Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[Mojo]

The Supermarkets and Covid-19 thread has gone OT talking about Garden Centres.

Within the wording of

' Part 2 '
' Restrictions on Movement '
and
' that it is reasonably necessary for the person concerned (“P”) to leave or be outside the place where P is living '

You have stopped reading too soon! If you follow along into the section below that, it says that the first exception to the ‘Stay At Home’ section is that it is reasonably necessary for you to leave your home “to buy goods or obtain services from any business or service” that is allowed to be open.

As an aside, reading your post just made me chuckle as it reminded me of a time during the last lockdown where my other half made me take an abrupt turn into the Lidl’s car park as we were going round the gyratory system in Watford and he saw a police car in the traffic ahead. We were on our way home from Wickes with 6 bags of compost and a load of timber in the back and he was convinced they were going to pull us over.

 

[kristiang85]

There seems to be a lot of quite significant opposition to the lockdown online now - more MPs are getting queasy about it, and more significant voices are being heard. Let's see what happens tomorow - it might be too late, but I get a sense there is hope now.

 

[brad465]

Yes it's excellent news that the R rate has dropped to 1 now. The reckless lockdown should be scrapped, paused or cut short. But sadly I very much doubt Boris is going to do that. There will be a vote on it tomorrow in parliament, but it appears it will still definitely pass.

I agree the lockdown won't be scrapped, but should the slowdown and hopeful decline continue/emerge over the next month there will be evidence and very strong calls not to extend it. If it suddenly goes up again it raises the question about the role of schools in this, given half term effects are starting to feed into the infection rates, but will be a temporary respite if schools are significant.

Elsewhere Chris Whitty has been subject of MP scrutiny today, where he's had to try and defend himself to MPs voicing concerns about negative impacts of lockdown:

Covid: Destructive rules only current option, says Chris Whitty

England's chief medical officer defends lockdowns as a further 397 coronavirus deaths are recorded.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Economically and socially destructive" lockdowns are the only practical option until a Covid vaccine and better drugs are available, Chris Whitty has said.

England's chief medical officer rejected calls from some scientists to pursue "herd immunity" instead.

England is due to replace tiered regional restrictions with a month-long nationwide lockdown from Thursday.

It comes as the UK recorded a further 397 coronavirus deaths and 20,018 confirmed cases on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, more details of England's lockdown have also been revealed, with the publication of the legislation that will bring them into force.

The regulations specify fines starting at £100 for rule breakers, potentially rising to a maximum of £6,400 for repeat offences.

Some Tory MPs have attacked the move towards another nationwide lockdown, with one saying the government was "losing the plot".

Prof Whitty was quizzed by a select committee about an anti-lockdown campaign, known as The Great Barrington Declaration.

 

[HSTEd]

Elsewhere Chris Whitty has been subject of MP scrutiny today, where he's had to try and defend himself to MPs voicing concerns about negative impacts of lockdown:

They are the only option if your priority is preserving the ruling class after all.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

You have stopped reading too soon! If you follow along into the section below that, it says that the first exception to the ‘Stay At Home’ section is that it is reasonably necessary for you to leave your home “to buy goods or obtain services from any business or service” that is allowed to be open.

Is there any reference to how many times per day you can do this? Not that one would, in winter weather, but if there is no such stipulation, you could spend all day outdoors and claim ‘I’m on my way to/from <insert name of retailer> in the highly unlikely event of being challenged, yes?

 

[Mugby]

There seems to be a lot of quite significant opposition to the lockdown online now - more MPs are getting queasy about it, and more significant voices are being heard. Let's see what happens tomorow - it might be too late, but I get a sense there is hope now.

Yes, it's very encouraging to see this, in Westminster, not just some unknown backbenchers but some very prominent figures in the Conservative Party.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I agree the lockdown won't be scrapped, but should the slowdown and hopeful decline continue/emerge over the next month there will be evidence and very strong calls not to extend it. If it suddenly goes up again it raises the question about the role of schools in this, given half term effects are starting to feed into the infection rates, but will be a temporary respite if schools are significant.

Elsewhere Chris Whitty has been subject of MP scrutiny today, where he's had to try and defend himself to MPs voicing concerns about negative impacts of lockdown:

Covid: Destructive rules only current option, says Chris Whitty

England's chief medical officer defends lockdowns as a further 397 coronavirus deaths are recorded.

www.bbc.co.uk

From that same BBC article, Whitty also said

Herd immunity had never been achieved in the treatment of Ebola and other new infectious diseases, argued Prof Whitty, and the kind of aggressive shielding of the vulnerable urged by the Barrington scientists would not be practically possible.

Why is he using Ebola as an argument against herd immunity? The numbers who perished from that horrific disease were small in comparison to Covid, were they not? How did that outbreak get contained? Is/was there a vaccine developed?

 

[david1212]

In response to the posts above since my previous one indeed all down to interpretation and emphasis.

I picked up on ' that it is reasonably necessary for the person concerned (“P”) to leave or be outside the place where P is living '

Hence while as Mojo picks up the wording indeed includes “to buy goods or obtain services from any business or service” that is allowed to be open one item required logically has to be reasonably necessary.

If not it makes the closure of some outlets unfair e.g. being sensible Christmas decorations are not reasonably necessary so to my thinking illogical to be totally fine within the policy as intended to travel some distance out of town to a garden centre just for these while high street shops also with a stock are forced to be closed.

Similarly for public transport while nothing specifically said about essential travel only again it should be within ' reasonably necessary .... to be outside the place where P is living '


I too can't now see this lockdown being scrapped or terminated early. After all BoJo & co are doing themselves no favours by constantly changing policy without enough time to find if the previous one is working. If the predictions of Whitty and Vallance do turn out to have been very pessimistic logically whatever the policy is from 3rd December it should be significantly less restrictive hence both a moral and economic boost for Christmas.

 

[bramling]

There seems to be a lot of quite significant opposition to the lockdown online now - more MPs are getting queasy about it, and more significant voices are being heard. Let's see what happens tomorow - it might be too late, but I get a sense there is hope now.

The mood is very different now. I posted something anti-lockdown on my local Facebook yesterday. Even as recently as a couple of months ago that would have unleashed a pack of hounds, yet thusfar I’ve had 19 likes.

People aren’t happy with this, both for what it is, and the way it has been handled.

No wonder Boris seemed shifty at the news conference.

I suspect the main theme is that people are simply going to ignore this as far as practicably possible. I don’t think we will be seeing a repeat of the empty streets we saw in the spring. Realistically this is not going to be a lockdown, it’s simply going to be a closure of pubs, restaurants and some shops. How much that’s going to achieve is a matter for conjecture, tragically the one thing it is going to do is crucify a load of businesses and cost us yet more in support finance.

 

[midland1]

Got my hair got late Monday, the barber said he had people in all day from dustmen to bankers and they are all saying the same thing that they feed up with it all and it is now ridiculous.

Sorry should be hair CUT!

 

[yorkie]

Why is he using Ebola as an argument against herd immunity?

I think talk of "herd immunity" is probably best avoided as different people use it to mean different things. I think it's probably better to talk about reaching endemic equilibrium.

The numbers who perished from that horrific disease were small in comparison to Covid, were they not? How did that outbreak get contained? Is/was there a vaccine developed?

I'm not sure of the exact detail but, based on what I've read (and without researching again), my understanding is:
- much lower rate of asymptomatics (or maybe none?)
- much shorter incubation period
- much worse symptoms, often leading to death

Sars-Cov-2 is pretty much the opposite of Ebola!

 

[Smidster]

Keeping an eye out for developments regarding already booked hotels, specifically Travelodge in England and North Wales, during November. Many people will presumably have taken up the '2 nights for the price of 1' Saver rate offer, which would normally mean it's not refundable, but if the hotel isn't open for leisure guests then presumably they may have to do the refund/voucher thing again. Premier Inn were quick off the mark and have offered vouchers or a full refund, but Travelodge are apparently still considering their options. If anyone sees anything definite it would be appreciated if they could flag it up on this thread.

I had a Travelodge booking for next week and have been told that the hotel is going to be closed (And it wasn't a work trip so I was going to cancel anyway)

The e-mail gives the option of either getting a refund or taking a voucher with a 25% bonus on top.

I think I will take the refund...While I would hope to be staying at hotels again shortly (and certainly don't have any safety concerns) I am aware that Travelodge isn't in the best shape financially and it isn't an amount of money I would want to lose (though I accept that if we all do the same it makes it more likely they go bust)

It does seem to vary by hotel though so keep an eye on your e-mail.

 

[yorksrob]

From that same BBC article, Whitty also said

Why is he using Ebola as an argument against herd immunity? The numbers who perished from that horrific disease were small in comparison to Covid, were they not? How did that outbreak get contained? Is/was there a vaccine developed?

Mr Whitty also said that the tier system had made a difference particularly the tier three restrictions. I'd be interested to know what evidence he has to back up his claims about the tier 3 restrictions.

 

[Smidster]

Mr Whitty also said that the tier system had made a difference particularly the tier three restrictions. I'd be interested to know what evidence he has to back up his claims about the tier 3 restrictions.

It is certainly the case that case numbers are well down around Liverpool although that looks to have been happening well before Tier 3 would have had any impact.

What we are seeing in the data would suggest that we may be about to go into Lockdown after the peak again though that will be confirmed over the next few days. At least if that is the case then the 25 days may be enough to make a real dent on the numbers.

Are there any provisions to make changes mid-way through? It would be great if we could say reopen some shops after a couple of weeks.

I will be interested to see what the mobility data looks like and how different it is to what we saw in March.

 

[yorksrob]

It is certainly the case that case numbers are well down around Liverpool although that looks to have been happening well before Tier 3 would have had any impact.

What we are seeing in the data would suggest that we may be about to go into Lockdown after the peak again though that will be confirmed over the next few days. At least if that is the case then the 25 days may be enough to make a real dent on the numbers.

Are there any provisions to make changes mid-way through? It would be great if we could say reopen some shops after a couple of weeks.

I will be interested to see what the mobility data looks like and how different it is to what we saw in March.

I'm personally highly sceptical that tier three restrictions would have made any significant difference, given that households were already prevented from meeting indoors. I remain open to being surprised though.

 

[island]

Is there any reference to how many times per day you can do this? Not that one would, in winter weather, but if there is no such stipulation, you could spend all day outdoors and claim ‘I’m on my way to/from <insert name of retailer> in the highly unlikely event of being challenged, yes?

There is no limit, but if we are going down the road of theoretical scenarios that won’t realistically happen, if challenged you could be asked to show your order confirmation, as those businesses are click & collect only. More straightforwardly, you could claim to be on your way to/from a public open place for open-air recreation.

To the extent the police will be enforcing any of this (which will be very limited) it will be looking at businesses that are open when they shouldn’t be and prohibited gatherings.

 

[birchesgreen]

Is there any reference to how many times per day you can do this? Not that one would, in winter weather, but if there is no such stipulation, you could spend all day outdoors and claim ‘I’m on my way to/from <insert name of retailer> in the highly unlikely event of being challenged, yes?

Why not, unless they've been tailing you all day how would they know?

 

[trebor79]

There seems to be a lot of quite significant opposition to the lockdown online now - more MPs are getting queasy about it, and more significant voices are being heard. Let's see what happens tomorow - it might be too late, but I get a sense there is hope now.

Not a chance. Most of the Conservatives threatening to defy the government will change their mind come the vote. Labour will vote for the lockdown therefore it will pass, so only the most principled will sacrifice their future prospects.

From that same BBC article, Whitty also said

Herd immunity had never been achieved in the treatment of Ebola and other new infectious diseases, argued Prof Whitty, and the kind of aggressive shielding of the vulnerable urged by the Barrington scientists would not be practically possible.

Why is he using Ebola as an argument against herd immunity? The numbers who perished from that horrific disease were small in comparison to Covid, were they not? How did that outbreak get contained? Is/was there a vaccine developed?

That really angered me, I really hope the hack has got the wrong end of the stick here, because the only other explanation is that Whitty is being deliberately obfuscatory.
Ebola kills nearly everybody it infects, therefore herd immunity is indeed impossible because there will never be a large number of immune survivors walking around. COVID kills almost nobody that it infects, so herd immunity is very feasible indeed as you end up with a very large number of immune survivors.
I also don't accept the assertion that "Aggressively shielding" the vulnerable is not practical, given we are about to "aggressively shield" the entire population.
I had a lot of time and respect for Whitty but I'm starting to waver - he's either trying to save face or it just so contemptuous of mere mortals questioning his advice that he is prepared to use arguments that are plainly invalid to anyone with a modicum of scientific knowledge in the (correct) expectation that the people questioning him are too dumb to call him out on it. Either explanation is bad.

Is there any reference to how many times per day you can do this? Not that one would, in winter weather, but if there is no such stipulation, you could spend all day outdoors and claim ‘I’m on my way to/from <insert name of retailer> in the highly unlikely event of being challenged, yes?

No, and nor was there in the first lockdown legislation. BoJo's edict first time that you could exercise for an hour once per day was also not mentioned in law.
Basically, unless you're obviously hanging around with other people nobody is going to question you anyway. I fully intend to take the kids to see my parents at countryside locations when the weather is nice.

 

[kristiang85]

Not a chance. Most of the Conservatives threatening to defy the government will change their mind come the vote. Labour will vote for the lockdown therefore it will pass, so only the most principled will sacrifice their future prospects.

Oh there's no chance it will be voted down today, but it looks hopeful that more and more people are questioning the strategy, so hopefully it means by the time December comes, some sensibility will return.

All the key metrics are already falling, and Sage's evidence is looking shakier by the day.

 

[STINT47]

Looking at the figures week on week and it would appear that the number of cases ste starting to drop already. Have we therefore ended up with the worst of all worlds?

We've missed the chance to lockdown earlier and save lives but cannot claim that at least we haven't impacted the economy and other health issues as we are just about to do that for a month.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Mr Whitty also said that the tier system had made a difference particularly the tier three restrictions. I'd be interested to know what evidence he has to back up his claims about the tier 3 restrictions.

Well Liverpool was c500/day two weeks ago and now down to c200/day how much is Tier 3 who knows my own view is the peak of students have fallen out which has been seen across all the big university cities across the UK.

Oh there's no chance it will be voted down today, but it looks hopeful that more and more people are questioning the strategy, so hopefully it means by the time December comes, some sensibility will return.

All the key metrics are already falling, and Sage's evidence is looking shakier by the day.

It will be passed easily as Labour is supporting it and it won't be extended because the rates are falling already as a result of previous changes but of course BoJo will say its all down to the lockdown.

 

[HSTEd]

Starmer now demanding eternal lockdown until an arbitrary R figure is achieved.

 

[Crossover]

Lockdown bill approved by MP's by a majority of over 500

 

[adc82140]

38 Conservatives rebelled. Any MP who represents a constituency in Wales, Scotland or NI has no business to be voting in this. I hope they abstained.

 

[wireforever]

When the next debate over the lockdown happens and it is extended (this is quite possible still)how many Mp's will vote against the Govt not many if the R rate has not come down

 

[HSTEd]

When the next debate over the lockdown happens and it is extended (this is quite possible still)how many Mp's will vote against the Govt not many if the R rate has not come down

Well if the R-rate has not come down, by the time the lockdown is scheduled to end we will be well on the way to this nightmare being over.
So a few more weeks of lockdown whilst it burns to completion would be a small price to pay.

 

[trainophile]

I had a Travelodge booking for next week and have been told that the hotel is going to be closed (And it wasn't a work trip so I was going to cancel anyway)

The e-mail gives the option of either getting a refund or taking a voucher with a 25% bonus on top.

I think I will take the refund...While I would hope to be staying at hotels again shortly (and certainly don't have any safety concerns) I am aware that Travelodge isn't in the best shape financially and it isn't an amount of money I would want to lose (though I accept that if we all do the same it makes it more likely they go bust)

It does seem to vary by hotel though so keep an eye on your e-mail.

Many thanks for that. No email received yet but my first booking isn't until 24th November so I guess they are doing them in order of immediacy. Now to see what I can salvage from the train tickets...

 

[Mojo]

Not sure if this is best here, or in the Supermarkets thread, but somehow missed this article from The Grocer yesterday

English supermarkets told to cordon off areas of non-essential goods

The Grocer understands the UK government has told retailers it will not go as far as the Welsh ban

www.thegrocer.co.uk

Stores in England will be told to cordon off non-essential products, if they are sold in separate departments, under rules to be brought in as part of Boris Johnson’s new lockdown.

The Grocer understands the UK government has told retailers it will not go as far as the Welsh ban, which forced vast swathes of non-essential goods to be closed off in supermarkets and c-stores across the country, when it launched its ongoing Covid ‘firebreak’.

Supermarkets will be allowed to continue to sell non-essential items when they are in “mixed aisles”.

However, in talks today the government told supermarket bosses new restrictions would be introduced in the second lockdown on the sale of such items when they were sold in seperate areas of the stores.

Retailers described the move as “confusing” and warned that it could lead to a backlash from consumers, like that seen in Wales.

Many supermarket clothing departments, including Asda with its George units, clothes departments in M&S food and F&F in Tesco, will fall foul of the restrictions, due to come into force this Thursday.

One source involved in the talks said: “The government have said that they are not going to force retailers to shut down all non-essential goods, like happened in Wales.

“However, those stores which have specific areas of so-called non-essential goods will have to cordon them off.

“They will not have to close off aisles where there is a mix.”

The move comes despite the industry holding talks with ministers to try to stave off any Welsh-style restrictions, as revealed by The Grocer last week.

Until the plans for the new lockdown emerged, minsters in England had been keen to avoid a distinction between essential and non-essential goods, but sources said they had toughened their stance since the plans for the second phase of lockdown were revealed on Saturday, following dire warnigs from scientific advisers about the spread of the disease.

Further details on the exact goods impacted are expected to be published in the next 24 hours.

A source said: “Retailers understand that restrictions are going to come into play but what they are very keen to do is to avoid confusion and scenes like we had in Wales when retailers and their staff were having to explain to shoppers why they couldn’t buy baby clothes.”

The plans in England come with new data showing that during the Welsh lockdown there has been an 88% revenue increase of ‘non-essential items’ purchased online.

Liberty Marketing studied Google Analytics data of 10 clients who sell products deemed ‘non-essential’ by the Welsh government, including online beauty stores, book stores, home stores and clothing shops.

There was also a 44% increase in visits, 74% increase in products bought and an 84% conversion rate increase, all from Welsh traffic.

The Welsh government admitted its move had been to ensure a level playing field with other shops forced to close, but retail bosses warned it would only lead to an unfair advantage for the likes of Amazon and other online companies.

Hopefully this isn't true, but I do remember many shops last time closing off sections, albeit for a very short initial period.

 

[Crossover]

Not sure if this is best here, or in the Supermarkets thread, but somehow missed this article from The Grocer yesterday

English supermarkets told to cordon off areas of non-essential goods

The Grocer understands the UK government has told retailers it will not go as far as the Welsh ban

www.thegrocer.co.uk

Hopefully this isn't true, but I do remember many shops last time closing off sections, albeit for a very short initial period.

Baked Beans will henceforth be found alongside the trosuers and jumpers

 

[Dent]

Well if the R-rate has not come down, by the time the lockdown is scheduled to end we will be well on the way to this nightmare being over.
So a few more weeks of lockdown whilst it burns to completion would be a small price to pay.

The R-rate is on a downward trend now. If it starts increasing after the start of lockdown then that would suggest that the lockdown is having the opposite of the desired effect and therefore should definitely not be extended.