Proposals for "Northern arc": linking north Oxfordshire (Banbury) with Northampton and Peterborough

[Bald Rick]

I'm sure that @Bald Rick among others as one of said professionals will be delighted that you think he and his colleagues create a "song and dance cost wise"......

I would have commented earlier, but I was top of the bill at the Palladium tonight.

 

[BrianW]

But that's a daft example - there has *never* been a direct rail link between those two. And you'll always have people who make choices to live in one place and work somewhere else knowing full well they'll have a commute to go with it. That's not a justification for building a line from Uxbridge to Aylesbury.

And actually there is a *fairly* sensible rail option for that journey on existing network - Denham or West Ruislip to Aylesbury in a little over an hour..

Or Aylesbury- (Amersham)- Harrow on the Hill- Uxbridge

 

[si404]

Hardly excessive.

Never said it was - I said it was a lot compared to most of the rest of England. That's like saying tortoises are fast compared to snails.

10 miles in 10 years is the opposite of excessive - I didn't go further back and look at the early 2000s A43 dualling (finished in 2002), or any other scheme in the 00s. Just did the 10s.

You know what Hampshire got roadwise in the '10s? Some motorway widening that we discounted in Northants. Hertfordshire? Ditto. That's more excessive - excessively terrible!

Add in that (as I said), while opened as single carriageway, the Flore-Weedon bypass (that was branded as being all about Daventry) was planned as a dual carriageway and build as such when it came to earthworks - such future planning has barely been seen since the 80s.

There isn't a Daventry - East Northants corridor - and there will be even less so once the county council has gone.

Oh, I'm sorry, it's two corridors that meet each other end on in Northampton, and so might as well be considered one corridor.

The abolition of the county council will do jack to change travel patterns - unless they kill cross-border buses - which I doubt will happen as they'd have been cut already if they were going to be (the whole split is due to the council having no money and this saving it). And the EEH trying to become a sub-national transport authority will try and make sure there's cross-boundary cooperation.

 

[AlbertBeale]

I may be wrong but Northampton doesn't seem a place with any particular reason to go there from Banbury. Shopping and leisure facilities are more conveniently available / better in other nearby large places (e.g. Oxford, Birmingham, Bicester Village) - and likely would be even with a direct rail line - and Banbury is a fairly buoyant employment centre in itself nowadays. I'm not saying there would be no-one wanting to go there, but I'm not sure why it would get any larger a flow than, say, Banbury to Coventry does now, which wouldn't (I'd guess, I'm not an economist) on its own support a rail link.

But surely the point is that none of these things is "on its own". Any of the links suggested give new point-to-point journeys between the places newly connected, but also provide longer connections - both through ones and ones with changes. The Banbury Coventry line is useful not just for that local flow, nor just for longer journeys, but because it provides both. That's exactly why an increasing "density of interconnectedness" of pubic transport provision has a multiplier effect in terms of usefulness.

 

[class26]

Sorry, but the stats don't bear out your claim of "significant" number - a small minority would be far more accurate.



Where are you getting 300,000 from?

Corby + Kettering + Wellingborough's about 200,000 population. And across the whole of Northants you've only got about 20,000 unemployed (popn of 750,000) - so a relatively low unemployment rate - so few have the need to commute to Peterboro - and if you go east from Peterboro into the Fens you've got higher unemployment and worse deprivation. If anything that's where the focus for Peterboro should be.

I probably ought to add that the unemployment you speak of could well be a lot higher by this autumn.

 

[squizzler]

Well, isn't that (the bit I've put in bold) exactly what's happening with HS2 ? Yet instead on these forums there's opposition to that and people seriously suggesting reopening lines which weren't viable 70 years ago and closed before Beeching.

I totally agree with you regarding HS2, but it is not a choice of one or the other. The point of creating new corridors like this "Northern Arc" by adding new linkages to the legacy network is that the legacy network has to have the capacity to accept this new local traffic. Therefore my suspicion is that we can only start reconfiguring the old rail system into a true network able to serve this area once HS2 abstracted the long distance traffic - HS2 is needed first. It will however increase the value we get from HS2 way beyond that of the initial analysis.

As for "reopening Beeching lines"; you spoil your argument with such lazy tropes! The new linkages in "Northern Arc" would doubtless be brand new alignment for 160kph regional rail. If it were for passengers with a standard service it may be possible to get away with single track and dynamic loops like the Cotswold and Borders railways, but I think it would be better to make it double track and electrified thus fit for general traffic.

And whilst you can't "build your way out of congestion", it's pretty irresponsible to allow for a population explosion of circa 20% between 1980 and 2010 and not invest in capacity in the prime method of transport.

The coming of the M1 started a forty year orgy of highway development, including the enlargement and deviation of many of the key trunk roads like the A43 I was so familiar with in Towcester. It was, if you are a highways enthusiast, quite transformative, but like most things if done too much has gone past the point of diminishing returns. The coming of HS2 sets the scene for a more modest flurry of railway building. These new railways will help manage traffic on the highways, allowing them to continue to serve the region without disruptive and expensive roadworks.

Finally, what about freight? DIRFT could be accessed much more quickly from both Felixtowe/Northeast (via Peterborough) and Southampton docks/South Wales/West of England (via Banbury), multiplying its value as a hub.

 

[The Planner]

DIRFT gets sorted from the South via E-W. If they weren't as daft and had kept Newton Longville loop, you could have used it from the Eastern side too with a run round.

 

[DarloRich]

And of course the greatest loss of all being the fact that they managed to get stuff done for probably a tenth (if that, inflation adjusted) of what it costs us nowadays

Amoungst other things not squashing people at work on a daily basis costs money. Sorry about that.

You're entitled to your opinion but the longer overdue A43 upgrade offered and provided far greater benefits to far more people than a Northampton to Banbury railway line ever would.

EWR will offer a sensible Northampton to Oxford journey. Banbury isn't a key destination from Northampton and that line closed long before Beeching.

Agreed - the most sensible investment in the area would be a dualling of Watling Street ( A5) from the Old Stratford roundabout to the A43 and a by pass around Towcester. That would help many more people get about than a railway line.

I used to live in Towcester and it would have been a dream to have had that Norther Arc then, but all we had was the lame A43 so-called upgrade to appease the local motoring community who had sway because it was Silverstone nearby.

It is great to see all these new projects (HS2, NPR,East West Rail) but it leaves a bitter taste that these new routes are only being built now, not in the 1970s or 1980s when other countries were putting in their new lines. Two lost generations of network development, IMO.

But this route isn't going to be built. it looks good on paper, looks like the government care, looks like regional investment & "leveling up" etc etc. At the most basic level I doubt we will have the money post CV19 and Brexit.

Also the A43 bypass has improved journeys for many people. Can we try to be realistic?

The A43 Between Northampton, Kettering and Corby, A45 between Northampton, Wellingborough and Thrapston, A605 between Thrapston, Oundle and Peterborough. The A14 between Corby, Thrapston and Huntingdon. What do all four roads have in common, all are very busy with long distance traffic.

And they will remain busy even if this railway was to be built.

 

[squizzler]

Agreed - the most sensible investment in the area would be a dualling of Watling Street ( A5) from the Old Stratford roundabout to the A43 and a by pass around Towcester.

Please sir, step away from the crayons. The Watling Street alignment runs along the doorstep of many historic villages and dualling it would be an environmental disaster to those residents, not to mention how would residents cross the street or motorists safety drive in and out the villages? I fear you indulge the most pernicious crayonista fantasy of them all: that of old-skool highway engineers bearing a wish-list of schemes that will "solve" congestion.

But this route isn't going to be built.

It is amusing when people make these assertions with dead certainty, particularly if they are proved wrong. I remember Christian Wolmar back in the day (12 years ago?) saying with confidence that the opportunity for high speed rail construction in the UK had passed, then getting ever more trenchant in his views as HS2 actually threatened to - and then did - prove him wrong. I still respect his as a transport commentator, but he did his reputation for futurology no favours in being so strident to start with.

Forum members are so used to rail transport being the cinderella that they feel uncomfortable with the idea of serious investment. In the real world, the powers that be do at last recognise at last the need to replace car travel where possible to meet our national objectives and global obligations.

 

[SargeNpton]

Northampton is a very large town that is currently disproportionately poorly served by the railway (thanks to the indigent landowners at the time of the WCML being built...). The roads have adjusted to the growth of the town but there is still only one station with slow (if cheap) north-south links. It would do well to have better regional connectivity.

That's a fallacy. At the time the locomotives available to the Stephensons were not powerful enough to manage the gradients required to get from Roade to Northampton; hence the main line going via Weedon instead.

 

[A0]

Please sir, step away from the crayons. The Watling Street alignment runs along the doorstep of many historic villages and dualling it would be an environmental disaster to those residents, not to mention how would residents cross the street or motorists safety drive in and out the villages? I fear you indulge the most pernicious crayonista fantasy of them all: that of old-skool highway engineers bearing a wish-list of schemes that will "solve" congestion.

Unlike @DarloRich, and me, you clearly don't know that bit of the A5. It doesn't run through the middle of any villages on that stretch. It's the western border of Paulerspury and the eastern border of Potterspury. It could easily be dualled as it's bounded by fields on the opposite side to those villages.

Take a look at Google Earth if you don't believe me.

North of Towcester to DIRFT it does run through the a couple of villages, Fosters Booth and Weedon, but that's about it.

 

[DarloRich]

It is amusing when people make these assertions with dead certainty, particularly if they are proved wrong. I remember Christian Wolmar back in the day (12 years ago?) saying with confidence that the opportunity for high speed rail construction in the UK had passed, then getting ever more trenchant in his views as HS2 actually threatened to - and then did - prove him wrong. I still respect his as a transport commentator, but he did his reputation for futurology no favours in being so strident to start with.

Fine: let me rephrase: I doubt this line will ever be built. I think the chances of the being funding available post CV19 and post Brexit are zero. However, I admit never is a long time so if you would prefer I doubt this line will be built in our lifetimes.

Forum members are so used to rail transport being the cinderella that they feel uncomfortable with the idea of serious investment. In the real world, the powers that be do at last recognise at last the need to replace car travel where possible to meet our national objectives and global obligations.

This is total rot. I am absolutely comfortable with investment. I want it. More of it. Trust me. My life is trying to find money for projects that will actually benefit people. They are boring and wont interest the cognoscenti here but they actually help. What I don't want is to spaff this investment away on rubbish. We might get one shot at investment like this.

Despite the star trek fantasies held by you and others the car isn't going away. It will change but it wont go away.

Unlike @DarloRich, and me, you clearly don't know that bit of the A5. It doesn't run through the middle of any villages on that stretch. It's the western border of Paulerspury and the eastern border of Potterspury. It could easily be dualled as it's bounded by fields on the opposite side to those villages.

it isn't as if you would, I don't know, build a slight diversion around these historic villages thus removing the blight of evil personal motorised conveyances from such a bucolic scene..........................

( in any event I am saying dualing only the section between the old Stratford roundabout and a Towcester bypass to link with the A43 not north of Towcester)

Unlike @DarloRich, and me, you clearly don't know that bit of the A5. It doesn't run through the middle of any villages on that stretch. It's the western border of Paulerspury and the eastern border of Potterspury. It could easily be dualled as it's bounded by fields on the opposite side to those villages.

have you tried to get a bus down there at rush hour?!?!?!?!?!?!

 

[A0]

Amoungst other things not squashing people at work on a daily basis costs money. Sorry about that.

It's also a bit of a misnomer to believe railway building was cheap 100 or more years ago. As I recently pointed out, the GC mainline cost about £15m a mile in today's prices, not too far adrift from the cost of the Borders Line reinstatement.

So whilst H&S has no doubt added some cost, anyone who's under the impression the Victorians were building railway lines for a couple of grand a mile is really not looking at the facts.

 

[DarloRich]

It's also a bit of a misnomer to believe railway building was cheap 100 or more years ago. As I recently pointed out, the GC mainline cost about £15m a mile in today's prices, not too far adrift from the cost of the Borders Line reinstatement.

So whilst H&S has no doubt added some cost, anyone who's under the impression the Victorians were building railway lines for a couple of grand a mile is really not looking at the facts.

RUK 1826:

Sir,

I write today to protest about the vast sums of money being expended upon the creation of Mr Stephenson's new "rail way" and the associated locomotive engines designed to power these contrivances. When compared with the very generous sums awarded to Mr Telford in 1799 to construct the Little Snoddlington canal extension they are nothing short of outrageous. It is clear that there is some form of fraud, profligacy or incompetence at play here with the appointed contractors being nothing short of charlatans. The money invested in this scheme would offer a better return if invested in the British/African Groundnut company and the shipping required to bring this produce to our shores.

I remain your humble servant

His Grace 13th Duke of Wybourne VC, DFC and Bar.

 

[Camden]

No, but they also weren't building on the basis of absolute proven demand, but instead on the risk based assumption that their work would stimulate demand, and create markets that didn't originally exist. Some didn't work out, but the urbanised country today, around which people can drive their cars, on roads built by the resultant industrialised and connected economy, is testament to their efforts.

I understand the Borders railway, at £15m per mile, is a success btw.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

Seems to be a lot of focus on Banbury-Northampton, but the full "arc" is Banbury-Peterborough via Northampton and Corby.

I think any of these segments on their own would struggle. But taken as a whole, does this not represent a different type of proposition entirely?

It's never going to be a high speed line. It'll be a medium speed regional line at best. The current journey time by car is about 1'40". Given it's unlikely to ever get better than an hourly end-to-end service, the journey time would have to be under 70 minutes for the Generalised Journey Time to be competitive with the car - and that is for the extraordinarily unlikely scenario of travelling from one station to another. Of course most peoples' destinations are actually some way removed from the station in each town. And as soon as that happens journey time increases even more.

In short, you'd need to have a seriously high frequency (meaning expensive operationally and in terms of the required infrastructure) and/or some very high performance stock and high line speeds (again, £££) for it to be a competitive option.

The reality is that it just ain't gonna happen with the current circumstances.

Amoungst other things not squashing people at work on a daily basis costs money. Sorry about that.

It's not even so much the construction of the lines themselves (although it is no longer necessary to go to the expense of such substantial earthworks, tunnels and viaducts as were done with the Great Central, because modern stock can take steep gradients in its stride).

You just have to look at the cost of building stations to see the ridiculous levels of cost inflation that the rail industry has suffered in the past 20 years. Station reopenings were being done around the time of privatisation for somewhere in the mid 6 figures, if that. Swanline was done on a shoestring. Just how many people were squashed in the building of those stations?

 

[DarloRich]

You just have to look at the cost of building stations to see the ridiculous levels of cost inflation that the rail industry has suffered in the past 20 years. Station reopenings were being done around the time of privatisation for somewhere in the mid 6 figures, if that. Swanline was done on a shoestring. Just how many people were squashed in the building of those stations?

Safety culture has changed vastly. The legislative and regulatory framework around construction has changed incredibly in the time you describe. Do you know what that is or what it looks like? Lets take but one example: Construction Design and Management Regulations (CDM Regulations). There have been several iterations since the passing of an evil EU directive on minimum construction site HSE in 1994 each one evolving and changing what is required. For stations in particular all that is before you consider what is required today to deliver an accessible station as part of a very congested railway network.

it isn't just the railway industry btw. It is construction generally. It costs more because more has to be done to deliver a safe construction site, using a safe construction methodology, safe construction techniques, safe and suitable equipment, a safe building and a complete set of records about that building.

What the railway industry suffers from is fragmentation driven by a cack handed privatisation that still hasn't been resolved.

 

[sammorris]

As somebody who's lived in the area close on 2 decades I can say you're wrong and there's alot wrong with the Northants road network - starting with the A43 still being single carriageway, the access to the M1 being via the A45 causing congestion there and a general lack of investment.

I was under the impression that Northampton has three closely spaced junctions on the M1, all of which are connected by a network of continuous (or very nearly so) dual carriageways around southern Northampton, and also a direct dual carriageway to Wellingborough. Plus they've just rebuilt the A45 access from Daventry. Yes, the network is congested in rush hour - but that's my point!

If you want to waste taxpayer's money on a crayonista pipe dream, then yes. Far better to focus on real and likely schemes.

Northampton - Wellingborough seems no more unrealistic and unlikely to me than opening the Robin Hood Line from Nottingham to Mansfield was, to give one example. It would introduce a serious local rail service for the first time to an area housing around 500,000 people. And while it may well be politically more unlikely than road schemes right now, in the light of climate change it seems to me that it would probably be a better long term investment than dualling the A5.

 

[squizzler]

Unlike @DarloRich, and me, you clearly don't know that bit of the A5. It doesn't run through the middle of any villages on that stretch. It's the western border of Paulerspury and the eastern border of Potterspury. It could easily be dualled as it's bounded by fields on the opposite side to those villages.

Did know the area for a few years in the late '00s. The Super Sausage near Potterspury used to do a terrific breakfast!

I maintain the current Watling St. alignment is too narrow to accommodate another carriageway, unless you wanted the all the lanes to be about 5' wide. Maybe a bike route at best? More than that and you'll be getting into compulsory purchase of a strip of adjoining land, deviations onto a virgin alignment, public enquiries and all the other things we are trying to avoid by fettling the highways rather than committing to a new rail link.

This is total rot. I am absolutely comfortable with investment. I want it. More of it. Trust me. My life is trying to find money for projects that will actually benefit people. They are boring and wont interest the cognoscenti here but they actually help. What I don't want is to spaff this investment away on rubbish. We might get one shot at investment like this.

I apologise if my last message singled you out as unduly negative - this was a mistake on my part and subsequently corrected. I appreciate your good work which no doubt requires a business head, but if I might be so bold, think you do yourself a disservice in your response to suggestions of this report. The originators of the report are presumably professionals like yourself, and they have found various corridors whose economic activity is complimentary but not effectively linked by rail services. This is high level and by necessity fairly abstract planning, and certainly requires the services of more practical men (indeed, perhaps including yourself) before breaking out the diggers, but that does not demean the validity of their work in any way.

have you tried to get a bus down there at rush hour?!?!?!?!?!?!

Tried the bus to MK, but not at rush hour. Uselessly slow and indirect, found I did better just to make do with my car.

DIRFT gets sorted from the South via E-W. If they weren't as daft and had kept Newton Longville loop, you could have used it from the Eastern side too with a run round.

I realised that DIRFT is not in the area covered by the report (even though the eponymous town is), so is not considered. Nonetheless I would assume hypothetical Northern Arc would improve its location in the rail network considerably, and require the site owners to look at access arrangements for the resultant uplift in traffic.

 

[A0]

RUK 1826:

Sir,

I write today to protest about the vast sums of money being expended upon the creation of Mr Stephenson's new "rail way" and the associated locomotive engines designed to power these contrivances. When compared with the very generous sums awarded to Mr Telford in 1799 to construct the Little Snoddlington canal extension they are nothing short of outrageous. It is clear that there is some form of fraud, profligacy or incompetence at play here with the appointed contractors being nothing short of charlatans. The money invested in this scheme would offer a better return if invested in the British/African Groundnut company and the shipping required to bring this produce to our shores.

I remain your humble servant

His Grace 13th Duke of Wybourne VC, DFC and Bar.

I *so* want a like button on these forums.....

 

[A0]

I was under the impression that Northampton has three closely spaced junctions on the M1, all of which are connected by a network of continuous (or very nearly so) dual carriageways around southern Northampton, and also a direct dual carriageway to Wellingborough. Plus they've just rebuilt the A45 access from Daventry. Yes, the network is congested in rush hour - but that's my point!

Yes and no. Yes there are 3 junctions, yes they are technically dual carriageway linked. The problem is those dual carriageways were designed as "local" roads hence are quite slow, have alot of roundabouts etc. The problem is if you're coming from Kettering / Corby wanting to get on the M1 you grind down the single carriageway A43 to Northampton and then are vying with the local traffic along the last bit of the A43 and the A45 with traffic from Wellingborough / Rushden area. There's currently no route around the top of Northampton where traffic leaving the M1 at Jnc 16 could use to get to points north-east of Northampton, so the traffic all is funneled along the A45 and A43 - neither of which in this part have seen any capacity improvements since the late 1970s.

Northampton - Wellingborough seems no more unrealistic and unlikely to me than opening the Robin Hood Line from Nottingham to Mansfield was, to give one example. It would introduce a serious local rail service for the first time to an area housing around 500,000 people. And while it may well be politically more unlikely than road schemes right now, in the light of climate change it seems to me that it would probably be a better long term investment than dualling the A5.

No comparison at all there.

Mansfield is a town of over 100,000 people (bigger than Wellingborough) that was about 10 miles from the nearest railhead (Alfreton & Mansfield Parkway as was) and was / is a deprived area. Had the Midland Mainline closed north of Bedford then conceivably Wellingborough would have been in the position of Mansfield. But the fact is both Wellingborough and Northampton have established rail links with the demand that goes with them. That's why the Robin Hood line is nothing like a possible Northampton - Wellingborough line.

There isn't the demand for travel between Northampton station and Wellingborough station though. I'll refer to one of my other posts about where rail reinstatements have been successful that route has sustained a regular and well used bus service - Borders Rail, Corby, Ebbw Vale, Blyth all tick that box. The buses between Northampton and Wellingborough go nowhere near the route of the old railway line, instead they serve Ecton Village, Earls Barton and Wilby none of which would benefit from a reinstated Wellingborough Northampton link - because the old formation (which is the only remotely viable formation) is about a mile south of the A45 formation - and the A45 is about a mile south of those villages. The Northampton - Wellingborough buses don't even serve Wellingborough station - they head to the town centre - again Wellingborough station is nowhere near the town centre.

You can point out how busy the A45 and A43 are - that I agree with - but where you're wrong is in believing that reinstating Northampton to Wellingborough and then running a service onto wherever will make even the slightest bit of difference to that - it won't. Because the train isn't going from somewhere convenient to somewhere convenient for the people making those journeys. So you can try coercion, brute force, excessive taxation, neglecting the road network all you like, but rebuilding that railway line will simply add a line which few people want, few people will use and will become a drain on resources.

Far better to improve services at Wellingborough, Kettering and Northampton using the existing routes - relatively easily done, Northampton no longer has connectivity onto the Trent Valley and north-west, that could easily be achieved now. There could be services north of Corby though the problem with those is they simply end up at Leicester and it's a slow way to get to Leicester. It might be possible to extend some Thameslink services from Bedford onto Corby - though not without its problems, it wouldn't need extensive and expensive rebuilding and would open up more connections.

 

[squizzler]

You can point out how busy the A45 and A43 are - that I agree with - but where you're wrong is in believing that reinstating Northampton to Wellingborough and then running a service onto wherever will make even the slightest bit of difference to that - it won't. Because the train isn't going from somewhere convenient to somewhere convenient for the people making those journeys. So you can try coercion, brute force, excessive taxation, neglecting the road network all you like, but rebuilding that railway line will simply add a line which few people want, few people will use and will become a drain on resources.

The UK average for rail is currently 10% modal share - note this is one tenth of all personal travel, not just that for which there are appropriate rail corridors. It seems reasonable to assume a rail corridor purposely designed to abstract through traffic from the A43 would attract more than one tenth that traffic.

Far better to improve services at Wellingborough, Kettering and Northampton using the existing routes - relatively easily done, Northampton no longer has connectivity onto the Trent Valley and north-west, that could easily be achieved now. There could be services north of Corby though the problem with those is they simply end up at Leicester and it's a slow way to get to Leicester. It might be possible to extend some Thameslink services from Bedford onto Corby - though not without its problems, it wouldn't need extensive and expensive rebuilding and would open up more connections.

Good idea and we all agree with this and understand being able to do this is one of the justifications of HS2 which will abstract the intercity traffic. Removing that bottleneck however means the problem becomes the network topology which places a limit on its utility to serve the region, and EEH are doing the correct thing by starting to plan beyond this.

By far most expensive part of EEH's network development proposals is already under construction: bypassing the legacy network so that it can be reconfigured to serve the local region. Compared to HS2, these new railways to unlock the legacy network will cost pocket change.

 

[swt_passenger]

I don't think it's about "cross line resilience" whatever tgat's supposed to be?

It reads suspiciously like an attempt to justify it as a “diversionary route”, that well used reason when all else fails.

 

[A0]

The UK average for rail is currently 10% modal share - note this is one tenth of all personal travel, not just that for which there are appropriate rail corridors. It seems reasonable to assume a rail corridor purposely designed to abstract through traffic from the A43 would attract more than one tenth that traffic.

No, your logic is flawed. What it means is some lines exceed the 10% - so probably the commuter lines into London, Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester, whereas others fall well below that.

Given the A43 between Northampton and the M40 isn't at capacity and the demand for journeys between Northampton and Banbury is low, your assumption that 10% of journeys would shift to rail is at best optimistic and more likely completely unrealistic.

The mistake you're making is saying "the average is 'x' therefore that would happen here' - unless you know the travel patterns of people using the A43 , i.e. the start / finish points of their journey, their travel times and even purpose of their journey you have no idea whether a line from Northampton to Banbury is even close to average.

 

[cle]

Surely we are best waiting to see the impact, patterns and benefits from when EWR is finished.

There are murmurs and implications of it being re-specced back to 100mph and electric, eventually - but if there is room to grow on EWR, that will be a lot more viable than a new line. For example, upgrading Marston Vale properly, or enabling service from there directly into MKC. Plus the eastern arm, whatever they do at Bedford and Oxford etc etc, extensions west to Bristol... there is lot of scope for improvement to that network before digging a new line through countryside.

For Northampton, aside from path/stock, in terms of the railway, there is nothing stopping the MKC-Oxford/Reading service beginning there - which would be a huge regional improvement, I'd say more useful than Bedford in itself, and a quicker turn. Test the market. Oxford and Bicester are going to be a lot more compelling than Banbury, even if further.

 

[The Planner]

Surely we are best waiting to see the impact, patterns and benefits from when EWR is finished.

There are murmurs and implications of it being re-specced back to 100mph and electric, eventually - but if there is room to grow on EWR, that will be a lot more viable than a new line. For example, upgrading Marston Vale properly, or enabling service from there directly into MKC. Plus the eastern arm, whatever they do at Bedford and Oxford etc etc, extensions west to Bristol... there is lot of scope for improvement to that network before digging a new line through countryside.

For Northampton, aside from path/stock, in terms of the railway, there is nothing stopping the MKC-Oxford/Reading service beginning there - which would be a huge regional improvement, I'd say more useful than Bedford in itself, and a quicker turn. Test the market. Oxford and Bicester are going to be a lot more compelling than Banbury, even if further.

Re-specced to 100mph? it was never less than that between Bicester and Bletchley. You won't be starting at Northampton prior to HS2, it is difficult enough getting them to MK.

 

[sammorris]

There isn't the demand for travel between Northampton station and Wellingborough station though. I'll refer to one of my other posts about where rail reinstatements have been successful that route has sustained a regular and well used bus service - Borders Rail, Corby, Ebbw Vale, Blyth all tick that box. The buses between Northampton and Wellingborough go nowhere near the route of the old railway line, instead they serve Ecton Village, Earls Barton and Wilby none of which would benefit from a reinstated Wellingborough Northampton link...

We're clearly not going to agree on this - but in my defence Wellingborough isn't the only town that would benefit - if you want to get Northampton to Kettering or Corby by public transport right now you'd catch a bus going to Kettering or Corby instead, and there certainly are such buses and I'd bet they are reasonably well used.

On the subject of there being no direct bus service to Wellingborough station: if you did provide a limited stop service from Northampton station to the nearest station on the MML with through ticketing (which I'm not 100% sure would be Wellingborough in journey time terms due to its awkward location), it might well be quite well used - it would almost certainly be the quickest public transport route for anywhere on the MML to/from Northampton. Sadly bus regulation in the UK seems to make that type of service very difficult to create.

 

[A0]

We're clearly not going to agree on this - but in my defence Wellingborough isn't the only town that would benefit - if you want to get Northampton to Kettering or Corby by public transport right now you'd catch a bus going to Kettering or Corby instead, and there certainly are such buses and I'd bet they are reasonably well used.

On the subject of there being no direct bus service to Wellingborough station: if you did provide a limited stop service from Northampton station to the nearest station on the MML with through ticketing (which I'm not 100% sure would be Wellingborough in journey time terms due to its awkward location), it might well be quite well used - it would almost certainly be the quickest public transport route for anywhere on the MML to/from Northampton. Sadly bus regulation in the UK seems to make that type of service very difficult to create.

You're right - because you keep ignoring all the facts.

If you provided a 'fast' bus from Wellingborough to Northampton, the quickest current bus (X4) does the journey in 35 mins. Unless you ran non-stop between the two places you're not going to take any time off that - the bus serves Wilby and Earls Barton en route. Even if you ran non-stop, you'd probably be looking at 25-30 mins - bearing in mind Google Maps reckons 20 mins for a car which has quicker acceleration and can legally run at 70 mph on the A45 the coach can only run at 60mph.

So that's Wellingborough sorted.

Let's look at Kettering - the bus takes an hour - either the X4 which runs via Wellingborough or the X10 which runs via the villages like Moulton.

The train you're looking at 7 mins Kettering to Wellingborough plus a 10 min interchange time (which is what EMR use for the current temporary Bedford bus link), so 17 mins. Add that to the 30 mins onto Northampton and you're looking at 47 minutes. The buses between Northampton and Kettering aren't exactly full and bursting currently - I'm not sure a 10 minute time saving is going to achieve much.

And so on for Corby or Market Harborough.

What you're not addressing is why people would want to travel from the MML to towards Northampton ? If it's to get access to the WCML, then where are they heading to? If it's London, then there's no point, Northampton's journey to London is slower, Euston and St P are about a mile apart and St P has better tube connections. If it's Milton Keynes then as I and others keep pointing out EWR will address that far more efficiently than sending them the slow way round via Northampton.

If it's Birmingham - then frankly there's no saving to be had. Northampton to Birmingham takes over an hour now, today. Wellingborough to Birmingham (changing at Leicester with a 10 min wait) takes 1h 39m - guess what by the time you've got over to Northampton you've got pretty much the same journey time. Oddly for Kettering or Harborough that time reduces as they are closer to Leicester.

There seems to be this mythical belief that connectivity to Northampton and the WCML will somehow magically improve Corby, Kettering or Wellingborough - yet there are few, if any practical journeys where that's the case. Just about the only one is Rugby - but with the greatest respect, Rugby is no more significant as a place than Kettering or Wellingborough is.

 

[cle]

Re-specced to 100mph? it was never less than that between Bicester and Bletchley. You won't be starting at Northampton prior to HS2, it is difficult enough getting them to MK.

I understood it to have been Grayling-ed, to 90mph when it was also de-electrified.

 

[59CosG95]

I understood it to have been Grayling-ed, to 90mph when it was also de-electrified.

I think what @The Planner is saying is that rumours are swirling that the wires and extra 10mph *might* be back on the cards.
Again, huge emphasis on the word "might".