SE%Traveller
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South they seem to be running three starting Blackfriars tomorrow: 2TPH Brighton; 2TPH Horsham; & 2TPH Sevenoaks.
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Disruption to services - Storm Dudley & Storm Eunice
- Thread starter londonmidland
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South they seem to be running three starting Blackfriars tomorrow: 2TPH Brighton; 2TPH Horsham; & 2TPH Sevenoaks.
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CaptainHaddock
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I wonder if the rail industry's over reaction to tomorrow's predicted weather is a consequence of the "keep you safe at all costs" mentality that was so widespread over the course of the pandemic. Here in my part of South Yorkshire the Met Office predicts an average wind speed between 11 and 33mph on Friday; a bit breezy maybe but hardly disruptive. Yet Northern Rail have issued a stern "DO NOT TRAVEL" warning across their entire network!
Call me old fashioned but I'm an adult and can make my own decisions as to whether to travel or not and will accept the consequences if my journey is disrupted. My journey to Sheffield.for a walk and to visit a few real ale pubs may not technically be "essential" but I'm certainly not going to spend my day off hiding behind the sofa just because it's a bit blustery outside!
Call me old fashioned but I'm an adult and can make my own decisions as to whether to travel or not and will accept the consequences if my journey is disrupted. My journey to Sheffield.for a walk and to visit a few real ale pubs may not technically be "essential" but I'm certainly not going to spend my day off hiding behind the sofa just because it's a bit blustery outside!
frediculous
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What I don't quite get is that Thameslink Peterborough services are pathed for the same timings tomorrow as today - even though there's a speed restriction. They do more than 50mph between Peterborough and Stevenage normally, so will be immediately delayed by the speed restriction.
Wivenswold
Established Member
I laughed out loud. I was working in Barking Booking office when the seriously bad snow hit in 1991. A foot of snow, trains still running but 10 minute delays were somehow proof that the country was going to the dogs. I'm not saying it wasn't or hasn't since, but the over-reactions were always amusing.
My company has shut offices across the UK and Ireland for tomorrow, my wife works in the West End of London and says all of the business around her are shut tomorrow. I think the message is getting out there and we have an unofficial bank holiday in the offing. but this one is without the usually luxuries like electricity and a garden fence.
bramling
Veteran Member
Tomorrow is a bit mire than "a bit blustery". Numerous models are predicting something very significant. I don't think that degree of forecasting confidence can be lightly dismissed.
Ex-controller
Member
I can sense the gritted teeth in the staff members response from here.
Peterthegreat
Established Member
Well the BBC are predicting gusts up to 68mph in Sheffield tomorrow, the Met Office 61mph.
More to do with derailing a HST at Carmont I think.
D1537
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Translation: The most important thing that must happen is the thing that I want to do.
Class 466
Established Member
Whilst such a thing is impossible to predict, Dover to Faversham, Maidstone East & Rochester to Swanley are often worst hit, so therefore (especially in the case of the first two) are going to be served as normal. I expect many trees will come down across the country - I just hope to god that there's no tragic loss of life due to this storm.
Wivenswold
Established Member
Different apps use different weather forecasting computer models hence the inconsistency. There are dozens of models, some are better than others. Personally, I'd go for the Met Office over the BBC but I don't like the absolutism of weather apps, the forecast for you is "winds gusting up to 60 - 70 mph" that's more than you need to know to decide whether to go to the shops or not.
Nice to see that your crystal ball is in full working order to be able to tell that the plans are an over-reaction before the storm has even arrived...
Mcr Warrior
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Full refund or travel Saturday, Sunday or even Monday, I would assume?
Any port in a storm!
Oh I see what you are doing there, a nice bit of misrepresenting what the Met Office are saying. Willfully ignoring the 6 hours of gusts of 50 - 60 mph. And its those gusts that bring things down.
In November for Storm Arwen. Was a pretty bad one too!
cf111
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Yes I believe I can travel up to Monday at least if I wish.Full refund or travel Saturday, Sunday or even Monday, I would assume?
Any port in a storm!
Haha, quite literally!
Wivenswold
Established Member
In response to the suggestions that the rail industry has over-reacted to the forecast. Well, no, they haven't.
The current forecast is as bad as the Burns Day Storm in 1990. Okay, so forecasts are not set in stone. The best possible outcome is that this does turn out to be an over-reaction and nobody dies. But one particularly accurate model (AROME) has been playing with the idea of a sting-jet situation arising across the middle of the UK, while that's a possibility we have a chance of 100mph gusts across the midlands and the fens.
Also remember the Yellow Warning north of the M62 for possible heavy snow. This set-up could and I have to emphasis the word "could", bring chaos to our transport network. The rail industry is putting safety first.
The current forecast is as bad as the Burns Day Storm in 1990. Okay, so forecasts are not set in stone. The best possible outcome is that this does turn out to be an over-reaction and nobody dies. But one particularly accurate model (AROME) has been playing with the idea of a sting-jet situation arising across the middle of the UK, while that's a possibility we have a chance of 100mph gusts across the midlands and the fens.
Also remember the Yellow Warning north of the M62 for possible heavy snow. This set-up could and I have to emphasis the word "could", bring chaos to our transport network. The rail industry is putting safety first.
Sarcasm doesn't always translate so well in written form.
Sometimes individual services may get cancelled due to maintenance requirements or crew hours.
When the Severn Tunnel flooded last October, XC terminated a couple of trains at Newport rather than Cardiff due to ‘flooding’ despite there not being any flooding between Newport or Cardiff - However that unit would usually run back ECS from Cardiff to Bristol via the Severn Tunnel. Turning at Newport allowed the unit to run back to the depot via Gloucester - Presumably the crew would’ve been over their hours had the train gone to Cardiff, then back to Bristol via Gloucester.
When the Severn Tunnel flooded last October, XC terminated a couple of trains at Newport rather than Cardiff due to ‘flooding’ despite there not being any flooding between Newport or Cardiff - However that unit would usually run back ECS from Cardiff to Bristol via the Severn Tunnel. Turning at Newport allowed the unit to run back to the depot via Gloucester - Presumably the crew would’ve been over their hours had the train gone to Cardiff, then back to Bristol via Gloucester.
Something that is being very much overlooked due to the severe winds. Very much the possibility of significant accumulations tomorrow.
As those who frequent the Covid sub-forum are all too aware 
I'm the first to complain about over-caution and the modern inability to assess and balance risk. And I do think the railway is often far too quick nowadays to cut services and/or impose speed limits at the the first hint of unusual weather.
But in this case, the caution appears well-justified, indeed I think the railways should be being even more cautious in this one case and cancel pretty much everything in most of England for the day.
I'm the first to complain about over-caution and the modern inability to assess and balance risk. And I do think the railway is often far too quick nowadays to cut services and/or impose speed limits at the the first hint of unusual weather.But in this case, the caution appears well-justified, indeed I think the railways should be being even more cautious in this one case and cancel pretty much everything in most of England for the day.
LNER are accepting Avanti and TPE tickets due to the disruption.Due to travel on the 1852 Edinburgh - Euston as far as Preston, then on to Manchester. The Avanti website says it's still running but the eight trees on the line north of Carlisle would suggest otherwise. They are also advising folk to abandon travel north of Carlisle. I'm only going today because of the warnings about tomorrow too.
Unless I'm missing something, I can't think of any way to get south using LNER, TPE aren't an option as they go down the WCML too. No idea if there are buses or what the plan might be. Oh well, better than hitting a dirty great tree at linespeed. If, somehow, the line is clear, is there even stock at Waverley/Polmadie/Craigentinny (do 390s visit?) to run a service?
I could attempt the 1730 LNER by York but there's no ticket acceptance with TPE.
Stay safe all!
TPE between Edinburgh and York, Avanti between Edinburgh and Kings Cross.
If TPE refused you between York and Manchester then that would be very unfair. Maybe tweet Tpe to ask if they would accept you?
Was there really any need?
You must have known what was causing the problems, and that it was completely beyond that person’s control. All you’ll have done is make someone’s already difficult day that little bit more unpleasant.
You might be able to, but clearly many cannot, as seen every time something like this happens.
They're not actually going to split at Exeter - they're expect to lose so much time due to 50mph that they will "step down" to the next service to form additional Exeter - Plymouth/Penzance services. That's all sea wall dependent of course!
Other changes:
- Paddington - Didcot local services will only run between Reading - Didcot
- Paddington - Cheltenham will only run Swindon - Cheltenham
- Paddington - Worcester/Hereford will only run Didcot - Worcester/Hereford
- Paddington - Oxford services cancelled
- Cardiff - Portsmouth will only run Bristol - Portsmouth
- Severn Beach branch looks like its cancelled
Oh yes, I agree entirely - and as demonstrated earlier, it means there aren't any stranded trains getting in the way of the infrastructure repairs even after they've been evacuated.
And warning you not to travel is how they establish the contractual right to actually make you accept the consequences. If you're such a big boy you shouldn't be worried about them confirming that it's an "on your own head be it" state of affairs.
And the reason very much will of been the wind in the Scottish areas.
As LNER were not running to Glasgow or Inverness, that places 2 extra sets at Craigentinny, that means they then have to move one of the Edinburgh finishers to term at Newcastle to free up space, that then gives Heaton an extra set, there for your 18:19 Newcastle service is cancelled as no room at Heaton for that set.
Always a far bigger issue going on, which not every member of staff would know about, in situations like this decisions will often be taken late, no need to be sarcastic to onboard crews about cancellations or delays.
Hellzapoppin
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Thanks for your thoughts I, I live on the Somerset levels and as an ex railwayman I helped sort out the 2014 flood damage, I was also one of the orange army at Dawlish, whilst trying to sort that out I was also at Penzance dealing with the trashed lineside equipment there.I would not like to be living on the Somerset levels tonight/tomorrow - good luck to you all there. High spring tide and this is not going to be relaxing. I think perhaps we might not see Bristol-Taunton services for a bit ( remember the last big floods? ). Unfortunately the M5 also runs down there, so us further west might have a few logistics bottlenecks to deal with
Even on the south coast we're looking at 60kt gusts ( 110kmh if you don't speak nautical ) - I don't think the wind is going to be aiming at Dawlish at any point, but it should give the new sea wall a nice workout. We'll find out in about 3 hours, looking at a live wind map...
Please give a thought to the people who have to go out in atrocious weather conditions to deal with issues be that railway related or otherwise, they'll be worried about their own homes and families as well as the job in hand and their own safety. Trust me it gets scary sometimes.
Will they put on a rail replacement bus or arrange for a taxi to Portsmouth Harbour?
I wish we could have some of that snow in Guildford. All we will get is rain. How boring.
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