2020 US Presidential Election

[158756]

I have lived in the USA for nearly 20 years. God I miss the NHS (yes I know it isnt perfect). Some of the astronomical bills I have had you would not believe - and I have insurance!

I am sure that in future - possibly not my lifetime, that if some candidate came up with a healthcare bill that had very broad overall support from both parties it would be a winner. It may over time need tweaking. Even Obamacare (ACA) has an element that not even Trump will repeal - preexisting conditions. Everyone apart from the insurance companies are happy about that. I would love insurance companies to be taken out of the loop completely. I think Obama wanted that but knew it was a step too far.

Trump might say he wouldn't repeal the bit about preexisting conditions, but actions speak louder than words - his 2017 tax bill has led to a supreme court case next month which could rule the whole or parts of the ACA unconstitutional, and assuming it happens in time the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett is thought to increase the chances of that outcome.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

All I can say is I hope not.

 

[ainsworth74]

It seems that this last seven days has seen a substantial widening of the pre election polling in favour of Biden. Not that I'm a massive believer in polls (see 2016).. but now even Arizona has moved against Trump. That's quite something.

Well, to be fair, the polls showed Hilary Clinton being more popular than Trump and that was reflected by her winning the popular vote by several million votes! It's only when the hideously undemocratic Electoral College got involved in electing, for the second time in two decades, a candidate that lost the popular vote that they looked wrong.

I heard that earlier and was also surprised.
Assuming the next debate is moderated in a different way (I nominate @ainsworth74 for that role ), Trump not being able to run his mouth off like the last time could actually be better for him.

Seconded!

Sorry @ainsworth74 , I fear you won't get your chance at tv stardom this year

Is that a bus I see in the distance? And why are you all standing next to me as if you're about to throw me?

 

[najaB]

Is that a bus I see in the distance? And why are you all standing next to me as if you're about to throw me?

[Points in the opposite direction to the bus]: Hey! Look over there, what's that?

 

[nlogax]

Anyone else going to be watching the coverage? I've got a couple of mates coming over late on the 3rd and we've all taken the 4th off. I think there's going to be a lot of beer and pizza and a holding of collective breath.

 

[Bald Rick]

Anyone else going to be watching the coverage? I've got a couple of mates coming over late on the 3rd and we've all taken the 4th off. I think there's going to be a lot of beer and pizza and a holding of collective breath.

What are the usual timings on the night?

 

[ainsworth74]

Anyone else going to be watching the coverage? I've got a couple of mates coming over late on the 3rd and we've all taken the 4th off. I think there's going to be a lot of beer and pizza and a holding of collective breath.

I was thinking about it but I'd rather not have a random Wednesday off in the week. They should be sensible like us and have them on Thursday when taking the next day off just means a long weekend!

What are the usual timings on the night?

Because of their (terrifying) reliance on electronic voting and/or machine aided counting results tend to start coming in fairly early compared to our own elections and they do running vote totals as well as time goes on. First polls close in the east around midnight our time (1900 on the East Coast) and counting will start with running totals from then on. Trump won it around 0730 our time in 2016. Romney conceded to Obama in 2012 around 0500 our time (could have done it a few hours earlier probably) and McCain conceded around 0400 our time in 2008. Though I think the smart money, unless it's a complete and utter blow out (and even then), is on it being a rather more drawn out affair this time round. But it's probably safe to say if you can't stay up all night it would be worth checking in around 0300/0400 our time as there will definitely be some sense of what's going on by then.

 

[37424]

I do find the US interesting but bizarre, a developed western country but in some ways backward with its love of Guns, lack of universal health care, capitalist yet protectionist, its law and order structure etc. In terms of choice neither are good choice in my view both old men who should retire. I would bar anybody over the age of 70 standing for high office, but aside that neither seem a good candidate, is that the best the US has to offer? similar to the last UK election Johnson or Corbyn was that the best the UK had to offer? but then you could argue anyone with high ability and integrity would not probably want to be a politician anyway.

 

[Acfb]

I'm not sure I'll stay up for this one. I thought the BBC coverage was absolutely terrible in 2016 and slow on the uptake. I have no idea how many people (particularly Democrats) are actually using mail in voting in swing states such as Florida and North Carolina (even Georgia as well) so I've no idea if we'll get accurate info and avoid chaos on the night.

My expectation is for Biden to win the popular vote by 6% and the electoral college by around 335-203, basically 2012 with North Carolina+Arizona and Iowa+Ohio swapped around but who knows what will happen.

 

[nlogax]

I'm not sure I'll stay up for this one. I thought the BBC coverage was absolutely terrible in 2016 and slow on the uptake.

The trick is to watch live US coverage via VPN or other means. US news is usually pretty hyperbolic (think The Day Today on steroids) but at times like these the occasion rises to match the style.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I do find the US interesting but bizarre, a developed western country but in some ways backward with its love of Guns, lack of universal health care, capitalist yet protectionist, its law and order structure etc.

I concur and I love America and its people and way of life.

In my first job in Preston Lancashire , I was paid monthly directly into the bank. In my first job in the USA January 2001 I was paid weekly by cheque which I had to physically deposit in the bank. Even now I am paid every two weeks.
Elections that sometimes get decided in the courts - 2020 could well be the same.
Love of guns as already mentioned and many organised hunting trips with both bow and arrow and guns.
The culture is obsessed with food.
Healthcare which although good if you can afford it can bankrupt you - so no universal healthcare.
You will get obsessively chased and prosecuted if you drink alcohol under the age of 21 but lauded as a hero if you go and kill "the enemy" and die for your country under the age of 21 !!!!!!
They still have sheriffs etc as well as regular police, airport police, college campus police, US Marshalls, highway patrol, FBI, CIA, NSA and so on all fighting for their own turf.

Definitely an enigma but I choose to live here. 2020 election will be interesting.

 

[edwin_m]

In Switzerland gun ownership is also widespread (and actually for the Second Amendment purpose of being able to raise a militia) but gun crime is rare. So it's not so much the right to bear arms in the States, but the willingness to use them.

I think the culture you see in Westerns, where the sheriff and often the private citizen has to enforce the law by means of the gun, is deeply ingrained in the American psyche. There aren't many Westerns made any more but we have plenty of imported American cop shows here, and it's rare for an episode to end without the good guys (and often gals) having made things right by shooting the bad guys (less often gals). I suspect such saturation coverage of apparent heroes using their firepower to do good has a big effect on some people, so despite Hollywood being (in American terms) mostly relatively liberal I believe it deserves a big slice of the blame for gun culture.

 

[DerekC]

In my relatively short time working in Pennsylvania (pre-Trump) I was surprised by how negative the view of the Federal Government was. It's somehow seen as an unnecessary imposition by many Americans. I think that's one of the sources of dissatisfaction that Trump has played up to. Boris and the Brexiteers tried to play the same game but it hasn't really worked because they have become the target.

 

[nlogax]

In my relatively short time working in Pennsylvania (pre-Trump) I was surprised by how negative the view of the Federal Government was. It's somehow seen as an unnecessary imposition by many Americans. I think that's one of the sources of dissatisfaction that Trump has played up to.

That's Pennsylvania for you, and it's easy to understand why it's again seen as a swing state. Relatively left-leaning folks in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, while you have a huge swathe of rural voters in between, many of whom have - or had - careers in steelmaking and mining. Those are the ones who've traditionally seen the federal government as an obstacle to their personal lives, but as their fortunes change so do the direction of their twenty valuable electoral college votes. Ok - so that's a slight oversimplification but PA is usually a basket case come election time.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I think the culture you see in Westerns, where the sheriff and often the private citizen has to enforce the law by means of the gun, is deeply ingrained in the American psyche. There aren't many Westerns made any more but we have plenty of imported American cop shows here, and it's rare for an episode to end without the good guys (and often gals) having made things right by shooting the bad guys (less often gals). I suspect such saturation coverage of apparent heroes using their firepower to do good has a big effect on some people, so despite Hollywood being (in American terms) mostly relatively liberal I believe it deserves a big slice of the blame for gun culture.

This is probably the most insightful comment I have read in the political section of this forum since I joined and it is so true. The Hollywood liberals definitely deserve a big slice of the blame. Incidentally, them and the MSM especially CNN ridiculed Trump in 2015/6 and then proceeded to show all his rallies saying he had no chance. In effect they gave him free advertising. So the MSM deserve a big slice of blame even though it may have been inadvertent for helping Trump get elected.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I think the culture you see in Westerns, where the sheriff and often the private citizen has to enforce the law by means of the gun, is deeply ingrained in the American psyche. There aren't many Westerns made any more but we have plenty of imported American cop shows here, and it's rare for an episode to end without the good guys (and often gals) having made things right by shooting the bad guys (less often gals). I suspect such saturation coverage of apparent heroes using their firepower to do good has a big effect on some people, so despite Hollywood being (in American terms) mostly relatively liberal I believe it deserves a big slice of the blame for gun culture.

Are you sure that's a significant cause? We see all the same American Westerns and imported cop shows and so on - I'm guessing, to a similar extent to in the US, and it doesn't seem to have caused the same impact on our culture.

 

[nlogax]

Are you sure that's a significant cause? We see all the same American Westerns and imported cop shows and so on - I'm guessing, to a similar extent to in the US, and it doesn't seem to have caused the same impact on our culture.

Those movies we watched nearly always originated / were set in America. You don't generally see the same sort of gun craziness from other countries' tv and movie output. Make of that what you will.

Somewhat back on topic, it sounds like Pence wants to do away with perspex screens around his part of the stage for the vice presidential debate on Thursday, in spite of both sides having agreed to the debate commission's rules yesterday. Rather feels like the incumbents aren't keen on debating as they could be..?

 

[edwin_m]

Are you sure that's a significant cause? We see all the same American Westerns and imported cop shows and so on - I'm guessing, to a similar extent to in the US, and it doesn't seem to have caused the same impact on our culture.

Those movies we watched nearly always originated / were set in America. You don't generally see the same sort of gun craziness from other countries' tv and movie output. Make of that what you will.

I think that's the explanation - the fact it's obviously in America or featuring Americans in other countries means it doesn't look like the sort of setting the rest of us would be familiar with.

That's Pennsylvania for you, and it's easy to understand why it's again seen as a swing state. Relatively left-leaning folks in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, while you have a huge swathe of rural voters in between, many of whom have - or had - careers in steelmaking and mining. Those are the ones who've traditionally seen the federal government as an obstacle to their personal lives, but as their fortunes change so do the direction of their twenty valuable electoral college votes. Ok - so that's a slight oversimplification but PA is usually a basket case come election time.

Related too I think. The gun culture is part of a culture of self-reliance where people expect to solve their own problems and the government is just getting in the way. The lack of the state healthcare and other benefits we see in most other advanced economies is part of the same thing in my view.

If Trump wins this time, I can see California wanting to secede from the Union within not many years, possibly taking the rest of the west coast with it. Parts of the Northeast may go the same way. Similar motivation to how the UK government is essentially forcing Scotland towards independence, although the economics would be the other way round.

 

[ainsworth74]

I think that's the explanation - the fact it's obviously in America or featuring Americans in other countries means it doesn't look like the sort of setting the rest of us would be familiar with.

I think the other factor at play is that even if you did look at that and think to yourself "I want a gun!" it is still very hard, at least in the UK, to then go out and get one. Even in other countries which aren't a strict as us when it comes to gun laws it still not as simple as it is in the US to access extraordinarily powerful weapons.

 

[edwin_m]

I think the other factor at play is that even if you did look at that and think to yourself "I want a gun!" it is still very hard, at least in the UK, to then go out and get one. Even in other countries which aren't a strict as us when it comes to gun laws it still not as simple as it is in the US to access extraordinarily powerful weapons.

Maybe so, but I gave the example of Switzerland where guns are widespread and gun crime is rare. Hence why I think there's more to it than simply gun availability. Perhaps those who argue for more restriction on guns in the States won't reduce the horrendous rates of gunshot injuries without tackling the wider and much more difficult cultural issue.

 

[Busaholic]

Maybe so, but I gave the example of Switzerland where guns are widespread and gun crime is rare. Hence why I think there's more to it than simply gun availability. Perhaps those who argue for more restriction on guns in the States won't reduce the horrendous rates of gunshot injuries without tackling the wider and much more difficult cultural issue.

There used to be a phrase that was very popular in this country - 'an Englishman's home is his castle' which seems to have fallen into disuse. I'd suggest it would way more accurate to say 'a white, 40 plus American man's home is his castle, which he is entitled to defend against any threat, real or imagined, whether by individuals, groups or branches of government, with lethal force if necessary' and Trump managed to speak to enough of these people (including women as well, of course, some of whom can be even more vociferous). People of my age with a similar outlook to my own would certainly have referred to such people in the past as 'rednecks' (though possibly not to their faces, lest your own got blown away!) The problem is these people will not be going away until they die out (if they ever do) but if/when Trump has to stand down a good proportion will not take it lying down. I fear for the USA.

 

[DerekC]

What's Biden's attitude to gun control?

 

[baz962]

What's Biden's attitude to gun control?

I'm not sure. But I do remember a clip on television , where someone confronted Biden about taking their guns away and he got angry with the man saying " I won't touch your guns " or very similar.

 

[najaB]

What's Biden's attitude to gun control?

As far as I know he's in line with around 65% of Americans and is in favour of limited gun control. For example mandatory background checks, closing the gun show loophole, banning assault rifles, that sort of thing.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Biden’s latest advert which I have just seen 2 minutes ago says we have to reduce our dependence on China and buy American. Wow that will tick a lot of boxes for some people - me included.

 

[Typhoon]

Eric Trump has made probably the most outlandish claim yet ('He' is his father).

"He literally saved Christianity, there's a war on faith in this country by the other side. I mean, the Democratic Party, the far left, has become the party of the quote-unquote atheist, they want to attack Christianity, they want to close churches, they want to - they're totally fine keeping liquor stores open, but they want to close churches all over the country," he said, before continuing his list of accomplishments.

From https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...saved-christianity/ar-BB19MhWA?ocid=msedgdhp using a story from the Independent. There is an audio clip to verify the quote.

This is desperation in spades (but they might still pull it off).

 

[nlogax]

This is desperation in spades (but they might still pull it off).

Might, although day by day that looks less likely. Shouldn't write off Trump's chances completely though considering 2016.

 

[Bald Rick]

Might, although day by day that looks less likely. Shouldn't write off Trump's chances completely though considering 2016.

Indeed, in the last week the betting on Trump has gone from evens to 2/1.

 

[Gostav]

Eric Trump has made probably the most outlandish claim yet ('He' is his father).

From https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/eric-trump-says-his-dad-literally-saved-christianity/ar-BB19MhWA?ocid=msedgdhp using a story from the Independent. There is an audio clip to verify the quote.

This is desperation in spades (but they might still pull it off).

I hear America is the only developed country with a strong religious culture.

 

[Bald Rick]

I hear America is the only developed country with a strong religious culture.

I think the Israelis, Italians and Spanish might have something to say about that!