If the routes are mostly commercial, would they be attractive to other operators? Safeguard is obviously established in town, and may want to expand if it is cost effective. Other contenders will be Falcon and Compass, and obviously Stagecoach. Will any routes be dropped requiring Surrey CC to step in?
I'm assuming that the Arriva Guildford operations will not continue to be operated by Arriva but from another depot.
I can't personally see Arriva continuing anything, as the other depots on the Kent & Surrey licence are 60-70 miles away in Tunbridge Wells, Maidstone and Gillingham. I think the nearest provincial Arriva premises would be The Shires' High Wycombe, but even that is best part of 40 miles. If there was a more local relocation, even if only retaining some routes, then I'd assume that would be mentioned to help soften the blow?
In terms of where routes would likely go, that is anyone's guess. The 34/35 and 91 are particularly good performers in terms of passenger numbers, and so I'd reckon might be the most attractive routes. White Bus have expanded massively in the last four years and have a good sized depot in Woking now, so I'd expect them to show an interest, particularly the 91 and 436 right on their doorstep. Falcon have similarly grown substantially since the demise of Abellio Surrey, with constant investment in new vehicles of late, and the 436 through Brooklands, and onto Weybridge, runs handily close to their depot for efficient driver changeovers. The 91 requires 5 vehicles at its peak so is a potentially manageable addition for a smaller operator given its patronage, but the 34/35 at current frequencies are probably closer to 10 vehicles. An off-peak round trip is around 3 hours (wthout layover time), with a combined frequency currently of three per hour, so you're probably looking at around 10+ vehicles for those if that service level was retained. The 436 is less than an hour each way, and easily achieved by two vehicles for an hourly frequency or four vehicles for half-hourly, with decent enough time for layovers and therefore a fairly modest output. Both operators have been prepared to take on commercial routes given up by other operators in the past - White Bus the 441 (2 vehicle PVR), and Falcon the 28 (2 vehicles) and 461 (I think at the time around 5 vehicles PVR).
In terms of the remaining routes, the 18 is only a 24 minute round trip at an hourly frequency, so a prime candidate for potential interworking for the sake of efficiency. It could in theory fit within the 46 minute turnaround of Compass' 32, however I think Dunsfold rosters drivers and vehicles together so that would require a rejig of how they do things. Stagecoach operate several already interworked routes into Guildford, so it could probably be slotted into their patterns (the 17/70/71/72/46/65 all interwork with at least some of eachother at points during the day). Arriva appear to currently interwork it primarily with the 36/37 town circulars. Stagecoach would probably be my bet for that little one, although Safeguard would also be ideally placed.
Geographically, the 53/63 to Ewhurst/Horsham would be a good fit for Compass, as they already operate pretty much everything else (bar Carlone's limited day minibus shoppers) in Cranleigh and the immediate surrounds - 24/25/42/43/45/64/69. It would come at the cost of I'd guess 6-7 vehicles though, without long layovers encompassing driver breaks as per their current Dunsfold modus operandi. That could probably be reduced to around 5ish if they opted for hourly on each route, to give a combined half-hourly Guildford to Cranleigh, rather than the current hourly 63 and uneven headway 2bph on the 53 to give 3bph Guildford to Cranleigh.
36/37 town circulars I'd reckon require maybe 5/6 vehicles for their 20 minute frequencies, with potential efficiency if combined with the 18 Onslow Village circular. I'd love to see Safeguard take these on, but I'm not sure if that might be too big a jump in vehicle numbers for them? They successfully won the Park Barn battle when Arriva barged in, even coming out of the fight with Arriva's Bellfields under their arm. They are a good quality operator with a good reputation in Guildford, so it would almost certainly be beneficial to passengers. And a totally irrelevant point, dropping the 3 to make 6/7 would also be good for anyone who, like me, has a silly OCD thing when it comes to bus numbers - Guildford would have a 1-8, and Safeguard a 3/4/5/6/7
Finally, the 479 had been commercial for a long time under operators including Countryliner, Sunray Travel and Buses Excetera. When Buses Excetera ceased, it was the last route to find a new operator. The current hourly end-to-end with hourly Bookham shorts (to offer a half-hourly frequency Bookham to Epsom) I calculate to require 4 vehicles, so again a potentially manageable addition for even a smaller operator. While it was commercial prior to Arriva taking it on after Excetera's demise in 2019, the current Arriva route registration says it is supported by subsidies. Not sure if this means it is now a full tender, or if there is just a de minimis funding situation? Like the 53/63, the timetable is very much geared towards operation from the Guildford end, however I can't remember if that's just a more recent thing as, while Countryliner/Sunray ran it from Guildford/Woking, the last operator ran it from Merstham (very much beyond the eastern end, but then we know what happened to them...). Metrobus have had modest expansion with local Epsom area Surrey County Council tenders, so they might even be a contender for that (but then so have Falcon thinking about it). Stagecoach currently operate the tendered Sunday service on the 479.
The A is purely competitive, with Safeguard offering a frequent and established link between Guildford and the hospital, so I doubt that will see replacement by anyone.
Stagecoach are the largest 'big' operator in the area so are perhaps best placed in terms of vehicle resource availability for some of these routes, being able to potentially call on other divisions for vehicles, but I'm not sure how much spare space they have at their Peasmarsh premises these days? The yard has looked pretty full when been past outside of main operating hours for a nosey, but then there have also still been staff cars taking up some of that space, so maybe something could be done if that is the case. Arriva currently manage Guildford bus station, so someone may also get the opportunity to keep buses there overnight like I believe Arriva might do currently (or at least they have an authorisation of seven there). There are some (elderly!) Enviros in the current Arriva fleet should they wish to take some of that on, but it's mainly 2006/2012 Citaros and 2010/11 Versas these days.
These are of course just my completely uneducated ramblings. I'd assume if a deal with another group had been agreed as per Cannock/D&G and Yorkshire Tiger/Transdev then this would have been mentioned in the press release? Assuming that's not the case, my bets are on independents for the 91/436, Stagecoach on the 34/35/36/37, Compass on the 53/63, and I can't decide between Stagecoach or Metrobus for the 479. Lets see how very wrong I probably get proven!
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