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Thanks, that's interesting. As someone else who doesn't really know much about betting odds.. am I correct in guessing that the odds offered depend on a combination of what the betting agency thinks the probability actually is, and what people are betting, calculated so that the agency doesn't lose too much money whatever the outcome?
The Guardian's election breakdown timeline is utterly essential for tonight. Give this one a read. The key takeaways are that Florida will give us our first indications around midnight, and that if you're up at 4am when the West declares, you'll know for sure whether it will all end up hanging on Pennsylvania or not.
I'm prepared for tonight, with a reassuringly capacious bottle of cider in the fridge. It's 6%, so at least, if this all blows up in our faces, there'll be some kind of salve. There's another bottle riding on the outcome, too - though I might be buying it for my friend Izzy, instead. We've got a wager going.
Holding out for a Biden win. The planet depends on it. It's extremely difficult to communicate - with the appropriate degree of fullness - just how much is riding on the outcome of tonight. (And, if it all comes crashing down, at least I win the bet. She went for a Biden victory.)
Thanks, that's interesting. As someone else who doesn't really know much about betting odds.. am I correct in guessing that the odds offered depend on a combination of what the betting agency thinks the probability actually is, and what people are betting, calculated so that the agency doesn't lose too much money whatever the outcome?
Betfair exchange is different. It is based entirely on what the ‘market’ thinks, as you are simply betting against other (anonymised) people, and ‘trading’ your stake based on the market position. Essentially it is like buying and selling shares. Betfair never loses, and makes its money two ways:
1) by charging a small commission on each stake traded (charged to the winner).
2) by holding the punters money in their own account without paying interest. For example the US election markets have been open for years; as of now there is a third of a billion quid traded on it, which each punter will have had to commit to by having cleared funds in their Betfair account. So that is sat in Betfair’s bank Account just on that market, earning interest. Some of it will have been there’s a while (including mine). In total, I’d be surprised if Betfair isn’t sitting on over £10bn cash at any one time, and even if it is only earning 0.5%, that’s still £50m pa income.
There is money to be made when the market shifts rapidly, but before the ‘high street’ bookies can change their odds, as you can then guarantee winnings. However markets such as that are few and far between.
A disputed result and court battle that results in Biden taking office in January might be the best result for the UK. Biden is best for the UK with the exception of the immediate future of Brexit. There is a high likelihood that we will be three weeks into a free trade agreement with the EU before Biden takes office. If the election is disputed he won't have much time to spare on foreign policy until he takes office. Settling the issue before he is able to interfere is more likely to mean a health relationship between a Biden Administration and our government.
Rational analysis says Biden will win and I hope he does. My gut says Trump will win again. I really hope I am wrong.
I don't see that Biden has any interest in interfering with any agreement between the UK and the EU. And he'll have plenty of other things to attend to anyway - unless he loses, in which case what he says counts for very little.
Biden would have more interest in a deal between the UK and the US, but even then it won't be high on his list and he has no formal power until 20 January anyway. But there are no circumstances where such a deal could be signed before the inauguration. Economists seem to predict that such a deal is worth well under 1% of UK GDP, so won't anywhere near make up for the loss of trade with the EU deal or no deal. Because of the things we'd have to hand over to win it, potentially allowing American firms to muscle in on the NHS not to mention the chlorinated chicken, I rather think we'd be better off without a US deal.
A disputed result and court battle that results in Biden taking office in January might be the best result for the UK. Biden is best for the UK with the exception of the immediate future of Brexit. There is a high likelihood that we will be three weeks into a free trade agreement with the EU before Biden takes office. If the election is disputed he won't have much time to spare on foreign policy until he takes office. Settling the issue before he is able to interfere is more likely to mean a health relationship between a Biden Administration and our government.
I would have thought it would be better for us if Biden does have time to prepare properly on foreign policy - since that his foreign policy is likely to strongly favour co-operation with allies and restoring military alliances. That puts us in rather stronger position when it comes to dealing with the likes of Russia, China, North Korea, IS, etc.
However, I wonder if a disputed court battle might work out better for Biden's presidency in one respect: I would expect that, as soon as Trump figures he's definitely lost (assuming that happens), he'll set about full time doing everything he can to wreck things for his successor, as well as having the Government destroy any paperwork and computer files that might provide evidence for his own abuses of power. The more time he spends fighting court battles and believing he has a chance of prevailing, the less time he has to create a trail of destruction before he leaves office in January.
Yes, the oil rich nation has been rocked by religious and ethnic tensions and potential for armed militias interfering with free elections. A spokesman for IS said
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I don't see that Biden has any interest in interfering with any agreement between the UK and the EU. And he'll have plenty of other things to attend to anyway - unless he loses, in which case what he says counts for very little.
Biden would have more interest in a deal between the UK and the US, but even then it won't be high on his list and he has no formal power until 20 January anyway. But there are no circumstances where such a deal could be signed before the inauguration. Economists seem to predict that such a deal is worth well under 1% of UK GDP, so won't anywhere near make up for the loss of trade with the EU deal or no deal. Because of the things we'd have to hand over to win it, potentially allowing American firms to muscle in on the NHS not to mention the chlorinated chicken, I rather think we'd be better off without a US deal.
I agree a bilateral trade deal with the US is not worth the concessions that would be necessary to obtain it. If we join the CPTPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), which is looking likely now UK has support of several member governments, then we could get an FTA with the US by default and on much better terms should Biden chose to join. It was Obama's pet project that Trump withdrew from shortly before its start date. It has been rebooted by Japan and now interested in like minded non pacific countries joining (UK and India being most likely). Japan, Canada and Australia are the sort of countries we should seek to become more like as we carve out a new role in the world i.e. medium sized countries not part of confederation, some real military power but insufficient to start wars like Iraq, pro democracy and advocates of free trade.
There is an assumption (particularly from people who hate brexit), that Biden would weigh in against the UK because of he is an "Irish" American. I think he likes to big it up for votes but short of really dangerous behaviour by the UK its not in American interests to risk an important security relationship with the UK due to a personal dislike of brexit.
I would have thought it would be better for us if Biden does have time to prepare properly on foreign policy - since that his foreign policy is likely to strongly favour co-operation with allies and restoring military alliances. That puts us in rather stronger position when it comes to dealing with the likes of Russia, China, North Korea, IS, etc.
However, I wonder if a disputed court battle might work out better for Biden's presidency in one respect: I would expect that, as soon as Trump figures he's definitely lost (assuming that happens), he'll set about full time doing everything he can to wreck things for his successor, as well as having the Government destroy any paperwork and computer files that might provide evidence for his own abuses of power. The more time he spends fighting court battles and believing he has a chance of prevailing, the less time he has to create a trail of destruction before he leaves office in January.
I suspect that a Biden victory would cause a subtle version of what the UK did on eve of most colonies gaining independence (having a colossal bonfire of incriminating paperwork).
My view on many of the global issues is that its time to take advantage of our position tucked away safe in the north west corner of Europe. We should try to maintain our military and intelligence capacity but try to avoid committing it. Let the EU and US deal with the likes of Russia. US policy on China has bipartisan support. We shouldn't be in position were the US election makes a fundamental difference to our foreign policy.
BBC calling Indiana (11) for Trump.
Unsurprising, as the state is staunchly Republican.
Over the border, Kentucky is coming in even, though Trump's slender lead there is likely to increase as the quantity of early/absentee votes falls away over time. All the same, it's promising for Biden that the state isn't a dead cert yet, because it consistently clocks in Republicans at election-time - a red state indeed. Could the precise vote distribution have wider implications for the swing states, or are they simply too much in their own bubbles?
In Indiana, Vigo County, on the border with Illinois, is a true bellwether. It's voted the way of every winning president since 1958. But we won't know how that county voted for a while yet.
The BBC are also now describing Georgia as a toss-up. Which is tectonic, quite frankly.
(automerge)
The Associated Press have called Kentucky (8) for Trump, as expected.
They've also called Vermont (3) for Biden. Bernie Sanders' state is as blue as you can get.
The scores are 3-19. Georgia will give us our first indication of whether this will drag in or not; Biden doesn't need it necessarily, but Trump can't afford to lose here.
Biden currently has an early lead of around 5% in Georgia. Trump will eat away at that, however. 78% absentee voting may well push it towards Biden.
After that comes Florida.
Which could be decisive.
The Republicans feel they've done better than expected there. It's neck and neck in the early ballots, but the traditionally-blue Miami-Dade County appears to be showing strongly for Trump in the early voting, with the Democrats' lead down to a third of 2016. Biden can take comfort from the fact that he appears poised to carry Pinellas County, which is another bellwether.
If Trump does take Florida, then we move to the Midwestern long game.
Somebody better start paging Katharine Hepburn and Cary Grant, because this election could end up being The Philadelphia Story.
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BBC calling Indiana (11) for Trump.
Unsurprising, as the state is staunchly Republican.
Over the border, Kentucky is coming in even, though Trump's slender lead there is likely to increase as the quantity of early/absentee votes falls away over time. All the same, it's promising for Biden that the state isn't a dead cert yet, because it consistently clocks in Republicans at election-time - a red state indeed. Could the precise vote distribution have wider implications for the swing states, or are they simply too much in their own bubbles?
In Indiana, Vigo County, on the border with Illinois, is a true bellwether. It's voted the way of every winning president since 1958. But we won't know how that county voted for a while yet.
The BBC are also now describing Georgia as a toss-up. Which is tectonic, quite frankly.
(automerge)
The Associated Press have called Kentucky (8) for Trump, as expected.
They've also called Vermont (3) for Biden. Bernie Sanders' state is as blue as you can get.
The scores are 3-19. Georgia will give us our first indication of whether this will drag in or not; Biden doesn't need it necessarily, but Trump can't afford to lose here.
Biden currently has an early lead of around 5% in Georgia. Trump will eat away at that, however. 78% absentee voting may well push it towards Biden.
After that comes Florida.
Which could be decisive.
The Republicans feel they've done better than expected there. It's neck and neck in the early ballots, but the traditionally-blue Miami-Dade County appears to be showing strongly for Trump in the early voting, with the Democrats' lead down to a third of 2016. Biden can take comfort from the fact that he appears poised to carry Pinellas County, which is another bellwether.
If Trump does take Florida, then we move to the Midwestern long game.
Somebody better start paging Katharine Hepburn and Cary Grant, because this election could end up being The Philadelphia Story.
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I think Trump will hold Florida. So we're in for the long haul. Ohio might be worth keeping tabs on - even given the fact that early votes are counted first, some sources have an unexpectedly high Biden lead. If Trump loses Ohio, that's the election for Biden.
I'm watching Florida flip every few minutes with every update from county votes. Current difference is 6000 votes state-wide. Standard Florida election night basketcase. Lesson; never factor FL into your models as it's permanently unpredictable. Been that way for as long as I remember.
I'm watching Florida flip every few minutes with every update from county votes. Current difference is 6000 votes state-wide. Standard Florida election night basketcase. Lesson; never factor FL into your models as it's permanently unpredictable. Been that way for as long as I remember.
Of course, but it's undeniable that later votes will favour Trump. The Democrats need to rack up votes in Miami-Dade to be sure of taking Florida, and that's exactly where they're failing.
Georgia is on a knife edge. Literally just flashed blue and went back to red. Now it's blue again.
Nationally, Biden leads 85-63. The race for the South Carolinian senate remains too close to call.
Strongly suspect this won't be finalised in the next 24 hours, like 2000. Biden looks to have the popular vote in the bag though, but the electoral college looks too close to call.
As I suspected, this is a lot closer than people thought. The worst case scenario of a legally contested election is getting more likely as the night goes on.
Trump has won surely, i was looking at the election map on the Guardian and even if Biden wins all of the undeclared states he is ahead in he'll fall short of 270 (unless i'm missing something?)
Although the indicators are that Biden will win, two caveats worry me:
- The polls and odds were roughly the same in 2016 for Hillary
- In December we were thinking it would be a close election here, but it turns out it was a Tory landslide.
It looks like my concerns were justified in the end.
Currently 1.4 for Trump and 3.0 for Biden on Bet365 odds. I still think this will take a few days to be decided though, not that that will stop trump from claiming victory.
Some people couldn't believe that the Democratic Party would manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but their disastrous choice of the years-too-old Biden, then his refusal to engage with the electorate on the basis, presumably, that he had nothing to say beyond that he wasn't Trump, may have managed to achieve it. Words fail me about the current situation.
The Guardian's election breakdown timeline is utterly essential for tonight. Give this one a read. The key takeaways are that Florida will give us our first indications around midnight, and that if you're up at 4am when the West declares, you'll know for sure whether it will all end up hanging on Pennsylvania or not.
I'm prepared for tonight, with a reassuringly capacious bottle of cider in the fridge. It's 6%, so at least, if this all blows up in our faces, there'll be some kind of salve. There's another bottle riding on the outcome, too - though I might be buying it for my friend Izzy, instead. We've got a wager going.
Holding out for a Biden win. The planet depends on it. It's extremely difficult to communicate - with the appropriate degree of fullness - just how much is riding on the outcome of tonight. (And, if it all comes crashing down, at least I win the bet. She went for a Biden victory.)
William Hill were offering 50/1 on trump as president last night. Wish I'd chuck a cheeky £50 on it!
As usual polls favour the left leaning side of the election.
Trumps latest press coneference is a joke, how the republican party let him stand up there and say the vote is fraud is beyond me. Like he revels in the attention and drama of it all.
It feels like corbyn and our last GE, there for the taking but the opposition couldn't muster a strogg candidate that people would get behind.
Shame it's gone to the wire again. I would have preferred a clear and decisive victory either way I think.
I'm still none the wiser as to what posessed the BBC to cancel all their late evening Radio 4 schedule in order to spend five hours proclaiming that no one will know the result until five days time when the postal votes are counted. They could have waited for the news to impart that.
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