Bridge to Ireland possible rail link and tunnel

[HSTEd]

Again, nobody is saying that it can't be done, what is being questioned is if it makes any economic sense. It does not.

Well that depends on your economic assesment criteria.
Based on a hundred year life and the current cost of public borrowing, it probably does make sense.

Now that rather depends on how you go about it, does it not? A couple of nice big nuclear plants co-generating electricity would do quite nicely.

The capital cost of that plant will probably approach in magnitude the cost of the bridge structure.
I'm normally as gung ho for nuclear as anyone, but even I know its really rather expensive.

 

[Chester1]

Hilarious, a bridge from the middle of nowhere to an island that will soon be a foreign country. It’s just a distraction stunt, the opposite of ‘virtue signalling’ I guess.

I am not sure why everyone posting here seems 100% sure Northern Ireland is leaving the UK very soon. I think its extremely likely in the long term but whats the evidence that it will happen soon? Even Sinn Fein are only talking about a referendum in 5 years. The actual departure need will take longer and needs to correspond with an Irish general election as per Good Friday agreement. On that basis the earliest sensible date of unity would be around 1st January 2028. If the front stop arrangement works after the brexit transition ends then the economic arguments in favour of unity will be blunted and unity could be a generation away. Varadkar more or less admitted last year that the republic is not ready for unity just yet because there is no consensus on how a united Ireland would be constitutionally structure, nor a plan to merge the different taxation and public services.

Unity is irrelevant if the republic agreed to underwrite half of the project in the event of a united Ireland. They would benefit from a major piece of infrastructure and it would only cost Irish taxpayers in the event of both unity and bankruptcy of the holding company.

I don't think the government will follow through with building a bridge or tunnel but politics isn't the biggest problem!

 

[najaB]

Well that depends on your economic assesment criteria.

The criteria would be if the bridge was provided £20B plus interest in benefit over the ferries. I haven't crunched the numbers but I doubt that it would unless you also build a line through from the landing point to the WCML/HS2 - which would probably double the costs.

The capital cost of that plant will probably approach in magnitude the cost of the bridge structure.
I'm normally as gung ho for nuclear as anyone, but even I know its really rather expensive.

I agree if we're talking about building plants to make hydrogen, but it changes completely if we talk about building plants that also produce hydrogen. That new generation of nuclear that's needed to meet CO2 targets? Why not make them 20% bigger and generate shed loads of H2 when electricity demand is lower.

 

[miami]

I am not sure why everyone posting here seems 100% sure Northern Ireland is leaving the UK very soon.

Northern Ireland or Scotland

Maybe Boris should have the bridge go via the Isle of Man to Heysham

 

[HSTEd]

I agree if we're talking about building plants to make hydrogen, but it changes completely if we talk about building plants that also produce hydrogen. That new generation of nuclear that's needed to meet CO2 targets? Why not make them 20% bigger and generate shed loads of H2 when electricity demand is lower.

In the reasonable build rate limit we tend to hit a limit where there is a minimum price of electricity caused by industrial customers using the electricity instead of gas.
This tends to put a floor on the price of hydrogen which is high enough to make it extermely expensive.

The criteria would be if the bridge was provided £20B plus interest in benefit over the ferries. I haven't crunched the numbers but I doubt that it would unless you also build a line through from the landing point to the WCML/HS2 - which would probably double the costs.

Well £20bn plus interest in the current interest environment is basically £300-400m/yr.
Given that NI-GB trade is something like £10bn in each direction, thats not hard to believe.

Hell, just people commuting out of NI into the Scottish economy, which is short labour, would make a huge difference.

The drag on the NI economy from the fares on the ferry is still going to come to £30-100m alone direct, let alone multiplier effects.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Northern Ireland or Scotland?

Both ,!

 

[Shimbleshanks]

Well, as they say, if you give engineers enough money they can build you anything. The problem with the NI-Scotland link is that it would go from NI to a bit of nowhere - Port Stewart? Mull of Kintyre? Then what?
The Anglesey-Dublin idea might actually be more viable even though the tunnel would be much longer - but then there's the cost of improving road and rail links along the North Wales Coast, at huge expense, assuming it can be done at all.

 

[HSTEd]

Well, as they say, if you give engineers enough money they can build you anything. The problem with the NI-Scotland link is that it would go from NI to a bit of nowhere - Port Stewart? Mull of Kintyre? Then what?

Or go to Stranraer, which is where most of NI's external trade goes anywaY?

 

[AlbertBeale]

Even if it's feasible at a sensible cost, which I doubt, and provides a positive BCR, which I doubt even more; the way politics are going in Scotland and Ireland, both ends might well be in non-UK countries before it's finished.

It's another barmy Johnsonism which will end up wasting a lot of money for little or no return, as per garden bridge, new Routemasters, etc.

Garden Bridge - absolutely - it was bonkers!

But the New Routemasters - when the back platforms were open - typically saved me 30% on my travel time around central London by bus. They were only "a waste of money" because bus users' time has no financial value attached to it (because we aren't important like rail passengers, whose time savings are counted).

 

[AlbertBeale]

T

The water isn't really deep by the standards of bridges under design and engineering consideration today.
The weather isn't particularly bad compared to what large condeep type oil platforms endure every day in the Northern North Sea and arctic oceans.

In Norway they want to put bridge piers in 1500m of water.
245m of water is absolutely nothing.

Building this bridge is also likely to be far cheaper than building, and paying for the operation of, the electrolysis capability to provide NI-GB zero carbon flights in future.

Also the munitions is sort of a red herring, since the size of the bridge foundations will be a tiny portion of the bridge track.
So anything that might be dangerous can be cleared by UUVs or divers before we drop the GBS type structures in.

Or we can use TLP type structures for bridge piers, as proposed in Norway, to further reduce the footprint of the bridge in the area.

EDIT:
Take the Tsing Ma bridge.
~1377m combined road-rail span.
Bridge towers are apparently ~208m above sea level.
Taking a track across the crossing from vicinity Whitehead to vicnity Portslogan, the maximum depth is only 245m apparently.

That gives us a maximum pier height, even if the piers are not optimised to reduce this value, of 453m.

The Troll A condeep platform structure is 472m tall.

So the depths are easily achievable.

TLP? Should I know what that means? GBS?

 

[Ianno87]

I do think the *principle* of having a bridge is fine. The *practicalities*, however are another matter entirely...

 

[najaB]

Well £20bn plus interest in the current interest environment is basically £300-400m/yr.
Given that NI-GB trade is something like

The drag on the NI economy from the fares on the ferry is still going to come to £30-100m alone direct, let alone multiplier effects.

Then make the ferries free and save £200M a year.

 

[edwin_m]

I am not sure why everyone posting here seems 100% sure Northern Ireland is leaving the UK very soon. I think its extremely likely in the long term but whats the evidence that it will happen soon? Even Sinn Fein are only talking about a referendum in 5 years. The actual departure need will take longer and needs to correspond with an Irish general election as per Good Friday agreement. On that basis the earliest sensible date of unity would be around 1st January 2028. If the front stop arrangement works after the brexit transition ends then the economic arguments in favour of unity will be blunted and unity could be a generation away. Varadkar more or less admitted last year that the republic is not ready for unity just yet because there is no consensus on how a united Ireland would be constitutionally structure, nor a plan to merge the different taxation and public services.

Unity is irrelevant if the republic agreed to underwrite half of the project in the event of a united Ireland. They would benefit from a major piece of infrastructure and it would only cost Irish taxpayers in the event of both unity and bankruptcy of the holding company.

I don't think the government will follow through with building a bridge or tunnel but politics isn't the biggest problem!

The timescales for Irish unification are long, but so are the timescales for a bridge. Similar to HS2 it is probably going to be 30 years from the initial study to completion (if it happens at all). So potentially a nice way for a unified Ireland to trade with an independent Scotland without the bother of going via England and two hard borders.

Holyhead-Dublin probably makes more sense in terms of linking the main populations on both sides of the Irish Sea, and although the crossing itself is longer there are already fairly reasonable road and rail links to both ends. But not where the politics is taking us at present.

 

[Shimbleshanks]

Or go to Stranraer, which is where most of NI's external trade goes anywaY?

Not really, only the stuff heading to and from lowland Scotland. Via Liverpool or Dublin-Holyhead are equally important if not more so. And you'd have the cost of rebuilding the direct Port Road line to Stranraer and upgrading the West Coast main line north of Crewe/Preston to carry the extra Irish traffic

 

[HSTEd]

T


TLP? Should I know what that means? GBS?

Sorry, oil rig terminology.

GBS are Gravity Base Structures, essentially a huge pile of concrete that sits on the sea floor by virtue of massing several hundred thousand tonnes.
TLPs are tension leg platforms, which are floating structures that are anchored to the sea floor by tension anchors and are "hoisted" downwards into the sea, so the anchors remain taught in all sea conditions.

TLPs can be built in water down to 1500m or so, but GBS are often preferred in shallower waters because they are big and dumb and can be built without sophisticated shipyards.

You just need a means to pump concrete and make wooden shutterwork.

Then make the ferries free and save £200M a year.

Well that doesn't do anything about the planes does it?
Or the carbon emissions from Marine Oil fueled ferries.

Not really, only the stuff heading to and from lowland Scotland. Via Liverpool or Dublin-Holyhead are equally important if not more so. And you'd have the cost of rebuilding the direct Port Road line to Stranraer and upgrading the West Coast main line north of Crewe/Preston to carry the extra Irish traffic

A 100km single track line from Stranraer to Dumfries and a few kilometres of electrification to the WCML.
That would easily suffice for an hourly through train.
A single dynamic loop will get you half hourly if you want.

It's not going to break the bank.

As for the WCML upgrade.... the traffic is a rounding error.

 

[Meerkat]

So how long would a passenger train from London, via HS2 and this bridge, to Belfast take?
And would it make Europe to Ireland container trains via the Channel Tunnel viable (ignoring English capacity issues)?

 

[miami]

London to Stranraer is currently about 7 hours excluding interchange
Stranraer to Belfast would add about 30 minutes

HS2 will drop that 7h30 to about 6h30.

If HS2 extended to Carlisle, then a new HS alignment through Dumfries, averaging 200mph (about the Manchester Airport-OOC speed), non-stop would take about 2h30.

More interestingly would be a freight service - Liverpool to Belfast at 150mph would be 2 hours, far faster than the ferry.

 

[edwin_m]

More interestingly would be a freight service - Liverpool to Belfast at 150mph would be 2 hours, far faster than the ferry.

Nobody runs freight at anywhere near that speed, which would still be slower than passenger so not able to use HS2 during daytime (and it's closed at night for engineering access). Just about the only technically feasible option at 100mph+ would be light parcels etc, but there you are up against airfreight with a depot-to-depot time of around 2hr between any British and Irish major city pairs not just Liverpool and Belfast.

 

[DJ_K666]

You'd also have to decide if there's to be a dedicated line on the Irish side or mixed gauge as Irish railways run on 5'3" track. If you're ya;ling HS2 links then separation would probably be best, otherwise you'd have to have a mixed track gauge GWR style

 

[edwin_m]

You'd also have to decide if there's to be a dedicated line on the Irish side or mixed gauge as Irish railways run on 5'3" track. If you're ya;ling HS2 links then separation would probably be best, otherwise you'd have to have a mixed track gauge GWR style

Holyhead-Dublin would largely avoid that issue too, as it's unlikely passenger trains would run any further than Dublin itself with onward connections. A Scotland-NI tunnel would need conversion or a new railway at least as far as Belfast (plus new railway or a huge upgrade in Scotland).

 

[najaB]

Well that doesn't do anything about the planes does it?

And bridge between NI and Scotland doesn't do anything about planes between Norwich and Aberdeen. But pumping money into hydrogen production can.

 

[Tobbes]

And the Port Road was pretty sinuous, so an HSR alignment would be presumably be all new - though you'd hope that it would provide local connectivity Carlisle-Dumfries-Kirkudbright-Newton Stewart-Stranraer.

 

[HSTEd]

And the Port Road was pretty sinuous, so an HSR alignment would be presumably be all new - though you'd hope that it would provide local connectivity Carlisle-Dumfries-Kirkudbright-Newton Stewart-Stranraer.

Between Dumfries and Stranraer tehre are very few people to use any local service though.
So I have to question how useful it is.

A straight line from Gretna to Stranraer is only about 125km.
You could sustain a half hourly service to Belfast with a largely single track line and one dynamic loop.

I'd be more interested in a total reconstruction of the Stranraer-Ayr railway to handle local trains from Glasgow to Belfast.

 

[najaB]

A straight line from Gretna to Stranraer is only about 125km.
You could sustain a half hourly service to Belfast with a largely single track line and one dynamic loop.

I seem to remember that while that line might be straight, it's not exactly level. Again, nothing that modern engineering can't overcome but it's adding even more cost to a scheme whose benefit will be marginal at best.

 

[randyrippley]

Northern Ireland or Scotland

Maybe Boris should have the bridge go via the Isle of Man to Heysham

The Lune Deep would get in the way

 

[HSTEd]

I seem to remember that while that line might be straight, it's not exactly level. Again, nothing that modern engineering can't overcome but it's adding even more cost to a scheme whose benefit will be marginal at best.

There is about 40km or so of new line to Girvan (the only alignment is so bad as to be functionally useless) and about 125km or so to Gretna.

The terrain is somewhat challenging but less people around to complain.
It's not going to make or break the scheme honestly.

Going to assume there would be negligible rail freight opportunites (at least initially) due to the break of gauge so it simplifies things considerably.

 

[Tobbes]

The Port Road did have some comparatively steep gradients (Wikipedia cites a ruling grade of 1 in 72), but that should be well within the capabilities of an HSR.

 

[HSTEd]

The Port Road did have some comparatively steep gradients (Wikipedia cites a ruling grade of 1 in 72), but that should be well within the capabilities of an HSR.

The problem is the journey time in ~1960 was close to 3 hours end to end, and that was for a named express train.

It might be faster with modern units, but you need a travel time more like half an hour.

 

[Shimbleshanks]

A 100km single track line from Stranraer to Dumfries and a few kilometres of electrification to the WCML.
That would easily suffice for an hourly through train.
A single dynamic loop will get you half hourly if you want.

It's not going to break the bank.

As for the WCML upgrade.... the traffic is a rounding error.

But if the traffic is so paltry, why go to the huge expense of building a bridge over the sea?

 

[HSTEd]

But if the traffic is so paltry, why go to the huge expense of building a bridge over the sea?

Because the WCML is one of the most intensively operated railways in the world?
Traffic can be a rounding error on it whilst still being very significant.

And the bridge isn't really very expensive in terms of the trade between NI and GB, and given our carbon cut commitments......
Also remember that the bridge has an extremely long operational life, and will be around long enough to cause second order economic effects that will be extremely significant.

Multiple generations would grow up with the bridge in existance, which will lead to significant changes in travel patterns and the like.