dailymail - One in five train services could be axed as treasury tightens purse strings

[paul1609]

Because Canary Wharf is a sod to get to - and from much of Essex you'd need to go into London and back out.

It should never have been built, and it is good to see the City is now the centre of business again (at least pre-COVID). If there's a reduction in need for office space, turn it into flats and pretend it was never built.

Canary Wharf is actually easy to get to by road from the East either North or South of the River.
Thats why Kingsferry Coaches (now National Express) have been able to compete with rail.
Even the peak coaches are scheduled for 1 hr 4 mins for Bluebell Hill Park Ride to Canary Wharf (and normally arrive in under the hour).
Bluebell Hill Park n ride is situated next to Junction 3 of the M2 half way between Maidstone and the Medway Towns.
Theres even oodles of reasonably priced (by London standards) car parking adjacent to the Jubilee Line in North Greenwich.
Rail wise everybody goes on HS1 to Stratford and then DLR.

 

[Ianno87]

too much ORCATS raiding going on. the revenue sharing rules need rewriting

No, forget ORCATS.

Each extra service added will generate net extra income (i.e. New revenue to the railway excluding anything abstracted from another operator). The "sweet spot" is the last service added which generates more income than its marginal operating cost, after which its returns are diminishing.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Canary Wharf is actually easy to get to by road from the East either North or South of the River.

Yes, that's why someone might drive. Tons of parking too, though I doubt it's cheap neither are peak time rail fares.

 

[paul1609]

Car parking: North Greenwich station £12.50 per day (others in the area are in that ball park), Ashford International £6 to 8 per day
Ashford International plus HS Anytime Travelcard £80, Anytime Return plus HS £80 to £90

 

[Ken H]

I would love to know how much expenditure would be reduced by cutting services by 20%, savings to railtrack would be negative numbers as they would lose income and there would be virtually no reduction in expenditure, the only savings I see would be drivers wages and savings from stock being laid up, this would be pretty small fry on the scale of things.

Think network rail (railtrack???) would have to cut its cloth according to its income.

No, forget ORCATS.

Each extra service added will generate net extra income (i.e. New revenue to the railway excluding anything abstracted from another operator). The "sweet spot" is the last service added which generates more income than its marginal operating cost, after which its returns are diminishing.

is there really the extra passenger demand there just now?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ashford International plus HS Anytime Travelcard £80, Anytime Return plus HS £80 to £90

Wow, that's outrageous, it's only about 50 miles. £47/£42 from MKC, which is only 15mph slower!

 

[takno]

Take off lease all the trains that only run in the peak or strengthen offpeak services to 8-12 cars. Make redundant all the staff not needed if they don't run. Cancel things like the upgrade of Seelhurspaghetti Junction north of Croydon which is not needed if the peak hour only fasts to London Bridge/Bedford no longer run. Reduced maintenance costs as infrastructure has less use with the consequent ability to defer renewals etc.

Peak loadings through East Croydon prior to Covid lasted several hours longer than the peak hours services, and even with off-peak volumes of trains the service falls apart several times a day. Cancelling capital works is largely off the table anyway because it will just deepen the coming depression. Even if it wasn't, cancelling work which will take 10 years and is required to properly meet current demand seems pretty stupid

 

[theageofthetra]

Canary Wharf is actually easy to get to by road from the East either North or South of the River.
Thats why Kingsferry Coaches (now National Express) have been able to compete with rail.
Even the peak coaches are scheduled for 1 hr 4 mins for Bluebell Hill Park Ride to Canary Wharf (and normally arrive in under the hour).
Bluebell Hill Park n ride is situated next to Junction 3 of the M2 half way between Maidstone and the Medway Towns.
Theres even oodles of reasonably priced (by London standards) car parking adjacent to the Jubilee Line in North Greenwich.
Rail wise everybody goes on HS1 to Stratford and then DLR.

Yes used to drive from Sevenoaks with another colleague during the horror years of Connex. That was when it was only £5 to park at North Greenwich mind!

 

[Dave1987]

Does everything stop there?

At Colchester at XX.30 past the hour off-peak there is usually a fairly large amount of people transferring from platform 3 to platform 4 (a not inconsiderable distance) to get on a service that stops at Stratford.

 

[hwl]

Peak loadings through East Croydon prior to Covid lasted several hours longer than the peak hours services, and even with off-peak volumes of trains the service falls apart several times a day. Cancelling capital works is largely off the table anyway because it will just deepen the coming depression. Even if it wasn't, cancelling work which will take 10 years and is required to properly meet current demand seems pretty stupid

The government's latest revised revised housing target in the Southeast suggest that it will still be needed.

 

[Dave1987]

Indeed. The largest falls are likely to be seen on the very busy lines into London and may see almost none on those quiet branch lines which would transitionally be at risk of closure.

Thankfully I have read that the DFT and Treasury have been made aware of these potential costs of ceasing all services so I doubt lines will see all services cut completely but they may be cut to the absolute minimum.

 

[The Planner]

Take off lease all the trains that only run in the peak or strengthen offpeak services to 8-12 cars. Make redundant all the staff not needed if they don't run. Cancel things like the upgrade of Seelhurspaghetti Junction north of Croydon which is not needed if the peak hour only fasts to London Bridge/Bedford no longer run. Reduced maintenance costs as infrastructure has less use with the consequent ability to defer renewals etc.

Renewals are deferred often enough as it is. This gives the opportunity to catch up.

 

[21C101]

Peak loadings through East Croydon prior to Covid lasted several hours longer than the peak hours services, and even with off-peak volumes of trains the service falls apart several times a day. Cancelling capital works is largely off the table anyway because it will just deepen the coming depression. Even if it wasn't, cancelling work which will take 10 years and is required to properly meet current demand seems pretty stupid

I'm not advocating it, just illustrating what will happen in a scenario where funding is cut significantly but closures are off the table.

A worrying time for Roscos as sending stock offlease is the quickest cash saver.

 

[Railperf]

Makes sense to reduce the amount of services and add more stops on certain routes.

 

[Clarence Yard]

I'm not advocating it, just illustrating what will happen in a scenario where funding is cut significantly but closures are off the table.

A worrying time for Roscos as sending stock offlease is the quickest cash saver.

Not with the ROSCO lease conditions. Early termination may not save you any money at all - indeed you may have a hefty amount to pay under the contract as the "Termination Sum", including all of their "lost" rent as well as the usual delaps payments.

If stock is coming off lease and you don't renew, that is where you can make significant savings.

 

[6Gman]

You would have a pool of drivers employed by say NR. They would all be rostered to work all services and traction (with exceptions of little used tractions like 57s). So all drivers at Plymouth would drive voyagers, 802s and HSTs and have rostered work on all of them.
Plymouth probably isn't the best example, but at depots in places like Manchester , I wonder how many depot administarators could be cut out. And inevitably if more staff have more route and traction knowledge then fewer staff overall are needed to cover the service.

I think the potential to reduce admin staff would be less than you might think - 60 drivers need a certain amount of supervision, and I doubt it makes much difference whether that's 30+30 or 60.

And to counterbalance your last point, more route learning and refreshing would be required. Even in BR days large depots used "links" (groups of staff trained for limited route and traction knowledge) with a separate link (often known, for some reason I've never understood, as the "block") with wider knowledge who could plug gaps.

 

[Philip]

Apologies if already covered in the thread, but how do people think this will affect employment and jobs in the railway? Are compulsory redundancies in some areas likely within the next two years?

 

[dk1]

Apologies if already covered in the thread, but how do people think this will affect employment and jobs in the railway? Are compulsory redundancies in some areas likely within the next two years?

If anything is done it will most probably be through natural wastage. I would expect if & it really is a big if, any traincrew redundancy will be of the voluntary variety.

 

[Deepgreen]

The increase in working from home is an environmental boon - reducing travel and the energy-expensive provision of transport is a good thing, and allows (in theory) a better distribution of journey peaks - the old problem of the excessive stock requirements at peak hours is reduced and a 'smoothing' of the traffic day ensues. Of course the trick will be to get the new balance right.

 

[Bald Rick]

Take off lease all the trains that only run in the peak or strengthen offpeak services to 8-12 cars. Make redundant all the staff not needed if they don't run. Cancel things like the upgrade of Seelhurspaghetti Junction north of Croydon which is not needed if the peak hour only fasts to London Bridge/Bedford no longer run. Reduced maintenance costs as infrastructure has less use with the consequent ability to defer renewals etc.

Again, calculations?

 

[Dave1987]

Apologies if already covered in the thread, but how do people think this will affect employment and jobs in the railway? Are compulsory redundancies in some areas likely within the next two years?

Training a driver takes about three years to be fully competent and experienced enough to be "fully qualified" so I doubt there will be any redundancies. Just probably recruitment bans. The railway tends to have enough natural wastage through retirements and promotions etc to not need compulsory redundancies, but I know a fair few drivers who would grab it with both hands if it was offered.

 

[Philip]

Training a driver takes about three years to be fully competent and experienced enough to be "fully qualified" so I doubt there will be any redundancies. Just probably recruitment bans. The railway tends to have enough natural wastage through retirements and promotions etc to not need compulsory redundancies, but I know a fair few drivers who would grab it with both hands if it was offered.

To be honest I work in the retail side of things rather than traincrew, so that is the area I'm more concerned about.

 

[MissPWay]

If anything is done it will most probably be through natural wastage. I would expect if & it really is a big if, any traincrew redundancy will be of the voluntary variety.

There was a big wave of YTS trainees (when the local depots round here had all the coalfield traffic they could manage) from the early / mid 80’s coming up for retirement any time now.

RE: The posts above about ROSCO’s, they just surely be the most parasitic, grasping part of the privatised railway. I know people like to bang on about staff wages, but imagine having the sheer brass neck to charge what they charge for a 156 for example.

 

[Elecman]

Frankly they should know better but at that age most think they are invincible and it won't affect them. Many don't try unfortunately from what I have seen.



It should but I don't have a great deal confidence that it will frankly, because of COVID itself and changes to working practises on site associated with said disease but also are NR that on the ball anyway to spot these opportunities and get operators on board? Not in my experience.

err, Kiksby Tunnel

 

[The Planner]

It should but I don't have a great deal confidence that it will frankly, because of COVID itself and changes to working practises on site associated with said disease but also are NR that on the ball anyway to spot these opportunities and get operators on board? Not in my experience.

It is the operators that are asking NR to fill their boots if they can, which is a marked change from their normal stance. There are a long list of deferred renewals looking at being sped up.

 

[Dave1987]

To be honest I work in the retail side of things rather than traincrew, so that is the area I'm more concerned about.

Depends really. If you work as platform staff then I doubt you have much to worry about. Ticket offices I'm really not so sure about.....

 

[ChrisC]

If your journey involves just one train you might be able to work around a reduced frequency service quite easily. But add in connections and things get trickier. A fifty minute wait is a lot less palatable than a twenty minute one.

That is exactly what has happened with the Robin Hood Line in Nottinghamshire. East Midlands Railway have already cut the service throughout much of the day from 2tph to just 1tph. I can fully understand the need to do this as they can’t run empty trains for ever, although I have heard that there has been severe overcrowding on some weekend trains. The town of Mansfield with a population of approx 110,000 now only has an hourly service.

Just cutting trains out of the timetable without any retiming and consideration of onward connections is not going to encourage people back into the railway. Travelling from Mansfield and other stations on the Robin Hood Line does now mean waits for connections of 50 minutes at both Nottingham and Worksop. The hourly train that has been retained just misses connections to most destinations and Nottingham and the cutting and retiming if Northern services at Worksop has had the same effect there for passengers travelling north. If 20% of trains are to be cut onward connections ought to be considered but without a complete recast of timetables this will not happen.

 

[Philip]

Depends really. If you work as platform staff then I doubt you have much to worry about. Ticket offices I'm really not so sure about.....

Well across the last 6 months as an average we're probably selling about 150 tickets per 14-hour day with most of it local and some off peak London tickets, compared with about 500 per day in previous years with a fair proportion of those being walk up peak time London tickets!

I guess the unions will be prioritising protecting all the safety critical jobs and with more and more opportunities to buy online and potentially a simplified fares structure...

 

[paul1609]

Well across the last 6 months as an average we're probably selling about 150 tickets per 14-hour day with most of it local and some off peak London tickets, compared with about 500 per day in previous years with a fair proportion of those being walk up peak time London tickets!

I guess the unions will be prioritising protecting all the safety critical jobs and with more and more opportunities to buy online and potentially a simplified fares structure...

I think you've probably done a lot better than Southeast stations. I know of one station not a million miles away from where I live whose season ticket refunds totalled nearly £8 million, currently no longer has any season ticket holders and is now lucky to sell 50 tickets a day!

 

[43096]

RE: The posts above about ROSCO’s, they just surely be the most parasitic, grasping part of the privatised railway. I know people like to bang on about staff wages, but imagine having the sheer brass neck to charge what they charge for a 156 for example.

So perhaps you could enlighten us on what they charge for a 156, what sort of lease it is (dry/soggy/wet) and what else they are charging for in the lease.