can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[43096]

My case: may or may not be typical.

I used to use the train 4-5 days per week for commuting and for longer journeys on business.

Post Covid I will still be working from home, and we have found ways to achieve things remotely which will mean that when things finally get back to normal I will probably be doing one longer journey maybe 3 times a month. Our company have found that a lot of us can work from home, they can downsize office accommodation, its already started as temporary buildings (portakabins) have gone, and we save time and money as well.

If this pattern is repeated in even 20% of cases then rail usage will drop significantly, also if the proportion of leisure journeys increases which are more price sensitive then the government may want to reconsider subsidies.

Turbulent times ahead I reckon.

I wouldn't even want to speculate if passenger numbers will ever reach pre covid levels again, I won't say never, but I reckon you could be talking decades not years.

I used to work in London daily, involving a commute of about 90mins each way door-to-door every day. Since the lockdown started I've been working from home and have been into the office twice in over 6 months. Do I want to go back to 5 day-per-week in the office? No thanks - I can get up later, get "home" earlier, it costs me about £3k less per year and in consequence am less tired by the end of the week, which means I can enjoy the weekend more. There still is a place for the office - there's no substitute for teams actually meeting up and problem solving/group working is better face to face - but it will be very different post-pandemic.

More business lost for the railway.

 

[yorksrob]

I think that thinning out services that are already hourly would be a mistake. It would be more destructive of returning business and not yield massive savings.

Better to thin out services on routes which already have a large number of trains for which the service is now overprovided.

 

[Bletchleyite]

More business lost for the railway.

Business that is incredibly expensive to provide extra capacity for - and business that doesn't even pay that much - a typical day of an annual season costs similar to or less than an Off Peak Day Return for that route.

If you get rid of most of it, you can have an all-week Saturday style service with fixed train lengths all day - this would save a packet. Look at how much stock is parked up on Camden Bank all day - you don't need it any more.

 

[43096]

Business that is incredibly expensive to provide extra capacity for - and business that doesn't even pay that much - a typical day of an annual season costs similar to or less than an Off Peak Day Return for that route.

If you get rid of most of it, you can have an all-week Saturday style service with fixed train lengths all day - this would save a packet. Look at how much stock is parked up on Camden Bank all day - you don't need it any more.

Business that also pays up front - often for 12 months - so the change will be incredibly bad for cashflow.

It should also be noted that the franchise I used to commute on (South Western) is actually a net contributor (i.e. it cover its costs plus) despite all those units parked at Clapham, Wimbledon and Strawberry Hill between the peaks.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Another possibility of what we might see in the near future is an increase in revenue protection activities. A lot of TOCs will surely be implementing ways to protect their reduced revenue. Maybe stiffer penalties for fare evaders with staff using downtime to check for valid tickets.

I believe guards on TPE services were not checking tickets when I last used their service in March because of social distancing issues and close contact with passengers. Is this still in place?

CJ

 

[Bletchleyite]

Better to thin out services on routes which already have a large number of trains for which the service is now overprovided.

Agreed. For instance, an all-week Saturday service would make sense on most London commuter routes (to be fair, away from London this is the norm in many places anyway). The peak extras are just not needed, perhaps at a push you may need to lengthen maybe 4-5 trains in each peak direction to max length.

 

[Hadders]

I think that thinning out services that are already hourly would be a mistake. It would be more destructive of returning business and not yield massive savings.

Better to thin out services on routes which already have a large number of trains for which the service is now overprovided.

I agree but remember the Government are in control.....

I can see my local line going from 4 fast trains an hour to London (introduced last year as part of Thameslink) to 2 trains an hour (which we managed with for years).

 

[yorksrob]

Agreed. For instance, an all-week Saturday service would make sense on most London commuter routes (to be fair, away from London this is the norm in many places anyway). The peak extras are just not needed, perhaps at a push you may need to lengthen maybe 4-5 trains in each peak direction to max length.

Indeed. I can see the commuter routes becoming used more like an all day metro.

I agree but remember the Government are in control.....

I can see my local line going from 4 fast trains an hour to London (introduced last year as part of Thameslink) to 2 trains an hour (which we managed with for years).

Yes, Government is always a worry.

To be fair, half hourly is a perfectly decent interval for most places. Not quite turn up and go, but you won't be standing around for too long !

 

[Class 170101]

On the other hand, leisure traffic seems to be increasing almost daily: and with the roads constantly gridlocked it won't take much for the trains to become more attractive again, despite the masks, which people appear to be getting more used to wearing. Already many trains during the day and at weekends are very healthily filled, even full and standing on occasion. Therefore rolling stock that would have once been used to maximise commuter train capacity, will now be seen out at weekends instead.

So the game has changed: the post-Covid railway needs to cater for and price for the leisure travellers as a much greater proportion of business, I would say.

That assumes NR allows for it to happen. NR carries out most of its works at evenings and weekends. The 7 day railway is yet to become a reality.

 

[w1bbl3]

Office five days a week will become the exception rather than the rule post covid, with employers going for a far more varied work pattern including full time WfH through to 3 or 4 days in the office.
Peak demand will drop but this might be offset by increases in off-peak as mixed working also sees more flexible hours so the possibility to start earlier or later and finish accordingly.

I'd expect to see a reduction in train length on the main commuter flows and a reduction in frequency on the intercity flows becoming permanent in the medium term, eventually demand will return to the 2019 level but I can't see this happening any time soon. In a more commercialised industry you would at this stage see operators dumping old/expensive stock and reducing headcount. The airline industry is planning on 2025(ish) for a return to 2019 traffic levels.

 

[StephenHunter]

Many of the main commuter flows have little flexibility to change length. Thameslink is 8 or 12 exclusively; LU's newer stock is fixed length of 7 or 8. Even older stock has your options of 4/8/12.

Also, many commuters will still need to go in for manual jobs that can't be done from home, even if the hospitality world will look rather different after this.

 

[Mikey C]

What this will do is take away the pressure, and dare I say it the need to take out seats on London commuter trains so that more people can stand!

Indeed the London network in particular is skewed by the need to shift a crazy number of people from the suburbs into Central London, resulting in masses of stock which is then not needed for much of the day. If this reduces a bit, it might make the railway easier to manage. It'll also make the likelihood of Crossrail 2 being built rather remote...

 

[HSTEd]

if this reduces a bit, it might make the railway easier to manage. It'll also make the likelihood of Crossrail 2 being built rather remote...

It might also have the opposite effect, Crossrail 2 does have advantages in a non-crammed railway world.
Even with a less bouyant commercial property markets, the city centre stations and surface track are likely quite valuable.

Could have a full scale rationalisation of south London termini once the peak trains disappear.

And as BR proved, through operations have all sorts of advantages.

 

[Horizon22]

The issue with going to a Saturday+ timetable (ultimately the best option in my view) is if people do start working 3-4 days from week, its going to be very difficult to predict what days these are. Your 08:00 train from "Generic Surburb" to "Big City" might get overcrowded on Tuesday but not Monday if people elect to have Mondays and Fridays WFH for instance. Not the easiest to plan stock for.

 

[mike57]

What is also interesting the effect of the reduced timetable on our local TPE route from Scarborough, it is more reliable now than at any point since the 2018 timetable fiasco, daytime journeys are now a York shuttle, with through services to points west at morning and evening peaks. Thinning services beyond hourly on all but the most remote routes wont work, as any missed connections become a major problem, and people will choose other means of transport. Taking off early and late trains also won't work, it restricts ability to complete business in a day. Maybe instead of routes with multiple branches all having through services we will end up with a trunk route with multiple branches served by connecting services timed to connect, or perhaps trains which divide enroute. The dividing option wouldn't work for TPE with their current rolling stock.

So maybe a change of emphasis is needed, to adapt services to reduced passenger numbers whilst still allowing people to complete journeys in a timely manner.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The issue with going to a Saturday+ timetable (ultimately the best option in my view) is if people do start working 3-4 days from week, its going to be very difficult to predict what days these are. Your 08:00 train from "Generic Surburb" to "Big City" might get overcrowded on Tuesday but not Monday if people elect to have Mondays and Fridays WFH for instance. Not the easiest to plan stock for.

I'm going to predict it - equal numbers will do Monday and Wednesday as will do Tuesday and Thursday (fewer will do consecutive days), while Fridays will, as pre-COVID, be very quiet.

IOW I think it will be consistent on every day other than Friday overall.

 

[RuralRambler]

The issue with going to a Saturday+ timetable (ultimately the best option in my view) is if people do start working 3-4 days from week, its going to be very difficult to predict what days these are. Your 08:00 train from "Generic Surburb" to "Big City" might get overcrowded on Tuesday but not Monday if people elect to have Mondays and Fridays WFH for instance. Not the easiest to plan stock for.

Firms will downsize their offices so staff wont all be able to wfh Mon and Fri - they'll have to be spread over the week or there's no benefit to the employer.

 

[takno]

Firms will downsize their offices so staff wont all be able to wfh Mon and Fri - they'll have to be spread over the week or there's no benefit to the employer.

This is where it all tends to break down a bit. If you've got remote-first workers who only come into the office a couple of days a month they will plonk themselves down wherever, but if people are in for theee days every week they need just as much space. There are some accountants rubbing their hands with glee at the moment who are going to make some nasty discoveries when the jobs market recovers.

 

[radamfi]

I can understand the government paying for National Rail and TfL. But how come we are still paying for commercial bus services, seemingly indefinitely? It defeats the whole object of deregulation, which is to ensure that the taxpayer isn't paying. If they aren't commercial any more, then why not replace them with tendered services?

 

[Peter Sarf]

My case: may or may not be typical.

I used to use the train 4-5 days per week for commuting and for longer journeys on business.

Post Covid I will still be working from home, and we have found ways to achieve things remotely which will mean that when things finally get back to normal I will probably be doing one longer journey maybe 3 times a month. Our company have found that a lot of us can work from home, they can downsize office accommodation, its already started as temporary buildings (portakabins) have gone, and we save time and money as well.

If this pattern is repeated in even 20% of cases then rail usage will drop significantly, also if the proportion of leisure journeys increases which are more price sensitive then the government may want to reconsider subsidies.

Turbulent times ahead I reckon.

I wouldn't even want to speculate if passenger numbers will ever reach pre covid levels again, I won't say never, but I reckon you could be talking decades not years.

My employer has been taking on more accommodation - those freed up portakabins you refer to. This is because, although a lot of people are working from home, we are ensuring the facilities are large enough for people to distance. The number of office staff working from home was approximately 80% but falling. The company seems to want them back and most of those who have come back wanted to be back. I have been in 100% (minus a period of self isolation). I cannot work from home but would like to try it !.

I work in an office designing roads, my team of 6 all still wish to be in the office, I've got kids who would be around for some of time some days.

Another is married to a childminder, I needn't need to say any more.

Another is a graduate and is still learning so asks a lot of questions and needs a fair amount of guidance. They also live alone.

Two others don't have good office space.

We've all found that there's advantages of being in the office on terms of communication, not least being able to judge when it's a good time to ask a question (i.e. the person you wish to take to isn't busy, isn't in a meeting/on a call, etc.)

Whilst I would expect that we'll end up with some WFH it's not going to be the default situation.

Likewise I'd expect that there'll be some (probably easily 25%, but could be higher) of people who will have a similar preference. Whilst that's still going to leave a significant number who would like working from home I'd expect that would mostly be doing so about 2 or 3 days a week. That's still going to result in commuting levels of about 2/3 of what we saw before.

That's before you consider that a reduction in miles traveled site to WFH could also impact on car use, which on turn could change the economics of car ownership.

For some that could result in more occasional rail travel as well as some extra rail travel for getting to/from work.

Given that 80% of travel is by road a 1.25% shift from road to rail would result in an extra 10% (2019 values) uplift in miles traveled by rail.

Given that new car sales in September were very low (and it's worth remembering that restrictions weren't that bad at the beginning of the month with businesses being encouraged to reopen offices) it's not looking like that there's going to be a significant shift from rail to road use long term. In that probably the drop is mostly down to people WFH rather than driving to work.

Anyway, of there's a 15% drop in use overall then all that's going to mean is that we'll be back to 2015 levels of rail use. Whilst that may well take to 2030 to recover to 2019 levels it's not as bad as some suggest that it could be.

Even a 20% fall would only be back to 2012 levels.

Now whilst that seems a million miles from where we're at, given that we're at 40%, it should be noted that some big companies took the decision to say that everyone could work from home until the end of this year back in the late spring. Whilst others were planning on encouraging staff back to the office just before Boris said that people needed to work from home again.

Chances are a lot of those falls will be in London and the South East, rather than the rural lines which people fear might get cut if there's reductions in travel and they're not viable any more (such lines are unlikely to see much of a fall as they are less likely to be carrying many office based commuters).

There will be staff who don't want to work from home and employers that want staff in. However I reckon employers save a fair bit of money if staff are at home. Especially as, in my experience, accommodation is to be less densely used to cater for Covid distancing. Whether that saving outweighs the possible loss of productivity is open to debate.

The Government isn't going to continue writing blank cheques to the rail industry forever. If passenger numbers don't return then I expect there to be massive reductions in service levels.

I doubt we'll see complete line closures but the sort of things I fear we'll see are:

- massive reductions in the timetable. For example an hourly service will become every other hour
- This will free up rolling stock which will be cascaded to replace stock becoming life expired so no expect no new orders
- Later 1st services and earlier last services
- Reduction or removal of Sunday services
- Maintenance 'holidays'
- Cancellation of capacity enhancements although I expect big ticket items like HS2, MML electrification to go ahead

- To add to your list. Increases in fares.

 

[LowLevel]

Office five days a week will become the exception rather than the rule post covid, with employers going for a far more varied work pattern including full time WfH through to 3 or 4 days in the office.
Peak demand will drop but this might be offset by increases in off-peak as mixed working also sees more flexible hours so the possibility to start earlier or later and finish accordingly.

I'd expect to see a reduction in train length on the main commuter flows and a reduction in frequency on the intercity flows becoming permanent in the medium term, eventually demand will return to the 2019 level but I can't see this happening any time soon. In a more commercialised industry you would at this stage see operators dumping old/expensive stock and reducing headcount. The airline industry is planning on 2025(ish) for a return to 2019 traffic levels.

Depends where you go really. In London maybe. In my part of the world we have a schedule that in some cases is worse than the 1980s having never recovered from the early 1990s cutbacks, with 30 year old trains that have barely been supplemented until the removal of class 153s working alone at the start of this year.

We are basically where we have been for the last 20-30 years, except we are getting 20 year old rolling stock to replace 30 plus year old rolling stock.

Our trains are also not empty, which helps.

So I think it is actually a pretty varied picture.

Head count has increased slightly in anticipation of some service increases but we still struggle for crews and are still below our historical maximum in the past.

15 years ago we had a largeish team of assistant ticket examiners working with guards - now we have about 1.5 full time equivalents with them having been replaced with ticket vending machines.

Regional Railways Central was always 'lean' outside the West Midlands, there isn't a huge amount you can change.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Another thing that could/should change is less demand on public transport by people working fewer but longer days. That would reduce the total number of journeys and hopefully spread the demand thus spreading and thinning the peaks.

The above would particularly work for offices which rarely seem to be in use for 14 hours of each work. Manual work does seem to be a less likely candidate. Certainly, where I work, almost all are already on 12-hour shifts.

 

[The Ham]

Business that also pays up front - often for 12 months - so the change will be incredibly bad for cashflow.

It should also be noted that the franchise I used to commute on (South Western) is actually a net contributor (i.e. it cover its costs plus) despite all those units parked at Clapham, Wimbledon and Strawberry Hill between the peaks.

Whilst season tickets do bring in money up front they aren't all that great for income given how cheap they are. There's other ways you could get some of the income to help cashflow, for instance X tickets for the price of Y (where Y is smaller, so 12 tickets for the price of 10). Make them large enough (270 for the price of 190) and those working 3 day a week could see their ticket price be similar to those working full time.

Yes you wouldn't be getting full time income, but then you're not providing full time services. Anyway chances are you'd end up with space for more people, so overall there's the potential that it's not going to be all that different.

SWR have fairly busy trains all day long, I used to catch a train at 15:30 and there were people standing on it because it was so busy (and no there didn't appear to be school children as it was a middle distance service - i.e. circa 20 miles between stops for the leg I was on).

Even the late night services (but not the last trains) tended to be well used too.

Changing the subject a bit, WFH isn't possible for every job (yes it's likely that it covers a lot of jobs for into London from outside the M25) as such it's only ever going to be a fraction (maybe a large fraction but a fraction none the less) of the overall work related travel, which in itself is a fraction of the total rail use.

If we assume 60% of work can be done via WFH and 50% of rail travel is work related and 40% is the average WFH amount then the fall in rail use would be 12%.

We can discuss the values, but even 70% of work, 60% of rail use and 50% is the average WFH amount then the fall is still only 21%.

20% just rewinds the rail passenger numbers to 2012, yes there's likely to be reductions (more likely on medium distance into London services than elsewhere, such as lines where there's less than 2tph anyway) however probably not as bad as some fear.

 

[telstarbox]

The Graph this week shows a decline in w/c 28 September, perhaps unsurprisingly given the rise in cases and the 10pm curfew announced the week before.

 

[Horizon22]

Whilst season tickets do bring in money up front they aren't all that great for income given how cheap they are. There's other ways you could get some of the income to help cashflow, for instance X tickets for the price of Y (where Y is smaller, so 12 tickets for the price of 10). Make them large enough (270 for the price of 190) and those working 3 day a week could see their ticket price be similar to those working full time.

I could see that going quite nice with a smartcard scheme (if the railway could agree on a standard and transferable format that would be great, but that's another thread) whereby you load up your card with X number of journeys and you tap between A and B and slowly it goes down. You can then log on and see how many you've got, top-up etc.

We can discuss the values, but even 70% of work, 60% of rail use and 50% is the average WFH amount then the fall is still only 21%.

20% just rewinds the rail passenger numbers to 2012, yes there's likely to be reductions (more likely on medium distance into London services than elsewhere, such as lines where there's less than 2tph anyway) however probably not as bad as some fear.

Not sure the maths are right because commuters have many more journeys / year compared to leisure travellers?

 

[The Ham]

Not sure the maths are right because commuters have many more journeys / year compared to leisure travellers?

The figures vary a bit but over the whole network there's about 60% to 65% of passengers are doing so for commuting purposes.

However I've then assumed that all of commuting is loaded towards those who can work from home (national average suggests 40% to 50%) as rail is likely to have higher levels of commuting to office based jobs, especially around London and the South East, than the average. However within this figure are those who don't want to work from home or aren't allowed to work from home, which could easily be 25% of people.

Likewise there's going to be a range in the amount that people WFH from 5% (i.e. a few days a year just to avoid the need to take time off) through to 95% (I suspect that even those who work full time at home would need to go in from time to time). Chances are 50% would be on the high side given that a lot would like to be in the office 3 or 4 days a week (so to get the best of both worlds).

As I said I'm willing to discuss numbers, but probably 25% would be the upper likely fall (it's possible that it could be more but then it's possible that the fall could be lower than the lower fall) with a lower end fall probably being 10%. If I had to guess the figures for 2022 being about 15% down on the 2019 numbers.

 

[158756]

I can understand the government paying for National Rail and TfL. But how come we are still paying for commercial bus services, seemingly indefinitely? It defeats the whole object of deregulation, which is to ensure that the taxpayer isn't paying. If they aren't commercial any more, then why not replace them with tendered services?

If a route could still be profitable at a lower frequency or without evening and Sunday services that's what the operators will go for, so busy routes would get a much reduced service and no tenders even if the council can afford it. And unless the government are willing to transfer the current support for bus services to councils, permanently and ring fenced to prevent it being spent on anything else, councils don't have the money to fund any additional tenders.

 

[LittleAH]

Another possibility of what we might see in the near future is an increase in revenue protection activities. A lot of TOCs will surely be implementing ways to protect their reduced revenue. Maybe stiffer penalties for fare evaders with staff using downtime to check for valid tickets.

I believe guards on TPE services were not checking tickets when I last used their service in March because of social distancing issues and close contact with passengers. Is this still in place?

CJ

Ticket checks are in place as are penalty fares. Since penalty fares were reintroduced, they've gone through the roof, which shows how many were travelling for free during those months with no ticket checks.

 

[crablab]

Since penalty fares were reintroduced, they've gone through the roof, which shows how many were travelling for free during those months with no ticket checks.

Source? Not doubting, interested to see the stats.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Ticket checks are in place as are penalty fares. Since penalty fares were reintroduced, they've gone through the roof, which shows how many were travelling for free during those months with no ticket checks.

From the volume of people using rail services at the end of 2019 and early 2020, it wasn't surprising tickets were not being checked. The carriages were packed like sardines and guards or RPOs could not have done their job anyway unless they started physically walking across people.

I always think of the scene at the end of Crocodile Dundee when Paul Hogan is reunited with Linda Kozlowski and he has to walk across everyone's shoulders to get across the New York subway platform. Many central UK stations were like this this time last year, such as Leeds and Manchester Oxford Road.

Its not such a bad thing that numbers have dropped - rail travel is less stressful and more enjoyable. Companies like Northern must have been hemorrhaging in ticketless travel prior to Covid so hopefully they have now had the chance to pull their socks up.

CJ