suggest a future Wimbledon - Tooting - Thameslink service would be of such low demand it wouldn’t warrant a through service to St Albans.
Therefore my opinion is the following:
- Open the Wimbledon - Sutton - Epsom Downs route as a Tram.
- With Crossrail 2 likely to further chip away at demand, offer up a quarter-hourly service Victoria - Brixton - Herne Hill - Tulse Hill - Streatham - Tooting - Haydons Road - Wimbledon operated by the South Central franchisee.
- Turn over the Victoria - Orpington all stopper via Beckenham to Thameslink. The cross-platform interchange at Herne Hill would mean overall convenience would not be affected.
- Operate the Thameslink > Gillingham / Rainham service via Elephant & Herne; stopping at Elephant, Herne, Beckenham Jn, Bromley South and stops to Medway.
- Operate the additional 4tph Orpington via Catford 700s calling at all stops.
- Operate the Thameslink > Ashford service via Denmark Hill with a call at Denmark Hill and then Bromley South.
- Operate the 2tph to Ramsgate & Dover via the Main Line; flighted to have a good path fast to Bromley South.
- Operate an additional 2tph as Victoria - Sevenoaks to cover off Eynsford with stops at Brixton, Herne Hill, Penge East, Beckenham Junction, Shortlands and Bromley South then stops to Sevenoaks.
- If capacity for 8tph doesn’t exist to Orpington, cut one Thameslink > Herne > Orpington short at Beckenham with the Victoria to Sevenoaks behind it for quick connections to Shortlands and Bromley.
- Have the ability to run an additional 2tph via the Main or Loop at peak time to Ashford from Victoria if needed.
- Offer a half-hourly service from Cannon Street to Broadstairs via Chatham as now at peak times.
- Have the ability to extend 1tph Thameslink > Gillingham / Rainham (via Longfield) down to Canterbury East to give through journeys and also to serve Newington and Teynham; accelerating services from Victoria to Thanet and Dover.