Arriva Buses (including Greenline)

[TheGrandWazoo]

I guess Guildford hasn't always been quite so isolated, with there having been depots in Horsell until 2001/2 (6.5 miles), Warnham until October 2009 (22 miles), and Cranleigh until September 2012 (8 miles).

When Arriva was first formed, the former London & Country/Guildford & West Surrey business had depots at Guildford, Merstham, Crawley, Warnham, and Cranleigh. It's only because of those closures, of which Crawley and Merstham were the most sizeable, that Guildford became isolated.

The dismantling of the Shires into and shepherding bits into Southern Counties and Midlands is absolute folly. How you can manage a business effectively of that size over that area.....you can't.

 

[Surreyman]

I don't think it's 'isolation' from the rest of Arriva Southern has anything to do with its closure.
It is a long series of reasons, which have been ongoing for many years/decades:
Historically Guildford was always a 'Boundary town' split between L.T/Aldershot & District & latterly London Country/Alder Valley, with Safeguard running some of the town routes.
The area has very high car ownership, increasing traffic congestion, a high cost wage/housing area, competition from among others, Stagecoach, culminating in the loss of the University routes, the continuing need for Surrey County Council support (all of their commercial routes Evening and Sunday operations are supported/tendered) and the ongoing loss of many of those tenders to the likes of Falcon/Whitebus/Stagecoach.
Stagecoach of course opened their own local depot in Peasmarsh in around 2015.
Basic business economics, not enough gross profit and increasing costs. The future sale of the depot for housing development close to the town ctr and Rail stn was probably a factor.
When Leas Road closes its doors, it will join all the following ex L.C depots in Surrey - Staines, Addlestone, Leatherhead, Dorking, Reigate, Godstone, Chelsham. All (except Reigate) now demolished.
Of all the former London Country Depots, I think only Northfleet & Harlow are still in use as Bus Depots.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I don't think it's 'isolation' from the rest of Arriva Southern has anything to do with its closure.
It is a long series of reasons, which have been ongoing for many years/decades:
Historically Guildford was always a 'Boundary town' split between L.T/Aldershot & District & latterly London Country/Alder Valley, with Safeguard running some of the town routes.
The area has very high car ownership, increasing traffic congestion, a high cost wage/housing area, competition from among others, Stagecoach, culminating in the loss of the University routes, the continuing need for Surrey C.C support (all of their commercial routes Evening and Sunday operations are supported/tendered) and the ongoing loss of many of those tenders to the likes of Falcon/Whitebus/Stagecoach.
Stagecoach of course opened their own local depot in Peasmarsh in around 2015.
Basic business economics, not enough gross profit and increasing costs. The future sale of the depot for housing development close to the town ctr and Rail stn was probably a factor.
When Leas Road closes its doors, it will join all the following ex L.C depots in Surrey - Staines, Addlestone, Leatherhead, Dorking, Reigate, Godstone, Chelsham. All (except Reigate) now demolished.
Of all the former London Country Depots, I think only Northfleet & Harlow are still in use as Bus Depots.

The reasons are myriad.

First of all, some of the issues that affect Guildford are apparent across the Arriva business. Insufficient investment, no clear objective of what to do, hamstrung by the travails of DB and its indecision about what it wants to do with Arriva and paying down its debt pile. However, some of the issues have predated DB and when you begin to strip away the local management, you have a business that doesn't pay enough attention to the quality and execution of its business. That is part of the issue in Guildford's increasing isolation - an outpost with little support as the rest of the business has disappeared.

Yes, Surrey is affluent and has high car ownership and congestion but that hasn't stopped other businesses from getting in there and developing their business at Arriva's expense. Crawley is a key comparison - a business that Arriva couldn't make pay but that Go Ahead were able to take on and transform. Instead, Arriva has continued to cede ground and the loss of the Uni work in Guildford was the final straw really; the competitive acts being nothing more than death throes really.

The primary issue has been the financial returns that have been expected, in much the same way as First went, in wanting unrealistic returns with minimal investment. This has been a long time coming; the curious thing is that people were banging on about First for years after they had actually begun to change under Fearnley whilst Arriva's decline has passed largely uncommented - see the respective number of posts on the Arriva vs the First threads!

ps Swanley still exists as a bus depot! Slough too albeit only under LCBS ownership.

 

[M803UYA]

I don't think it's 'isolation' from the rest of Arriva Southern has anything to do with its closure.
It is a long series of reasons, which have been ongoing for many years/decades:
Historically Guildford was always a 'Boundary town' split between L.T/Aldershot & District & latterly London Country/Alder Valley, with Safeguard running some of the town routes.
The area has very high car ownership, increasing traffic congestion, a high cost wage/housing area, competition from among others, Stagecoach, culminating in the loss of the University routes, the continuing need for Surrey C.C support (all of their commercial routes Evening and Sunday operations are supported/tendered) and the ongoing loss of many of those tenders to the likes of Falcon/Whitebus/Stagecoach.
Stagecoach of course opened their own local depot in Peasmarsh in around 2015.
Basic business economics, not enough gross profit and increasing costs. The future sale of the depot for housing development close to the town ctr and Rail stn was probably a factor.
When Leas Road closes its doors, it will join all the following ex L.C depots in Surrey - Staines, Addlestone, Leatherhead, Dorking, Reigate, Godstone, Chelsham. All (except Reigate) now demolished.
Of all the former London Country Depots, I think only Northfleet & Harlow are still in use as Bus Depots.

The closure is a symptom of Arriva's continual hacking away at their bus depot networks. Routes operate on a traffic light coloured route costing system as I'm sure I mentioned elsewhere before. The problem with withdrawing routes, which are loss making, is that the depot remains there, with all it's overhead costs which remain similar. Things such as rent & rates etc etc. So, whilst you may have a loss making route in your depot, sometimes it is better you operate it than let a competitor come along, operate that and then see them come sniffing around your good routes. Suffice to say such thoughts attracted odd facial expressions in Maidstone head office.
Eventually you hack so much away that the whole depot becomes loss making, even if there are some decent routes in the depot, they're not making enough to cover the overhead costs.

The local independent operators won't have Arriva's costs when it comes to operating bus services, and I'm pretty sure Safequard will elect to do some of the commercial work themselves, even only to stop someone else taking them on. They have a loyal following as evidenced by the spat on Guildford local services where not only did they stand their ground they expanded onto the route they didn't operate!
Whilst an unusual position, I've never understood why shoulder services end up with local authority support when the operator runs frequently on a commercial basis during the daytimes, even extending to having competition on those same services. There is a competitive advantage in operating a complete service in season ticket use being higher than would be the case. Not to mention you then prevent competitors coming along and getting a foothold by providing an offpeak service, seeing how busy it might be, then migrating onto other things.

I would say these attitudes within Arriva are longstanding -indeed I read John Cash's June 1997 Buses article about his time working for Drawlane running part of the Crosville operations and suddenly managed to relate to the attitudes of the higher ups. The unrealistic expectations on financial return, the continual axe wielding, the stop start vehicle investment programmes, continual reorganisation of operating companies.

All result in the Arriva operations we see today.

 

[317 forever]

Although still a drop in the ocean, Arriva are about to purchase a few new vehicles. They have 10 StreetDecks on order for Liverpool Green Lane, 10 Streetlites for Southport and 14 Volvo B8RLEs for Luton. Admittedly these are the only ones I know about.

 

[capitalconnect]

The closure is a symptom of Arriva's continual hacking away at their bus depot networks. Routes operate on a traffic light coloured route costing system as I'm sure I mentioned elsewhere before. The problem with withdrawing routes, which are loss making, is that the depot remains there, with all it's overhead costs which remain similar. Things such as rent & rates etc etc. So, whilst you may have a loss making route in your depot, sometimes it is better you operate it than let a competitor come along, operate that and then see them come sniffing around your good routes. Suffice to say such thoughts attracted odd facial expressions in Maidstone head office.
Eventually you hack so much away that the whole depot becomes loss making, even if there are some decent routes in the depot, they're not making enough to cover the overhead costs.

The local independent operators won't have Arriva's costs when it comes to operating bus services, and I'm pretty sure Safequard will elect to do some of the commercial work themselves, even only to stop someone else taking them on. They have a loyal following as evidenced by the spat on Guildford local services where not only did they stand their ground they expanded onto the route they didn't operate!
Whilst an unusual position, I've never understood why shoulder services end up with local authority support when the operator runs frequently on a commercial basis during the daytimes, even extending to having competition on those same services. There is a competitive advantage in operating a complete service in season ticket use being higher than would be the case. Not to mention you then prevent competitors coming along and getting a foothold by providing an offpeak service, seeing how busy it might be, then migrating onto other things.

I would say these attitudes within Arriva are longstanding -indeed I read John Cash's June 1997 Buses article about his time working for Drawlane running part of the Crosville operations and suddenly managed to relate to the attitudes of the higher ups. The unrealistic expectations on financial return, the continual axe wielding, the stop start vehicle investment programmes, continual reorganisation of operating companies.

All result in the Arriva operations we see today.

Both their Surrey and Sussex operations have massively declined over the past. They used to run a lot in Sussex too. In the 2000s they ran the 29 (Brighton to Tunbridge Wells) and 89 (Haywards Heath to Horsham) and a few other services. Once they shut their Guildford operations i think the 286 will be the only remaining route in Sussex still running.

I wonder what depots they will shut next. I was talking to an Arriva driver who said he reckons Tunbridge Wells will be the next to close. It would not surprise me as their operations in that area have also reduced a lot in the past years. It will be interesting to see.

 

[gka472l]

Although still a drop in the ocean, Arriva are about to purchase a few new vehicles. They have 10 StreetDecks on order for Liverpool Green Lane, 10 Streetlites for Southport and 14 Volvo B8RLEs for Luton. Admittedly these are the only ones I know about.

It's 24 Streetdecks for Green Lane in Liverpool.

HTH

 

[Flange Squeal]

I wonder what depots they will shut next. I was talking to an Arriva driver who said he reckons Tunbridge Wells will be the next to close. It would not surprise me as their operations in that area have also reduced a lot in the past years. It will be interesting to see.

After the St Johns Road depot in Tunbridge Wells was sold in 2016, they leased it back until moving into a new facility on Kingstanding Way in I think 2017/2018. Between January and (at least) April of this year, that new site was being advertised for sale, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility I suppose!

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

The closure is a symptom of Arriva's continual hacking away at their bus depot networks. Routes operate on a traffic light coloured route costing system as I'm sure I mentioned elsewhere before. The problem with withdrawing routes, which are loss making, is that the depot remains there, with all it's overhead costs which remain similar. Things such as rent & rates etc etc. So, whilst you may have a loss making route in your depot, sometimes it is better you operate it than let a competitor come along, operate that and then see them come sniffing around your good routes. Suffice to say such thoughts attracted odd facial expressions in Maidstone head office.
Eventually you hack so much away that the whole depot becomes loss making, even if there are some decent routes in the depot, they're not making enough to cover the overhead costs.

The local independent operators won't have Arriva's costs when it comes to operating bus services, and I'm pretty sure Safequard will elect to do some of the commercial work themselves, even only to stop someone else taking them on. They have a loyal following as evidenced by the spat on Guildford local services where not only did they stand their ground they expanded onto the route they didn't operate!
Whilst an unusual position, I've never understood why shoulder services end up with local authority support when the operator runs frequently on a commercial basis during the daytimes, even extending to having competition on those same services. There is a competitive advantage in operating a complete service in season ticket use being higher than would be the case. Not to mention you then prevent competitors coming along and getting a foothold by providing an offpeak service, seeing how busy it might be, then migrating onto other things.

I would say these attitudes within Arriva are longstanding -indeed I read John Cash's June 1997 Buses article about his time working for Drawlane running part of the Crosville operations and suddenly managed to relate to the attitudes of the higher ups. The unrealistic expectations on financial return, the continual axe wielding, the stop start vehicle investment programmes, continual reorganisation of operating companies.

All result in the Arriva operations we see today.

I agree with much of what you say. The issue is similar to that which afflicted First in that you can trim routes etc but when the burden of fixed costs fall onto the remainder, it reaches a crisis point where you then cut management and admin so that those margins are maintained and reliability is affected and/or services simply cannot sustain that level of overhead.

I recall the JT Cash article well and how it shone a light on Drawlane and its cock-eyed accounting practices (though that was the least of its worries). I don't know if it is the Drawlane/BB culture of the past as, with the exception of North East (and there's a reason for that), Arriva seemed to have a fairly balanced fleet replacement programme through the 2000s and up to the PSVAR changes. However, since 2015, the debt mountain of DB has got worse (see https://www.statista.com/statistics/936119/deutsche-bahn-net-financial-debts-germany/) and that is limiting capex. Add to that a business in DB that doesn't know what it's doing next with Arriva - first it was a possible part listing, then they were in talks to sell it outright, then a full IPO or possibly broken up...

You have a business that has stopped being managed locally, and listening to those managers left. The website debacle was illustrative of that and managers were not sufficiently involved and were told to lump it when they saw the atrocity they'd been left with.

This is all very reminiscent of First as while the source of the problem is different, it is being manifested in many similar ways. This has a way to run yet.

 

[A0]

The dismantling of the Shires into and shepherding bits into Southern Counties and Midlands is absolute folly. How you can manage a business effectively of that size over that area.....you can't.

But is it ?

How much different is putting bits of The Shires into Southern Counties different to the old London Country operation which was headquartered at Reigate but covered Harlow, Grays, Stevenage etc ?

What you've ended up with is Southern Counties effectively taking the old London Country area (plus a couple of other bits e.g. Southend) whereas Midlands now has the old United Counties area (Luton, Aylesbury and MK) along with High Wycombe - which was an oddity in NBC days as it was a bit London Country and a bit Alder Valley.

I wonder if part of that move was cost driven - salaries in the Southern Counties area are likely to be higher than the Midlands area - as indeed was the case in NBC days between United Counties and London Country. Having Aylesbury, Luton and MK in Southern Counties would have meant they were higher cost than Midlands.

 

[MotCO]

There was a critique of Arriva in Buses magazine a couple of months ago, and a short letter in response in the next edition, which tried to rebut the problems. There is a full response expected in the November edition - I wonder what it will say? Head in the sand, or acknowledgement of the problems with an action plan?

 

[A0]

There was a critique of Arriva in Buses magazine a couple of months ago, and a short letter in response in the next edition, which tried to rebut the problems. There is a full response expected in the November edition - I wonder what it will say? Head in the sand, or acknowledgement of the problems with an action plan?

First thing's first - you have to agree what the actual "problems" are. The view of enthusiasts is not going to be the same as that of a commercial operator, nor the remedies for that matter. The former have the luxury of being armchair critics who've often not run anything more than a bath, the latter have various stakeholders to consider.

I suspect when whatever response is published it will be derided around here - but for the simple reason that it's not answering the questions the enthusiasts want answered in the way they want it answered.

 

[MotCO]

First thing's first - you have to agree what the actual "problems" are. The view of enthusiasts is not going to be the same as that of a commercial operator, nor the remedies for that matter. The former have the luxury of being armchair critics who've often not run anything more than a bath, the latter have various stakeholders to consider.

I'm not sure that's fair. I agree that Arriva have to accept that all is not well, and given the short letter response in Buses, I don't know if they have grasped this. I don't like seeing companies decline - I would like to see Arriva turned round and be successful again, and provide a decent service to its passengers. Worn out buses and an awful app do not fit the bill - how will this be changed for the better?

I suspect when whatever response is published it will be derided around here - but for the simple reason that it's not answering the questions the enthusiasts want answered in the way they want it answered.

I accept that the bottomline is probably the most important bit for bus companies - but providing a poor service will not improve the bottomline, so I'll be interested to see how they propose turning it round.

 

[A0]

I'm not sure that's fair. I agree that Arriva have to accept that all is not well, and given the short letter response in Buses, I don't know if they have grasped this. I don't like seeing companies decline - I would like to see Arriva turned round and be successful again, and provide a decent service to its passengers. Worn out buses and an awful app do not fit the bill - how will this be changed for the better?



I accept that the bottomline is probably the most important bit for bus companies - but providing a poor service will not improve the bottomline, so I'll be interested to see how they propose turning it round.

See the bit in bold - you're proving my point.

There is an enthusiasts view that there are problems and there may be a company view that there are problems, however they often don't agree on what the problems are and as a result the solutions usually don't align either.

Arriva's app is a moot point - one person's perfect usability is another's nightmare. And again, enthusiasts get frustrated, usually because they are trying to use the websites / apps for things which an average member of public doesn't. Where the average member of public will be looking to get from A to B, the enthusiasts complain about the apps when they're trying to plan a day out covering as many buses as possible with all sorts of byzantine routes. Apps like Arriva's are designed for the former, not the latter.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

First thing's first - you have to agree what the actual "problems" are. The view of enthusiasts is not going to be the same as that of a commercial operator, nor the remedies for that matter. The former have the luxury of being armchair critics who've often not run anything more than a bath, the latter have various stakeholders to consider.

I suspect when whatever response is published it will be derided around here - but for the simple reason that it's not answering the questions the enthusiasts want answered in the way they want it answered.

Not entirely certain that that's the case.

There are plenty of individuals, publicly and privately, who have criticised Arriva and how they have managed the business over recent years. There are some very definite themes that come up time and again, and more tellingly, you have firms that have once simply waited for Arriva to withdraw are now actively nibbling away at the margins.

Yes, there will be the enthusiast types who yearn for the simple days of pre-Arriva or believe that there's a never-ending source of capex. However, it's been evident for a few years that things were getting worse. Withdrawing from Aberystwyth and low margin stuff like that makes sense. However, the decline of the business in recent years is really quite telling.

 

[A0]

Not entirely certain that that's the case.

There are plenty of individuals, publicly and privately, who have criticised Arriva and how they have managed the business over recent years. There are some very definite themes that come up time and again, and more tellingly, you have firms that have once simply waited for Arriva to withdraw are now actively nibbling away at the margins.

Yes, there will be the enthusiast types who yearn for the simple days of pre-Arriva or believe that there's a never-ending source of capex. However, it's been evident for a few years that things were getting worse. Withdrawing from Aberystwyth and low margin stuff like that makes sense. However, the decline of the business in recent years is really quite telling.

I'll agree to disagree with you - but the reality is the operator's first and foremost concern is making a profit and return to the shareholders. Most enthusiasts argue it's providing a service and having a certain selection of vehicles.

Some of Arriva's problems are no doubt homegrown, but a number of them are that they took on historically weak operations - see London Country for example - and have continued to be saddled with the high cost, lowish return those operations give.

Looking at the Guildford operations - as it's part of the current discussion - yes, Stagecoach will probably cover some of it, but they probably won't set up a Guildford operation to do it, instead they'll operate in from their current operating area which is not dissimilar to the NBC days when Alder Valley ran into Guildford. It's the same approach Stagecoach are using in Kent.

Let's say for a second Arriva announced they were pulling out of Harlow, Stevenage or Hemel - what do you think will happen then ? We already know the other large groups weren't interested in Stevenage when Sovereign was sold to Arriva - the competition authorities report said as much and both Harlow and Hemel are not dissimilar in terms of demographic, operation etc.

 

[MotCO]

There is an enthusiasts view that there are problems and there may be a company view that there are problems, however they often don't agree on what the problems are and as a result the solutions usually don't align either.

Whilst I am an enthusiast, my interest lies more in the running of the companies and their services rather than rivet-counting. I don't want to see Arriva fail - quite the reverse - but they are a shadow of what they once were.

Some of Arriva's problems are no doubt homegrown, but a number of them are that they took on historically weak operations - see London Country for example - and have continued to be saddled with the high cost, lowish return those operations give.

Arriva disposed of their Crawley operations, and Metrobus seem to have made a success of it. Arriva have effectively pulled out of Sevenoaks and Go-Coach seem to be doing alright there. Is there a recurring theme?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I'll agree to disagree with you - but the reality is the operator's first and foremost concern is making a profit and return to the shareholders.

You won't find me disagreeing with that and I've not said otherwise. There is always a requirement to make returns - Stagecoach has historically done that and so do Go Ahead. You can have the odd break in investment, treat the business as a cash cow but remember, if you don't feed the cow, the yield will drop and the cow will eventually sicken and die.

In terms of Guildford, it has been apparent for some time that Arriva has been looking for a way out with rumours in the industry for a while. However, there's no one who needs to go in and make an offer - they just have to wait for Arriva to exit. Arriva are choosing to leave the pain of ongoing losses and whilst the realisation of the depot site will bring in some cash, they have to face into a load of one offs and write downs too. Incidentally, the high cost base etc was one of the reasons cited for the disposal of Crawley depot. Apparently, a flat spot where you can't make money and the cost base was artificially high from a combo of LT/LCBS history, and the upward pressure on wage rates from Gatwick. Yet Go Ahead went in and, with the same set of drivers and fitters, have transformed the business.

I'm originally from the North East, and the pattern is evident there. Where Arriva were once dominant, they have retreated to three core areas. Yes, you can leave North Northumberland or the Yorkshire Dales and the thin pickings there. Arriva has walked away so that in Co Durham, their network is almost skeletal. Go Ahead are now chipping away in areas where they should never be tolerated on Arriva's core routes. You can see the same in Kent - no one is seriously trying to argue that Maidstone and District was a weak firm when under independent and BB ownership. They now have Stagecoach's tanks on the lawn in Maidstone with Arriva impotent to respond; those 2004 B7TLs that worked from Sheerness may have been fully depreciated and so the service hits the hurdle rates but it's little wonder Stagecoach have moved in over the Sittingbourne route.

You mention Stagecoach's Surrey strategy and how it's a restoration of Alder Valley days. That's to underplay things. In recent times, their depot was at Hindhead and when that was closed, they had an outstation in Haslemere. That they developed a depot in Peasmarsh, on the outskirts of Guildford, is really part of a strategy that has played out now with Arriva shutting up.

This isn't about enthusiasts creaming themselves about liveries or websites; the website issue extended far beyond gricers undertaking convoluted trips across swathes of the country. Fundamentally, you had timetables you couldn't read, and senior managers who had barely been consulted.

 

[A0]

Arriva disposed of their Crawley operations, and Metrobus seem to have made a success of it. Arriva have effectively pulled out of Sevenoaks and Go-Coach seem to be doing alright there. Is there a recurring theme?

And as I pointed out, Stagecoach's approach *is not* to then go and set up in those weak areas, instead they serve them from their neighbouring operation often in a way that in NBC days neighbouring companies entered a town where there was a main operator. Go-coach are an independent and independents have traditionally had lower overheads than the large groups, not least because they haven't inherited staff via TUPE who were on higher salaries with the relevant benefits.

 

[Andyh82]

From what I can tell, the decline in the Yorkshire business in recent years, which is probably one of the most profitable is due to a range of reasons as follows:

- The new livery which immediately made all local initiative liveries and brands such as MAX/Grand Yorkshire Connections and Frequenta defunct
- Management changes where the MD responsible for the local brands left the business
- Pause in investment generally
- The collapse of Wrightbus meaning a new fleet was delayed and then semi-cancelled
- Covid effecting everything
- Having to deal with clean air zones so having to move buses around the country to cobble together a fleet

Which has resulted in every route from the flagship 110 downwards being operated by a random selection of buses in numerous liveries often not branded for the right route

 

[capitalconnect]

After the St Johns Road depot in Tunbridge Wells was sold in 2016, they leased it back until moving into a new facility on Kingstanding Way in I think 2017/2018. Between January and (at least) April of this year, that new site was being advertised for sale, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility I suppose!

Thinking about it Tunbridge Wells would be a very easy depot to get rid of. The 6/6A/6X/7 could all be run from Maidstone depot (some or all journeys might already be run from there) while i am sure another local operator (Autocar or Go Coach or Hams Travel or Nu Venture) would run the 202/211/218/219/277/281/401/402 services as they already run a lot of services nearby.

Interestingly the same driver i was talking to (who said he reckons Tunbridge Wells would be the next to close) said he was hoping to get transferred to one of the Kent depots once Guildford shuts. So i wonder if many other Arriva drivers at Guildford will choose to transfer over to another depot. I suppose it depends on where they live. It would be a pain commuting from Guildford but if they live somewhere like Redhill it would not be too bad.

 

[A0]

From what I can tell, the decline in the Yorkshire business in recent years, which is probably one of the most profitable is due to a range of reasons as follows:

- The new livery which immediately made all local initiative liveries and brands such as MAX/Grand Yorkshire Connections and Frequenta defunct
- Management changes where the MD responsible for the local brands left the business
- Pause in investment generally
- The collapse of Wrightbus meaning a new fleet was delayed and then semi-cancelled
- Covid effecting everything
- Having to deal with clean air zones so having to move buses around the country to cobble together a fleet

Which has resulted in every route from the flagship 110 downwards being operated by a random selection of buses in numerous liveries often not branded for the right route

In terms of your list:

Covid will have had a massive impact in costs and lost revenue.

Dealing with 'clean air' zones will have had an impact because as you say, fleet reallocations have been needed, particularly where non-compliant mid-life vehicles need to be replaced with compliant vehicles.

The collapse of Wrightbus probably wasn't an impact unless Arriva lost money due to payments for orders - but I would expect funds for orders like that to be held in ESCROW so as to protect the customer should there be a supplier problem. The only other cost would be the ongoing maintenance of old vehicles which were due to be replaced, but that is probably quite low and as assets such vehicles have almost certainly been 'written off' from a financial perspective.

Pause in investment - probably neutral - investment tends to be driven by revenue, not the other way around.

Management changes and livery changes - inconsequential.

 

[duncombec]

The dismantling of the Shires into and shepherding bits into Southern Counties and Midlands is absolute folly. How you can manage a business effectively of that size over that area.....you can't.

It is quite noticeable that as Arriva has shied away from local management and more in favour of "strategic reasons that the quality of the operation has declined markedly. Local knowledge doesn't seem to be valued any more - they struggle to even get the names of roads correct when they bother to produce diversion notices.

The closure is a symptom of Arriva's continual hacking away at their bus depot networks. Routes operate on a traffic light coloured route costing system as I'm sure I mentioned elsewhere before. The problem with withdrawing routes, which are loss making, is that the depot remains there, with all it's overhead costs which remain similar. Things such as rent & rates etc etc. So, whilst you may have a loss making route in your depot, sometimes it is better you operate it than let a competitor come along, operate that and then see them come sniffing around your good routes. Suffice to say such thoughts attracted odd facial expressions in Maidstone head office.
Eventually you hack so much away that the whole depot becomes loss making, even if there are some decent routes in the depot, they're not making enough to cover the overhead costs.

Perhaps the commonest of complaints, or the more frequent of requests, among "normal people" in Sheppey was the lack of an evening service. There was no point getting the bus to work at Tesco if the store closes at 7pm but the last bus bus across the island is 6.45! The trimming also encourages competitive moves (see Stagecoach 3X versus Arriva 333).

You have a business that has stopped being managed locally, and listening to those managers left. The website debacle was illustrative of that and managers were not sufficiently involved and were told to lump it when they saw the atrocity they'd been left with.

This is all very reminiscent of First as while the source of the problem is different, it is being manifested in many similar ways. This has a way to run yet.

I'm almost certain any recent departure from whatever level would agree with you. The fact there are drivers on a local passenger group on Facebook saying pretty much the same thing should also be key.

First thing's first - you have to agree what the actual "problems" are. The view of enthusiasts is not going to be the same as that of a commercial operator, nor the remedies for that matter. The former have the luxury of being armchair critics who've often not run anything more than a bath, the latter have various stakeholders to consider.

I suspect when whatever response is published it will be derided around here - but for the simple reason that it's not answering the questions the enthusiasts want answered in the way they want it answered.

Whilst there are no doubt some overly critical enthusiasts, there are also a huge (but declining) number of passengers. Whilst they too can be guilty of unreasonable expectations (there were complaints yesterday - a Sunday - for drivers taking buses to a local rally when they can't run services the rest of the week), there are also many passengers who would understand a Hornby-esque "look, we have lots of drivers stuck in the system, we're trying", than copying and pasting the same message inviting people to use a web form whilst keeping the quotation marks in from whatever document they copied it out of.

Arriva's app is a moot point - one person's perfect usability is another's nightmare. And again, enthusiasts get frustrated, usually because they are trying to use the websites / apps for things which an average member of public doesn't. Where the average member of public will be looking to get from A to B, the enthusiasts complain about the apps when they're trying to plan a day out covering as many buses as possible with all sorts of byzantine routes. Apps like Arriva's are designed for the former, not the latter.

I would think the average passenger would appreciate being able to download simple timetable for their local route with all the journeys in order a pretty fundamental part of any operators website. This was not the case for almost every route operated in Kent when it was launched. The 1, 10, 100 order ceased to be acceptable for public use more than a decade ago. What came out in the enthusiast press was what would have been said anywhere else. Even drivers who know of it are starting to use bustimes rather than their own company materials to answer customer queries.

I'll agree to disagree with you - but the reality is the operator's first and foremost concern is making a profit and return to the shareholders. Most enthusiasts argue it's providing a service and having a certain selection of vehicles.

Let me correct that for you: Most enthusiasts passengers argue it's providing a service and having a certain selection of vehicles.

There are some areas stronger than others - see my comments on North East further up thread. But unlike the 6 buses an hour that pass the end of my road, I don't see Tesco or Iceland lorries with large panels in a different colour to the rest of the vehicle. They don't have scrapes and bent panels for months on end. If you complain about a driver's attitude or the service offered (when within their control) you'll get a response from a human.

The example I'm going to use is a recent major road closure: The road closure notice contained incorrectly spelled road names. The finish date was incorrect. One route had a substantially shortened route, yet ran to the normal timetable with upwards of 5 minutes wait time per journey. Another had a substantial increase in route, yet ran to a normal timetable with drivers spending all day chasing their tails and the bus turning up "sometime" if you were lucky. There was no information on any bus stop or at the bus station until 48 hours after the closure started, and in some cases it's still there now 6 weeks after it reopened. The road is due to close again in two weeks, and as yet, not a sausage.
Or another example: one route from Northfleet depot is apparently being withdrawn at the end of the month. The drivers have been told. The drivers are telling passengers. Other passengers are tweeting Arriva. Arriva customer services advise they are not aware of any changes and to check the website regularly. A Guildford customer is being told to contact Surrey County Council (albeit for a council contracted route).

Or this example: https://www.arrivabus.co.uk/latest-news/road-closure-of-london-road-2021

Road Closure of London Road​

From 8th October to 10th October 2021.

London Road is going to be closed from 20:00 on 8th October to 14:00 on 10th October 2021. This affects service 500.​

The service will divert via Lawn Lane, Belswains Lane, Lower Road, Station Road and Home Park Mill Link. The nearest stops to the diversion are Riverside and Home Park Industrial Estate.
Please refer to the map for details of the diversion.

London Road... in which town? Hopefully anyone in Hemel Hempstead (luckily I know that Apsley is a suburb of Hemel Hempstead, as the town centre isn't on the map excerpt) looking at the website could work it out!

This is not enthusiast moaning, this is basic customer service.

 

[A0]

Or this example: https://www.arrivabus.co.uk/latest-news/road-closure-of-london-road-2021

London Road... in which town? Hopefully anyone in Hemel Hempstead (luckily I know that Apsley is a suburb of Hemel Hempstead, as the town centre isn't on the map excerpt) looking at the website could work it out!

This is not enthusiast moaning, this is basic customer service.

Except if you look at that webpage, there's also a map below showing the diversion which clearly states Hemel Hempstead.

 

[duncombec]

Except if you look at that webpage, there's also a map below showing the diversion which clearly states Hemel Hempstead.

Clearly states... yes... in the labels for Cineworld and B&Q!
(unless your map is showing differently to mine)

Edit: Given the headline was "Road Closure of London Road", how on earth would anybody in Hemel Hempstead know to even click on it?

 

[A0]

Clearly states... yes... in the labels for Cineworld and B&Q!
(unless your map is showing differently to mine)

Edit: Given the headline was "Road Closure of London Road", how on earth would anybody in Hemel Hempstead know to even click on it?

You can also see Kings Langley and Abbots Langley marked on there as well, however, to answer your point that is a main road through Kings Langley, it's the old A41, so anyone local will certainly be aware it's closed as it's the main route the buses take between Hemel and Watford.

 

[duncombec]

You can also see Kings Langley and Abbots Langley marked on there as well, however, to answer your point that is a main road through Kings Langley, it's the old A41, so anyone local will certainly be aware it's closed as it's the main route the buses take between Hemel and Watford.

I'm not sure if you are (deliberately?) misunderstanding what I'm getting at. Allowing for the fact I started from the national site, and only checked as far as the location "Herts and Essex", I set my browser to "bus travel in Hemel Hempstead" dropdown: https://www.arrivabus.co.uk/herts-and-essex/bus-travel-in-hemel-hempstead

The first route suggested is "44289", which unsurprisingly leads to a 404 error page. The "latest news" options are headlined:
- Route diversions for East Bridge Colchester
- Road Closure of London Road 2021
- Road Closure of Tring High Street
- St Peters Street Diversion
- Change to Harlow services 9, 10 and...
- Changes to Lea Valley Services from 29th...
- A1000 Welwyn Bypass closure
- Southend Network Review
- Colchester Network Review

So I'll ask again. How would I, as a user who has done by best to narrow down everything to my (theoretical) home town, know, from those headlines, that it was London Road Hemel Hempstead being referred to, and not London Road Hertford, Hitchin, Colchester, Southend, Watford, St Albans, or any other ones that might exist in the area covered by those headlines?

Or do you really think this suggests a website that has been well thought out when a user who narrows down their requested information to Hemel Hempstead is given details of services in Harlow and Southend just in case they were interested? Or, having just checked the opposite, how would I know without clicking and reading the story from the Southend page that Hemel Hempstead was being referred to? Or should I just be expected to trawl through irrelevant pages "just in case"? At least if it was labelled (as seven of the nine options on that page are), I could scroll past!
Having also just checked my local area, not a single one of the nine headlines affects my local area - one of them refers to concessionary passes in a different county!

 

[AB93]

And as I pointed out, Stagecoach's approach *is not* to then go and set up in those weak areas, instead they serve them from their neighbouring operation often in a way that in NBC days neighbouring companies entered a town where there was a main operator.

But they did set up in Guildford, in Arriva's weak area.

Looking at the Guildford operations - as it's part of the current discussion - yes, Stagecoach will probably cover some of it, but they probably won't set up a Guildford operation to do it, instead they'll operate in from their current operating area which is not dissimilar to the NBC days when Alder Valley ran into Guildford. It's the same approach Stagecoach are using in Kent.

As above and as per GW, they already have set up in Guildford.
Winning the Guildford P&R work, opening a depot in Guildford, deliberately taking on clear loss leaders when Arriva gave them up (i.e. the 17) is all pretty aggressive, and doesn't match Kent.
Arguably they would not have been able to deal the killer blow of winning the Uni work without the previous moves.

 

[Flange Squeal]

But they did set up in Guildford, in Arriva's weak area.

As above and as per GW, they already have set up in Guildford.
Winning the Guildford P&R work, opening a depot in Guildford, deliberately taking on clear loss leaders when Arriva gave them up (i.e. the 17) is all pretty aggressive, and doesn't match Kent.
Arguably they would not have been able to deal the killer blow of winning the Uni work without the previous moves.

I think the move to a site in Guildford was also partly in connection with them having to move out of their gravelled yard outstation on the up side of Haslemere railway station, as Network Rail needed the land back for use as storage/parking during the double-decking of Haslemere station car park, meaning the vehicles outstationed for the 59 and their share of the 17/18/19/70/71/72 needed somewhere to go. The Haslemere outstation was closed over the same weekend as the Fleet Buzz site at Crondall (late May 2015), so not everything was going to fit in Aldershot, which even with both Crondall and Haslemere open was already full to bursting with vehicles parking not only in the bus station but also the railway station car park overnight. Crondall wasn't much use operationally by this time due to the savage cuts that had been made to services around Fleet.

So the opening of a second site was very much needed in Surrey at the time, and it ideally needed maintenance facilities rather than just a replacement outstation to ease the strain on Aldershot. Guildford was certainly a logical place to look, even without eyes firmly set on expansion, as Stagecoach already already operated the KITE, 46, 65, 70, 71, 72, 503, 520, 523 and 538 into the town from Aldershot depot and Haslemere outstation. As pointed out, they'd also taken on the Guildford Park & Ride work nearly two years prior to the May 2015 Peasmarsh opening, back in September 2013. The Park and Ride work was only two-thirds Arriva prior to Stagecoach taking it over, with Arriva providing four vehicles and Safeguard providing two. So the motive in choosing Guildford was probably just - if not more - about operational convenience being in a location they already had several routes into, as much as having eyes on Arriva. As you and previous commenters point out though, the sort of site chosen did put them in an ideal position to take on more Guildford area work going forward, as well as being in an ideal place (near Guildford for P&R and on the line of routes 70/71/72 for changeovers/driver positioning) to cover their existing work.

In the three years between Peasmarsh opening in May 2015 and the Uni work being taken on in Summer 2018, Peasmarsh did start up the 715 (I think 3 vehicles) to Kingston in 2016 after Abellio gave up the 515 which was revised, then only really took on minor bits such as the two-vehicle 39A-C/40/81/690 tendered routes in Woking after Abellio lost them in 2017, and taking on the five-vehicle St Peter's School network of routes also Abellio subsequently gave up. Rumour is they had also won the former Abellio 446 Woking to Staines tender at the same time, but White Bus decided to register it commercially and the tender contract withdrawn (unable to confirm that though). It was only the one-vehicle's worth of work on the 17 that they took on that Arriva dropped in those three years, with Buses Exetera taking on the 28 commercially when Arriva pulled that. 2018 was of course their big moment though, when they got the exclusive access to the University of Surrey sites, which were not previously restricted to just one operator. Since then, Peasmarsh has remained fairly static bar the three(?) vehicle 32/479 Sunday tender in September 2018, and the interworked 43/45 Cranleigh area school routes when Buses Excetera went belly up in 2019. So while it has expanded gradually over time, it's not been through outright attacks/war. The longstanding 28 to Woking and 479 to Epsom were both left for Falcon and Arriva respectively to mop up after Excetera's demise in early 2019, but I guess Stagecoach might still have been rather busy bedding in with their Uni work and the electrification of the Park & Rides around that time to be able to take those on.

So while their move into Guildford hasn't been aimed squarely at Arriva, and indeed most of their expansion has been through winning tenders/contracts rather than any kind of initiated war, the Uni work would of course have hit Arriva hard. With Peasmarsh now a very busy yard, it will indeed be interesting to see just how much of Arriva they do mop up. I wouldn't be surprised to see the local independents still do quite well out of Arriva's withdrawal though. I don't doubt that we'll see increased Stagecoach vehicles plying the town come Christmas, but I'm not sure there's the copacity to create a complete sea of them.

(For the record, I realise it wasn't strictly claimed their move to Guildford was solely to take on Arriva - I kind of got into writing a quick post to point out Aldershot was already stretched and the Surrey outstation was also closing at the time, and I kind of got into a bit of a ramble! The info might be of use to some non-locals though... hopefully!)

 

[cnjb8]

Falcon Coaches in talks with Arriva to take on Guildford depot

Falcon Coaches in talks to take on Arriva Guildford business - routeone

Falcon Coaches and Arriva are in 'advanced stage' talks about the Byfleet operator purchasing the group's business in Guildford.

www.route-one.net

Talks between Arriva and Falcon Coaches about a deal for the Byfleet-based independent to take over the Guildford business that is part of the group’s Kent and Surrey operating company are at an advanced stage, the two parties have revealed.

Earlier in October Arriva announced that it planned to close Guildford depot, citing a long-term reduction in passenger numbers. The group currently runs around 45 buses from its base in the town, which is a much-reduced total from previous years.

At that time, Arriva said that it was working with affected staff, their representatives and Surrey County Council to ensure a continuation of services. The current discussions with Falcon Coaches are “ongoing,” the group adds.

Falcon Coaches already runs an hourly daytime service into Guildford from Woking through its Falcon Buses arm, which has a fleet that is around 25-strong. Many of those vehicles are Euro VI. The company recently took delivery of its first double-decker in the form of a new Volvo B5TL with MCV EvoSeti bodywork.