Future of 22x Units

[The Planner]

Maybe Birmingham to Leicester too, but not Stansted as they are too long for the platform.

They would be appalling on the Leicester services with the amount of stops.

 

[Jozhua]

Politicians are good at producing hot air, but until someone says otherwise, a ban on diesel only trains in 2040 is government policy.

I’m not suggesting the Voyagers are going in the bin now, but that anything done to them has a fairly limited shelf life. One reason why you might consider a major upgrade like this is to stave off the replacement date, but if you can’t use them past the deadline then that’s not going to help.

Yes, people are suggesting re-engining them now, but with what? Comparable trains like the 175/180/185 use the same QSK19 engine, 195s use something smaller and less powerful so that doesn’t look suitable, and the 800s have something that’s too big to fit under a 22x. The HSTs had replacements in the VP185 and the MTU that had clear benefits in terms of economy and emissions. Is there something out there that could do the job, consume less, and emit less? I’d have thought the Rosco would be jumping at the chance, they get to look green and can probably charge the TOC more in leasing fees as the TOC would then save on their fuel costs.

That they haven’t suggests there’s no chance and the future is for the 22xs to be run as they are until their end of days when they can be replaced with a new build of something more efficient (probably bimode).

Oh diesel will be used past the deadline, trust me. In the next 20 years, do you see the MML, Cross Country routes from Aberdeen to Plymouth/Bournemouth and countless other areas they operate such as Nottingham - Skegness being electrified?

Considering the absolute chaos that was trying to get trains that reach even basic accessibility standards in by 2020.

In fact, the prospect of 'grandfather rights' might encourage TOC's to use them longer and keep refurbing, if that's what it takes.

As future replacements, a bi-mode with some petrochemical fuel source plus a pantograph would be able to replace the 22X's performance wise easy. If the ban on diesel only allows for bi-mode trains, that would be sensible. I don't see batteries or hydrogen providing a much better solution unless potentially impossible strides are made in regards to their production and capabilities.

I agree that 22x wouldn't be a natural fit for Northern, but neither were the 180s they ended up with for a while. Hopefully there'll be a better solution.

They'd be a better fit for Transpennine on the South or Scarborough services.

That and obviously Cross Country. The 222's could actually replace the HST's finally, with the 220/1's being used to double up existing sets. The HSTs were re-engined in around 2005 I believe, so by the time the 222's will be out of use at EMR (around 2024/5), then even the new engines will be the 20 years old. The power doors and other interior refurbs will have seen a good 6-7 years, so it would be fitting to see HSTs retire around then.

 

[greatvoyager]

That and obviously Cross Country. The 222's could actually replace the HST's finally, with the 220/1's being used to double up existing sets. The HSTs were re-engined in around 2005 I believe, so by the time the 222's will be out of use at EMR (around 2024/5), then even the new engines will be the 20 years old. The power doors and other interior refurbs will have seen a good 6-7 years, so it would be fitting to see HSTs retire around then.

That makes sense.

 

[Jozhua]

That makes sense.

Which is exactly why it won't happen, at least with the DFT the way it is!

 

[greatvoyager]

Which is exactly why it won't happen, at least with the DFT the way it is!

Haha, good point!

 

[greatvoyager]

Which is exactly why it won't happen, at least with the DFT the way it is!

Maybe one day things will change.

 

[Meerkat]

Any mileage in taking the engines off and using as PRM loco hauled?
Or are there enough Mk4s to cover all likely future needs when manual doors becomes unacceptable?

 

[greatvoyager]

Any mileage in taking the engines off and using as PRM loco hauled?
Or are there enough Mk4s to cover all likely future needs when manual doors becomes unacceptable?

Is there going to be much need for loco haulage though, other than the services that already have it?

 

[PauloDavesi]

Wherever these units are deployed, there is a need to totally refit the interiors into a more comfortable seat spacing, and ideally better seating too.
Having endured a relatively short journey on Sunday, from the Midlands to Bristol, I’d say that the seat pitch & comfort was below that provided by Low cost airlines.
there is no way I’d use that type of train for a trip to Scotland, especially as flying is more convenient, and often cheaper.
Obviously others may have differing views.

 

[Meerkat]

Is there going to be much need for loco haulage though, other than the services that already have it?

I was thinking in terms of replacing various mk2s that can’t live forever and have slam doors.
It depends how much work would be involved in taking the engines off and possibly increasing the number of seats. You wouldn’t lose a coach length for the DVT and you could leave one engine on to provide hotel power to increase haulage options.
I am pondering the last chance before scrapping options!!

 

[greatvoyager]

I was thinking in terms of replacing various mk2s that can’t live forever and have slam doors.
It depends how much work would be involved in taking the engines off and possibly increasing the number of seats. You wouldn’t lose a coach length for the DVT and you could leave one engine on to provide hotel power to increase haulage options.
I am pondering the last chance before scrapping options!!

Ah okay sorry I misunderstood... I think they'll probably all end up at XC until being withdrawn as life expired in the 2030s. The demand for them on those services is probably going to be enough to wear them out, unless XC maintenance is more streamlined.
In terms of loco hauled, I wonder if their age by the time that happens is going to mean caring for them would be more expensive than newer stock.

 

[gingertom]

Is there going to be much need for loco haulage though, other than the services that already have it?

what loco would you want to use? 90s don't have the top speed, 91s are on their last legs. Surely you don't want to haul these diesels with diesels?

 

[greatvoyager]

what loco would you want to use? 90s don't have the top speed, 91s are on their last legs. Surely you don't want to haul these diesels with diesels?

To be fair, it wasn't my suggestion, which is why I asked about the demand.

 

[gingertom]

I understand, it's an interesting idea. But as usual there are things that need thought through properly.

 

[greatvoyager]

I understand, it's an interesting idea. But as usual there are things that need thought through properly.

Agreed.

 

[greatvoyager]

I understand, it's an interesting idea. But as usual there are things that need thought through properly.

My preference is for all 22x units to join XC until they are life expired and withdrawn, because I'm not sure any other operator would be interested in them.

 

[gingertom]

My preference is for all 22x units to join XC until they are life expired and withdrawn, because I'm not sure any other operator would be interested in them.

Whilst I can see XC getting some to strengthen services and reduce overcrowding. I can't see them taking the entire fleet otherwise there'd be lots of fresh air carted around. Many on here have suggested all 4 car sets become 5, all 5s become 8 and retire the HSTs etc. All sensible suggestions but at the end of the day these machines are here to make money for the TOCs, the ROSCOs and the DfT. If they can get more "bums on seats" that more than covers the higher leasing costs and operating costs, it will happen; if it doesn't then things will stay as they are until they are run into the ground and need replaced with new stock.

 

[squizzler]

Whilst I can see XC getting some to strengthen services and reduce overcrowding. I can't see them taking the entire fleet otherwise there'd be lots of fresh air carted around.

I think it is great if there is a steady supply of voyagers from elsewhere as this would empirically test the elasticity of the market (whether it would expand to fill extra capacity) and provide valuable data in advance of ordering a full fleet replacement as to how large said replacement needs to be.

I suspect testing the market by such experimentation would be especially valuable on XC, since it is an oddball amongst intercity franchises (not anchored by London, etc). Operation princess resulted in an increased ridership that blindsided conventional passenger forecasting wisdom. Anecdotally the ridership growth would be still greater if capacity allowed it and there remains lots of suppressed demand on XC services.

 

[greatvoyager]

I think it is great if there is a steady supply of voyagers from elsewhere as this would empirically test the elasticity of the market (whether it would expand to fill extra capacity) and provide valuable data in advance of ordering a full fleet replacement as to how large said replacement needs to be.

I suspect testing the market by such experimentation would be especially valuable on XC, since it is an oddball amongst intercity franchises (not anchored by London, etc). Operation princess resulted in an increased ridership that blindsided conventional passenger forecasting wisdom. Anecdotally the ridership growth would be still greater if capacity allowed it and there remains lots of suppressed demand on XC services.

I agree, and I don't think many people would complain as long as there is extra capacity.

 

[Speed43125]

At this point I wish XC got all the 220s and 222s and then the 221s move to the West Coast and strengthen some of their services, maybe 14 coaches with 3 units type thing? But given that isn't happening, we are simply going to end up with a lot of wasted and spread out 22x units as we find some OAC that wants them, as XC is severely limited by platform lengths.

 

[greatvoyager]

At this point I wish XC got all the 220s and 222s and then the 221s move to the West Coast and strengthen some of their services, maybe 14 coaches with 3 units type thing? But given that isn't happening, we are simply going to end up with a lot of wasted and spread out 22x units as we find some OAC that wants them, as XC is severely limited by platform lengths.

To be fair, XC needs as much capacity as it can get. I don't think customers will care much if their train is too big for the selected stations with small platforms as long as they can sit down and are told where they need to be to alight.

 

[greatvoyager]

With the Virgin open access application withdrawn, does that give more chance of the units going to XC?

 

[VT 390]

With the Virgin open access application withdrawn, does that give more chance of the units going to XC?

I would think so as I don't think there are any other routes which need 125mph end door diesel stock, plus the fact that XC would need little or no training for its staff on the Avanti 221's as they are so similar to their 220/221 units they already have.

 

[Speed43125]

I don't think customers will care much if their train is too big for the selected stations with small platforms as long as they can sit down and are told where they need to be to alight.

Sure, but none of the 22x have (A)SDO right? so surely you could not run trains longer than platforms.

 

[gsnedders]

Sure, but none of the 22x have (A)SDO right? so surely you could not run trains longer than platforms.

Is there anywhere where they don't already run in double on the XC network?

 

[MarkyT]

Sure, but none of the 22x have (A)SDO right? so surely you could not run trains longer than platforms.

At Reading, platform #3 is routinely used by Cross country. It is a terminal bay and can't hold more than a single five-car unit. Longer trains on the particular services concerned could notionally be relocated to other platforms but there is little room on the Main side and increasing pressure on the relief side with terminating Crossrail, future Heathrow western connection services planned, possible freight growth etc, so it might be difficult. And what could #3 be used for instead? It might plausibly be extended to take a double unit but that would stretch right over Caversham Road bridge nearly to the Westbury Line Junction and block access to #1 and #2, so if they were abolished where could trains currently using them be accommodated? Some further junction alterations would be required to maintain access between #3 and the Festival Line (the bi-di underpass to the relief side).

 

[43055]

Is there anywhere where they don't already run in double on the XC network?

The double sets only really operate on the main cores where a regular daytime service operates (Glasgow/Manchester to Plymouth/ Bournemouth) so you never really get double sets up to Aberdeen for down to Penzance etc.

 

[greatvoyager]

I would think so as I don't think there are any other routes which need 125mph end door diesel stock, plus the fact that XC would need little or no training for its staff on the Avanti 221's as they are so similar to their 220/221 units they already have.

That was my thinking.

 

[bb21]

Discussions about accommodating longer XC trains at Reading is split off here.

 

[greatvoyager]

Whatever happens, no units are going to be available until 2022.