Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[duncanp]

Right this will be fun to see in the coming weeks: CRG chair Mark Harper has issued an ultimatum to Johnson: remove all covid restrictions by the end of this month or face a massive party revolt and the prospect of a leadership challenge later this year:

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I suspect that we won't see all regulations removed in one go at the end of this month.

However Boris Johnson will have to come up with a staged plan to remove all regulations by a certain date (a "roadmap Mk2" if you like) which will be considerably shorter than the roadmap last year. (ie. none of this **** about "wait five weeks in between stages")

I suspect that the final end date for all regulations to be removed will be around the second anniversary of the lockdown and the expiry of the regulations under the Coronavirus Act in March.

And by removed I would hope that the regulations are really removed, and that, for example, it will be illegal for any business or service to deny entry to someone who is not wearing a face covering, so that there will none of this nonsense about face coverings being "recommended and expected", even though they aren't mandatory.

 

[island]

I suspect that we won't see all regulations removed in one go at the end of this month.

All the restrictions except those relating to travel and self-isolating if testing positive (or unvaccinated and a close contact) expire on 26•JNR•22 unless actively extended, which would require a Parliamentary vote. I think there's a non-zero chance they will be let expire.

However Boris Johnson will have to come up with a staged plan to remove all regulations by a certain date (a "roadmap Mk2" if you like) which will be considerably shorter than the roadmap last year. (ie. none of this **** about "wait five weeks in between stages")

I suspect that the final end date for all regulations to be removed will be around the second anniversary of the lockdown and the expiry of the regulations under the Coronavirus Act in March.

I suspect we will still have travel-related regulations after that.

And by removed I would hope that the regulations are really removed, and that, for example, it will be illegal for any business or service to deny entry to someone who is not wearing a face covering, so that there will none of this nonsense about face coverings being "recommended and expected", even though they aren't mandatory.

I'm not too fussed about this; the market will quickly resolve the problem if individual businesses persist in applying silly house rules. Although on the other hand, airlines might need a push.

 

[brad465]

I suspect that we won't see all regulations removed in one go at the end of this month.

However Boris Johnson will have to come up with a staged plan to remove all regulations by a certain date (a "roadmap Mk2" if you like) which will be considerably shorter than the roadmap last year. (ie. none of this **** about "wait five weeks in between stages")

I suspect that the final end date for all regulations to be removed will be around the second anniversary of the lockdown and the expiry of the regulations under the Coronavirus Act in March.

And by removed I would hope that the regulations are really removed, and that, for example, it will be illegal for any business or service to deny entry to someone who is not wearing a face covering, so that there will none of this nonsense about face coverings being "recommended and expected", even though they aren't mandatory.

Yes I can see this happening - the said roadmap would also be shorter not just because of demands to make it faster, but there is far less to unlock this time. I think it would also be politically advantageous for Johnson to get rid of all restrictions by the end of March, as he can then claim victory over covid as we go into the local elections.

 

[duncanp]

All the restrictions except those relating to travel and self-isolating if testing positive (or unvaccinated and a close contact) expire on 26•JNR•22 unless actively extended, which would require a Parliamentary vote. I think there's a non-zero chance they will be let expire.

I suspect we will still have travel-related regulations after that.

I'm not too fussed about this; the market will quickly resolve the problem if individual businesses persist in applying silly house rules. Although on the other hand, airlines might need a push.

I agree we will have travel related regulations for some time to come, because we can't control what other countries require.

But we can control what happens for travellers inbound to the UK, and I would hope that the requirement for a Day 2 Lateral Flow test is abolished soon, and after that the utterly useless Passenger Locator Form.

People could simply be advised to take a test if they feel unwell after returning from abroad.

I think Boris Johnson will have to come up with a very good reason for any of the regulations to be extended after 26th January, and his MPs are not going to accept the latest bedwetting nonsense from SAGE as a sufficient reason.

 

[yorkie]

In what way did restrictions not work? Where's your evidence for these claims?

Drakeford and Sturgeon like to tell us how reckless England is being by not having as many restrictions as them; if their restrictions are working, why are their case rates higher than England's?

And then there are countries like France, also with harsh restrictions, yet cases are very high.

 

[bramling]

Drakeford and Sturgeon like to tell us how reckless England is being by not having as many restrictions as them; if their restrictions are working, why are their case rates higher than England's?

And then there are countries like France, also with harsh restrictions, yet cases are very high.

In due course, I would like to see the question of the disfavourable stats for Scotland and Wales subject to some level of scrutiny, certainly something for the inquiry to look at.

There are serious questions to ask about the viability and desirability of the devolved administrations having the power to manage a pandemic in their own ways, and heaven forbid if we ever find ourselves in a future pandemic this is something we could do without happening again.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm not sure having the devolved Nations taking different actions has been that much of an issue. Certainly it gives an opportunity to look at the results of different measures on similar populations. Probably there needs to be a UK wide position on international border controls, but internally not so much.

 

[21C101]

Down again on same day last week for the fourth day running.

141,472 today

151,663 last Sunday.

Down 7%

 

[NorthKent1989]

In what way did restrictions not work? Where's your evidence for these claims?

Because despite Scotland and Wales going with more restrictions they still
had higher cases than that of England which was pretty much back to pre 2020 levels of normality from July to November.

 

[Bantamzen]

I agree we will have travel related regulations for some time to come, because we can't control what other countries require.

But we can control what happens for travellers inbound to the UK, and I would hope that the requirement for a Day 2 Lateral Flow test is abolished soon, and after that the utterly useless Passenger Locator Form.

People could simply be advised to take a test if they feel unwell after returning from abroad.

I think Boris Johnson will have to come up with a very good reason for any of the regulations to be extended after 26th January, and his MPs are not going to accept the latest bedwetting nonsense from SAGE as a sufficient reason.

I think as winter turns to spring, and then into summer economic pressures on some countries to restart the holiday industry will see their restrictions fall away in many countries, just as they did last year. And here in England at least there is now real pressure growing to bring to an end the expensive, and largely ineffective measures. The ruling party are starting to make some very unhappy noises, there are small signs that the People's Democratic Republic, erm Labour are starting to shift away, even Auntie Beeb has gone from screaming "Grannie Killers" to showing signs that they are moving back to a more sensible position.

Save some demonic, extinction event type variant, I think we will slowly step away from the madness in the coming weeks and months.

 

[BRX]

Yeah restrictions really work, don't they?

If only England had as many restrictions as Scotland and Wales, eh?

Remind me, what are the current 7 day case rates?

Also how do you explain high cases in restricted places like France?

You really are clutching at straws and providing no evidence for your claims.

The sooner we reach endemic equilibrium, the better...

What claims do you think I've made?

 

[Bikeman78]

I think as winter turns to spring, and then into summer economic pressures on some countries to restart the holiday industry will see their restrictions fall away in many countries, just as they did last year. And here in England at least there is now real pressure growing to bring to an end the expensive, and largely ineffective measures. The ruling party are starting to make some very unhappy noises, there are small signs that the People's Democratic Republic, erm Labour are starting to shift away, even Auntie Beeb has gone from screaming "Grannie Killers" to showing signs that they are moving back to a more sensible position.

Save some demonic, extinction event type variant, I think we will slowly step away from the madness in the coming weeks and months.

Looking at history, this is what happened in previous pandemics over the last century. The majority of people stopped being scared and cracked on with life. Different people will adjust at different rates, but ultimately that's the only practical way forward.

 

[yorksrob]

Looking at history, this is what happened in previous pandemics over the last century. The majority of people stopped being scared and cracked on with life. Different people will adjust at different rates, but ultimately that's the only practical way forward.

Very true. I remember reading at the start of all of this various articles and opinion pieces on how and when the pandemic might end.

One such article pointed out that historically, pandemics tended to end when the population decided they were over.

 

[yorkie]

What claims do you think I've made?

You disagreed with my post; here it is again:

I am reasonably confident London has peaked but elsewhere in England I am not so sure; the rest of the country is a fair bit behind London and people going back to work, school etc could see a further rise.

Scotland, Wales and NI now see infection rates considerably greater than England, demonstrating how pointless their additional restrictions are.

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Restrictions are futile and are also misplaced; the current pressure is no worse (in fact arguably less worse) than in previous years, such as:

Is this NHS crisis really worse than ones before?

Winter is always the most difficult time of year. How alarming are the current problems?

www.bbc.co.uk

People were not required to wear flimsy masks then, and indeed experts gave good reasons not to. There was no expectation anyone should show a flu vaccine passport to gain entry to any venue. There was no requirement or guidance to work from home. There was no army of enraged people on Twitter with cold heart logos in their usernames demanding lockdowns.

We need to get away from the current mindset that too many people have.

Rather than beat about the bush, can you clarify exactly what you are disagreeing with? I will then be happy to reply accordingly.

Given the current case rates, how can it be that harsh restrictions in NI, Wales and Scotland are kee

Cases by area (last 7 days)

Northern Ireland	55,066	2,905.1
Wales	75,452	2,380.5
Scotland	110,763	2,026.4
England	1,088,264	1,924.4

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

"The one country that stands up as not taking action to protect its population is England,"
Wales is taking action as is Scotland, as is Northern Ireland and are countries right across Europe and right across the globe.

So, England is an "outlier" according to Drakeford and restrictions avoid infections apparently, so why aren't cases in England a lot higher and why aren't cases in Wales a lot lower?

Do you support restrictions in place in Wales?

Do you want restrictions like France, which has led to unrest and has not in any way stopped a huge increase in cases?

 

[kristiang85]

Some really good news:

As a result of low numbers of Covid patients needing ventilation, there are now fewer people in critical care beds in England than at the same time in the previous five years.

Official NHS England data show that on January 2 2022, there were 3,055 people in critical care beds in England, leaving a quarter of total critical care beds still available.

On January 2 2021, there were 3,911 critical care beds filled out of an available 4,875 (80 per cent). In 2018, during a bad flu season, 3,270 of 3,704 critical care beds (88 per cent) were being used.

Covid cases approaching their peak in all parts of England, data show

‘It’s beginning to look quite hopeful’, say experts, as number of people on mechanical ventilators reaches lowest level since October

www.telegraph.co.uk

I think all the numbers show that restrictions should in fact be dropped in their entirety by the end of the month.

 

[bramling]

I'm not sure having the devolved Nations taking different actions has been that much of an issue. Certainly it gives an opportunity to look at the results of different measures on similar populations. Probably there needs to be a UK wide position on international border controls, but internally not so much.

It is a very big issue when myself (and presumably yourself) as UK citizens are barred from entering parts of the U.K. as has been the case at some points.

Likewise when watching Drakeford spouting off on Sky today, when clearly we have a politician ploughing on with his own very personal agenda, paying scant regard to reality in the process. It’s quite conspicuous from Drakeford’s tone that it’s all about using Covid as a means of flexing some muscle.

Meanwhile, in another part of the U.K., we have Khan threatening to charge outsiders for having the temerity to drive into London, and making up his own rules about masks, which of course apply to all of us even though non-Londoners have no way of holding him to account (hence why I regard him and anything he does as illegitimate).

 

[yorksrob]

It is a very big issue when myself (and presumably yourself) as UK citizens are barred from entering parts of the U.K. as has been the case at some points.

Likewise when watching Drakeford spouting off on Sky today, when clearly we have a politician ploughing on with his own very personal agenda.

Meanwhile, in another part of the U.K., we have Khan threatening to charge outsiders for having the temerity to drive into London, and making up his own rules about masks, which of course apply to all of us even though non-Londoners have no way of holding him to account (hence why I regard him and anything he does as illegitimate).

That's a good point. Instituting border controls within the UK unilaterally is probably something that shouldn't be allowed constitutionally. However, once you get there, In not so concerned about the devolved government regulations the response.

In terms of Khan, he can regulate what British citizens are allowed to do on his turf to an extent, but he can't stop them traveling in our through it.

 

[bramling]

That's a good point. Instituting border controls within the UK unilaterally is probably something that shouldn't be allowed constitutionally. However, once you get there, In not so concerned about the devolved government regulations the response.

In terms of Khan, he can regulate what British citizens are allowed to do on his turf to an extent, but he can't stop them traveling in our through it.

I think things have gone a bit too far with the devolved institutions now. When questioned on Sky, he failed to give any meaningful response to the question of why Wales is faring worse than England, and then to dig his hole deeper the best reason he could come up with for restrictions was that other European countries are doing it.

One wonders if Drakeford would eat excrement if “everyone else was doing it”?

As for Khan, rather than bleating on about masks, how about he devotes some time to attempting to tackle knife crime in London?…

 

[yorksrob]

I think things have gone a bit too far with the devolved institutions now. When questioned on Sky, he failed to give any meaningful response to the question of why Wales is faring worse than England, and then to dig his hole deeper the best reason he could come up with for restrictions was that other European countries are doing it.

One wonders if Drakeford would eat excrement if “everyone else was doing it”?

I think that if there had been a better thought out federal system developed in the UK, there would more likely be a more logical separation of powers between the UK and devolved level.

If course, this wouldn't appeal to genuine separatists who have little interest in an effective devolved system of government as it would undermine the argument for separation, so I doubt it would have been achieved anyway.

 

[BRX]

You disagreed with my post; here it is again:

Rather than beat about the bush, can you clarify exactly what you are disagreeing with? I will then be happy to reply accordingly.

I said:

So... in past years we had flu, and no modifications to behaviour, and an NHS crisis.

This year we have covid, with some modifications to behaviour (masks, WFH, etc) and an NHS crisis "no worse".

Your conclusion from this is that the modifications to behaviour make no difference, rather than that the underlying potential for impact is worse with Covid. You seem to be discounting the possibility that without the current modifications to behaviour, the pressure we currently see in the NHS would be even worse.

(I have added the bold emphasis).

I don't know why you're quoting figures for Scotland or Wales or France or asking me what restrictions I want. I haven't said I want more restrictions, and it's a fool's errand to try and draw meaningful conclusions from comparisons between nations with broadly similar restrictions and broadly similar case rates unless you are going to do a lot of detailed work to demonstrate that you've corrected for a load of confounding factors.

The only point I was making was about your dodgy logic. You claimed that the NHS is currently under similar pressure to what it has been under in previous winters. Let's just accept that premise for the sake of argument. But then you use this to support your belief that this means all of our current behaviour modifications have no effect. This just doesn't make sense - you can't draw that conclusion. You can only draw that conclusion if you start out by saying that the current pressure on the NHS is the same as it would be without all of the current behaviour modifications we are seeing. This is circular reasoning.

By the way I say "behaviour modifications" instead of "restrictions" because what we have had all through the pandemic is a mixture between compulsory restrictions (many not actually enforced) and voluntary changes in behaviour. Many of these voluntary changes might not be visible to everyone, maybe especially not visible to those who are young and healthy and move mainly amongst people similar to themselves.

 

[43066]

One wonders if Drakeford would eat excrement if “everyone else was doing it”?

Lots of it certainly seems to come out of his mouth!

 

[Berliner]

I think that if there had been a better thought out federal system developed in the UK, there would more likely be a more logical separation of powers between the UK and devolved level.

If course, this wouldn't appeal to genuine separatists who have little interest in an effective devolved system of government as it would undermine the argument for separation, so I doubt it would have been achieved anyway.

You're right on the second part, I have no interest in anything less than full independence. Labour, however, who came up with the idea and facilitated the votes that brought Devolution into practice, were and still are a committed unionist party and could have come up with something closer to what you suggest.

That said, those who say they devolved governments have acted wrongly or gone too far or have too many restrictions wouldn't be saying that if it was the other way round. Remember last year, Scotland didn't have that early winter nation wide circuit breaker lockdown when England and Wales did. Was there praise on these boards then for Sturgeon for not following the UK lead, I wonder?

 

[yorksrob]

You're right on the second part, I have no interest in anything less than full independence. Labour, however, who came up with the idea and facilitated the votes that brought Devolution into practice, were and still are a committed unionist party and could have come up with something closer to what you suggest.

That said, those who say they devolved governments have acted wrongly or gone too far or have too many restrictions wouldn't be saying that if it was the other way round. Remember last year, Scotland didn't have that early winter nation wide circuit breaker lockdown when England and Wales did. Was there praise on these boards then for Sturgeon for not following the UK lead, I wonder?

I must admit, I don't recall a time when Scotland had less stringent restrictions than England, although that may be in part due to my prreoccupation with what was going on here at the time.

I can remember disagreeing with the concept of a circuit breaker lockdown last year, but I don't recall Sturgeon explicitly coming out against one.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

I can see SAGE and their fake counterpart throwing everything they have at the rest of the month as their relevance disappears completely.

 

[big_rig]

I said:



(I have added the bold emphasis).

I don't know why you're quoting figures for Scotland or Wales or France or asking me what restrictions I want. I haven't said I want more restrictions, and it's a fool's errand to try and draw meaningful conclusions from comparisons between nations with broadly similar restrictions and broadly similar case rates unless you are going to do a lot of detailed work to demonstrate that you've corrected for a load of confounding factors.

The only point I was making was about your dodgy logic. You claimed that the NHS is currently under similar pressure to what it has been under in previous winters. Let's just accept that premise for the sake of argument. But then you use this to support your belief that this means all of our current behaviour modifications have no effect. This just doesn't make sense - you can't draw that conclusion. You can only draw that conclusion if you start out by saying that the current pressure on the NHS is the same as it would be without all of the current behaviour modifications we are seeing. This is circular reasoning.

By the way I say "behaviour modifications" instead of "restrictions" because what we have had all through the pandemic is a mixture between compulsory restrictions (many not actually enforced) and voluntary changes in behaviour. Many of these voluntary changes might not be visible to everyone, maybe especially not visible to those who are young and healthy and move mainly amongst people similar to themselves.

As of today there have been one hundred and thirty five million vaccinations. Are you an anti-vaxxer? Do you deny that vaccines against covid significantly reduce hospitalisation and death? Why not mention them in your long, rambling screed about behaviour change?

 

[yorkie]

I said:



(I have added the bold emphasis).

Are you suggesting that the restrictions in place in Wales, Scotland. France don't change behaviour?

I don't know why you're quoting figures for Scotland or Wales or France

Because they have greater restrictions, aimed at changing behaviour, than England.

or asking me what restrictions I want. I haven't said I want more restrictions, and it's a fool's errand to try and draw meaningful conclusions from comparisons between nations with broadly similar restrictions and broadly similar case rates unless you are going to do a lot of detailed work to demonstrate that you've corrected for a load of confounding factors.

I am glad you agree with me that such restrictions are not warranted.

The only point I was making was about your dodgy logic. You claimed that the NHS is currently under similar pressure to what it has been under in previous winters.

I quoted from a source, as did @kristiang85 ; if you disagree with those sources, that's your prerogative.

Let's just accept that premise for the sake of argument. But then you use this to support your belief that this means all of our current behaviour modifications have no effect. This just doesn't make sense - you can't draw that conclusion. You can only draw that conclusion if you start out by saying that the current pressure on the NHS is the same as it would be without all of the current behaviour modifications we are seeing. This is circular reasoning.

By the way I say "behaviour modifications" instead of "restrictions" because what we have had all through the pandemic is a mixture between compulsory restrictions (many not actually enforced) and voluntary changes in behaviour. Many of these voluntary changes might not be visible to everyone, maybe especially not visible to those who are young and healthy and move mainly amongst people similar to themselves.

Yes voluntary behaviour modifications among those who are most vulnerable will be making some difference. That said, can you be sure that such people don't make such modifications when the NHS is under similar (or more!) pressure due to 'flu? If the answer is yes then that demonstrates the lack of logic applied by such people.

As far as I am aware you are supportive of restrictions:

What action do I think should be taken? I think we should protect against the worst effects of what is a plausible "bad" scenario by bringing certain restrictions back in, and they should be rapidly removed if and when it becomes apparent that such a scenario is unlikely to play out.

But maybe you've revised your position since then?

If you made it clearer what you are advocating, we'd be able to avoid going round in circles and talking at cross-purposes.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

You disagreed with my post; here it is again:

Rather than beat about the bush, can you clarify exactly what you are disagreeing with? I will then be happy to reply accordingly.

Given the current case rates, how can it be that harsh restrictions in NI, Wales and Scotland are kee

I wouldn't take too much credence with case data giving it requires participative behaviour by those who may be infected along with the ability to take tests and there availability so testing has too many variables for me. You can't feint hospitalisation data though and each nation is showing the following increases from the upturn in hospitalised from mid December as follows:

England 250%
Scotland 250%
Wales 217%
NI 113%

So that shows there isn't really anything to distinguish between England, Scotland and Wales approach looks like NI is around 7-10 days behind the other nations on case increases so that may account for it.

 

[yorkie]

I wouldn't take too much credence with case data giving it requires participative behaviour by those who may be infected along with the ability to take tests and there availability so testing has too many variables for me. You can't feint hospitalisation data though and each nation is showing the following increases from the upturn in hospitalised from mid December as follows:

England 250%
Scotland 250%
Wales 217%
NI 113%

So that shows there isn't really anything to distinguish between England, Scotland and Wales approach looks like NI is around 7-10 days behind the other nations on case increases so that may account for it.

Exactly; the additional restrictions and associated behavioural changes in Scotland, Wales and NI are not resulting in reduced cases compared to England. This is strong evidence that they don't work.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Exactly; the additional restrictions and associated behavioural changes in Scotland, Wales and NI are not resulting in reduced cases compared to England. This is strong evidence that they don't work.

For clarity I presume your reference to cases above is meant as hospital cases?

 

[yorkie]

For clarity I presume your reference to cases above is meant as hospital cases?

Both really, though hospitalisations will also be linked to factors such as levels of vaccine refusal, obesity, age profiles etc but for a broadly comparable set of demographics, if there are similar levels of hospitalisations in areas under more vs fewer restrictions, that would imply that the additional restrictions are not justified.

I see no evidence that additional restrictions in place outside England is having an impact; I therefore reject the claims made by Drakeford (and anyone else who makes similar claims).