Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[LowLevel]

Because we are members of society and we don’t just have to consider ourselves but others.

this is the primary difference between the pro and anti restrictions people one group think about how the rules restrict their lives and one group think primarily about how their behaviour affects others in society

I know which group I prefer being a member off

That's lovely but doesn't do much for the young student who chucked himself under a train up the road from me during lockdown one, citing in his suicide note that he couldn't cope with the isolation in his student residence anymore.

Or my colleague who died of cancer last year and spent her last 2 months panicking about leaving the house and not being able to acquire toilet rolls for herself and her young daughter, rather than having some final experiences and saying goodbye to those she loved (that was repeated several times over just amongst my acquaintances).

No warm fuzzy feelings about enjoying things another time and looking after others for now for them.

Get your vaccines, wear a mask if you wish and get on with your life. If you have a heart attack tomorrow putting things off for the greater good will be of absolutely no consolation.

 

[Freightmaster]

I’m assuming you’ve all seen the tread on Southern removing all their services from Victoria due to staff shortages needlessly isolating with mild or no symptoms.

Fixed that for you...

this is what happens when a virus is allowed to run rampant through a population. Staff who provide vital services become unavailable and therefore those services become unavailable

Say what? How on earth do you stop a virus as contagious as Omicron (which is an order of magnitude more transmissive than Delta)
from "running rampant" through the population - are you suggesting that the country needs to go back into full lockdown??






MARK

 

[DerekC]

Or with the low risk of harm from the virus, should we be reducing (or even removing) the isolation period further? Once you feel better, people should be going back to work like you would in previous years before covid?


Based on the latest statistics over the last 7 days (appreciate there are gaps and issues), with 914,723 reporting a positive test (plus many more who get covid go unreported),

• 6,878 patients admited to hospital, although since this data is over a week old, I have assumed 10,000. Thus 0.75% are going to hospital for covid (or have it while undergoing something else)
• 516 died, thus 0.06% dying from covid

If there was a new virus, it would be interesting to see what percentage of people would be acceptable to die of it before making a minor and major impact on their life.

I personally would say that a death rate of 0.5% would make me undertake a few minor changes in my everyday life and major changes for 1%.

Would be interesting to see what others people would accept as rates.

This compares the current infection rates with the current death rates whereas in reality there is about a four week lag between infection and potential death. That's why the death rates over the next 2-3 weeks are going to be so crucial. Like everyone else (I hope) I am gunning for a very low death rate for Omicron, but we aren't quite there yet. I will happily put up with the people in this thread saying "I told you so" when actually they didn't have a clue. It's a small price to pay!!

 

[Howardh]

- are you suggesting that the country needs to go back into full lockdown??

Sobering thought - next March there will be those turning twenty who will have spent all of their adult life under some degree of restrictions, and a high percentage of it under full lockdown. The best days of your life?? Couldn't even have a dance or a studenty snog for endless months! How on earth students of exam age have got a decent education I don't know.

They may still have their lives ahead of them, but have we now set a precident where every new bug means restrictions until a new vaccine is produced?

 

[NorthKent1989]

Wow it really seems that some people on here are stuck in March 2020, we’re literally 48 hours away from 2022, how long do people think we should keep up with this ridiculous behaviour?

@Ian1971 are you sure the pro restrictions crowd are so caring? I think they’re suffering from perpetual hysteria along with smug narcissistic virtue signalling about how so good they are all
The while ignoring the rising mental health cases, the fact that domestic abuse rose under lockdown because spouses were trapped with their abuser? Not one pro restriction support, public, politician or media raised this, it was all about cases cases and cases, where do we draw a line under this? When the NHS is broken up and sold off? Or when poverty and unemployment has skyrocketed?

 

[Bantamzen]

Absolutely. Send all the drivers with positive LFD tests to work. Whack open the windows and doors where able and get services moving.

Yeah, just like wth other respiratory illness at the first sign of covid treat everybody like leper and mess up business. Especially the ones daring not to be ill, suffering symptoms etc..

 

[Bayum]

It isn't helping that we're seeing a lot of people reporting a positive lateral flow, who then turn out to have a negative PCR. And this isn't simply a hypothesis, as I have access to data from my area which is clearly showing this trend (obviously there's always the possibility my place is an outlier - but why should it be?).

Naturally there's two conclusions one can draw from this.

I’d be very interested to see this data, particularly as false positives/negatives are getting rarer as the technology moves on. My own anecdotal evidence is very different - 7/26 of one class, 19/26 in another and 15/26 in the final class. Not one of the positive LFD tests came back with a negative PCR.

 

[yorkie]

This compares the current infection rates with the current death rates whereas in reality there is about a four week lag between infection and potential death. That's why the death rates over the next 2-3 weeks are going to be so crucial. Like everyone else (I hope) I am gunning for a very low death rate for Omicron, but we aren't quite there yet. I will happily put up with the goons in this thread saying "I told you so" when actually they didn't have a clue. It's a small price to pay!!

The gap between exposure, and onset of symptoms and the possibility of severe outcomes is shorter with Omicron.

The UK Government and advisors such as Chris Whitty tried to cast doubt on the experiences of doctors in South Africa, however all the data gathered in the UK so far is consistent with the data from South Africa, and there is absolutely no sign of that changing.

Wow it really seems that some people on here are stuck in March 2020, we’re literally 48 hours away from 2022, how long do people think we should keep up with this ridiculous behaviour?

Those who call for restrictions appear to wish to prolong the epidemic by delaying the onset of endemic equilibrium in the UK.

Their motives are probably wide and varied; for some it may be a fear of normality. For others it may be reputational.

I’d be very interested to see this data, particularly as false positives/negatives are getting rarer as the technology moves on. My own anecdotal evidence is very different - 7/26 of one class, 19/26 in another and 15/26 in the final class. Not one of the positive LFD tests came back with a negative PCR.

I believe @Crossover knows someone who experienced this.

 

[Bayum]

I believe @Crossover knows someone who experienced this.

Great anecdotal evidence of a single person. I’d have thought you of all people would be demanding evidence for these sorts of claims.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Those who call for restrictions appear to wish to prolong the epidemic by delaying the onset of endemic equilibrium in the UK.

Their motives are probably wide and varied; for some it may be a fear of normality. For others it may be reputational.

But most of all their motives are mostly selfish to varying degrees sadly

 

[yorkie]

Great anecdotal evidence of a single person. I’d have thought you of all people would be demanding evidence for these sorts of claims.

I'm not making any such claim. You posted anecdotal evidence and appeared to be asking for more, so I replied purely on that basis.

I suspect the true number of people infected is far higher than is picked up by testing, by the way.

 

[Crossover]

I believe @Crossover knows someone who experienced this.

I do, although questions were raised about cross contamination of two LFT's in this case and we can't be sure as we didn't administer the tests. The same person came back negative on an LFT around 3 days later, whilst their sibling remained positive on LFT (the PCR result took 4 days but also came back positive) around the same time. Both showed barely any symptoms (both aged under 10)

(To also disclaim, I have missed the last 50 or so pages of this discussion)

 

[seagull]

A friend of mine who is a teacher took a Lateral Flow test on 13th December - was positive. Took another one the following day and was also positive. Went for the PCR test (while isolating) and it came back negative, so resumed normal activities (well as normal as can be in these times)

 

[Simon11]

A friend of mine who is a teacher took a Lateral Flow test on 13th December - was positive. Took another one the following day and was also positive. Went for the PCR test (while isolating) and it came back negative, so resumed normal activities (well as normal as can be in these times)

And how many days were they unable to teach due to this?

 

[Bayum]

I'm not making any such claim. You posted anecdotal evidence and appeared to be asking for more, so I replied purely on that basis.

I suspect the true number of people infected is far higher than is picked up by testing, by the way.

I asked them for evidence, actually, in addition to my anecdote.

 

[seagull]

And how many days were they unable to teach due to this?

Truthfully I don't know exactly, but it was several, in any case. Have a feeling they told me their PCR negative result on either the Thursday or Friday, so 4-5 days off.

 

[johnnychips]

A friend of mine who is a teacher took a Lateral Flow test on 13th December - was positive. Took another one the following day and was also positive. Went for the PCR test (while isolating) and it came back negative, so resumed normal activities (well as normal as can be in these times)

I could have been your friend. Exactly the same happened to me and so I missed three days teaching.

 

[Bayum]

And here I’ve been testing negative on my LFDs and teaching full time

 

[43066]

That's lovely but doesn't do much for the young student who chucked himself under a train up the road from me during lockdown one, citing in his suicide note that he couldn't cope with the isolation in his student residence anymore.

Or my colleague who died of cancer last year and spent her last 2 months panicking about leaving the house and not being able to acquire toilet rolls for herself and her young daughter, rather than having some final experiences and saying goodbye to those she loved (that was repeated several times over just amongst my acquaintances).

No warm fuzzy feelings about enjoying things another time and looking after others for now for them.

Get your vaccines, wear a mask if you wish and get on with your life. If you have a heart attack tomorrow putting things off for the greater good will be of absolutely no consolation.

A very sobering post which those clamouring for more restrictions should read carefully. We are actually in a far, far better position than we were this time last year thanks to the vaccines. It’s odd that some people don’t seem to want to accept this.

Absolutely. Send all the drivers with positive LFD tests to work. Whack open the windows and doors where able and get services moving.

Better yet, just stop mass testing and mandatory isolation.

Their motives are probably wide and varied; for some it may be a fear of normality. For others it may be reputational.

Fear of normality does seem to be driving some people. It’s almost like a form of Stockholm syndrome. Thankfully those of us who want to move on with our lives are now in the majority.

 

[Simon11]

Having a quick look, I haven't had much success. What is the current daily cost of Covid measures, testing and impact on taxes/ costs for the government?

For anyone wishing to maintain current levels of restrictions, it would be interesting to see what their reaction if we started billing them weekly for their portion of the costs! Then multiply that out per household!

 

[Yew]

When proof is given, if masks don’t work then why do hospital staff all wear them in surgical situations to prevent them infecting their patients

typically they are trying to stop bacterial infections of open wounds, not trying to prevent the spread of a respiratory virus with high population immunity.

 

[Bantamzen]

Having a quick look, I haven't had much success. What is the current daily cost of Covid measures, testing and impact on taxes/ costs for the government?

For anyone wishing to maintain current levels of restrictions, it would be interesting to see what their reaction if we started billing them weekly for their portion of the costs! Then multiply that out per household!

In terms of cost, who knows exactly? But estimates earlier this year put them from the start somewhere between £300bn - £500bn. To put it into context, the 2019-2020 NHS budget was around £140bn.

There was back in June a FOI request asking how much tests cost the NHS. They refused the individual cost but did reveal that as at 14/06/21 the overall cost of testing was £3.2bn. And that was before unprecedented levels of testing....

 

[bramling]

I’d be very interested to see this data, particularly as false positives/negatives are getting rarer as the technology moves on. My own anecdotal evidence is very different - 7/26 of one class, 19/26 in another and 15/26 in the final class. Not one of the positive LFD tests came back with a negative PCR.

Okay.

12x positive LFT. Of those, 5x positive PCR, 7x negative PCR.

Of possible relevance, as you're talking about classes, I presume this was before Christmas? My sample above is now - i.e. Christmas week.

 

[Bayum]

Okay.

12x positive LFT. Of those, 5x positive PCR, 7x negative PCR.

Of possible relevance, as you're talking about classes, I presume this was before Christmas? My sample above is now - i.e. Christmas week.

Doesn’t really matter when the sample size was taken. Statistics show that false positives with most LFDs are rare - so much so that you should probably look into buying lottery tickets to have gotten seven.

 

[bramling]

Doesn’t really matter when the sample size was taken. Statistics show that false positives with most LFDs are rare - so much so that you should probably look into buying lottery tickets to have gotten seven.

This is exactly why I am minded to think that when the sample size was taken *is* relevant. In simple terms, with it being Christmas week, I'm suspicious as to how many of these alleged positive tests are genuine.

 

[Mintona]

@bramling could you not change your avatar, it’s most confusing

I’m quite bored now. I tested positive with an LFT on Christmas Eve, and subsequently got a PCR an hour later which also came back positive on Christmas Day. I’m fine, I lost my sense of taste for a couple of days but it’s back now. I am still suffering a blocked nose, but nothing that I would’ve even thought to mention pre covid. My company is cancelling trains because of a shortage of staff, yet here I am at home feeling fine but unable to come in to drive them. Seven days and counting, should be free from Monday.

I see the isolation period has been dropped to 5 days in the USA, I wonder if similar will come in here.

 

[brad465]

The latest dashboard update has revealed 332 deaths, much higher than previous days but obviously down to a reporting lag, with the last 7 days still down 10.6% despite this. Hospital admissions though are surging nationally, up nearly a third over the last 7 days, although some of these will be incidental (yesterday the BBC's Nick Triggle reported that this applies to around a third of admissions). Testing is going down at the moment, but how long that lasts for is debatable.

 

[21C101]

No, this is what happens when politicians panic and demand that people with mild or no symptoms isolate for 10 days.

+1

 

[yorkie]

....Hospital admissions though are surging nationally, up nearly a third over the last 7 days, although some of these will be incidental (yesterday the BBC's Nick Triggle reported that this applies to around a third of admissions)....

In a video I linked to in a post earlier today, John Campbell said it's as high as 80%

....My company is cancelling trains because of a shortage of staff, yet here I am at home feeling fine but unable to come in to drive them. Seven days and counting, should be free from Monday.

I see the isolation period has been dropped to 5 days in the USA, I wonder if similar will come in here.

Yes it will reduce further and in due course it has to be dropped entirely. Unfortunately for you, it probably won't reduce before Monday.

 

[Bikeman78]

Get your vaccines, wear a mask if you wish and get on with your life. If you have a heart attack tomorrow putting things off for the greater good will be of absolutely no consolation.

Totally agree. A well known enthusiast passed away from a heart attack at Cardiff Central in May. Wish I'd known that he was in the area. I'd have joined him on his Pacer bash the day before. That was the point at which, for me, any remaining support for restrictions evaporated.