Could a Sleeper service run to Wick?

[BRX]

The sleeper costs aren’t ‘fluffed up’ at all. You could estimate it the other way ie ‘top down’ using resource miles / resource hours as a percentage of the CS costs.

ORR data suggests it cost £53m to run the CS in 2017/18.

Isn't this the figure before it's set off against revenue?

Figures mentioned here are a subsidy (ie cost to the public) of £16M. (You can add a few more M for Serco losses, but the figure comes to less than half the £53M you quote)

 

[Elwyn]

I live in Northern Ireland which, like Orkney, is separated from the mainland by a bit of water and then some terrain that means trains (from Stranraer) don't travel very fast to the Central belt. There are periodic calls for a bridge, a tunnel or even a train ferry between Larne & Stranraer/Cairnryan but the reality is that no foot passenger travels that way now. It’s just too slow. I haven’t used that route for 6 or 7 years and then it was because I had a car full of equipment. I fly regularly from Belfast to Edinburgh (which must be broadly comparable to Wick/ Orkney to Edinburgh). It takes 45 minutes and with Easyjet booked in advance is often about £50 return or less (hand baggage only). You can easily get over and back in day. 2 airlines fly the route and there are about 6 flights a day so there must be about 600 people or more making that journey each way every day but I have never met anyone who wants a train service (overnight or day) between Belfast and Edinburgh. For folk living in Northern Ireland flying has become the standard method of travel for “foot passengers”. I feel pretty certain folk in Orkney and Wick take a similar view on their journeys south to the Central belt and elsewhere. There’s no viable market for this type of overnight rail service, I think.


I don’t agree with the “No-one knows for sure unless a proper trial is run” view. You wouldn’t need to do that (and it would be extremely expensive). There are plenty of travel analysis methods which can assess the market for a fraction of the cost. But experience in Ireland tells me that apart from passengers travelling for a treat, novelty, aversion to flying or some other similar reason, a sleeper is not going to attract a lot of all year round custom.

 

[Journeyman]

In that case, maybe it's time to elaborate on my Wick to Weymouth Harbour sleeper vision......

Watch out for capacity constraints. I think you should factor in reopening Woodhead and the Great Central Main Line to make sure you don't get in the way of anything else. Actually, to be on the safe side, throw in the S&D as well.

 

[BRX]

I live in Northern Ireland which, like Orkney, is separated from the mainland by a bit of water and then some terrain that means trains (from Stranraer) don't travel very fast to the Central belt. There are periodic calls for a bridge, a tunnel or even a train ferry between Larne & Stranraer/Cairnryan but the reality is that no foot passenger travels that way now. It’s just too slow. I haven’t used that route for 6 or 7 years and then it was because I had a car full of equipment. I fly regularly from Belfast to Edinburgh (which must be broadly comparable to Wick/ Orkney to Edinburgh). It takes 45 minutes and with Easyjet booked in advance is often about £50 return or less (hand baggage only). You can easily get over and back in day. 2 airlines fly the route and there are about 6 flights a day so there must be about 600 people or more making that journey each way every day but I have never met anyone who wants a train service (overnight or day) between Belfast and Edinburgh. For folk living in Northern Ireland flying has become the standard method of travel for “foot passengers”. I feel pretty certain folk in Orkney and Wick take a similar view on their journeys south to the Central belt and elsewhere. There’s no viable market for this type of overnight rail service, I think.


I don’t agree with the “No-one knows for sure unless a proper trial is run” view. You wouldn’t need to do that (and it would be extremely expensive). There are plenty of travel analysis methods which can assess the market for a fraction of the cost. But experience in Ireland tells me that apart from passengers travelling for a treat, novelty, aversion to flying or some other similar reason, a sleeper is not going to attract a lot of all year round custom.

Belfast is not really comparable because it's a much bigger population (by orders of magnitude) compared with Caithness or Orkney. As I understand it, the low-cost carriers like Easyjet rely on economies of scale that mean that they are never going to serve airports with small populations. Hence the high cost of fares from those small airports, and the Air Discount Scheme I mention above, which requires significant public subsidy.

If I were coming at this discussion from the climate change/air pollution/noise pollution angle, I'd be suggesting there could be good arguments for reinstating sleeper services from Stranraer along with a change in policy as regards air travel.

I'm not focusing on that angle for the Wick sleeper idea because I accept that it becomes hard to argue for a small operation, although it could become relevant if we were looking at potential scalability.

 

[Northhighland]

Staff: Given the length of the journey, and ECS either end it would need two drivers for each train each way. Same for the guards. 4 of each, every night. Standard cover ratio is 2. So 8 of each. On board customer service crew - given the train formation proposed, 2 for each service, lodging every other night. Cover ratio may not be 2, but not far off. Another 8. All on permanent nights. Cleaners / bed making / linen washing etc at either end. Easily another 4 people. A couple of supervisors and/or a manager to run it each night. That’s 30 people already, and assumes that all the operational tasks are covered by these guys - shunting, cleaning, stocking up, welcoming, station duties etc. Also salary is only around 60-70% of staff cost; you have to add employers NI, pension, and other benefits. That’s at least £1.5m on staff costs, almost certainly more.

Rolling stock. Let’s assume someone gets the coaches for free (They won’t). They will need maintenance (where?), and daily tanking / emptying. Given the fleet size, a self contained maintenance operation wouldn’t be sensible, so you need to hire in. Easily £0.4m, to include parts and consumables.

Haulage. Will need to hire & maintain locos, or buy at least 3. Either way you won’t get much change out of £300kpa per loco including maintenance, but let’s be optimistic and say £0.8m for the 3.

Fuel. This sort of train will be lucky to do 1mpg (rather less than the helicopter, incidentally). Central belt to Wick via Aberdeen will use over £1000 worth each way (at the costs rail companies pay for diesel). £0.6m.

Track access costs. There would be a fixed charge per train, plus a variable charge per vehicle mile. Given the type of train I’d expect the former to be in the range of £1000-£1500per train, and the latter to be about £2/mile. Let’s go low, and call it £1500 / train total. Another £1m.

That’s £4.3m on optimistic assumptions, one of which is the the rolling stock is free.

Oh, but then there’s lots of other costs in running a rail service. How do you buy a ticket? Who decides on pricing? Marketing? Who staffs control and on call? Who does a customer call if there’s a problem? Safety management systems? Contract management? Insurance? Finance? HR? Who runs the whole thing? Of course this could all be subsumed within CS or Scotrail if they got the contract. If it’s wasn’t Scotrail, there would have to be arrangements made and paid for to access the stations. They would know that and price accordingly. All of this is another half million or so for this size of operation. And finally, why would any operator want to do this if there wasn’t a little profit at the end? Let’s say a very modest 4%.

That now adds up to a round £5m.

Wow. That is some cost profile. Ordinary person in the street wouldn’t ever guess that costs were so high. As you say you are being conservative costs probably nearer £6m.

That sums of money could subsidise a lot of flying. Scary the cost of running a railway. Also you would struggle to get an operator. Wick is far away companies would not like the reputations risk of things going wrong so far from a main base. This would be a factor. Along with the fact even with a refurb the coaches are at the end of life. Politicians will be wary of the replacement costs in times of scarce resource.

 

[Northhighland]

Another number to throw into the discussion -

The 'Air Discount Scheme' which is available to residents of various islands as well as those living in Caithness and NW Scotland, and which gives a 50% discount on air fares, cost £8.6M in 2017-2018.

I've not been able to find the relevant statistics, but it would certainly be interesting to untangle the proportion of this spent on flights from Wick, and add that to the proportion of the HIA subsidy that can be allocated to operating Wick airport.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=2ahUKEwiZp--Mn8jjAhWKRhUIHRLqAL4QFjAGegQIBxAC&url=https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/minutes/2018/11/adt-highlands-and-islands-working-group-papers-october-2018/documents/paper-3---air-discount-scheme---public-service-obligations/paper-3---air-discount-scheme---public-service-obligations/govscot%3Adocument/Paper%2B3%2B-%2BAir%2Bdiscount%2Bscheme%2B-%2Bpublic%2Bservice%2Bobligations.pdf&usg=AOvVaw14-_Kl3LVF8meKNVpsK-Ad

Air discount scheme covers all rural areas. Costs will be lowest from Wick of all HIAL airports. Islands will see a lot more traffic.

 

[BRX]

Having done what I should have done earlier - reading the Hitrans report properly - they have cost estimates in there. For the best value option it comes out around £5M. Somewhat less than half of that recovered through ticket revenue meaning a subsidy in the region of £3-4M per year.

 

[Bald Rick]

Having done what I should have done earlier - reading the Hitrans report properly - they have cost estimates in there. For the best value option it comes out around £5M. Somewhat less than half of that recovered through ticket revenue meaning a subsidy in the region of £3-4M per year.

Well there you go! Seems like my estimate was fluff-less. Perhaps I should go into consultancy

I’d be interested in how much of that revenue would be new to rail, and not transferred from the existing operations. It may well all be, but also might not.

 

[BRX]

Well there you go! Seems like my estimate was fluff-less. Perhaps I should go into consultancy

I’d be interested in how much of that revenue would be new to rail, and not transferred from the existing operations. It may well all be, but also might not.

It seems plausible that it could also generate some revenue new to rail, and spent with other operators, for example some might opt to go by sleeper in one direction and return by day train instead of doing the entire journey by another mode.

 

[najaB]

But once you start saying the business case for a fixed link is boosted by removing public services from an island then people are less likely to be supportive.

I think a fixed link would actually increase public service provision on the islands by moving the centre of of mass further to the north. It would make sense to move things to Orkney from Wick/Thurso rather than the other way around.

 

[Altnabreac]

I think a fixed link would actually increase public service provision on the islands by moving the centre of of mass further to the north. It would make sense to move things to Orkney from Wick/Thurso rather than the other way around.

Quite possibly but promising to close Caithness General Hospital and Wick Airport is not anymore of a vote winner than Kirkwall Airport and the Balfour.

Particularly given the political dynamics where Caithness has been a more fruitful vote source than Orkney for the current Government.

 

[najaB]

Quite possibly but promising to close Caithness General Hospital and Wick Airport is not anymore of a vote winner than Kirkwall Airport and the Balfour.

Particularly given the political dynamics where Caithness has been a more fruitful vote source than Orkney for the current Government.

The normal way around that is to say that the fixed link "Will improve connectivity and service provision for the people of Caithness and Orkney" and let each side draw their own conclusions.

 

[liam456]

Well, I'll give this thread something - and to be clear I'm not being at all sarcastic when I write this, I'm genuinely impressed.

Most of what's written in the main Caledonian Sleeper area is ill informed opinion based on the previous poster's equally ill informed opinion, whether on the subject of haggis supplies running critically low or wakeup calls coming too early.

That we're able to have a properly informed discussion about the costs of a seemingly crackpot scheme using old mk3 sleepers versus its preposterous alternative, the use of helicopters on demand, is a great tribute to the quality of this forum.

Keep up the good work.

It is absolutely incredible when you think about it. This idea for a sleeper is so hare brained that Bald Rick has to spend his time actually seriously entertaining the idea and comparing it to using private helicopters, and still comes off better in the argument!

 

[Clansman]

It is absolutely incredible when you think about it. This idea for a sleeper is so hare brained that Bald Rick has to spend his time actually seriously entertaining the idea and comparing it to using private helicopters, and still comes off better in the argument!

It certainly is outstanding stuff

 

[cb a1]

Don't know if this is in another thread, but this thread seemed appropriate for a article I've just read in this fortnight's Local Transport Today.

Goodnight to Far North sleeper train proposal
06 December 2019

Transport Scotland has rejected a proposal for an overnight train service between Thurso and central Scotland.

Hitrans, the Highlands and Islands transport partnership, initially proposed a sleeper service using 1980s-built Mark 3 sleeper carriages that are surplus since the recent introduction of new Mark 5 carriages on the Anglo-Scottish sleeper routes.

Transport Scotland rejected the proposal, citing concerns about demand, the £2.5m estimated annual subsidy requirement, the condition of the rolling stock, the cost of making it compliant with the EU’s PRM TSI specifications for people with disabilities, and depot access.

Hitrans subsequently prepared a revised proposal for an overnight service with no sleeper accommodation. This would feature high-speed trains with four carriages, three with luxury seating and the fourth with space for bikes/sports equipment, parcels, catering and some seating.

But partnership manager Frank Roach told the Hitrans board: “Transport Scotland has ... concluded that whilst there is some merit, at a conceptual level, in having an overnight connection between the North of Scotland and the Central Belt, the proposals as presented generate a number of substantial issues regarding patronage, subsidy level, and a range of operational risks. Accordingly, the agency is not in a position to support the proposition.”

 

[Journeyman]

Don't know if this is in another thread, but this thread seemed appropriate for a article I've just read in this fortnight's Local Transport Today.

The plan to use HSTs is even sillier.

 

[Indigo Soup]

The plan to use HSTs is even sillier.

At first I thought it might be a proposal to use HSTs similar to those Scotrail is trying to deploy to accelerate Far North services. That, whilst wildly optimistic for about a dozen reasons, would at least suggest some familiarity with the real world.

 

[HSTEd]

Should have sleeper Zeppelins.

Would get the tourist traffic if nothing else.

 

[najaB]

Should have sleeper Zeppelins.

I'd pay for that!

 

[cb a1]

Should have sleeper Zeppelins.

Would get the tourist traffic if nothing else.

But do you want it to be a capitalist or a socialist zeppelin - http://timharford.com/2019/11/cautionary-tales-ep-4-the-deadly-airship-race/ ?

 

[Meerkat]

“Whilst there is some merit, at a conceptual level”
made me laugh. ‘Nice idea son’ [pats on head, walks away trying to keep a straight face]

 

[Bletchleyite]

“Whilst there is some merit, at a conceptual level”
made me laugh. ‘Nice idea son’ [pats on head, walks away trying to keep a straight face]

Google "Anglo-EU Translation Guide" - this one clearly means "there is no merit whatsoever in this idea"

 

[Journeyman]

“Whilst there is some merit, at a conceptual level”
made me laugh. ‘Nice idea son’ [pats on head, walks away trying to keep a straight face]

No doubt Mr. Roach will be along with some more plans soon.

 

[jagardner1984]

The Orkney Rail Tunnel ? Inverness Ullapool Stornaway Cross Rail with Parry People Movers ?

I look forward to the next chapter in his Rail Blue Sky Thinking Book ...

(which makes him think, Open Top Sprinters on the Far North ?)

 

[JKF]

The plan to use HSTs is even sillier.

Mind, I’d still love to see an HST set made up with Mk3 sleepers.

(And yes, I know they’re the wrong voltage)

 

[HSTEd]

The Orkney Rail Tunnel ? Inverness Ullapool Stornaway Cross Rail with Parry People Movers ?

Ironically an Orkney Road/Rail crossing would probably have better economics.
It would, if nothing else, permit the rapid development of Scapa Flow as a deep water container port.

 

[Meerkat]

It would, if nothing else, permit the rapid development of Scapa Flow as a deep water container port.

that’s more unlikely than a Wick sleeper!
A long way from any markets and a long way off the shipping routes - have a play with this
https://www.shipmap.org/

 

[HSTEd]

that’s more unlikely than a Wick sleeper!
A long way from any markets and a long way off the shipping routes - have a play with this
https://www.shipmap.org/

With the way climate change is going, in 20 years it will be on the main route to the Far East!

 

[Bald Rick]

With the way climate change is going, in 20 years it will be on the main route to the Far East!

Maybe so, but that’s not a good reason to unload boxes a 250 mile journey from any substantial centres of demand.

 

[HSTEd]

Maybe so, but that’s not a good reason to unload boxes a 250 mile journey from any substantial centres of demand.

It is unlkely that the next generation of ultra large container ships will be able to traverse the southern North Sea.

Which means transhipping from Scapa Flow to smaller ships would be a reasonable option.

The only thing constraining container ship sizes is the Suez Canal, which obviously is no longer a restriction if we are going via the Pole, and the cut in container shipping prices of 30+% will stimulate even more demand for larger ships.