Disruption to services - Storm Dudley & Storm Eunice

[vvd]

Genuinely exceptional compared to pre-industrial averages from the last couple of thousand years, yes absolutely it does seem that way doesn't it. However, genuinely exceptional and rare in future years I'd say is much less clear.

Weather records only began 130 years ago.

 

[150249]

Been reinforcing the house for an hour or two

 

[Bletchleyite]

Been reinforcing the house for an hour or two

I'm intrigued about what one would need to reinforce on a house for that length of time unless it was in a poor state of repair...all I'll be doing is putting the wheelie bin in the garage.

 

[Graham H]

Slightly confused. Red warning for North Cornwall but BBC weather has max 68mph for both St Ives and Newquay locations yet where I am (Hants coast) its an amber warning but BBC weather forecast says 85mph winds around 10am. I believe the BBC forecast is maximum gust speed and also appreciate things will change all the time but things dont seem to currently match up with regard to warning level and hourly forecast. Either way I am not planning on going anywhere tomorrow !

 

[bramling]

Slightly confused. Red warning for North Cornwall but BBC weather has max 68mph for both St Ives and Newquay locations yet where I am (Hants coast) its an amber warning but BBC weather forecast says 85mph winds around 10am. I believe the BBC forecast is maximum gust speed and also appreciate things will change all the time but things dont seem to currently match up with regard to warning level and hourly forecast. Either way I am not planning on going anywhere tomorrow !

There will always be a margin of error between different models and different locations. If one looks at a range of models, the one thing we can say with some certainty is it's going to be somewhere between bad and very bad.

 

[kristiang85]

"Satellite reveals Storm Eunice is now rapidly deepening. It exhibits features of Shapiro-Keyser cyclone structure & looks similar to other rapidly deepening S-K storms e.g St Judes Storm. The difference between Eunice & Judes is that Eunice will reach the UK at peak intensity.."

https://twitter.com/alex_wx_/status/1494326772682264584

 

[RichJF]

There will always be a margin of error between different models and different locations. If one looks at a range of models, the one thing we can say with some certainty is it's going to be somewhere between bad and very bad.

I'm in Sussex at altitude & we have 75mph winds forecast but still in the amber zone.

 

[800001]

GTR have services in for the GN side.

1tph Kings Lynn-Cambridge
2tph Peterborough-Stevenage
1tph Cambridge-King's Cross stopping
1tph Cambridge-King's Cross semi-fast
2tph Welwyn Garden City-Moorgate
2tph Stevenage-Moorgate via Hertford North

One would hope the Cambridge fast service at least will be 12 cars, but some of these are shown as using King's Cross platform 9 which can only take 8 cars, so this could suggest they won't be 12s. Certainly last time we had this emergency service 700/0s were turning up.

Baring in mind only 2 x LNER per hour running, that should free up some of the platforms 0-8

 

[Bletchleyite]

"Satellite reveals Storm Eunice is now rapidly deepening. It exhibits features of Shapiro-Keyser cyclone structure & looks similar to other rapidly deepening S-K storms e.g St Judes Storm. The difference between Eunice & Judes is that Eunice will reach the UK at peak intensity.."

https://twitter.com/alex_wx_/status/1494326772682264584

Eunice is perhaps a bad choice of name...it sounds like your old Nan who would make you a cup of tea and offer you chocolate digestives to go with it. You'd not expect them to be laced with cyanide.

 

[Graham H]

I'm in Sussex at altitude & we have 75mph winds forecast but still in the amber zone.

and right now on the Hampshire coast its blue sky, sunshine and not a breath of wind.................scary or what and I mean whats coming tomorrow

 

[kristiang85]

Eunice is perhaps a bad choice of name...it sounds like your old Nan who would make you a cup of tea and offer you chocolate digestives to go with it. You'd not expect them to be laced with cyanide.

I think there was some research done in the US where it was found that more people died in severe hurricanes with female names than male names, with one theory that they took it less seriously as it sounded 'nicer'.

 

[Gareth]

Eunice is perhaps a bad choice of name...it sounds like your old Nan who would make you a cup of tea and offer you chocolate digestives to go with it. You'd not expect them to be laced with cyanide.

I tend to think more of Eunice from Gladiators.

 

[Sleepy]

Greater Anglia have now cancelled all Ipswich - Lowestoft and Sudbury line services.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As a relevant aside, the company I am currently contracted to has closed several major offices tomorrow, with staff required to work remotely.

 

[Saint66]

Was supposed to be making my way up the ECML to Leeds tomorrow! Don’t think I’ll be making the trip now!

 

[Class172]

On my phone so can't write a fully formatted list, but GWR have published their amendments/cancellations for tomorrow.

In short, some things I spotted:

• No service on Cornwall branches
• No service to Okehampton/Barnstaple
• Services split at Exeter
• No Weston-super-Mare - Bristol local services
• No services into Wales, and will terminate at Taunton in SW direction

I may have missed a few things just from my quick read.

 

[800001]

Was supposed to be making my way up the ECML to Leeds tomorrow! Don’t think I’ll be making the trip now!

4 hours Kings Cross to Leeds is the new schedule.

 

[kristiang85]

I must admit I'm slightly triggered by "Stay indoors" flashing up everywhere after the trials and tribulations of the last couple of years

 

[Howardh]

If your house suffers severe damage, and you can't get through to the insurers as they would be so busy - can you crack on and get some emergency or proper repairs done to stop the situation getting worse, and then pass them the bill, or would that invalid the insurance as you generally need 2/3 quotes and an assessor round?

Had damage last time, couldn't get through, but as it happened a local repairman fixed the issue for less than my excess so didn't need the insurer then. But not half worried about tomorrow...

 

[kristiang85]

If your house suffers severe damage, and you can't get through to the insurers as they would be so busy - can you crack on and get some emergency or proper repairs done to stop the situation getting worse, and then pass them the bill, or would that invalid the insurance as you generally need 2/3 quotes and an assessor round?

Had damage last time, couldn't get through, but as it happened a local repairman fixed the issue for less than my excess so didn't need the insurer then. But not half worried about tomorrow...

We just sold our house this week for 40k more than we expected, so just our luck the roof will blow off tomorrow

 

[jon0844]

Talking about people who have to work, I've heard than non essential NHS staff have been told not to come in tomorrow.

 

[physics34]

Book on just after 3am tomorrow morning, currently no work allocated.... just bloody hope it stays that way.....

 

[Howardh]

We just sold our house this week for 40k more than we expected, so just our luck the roof will blow off tomorrow

I wish I could find that funny! In the mid 10's the whole of one side of my roof, the side facing the wind, was re-done completely including fresh beams but reusing the old slates. Cost £5000 so I would expect if the whole rood blew off it would cost double + inflation at least.. £15-20k??

 

[High Dyke]

50mph is being planned for on the MML.

East Midlands Railway info here: https://www.eastmidlandsrailway.co....-eunice-on-friday-18th-february-do-not-travel

 

[Bletchleyite]

If your house suffers severe damage, and you can't get through to the insurers as they would be so busy - can you crack on and get some emergency or proper repairs done to stop the situation getting worse, and then pass them the bill, or would that invalid the insurance as you generally need 2/3 quotes and an assessor round?

Had damage last time, couldn't get through, but as it happened a local repairman fixed the issue for less than my excess so didn't need the insurer then. But not half worried about tomorrow...

In an insurance contract you're generally required to do what you reasonably can to mitigate losses, so most likely this would be prudent, as not doing an emergency patch-up could result in them being liable for a larger claim. However, that wouldn't extend to a "full" major fix.

I wish I could find that funny! In the mid 10's the whole of one side of my roof, the side facing the wind, was re-done completely including fresh beams but reusing the old slates. Cost £5000 so I would expect if the whole rood blew off it would cost double + inflation at least.. £15-20k??

Assuming you are insured, then not your problem.

If you're not, then that's very silly indeed and I wish you luck.

 

[kristiang85]

I wish I could find that funny! In the mid 10's the whole of one side of my roof, the side facing the wind, was re-done completely including fresh beams but reusing the old slates. Cost £5000 so I would expect if the whole rood blew off it would cost double + inflation at least.. £15-20k??

Who knows, but it wouldn't surprise me. I'll be reading through the insurance policies tonight, that's for sure...

The house did survive a direct bomb hit in WW2 though ,so hopefully Eunice won't be too much to put up with.

 

[Howardh]

Talking about people who have to work, I've heard than non essential NHS staff have been told not to come in tomorrow.

During severe gales in the 2000's I was delivering prescriptions for a pharmacy, which basically had to be done. One van door was completely blown off, simply couldn't hang on to it. At leats the boss was understanding (apart from having to finish the job doorless...)

In an insurance contract you're generally required to do what you reasonably can to mitigate losses, so most likely this would be prudent, as not doing an emergency patch-up could result in them being liable for a larger claim. However, that wouldn't extend to a "full" major fix.



Assuming you are insured, then not your problem.

If you're not, then that's very silly indeed and I wish you luck.

I am absoolutely insured!!

 

[adc82140]

Slightly confused. Red warning for North Cornwall but BBC weather has max 68mph for both St Ives and Newquay locations yet where I am (Hants coast) its an amber warning but BBC weather forecast says 85mph winds around 10am. I believe the BBC forecast is maximum gust speed and also appreciate things will change all the time but things dont seem to currently match up with regard to warning level and hourly forecast. Either way I am not planning on going anywhere tomorrow !

It's not just the wind speed that influences the warning level. There is a high Sping tide due up the Bristol Channel as well. This massively increases the risk for coastal areas, despite theower wind speed than for example Dorset.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I am absoolutely insured!!

Sensible. Then whether it costs £10K or £100K isn't your problem, fortunately. Most policies will cover for a full rebuild e.g. if it burnt down.

 

[Chesh]

As a relevant aside, the company I am currently contracted to has closed several major offices tomorrow, with staff required to work remotely.

We are the same, and were advised at 3pm that attending the office is voluntary tomorrow, and if not to work remotely from home.