Russia invades Ukraine

[squizzler]

And if not messing with Russia is purely down to their atomic arsenal. Should the same not apply to them in their views of Britain, France and the USA? Or do they have a greater appetite for the risk/rewards of nuclear conflict?

There are a lot on this forum who apparently believe that Putin would be more willing to use atomic bombs than free nation governments.

The Russian leadership has historically no qualms about bleeding their country white, as long as it’s only the peasants that are being thrown into the breach. This is easy to ensure with conventional or counter-insurgency wars.

A thermonuclear shambles would of course kill their precious elites, both home and abroad, rather than merely the little people. IMO threats to instigate such are not any more than bluster.

The growing public clamour for a no-fly zone demonstrates that citizens of free countries are a lot more commuted to a muscular “woke” ideology than these dictators expect, and can see through such empty threats even if their leaders cannot yet. As it ever was.

 

[DustyBin]

There are a lot on this forum who apparently believe that Putin would be more willing to use atomic bombs than free nation governments.

Right now yes, as he's the one backed into a corner.

The Russian leadership has historically no qualms about bleeding their country white, as long as it’s only the peasants that are being thrown into the breach. This is easy to ensure with conventional or counter-insurgency wars.

A thermonuclear shambles would of course kill their precious elites, both home and abroad, rather than merely the little people. IMO threats to instigate such are not any more than bluster.

You're probably correct but I'm not sure what goes through Putin's head, and seemingly nor does anybody else. That's the problem.

 

[squizzler]

You're probably correct but I'm not sure what goes through Putin's head, and seemingly nor does anybody else. That's the problem.

The problem is that if we give credence to these peoples propaganda it makes it more likely they will too. And then we are all in trouble

 

[adc82140]

The growing public clamour for a no-fly zone demonstrates that citizens of free countries are a lot more commuted to a muscular “woke” ideology than these dictators expect, and can see through such empty threats even if their leaders cannot yet. As it ever was.

I think you overestimate the public will for a no fly zone. 80% of the public probably don't even know what one is. A bunch of noisy journalists and some self appointed experts on Twitter do not represent public opinion. Much like those who were constantly calling for more Covid restrictions.

 

[Yew]

We cant touch Russia.

Russia has a population comparable to France and Germany combined, just because it it looks big on a map, does not mean that is populous and well equipped.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Mar 2022 ==

This is what I've said previously. When (not if) a Russian plane gets shot down Putin isn't going to say "fair enough we deserved that, best not fly there again" is he? He'll see it as an act of war.

If Putin wants to go to war with Europe, then the outcome would not be in his favour. Particularly when we consider what happened to the last leader who led Russia to an unpopular war on its western border.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Mar 2022 ==

But we could beat them if it came to that- what's stopping us? Nuclear weapons. Besides, who cares if it stops 1000 wars if we are all blown to oblivion. Better a world filled with war and destruction with hope than a world where everything has died from slow radiation posioning and nuclear destruction. I agree we should not intefere but only because of nuclear weapons. Without that I feel it is morally right to back up Ukraine, but like you said the threat is too great, which will only lead to another country in Russia's grasp.

Vladimir Putin knows the rules of the game as well as anyone, if he wants to commit suicide, there are simpler ways to do it.

 

[nw1]

I think you overestimate the public will for a no fly zone. 80% of the public probably don't even know what one is. A bunch of noisy journalists and some self appointed experts on Twitter do not represent public opinion. Much like those who were constantly calling for more Covid restrictions.

Exactly, this. Loudmouthed warmongering hawks like Dan Hodges. Who does he think he is? An absolute nobody, that's who. What does he know about anything? Did he have experience doing diplomacy in the Cold War?

 

[Iskra]

Russia has a population comparable to France and Germany combined, just because it it looks big on a map, does not mean that is populous and well equipped.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Mar 2022 ==


If Putin wants to go to war with Europe, then the outcome would not be in his favour. Particularly when we consider what happened to the last leader who led Russia to an unpopular war on its western border.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Mar 2022 ==


Vladimir Putin knows the rules of the game as well as anyone, if he wants to commit suicide, there are simpler ways to do it.

Russia's population is also in decline, it has major demographic issues.

Stalin died of natural causes didn't he?

 

[najaB]

The growing public clamour for a no-fly zone demonstrates that citizens of free countries are a lot more commuted to a muscular “woke” ideology than these dictators expect, and can see through such empty threats even if their leaders cannot

The western leaders know that any threat to use nuclear weapons - in an offensive capacity - is an empty one, but once the shooting starts, it is way too easy for the war to go hot - ether intentionally or through misunderstanding.

All through the cold war, the thing that kept the generals on both sides from a sound night's sleep wasn't the idea of a massive first strike (despite what Hollywood would have you believe). It was the idea that a dispute at a border checkpoint would escalate into a firefight and eventually result in the end of modern civilisation.

For an example of the tiny flashpoint that easily could have ended the human race, consider the tree that almost started WW3.

 

[Ediswan]

For an example of the tiny flashpoint that easily could have ended the human race, consider the tree that almost started WW3.

Even the moon once caused a brief panic:
https://historyofyesterday.com/the-moon-almost-caused-world-war-iii-42152e80837a
https://more.ppld.org/SpecialCollections/Index/ArticleOrders/221183.pdf

 

[Loppylugs]

You're probably correct but I'm not sure what goes through Putin's head, and seemingly nor does anybody else. That's the problem.

We all know what we would like to put through his head.

 

[Gostav]

I think now is a start of long struggle between East and West camps.

Pakistan to Import Wheat, Gas from Russia

ISLAMABAD —
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan announced Monday that his country will import about 2 million tons of wheat from Russia and buy natural gas as well under bilateral agreements the two sides signed last week during his official trip to Moscow.

Khan After Putin Visit: Pakistan to Import Wheat, Gas from Russia

Prime Minister presses ahead with long-planned two-day trip hours after Russian forces invaded Ukraine

www.voanews.com

Now, India condemned NATO's actions, Arab countries declared their neutrality, Brazil did not care about the United States, China fully opened up Russian wheat imports, and signed a series of major trade deals before and Pakistan's rare alignment with India's policies. Now developing world has begun to exert its influence. That would be a confrontation between developed countries with vested interests in EU & US and emerging developing countries.

 

[Cowley]

I think now is a start of long struggle between East and West camps.

Pakistan to Import Wheat, Gas from Russia

Khan After Putin Visit: Pakistan to Import Wheat, Gas from Russia

Prime Minister presses ahead with long-planned two-day trip hours after Russian forces invaded Ukraine

www.voanews.com

Now, India condemned NATO's actions, Arab countries declared their neutrality, Brazil did not care about the United States, China fully opened up Russian wheat imports, and signed a series of major trade deals before and Pakistan's rare alignment with India's policies. Now developing world has begun to exert its influence. That would be a confrontation between developed countries with vested interests in EU & US and emerging developing countries.

I did hear the other day that Ukraine is something like the 5th largest exporter of grain in the world (I believe Russia is the largest).
There could be money to be made for Russia out of this, or maybe there was in Putins eyes anyway?

 

[Doppelganger]

I did hear the other day that Ukraine is something like the 5th largest exporter of grain in the world (I believe Russia is the largest).
There could be money to be made for Russia out of this, or maybe there was in Putins eyes anyway?

The yellow in Ukraine's flag represents wheat

 

[Cowley]

The yellow in Ukraine's flag represents wheat

I feel like I should have known that…

 

[Cowley]

I’ve started a separate discussion on nuclear weapons which can be found here .

Obviously if there’s discussion on it directly related to the Ukraine situation then that’s absolutely fine to have in this thread.

 

[kermit]

This may be clutching at straws, but after the last week, it feels like maybe that's all there is left to do. There have been examples of superpowers being humiliated, despite their abundant weaponry, by populations determined to see them off. The Taliban in Afghanistan, whilst hardly role models for enlightened humanity, saw off the Russians, and then the Americans. And there was Vietnam. That's just about the most optimism I can gather right now.....

 

[DarloRich]

This is what I've said previously. When (not if) a Russian plane gets shot down Putin isn't going to say "fair enough we deserved that, best not fly there again" is he? He'll see it as an act of war. Like you I'm far from happy with the situation but it's not a case of weasel words, it's a case of not making a very bad situation into an unmitigated catastrophe.

Absolutely. It would/could be the start of an escalatory cycle that cant be controlled.

Out of interest...purely hypothetical...if there were no nuclear weapons....would engaging in a war with Russia be far more palatable? Accepting that they could still use long range conventional weapons to attack Western targets?

It's a pie in the sky question...and I guess geopolitics would be totally different anyway if it wasn't for the 'bomb'.

And if not messing with Russia is purely down to their atomic arsenal. Should the same not apply to them in their views of Britain, France and the USA? Or do they have a greater appetite for the risk/rewards of nuclear conflict?

If Russia did NOT have nuclear weapons we would be hitting Russian targets ( both within Ukraine and within Russia) with all kinds of conventional weapons. Because the Russians hold 1000's of such weapons mean we cant.

That we hold such weapons and are a part of NATO prevents Russia from attacking us.

To me, the shelling of residential areas is a) disgusting and b) escalation, so we're at a point where our own morality should no longer be a barrier.

Sadly, it isn't worth starting WW3 over. We didn't seem to worried when Russia did similar things in Syria.

Russia has a population comparable to France and Germany combined, just because it it looks big on a map, does not mean that is populous and well equipped.

I don't care how many people they have or hoe much territory. I care they hold 1000's of nuclear weapons. In any event, I meant we couldn't touch them via military action because of the risk of escalation and an nuclear response .

All through the cold war, the thing that kept the generals on both sides from a sound night's sleep wasn't the idea of a massive first strike (despite what Hollywood would have you believe). It was the idea that a dispute at a border checkpoint would escalate into a firefight and eventually result in the end of modern civilisation.

Agreed - The uncontrollable escalation of events from a minor issue was the big risk. However, there were times when a bolt from the blue/ first strike were a serious risk.

 

[adrock1976]

Absolutely. It would/could be the start of an escalatory cycle that cant be controlled.

If Russia did NOT have nuclear weapons we would be hitting Russian targets ( both within Ukraine and within Russia) with all kinds of conventional weapons. Because the Russians hold 1000's of such weapons mean we cant.

That we hold such weapons and are a part of NATO prevents Russia from attacking us.

Sadly, it isn't worth starting WW3 over. We didn't seem to worried when Russia did similar things in Syria.

I don't care how many people they have or hoe much territory. I care they hold 1000's of nuclear weapons. In any event, I meant we couldn't touch them via military action because of the risk of escalation and an nuclear response .

Agreed - The uncontrollable escalation of events from a minor issue was the big risk. However, there were times when a bolt from the blue/ first strike were a serious risk.

The bit I have bolded.

The only way that Russia Federation Putin (and Biden) could really get under the UK/EU/NATO's skin is to have somebody else do it for them, depending on who their perceived buddies/foes are.

During the Cold War, it was done by proxy in Guatemala (the CIA used the United Fruit Company as a front to overthrow various governments), and Angola (which conveniently happens to have oil) not long after declaring independence from Portugal to name but two notable long ongoing civil wars back then.

 

[brad465]

Given the reports of Russian soldiers/units surrendering/deserting (and videos of locals trying out/exploring abandoned Russian vehicles), it maybe that if this behaviour escalates more significantly, a no-fly zone becomes obsolete for the longer this drags on. Also, getting NATO directly involved could be used to rally Russian forces into more serious action, as there's a clear enemy, where at the moment only going after civilians is both surprising them and making some think twice about attacking.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Given the reports of Russian soldiers/units surrendering/deserting (and videos of locals trying out/exploring abandoned Russian vehicles), it maybe that if this behaviour escalates more significantly, a no-fly zone becomes obsolete for the longer this drags on. Also, getting NATO directly involved could be used to rally Russian forces into more serious action, as there's a clear enemy, where at the moment only going after civilians is both surprising them and making some think twice about attacking.

There is that. There's also a good argument that if Russia ultimately gets defeated by Ukrainians fighting alone (albeit with weapons supplied by NATO countries), that will be massively more embarrassing for Putin than if he got defeated because we came in and destroyed half his invasion force. I could imagine that would be more likely to lead to his being ousted as leader, with the possibility of some regime change in Russia. Us staying out of the conflict may also cause pro-Ukrainian sentiment across the World to remain stronger. Set against that is the issue that China is almost certainly looking at our response to judge whether it's worth them invading Taiwan. The more we refuse to get directly involved in Ukraine, the more likely they are to assume we wouldn't get directly involved in Taiwan either and therefore they can invade.

Also there's the issue that people in Ukraine are dying and having their homes destroyed *now*, and the morals of continuing to let them die when we could (at least in theory) do something to save them look very iffy to me. Plus of course the real risk that, if we don't get further involved, Russia will win, Ukraine will lose its freedom, and we'll then have an even larger, stronger, and more ravenous regime hungrily looking at more lands to the West.

 

[Gostav]

Given the reports of Russian soldiers/units surrendering/deserting (and videos of locals trying out/exploring abandoned Russian vehicles), it maybe that if this behaviour escalates more significantly

True or false news, it all depends on where you stand. I know some military and ex-military groups who analyse the current fighting situation and they have some objective speculation and commentary but may don't seem to fit this UK rail forum.

 

[takno]

True or false news, it all depends on where you stand. I know some military and ex-military groups who analyse the current fighting situation and they have some objective speculation and commentary but may don't seem to fit this UK rail forum.

Why don't you share this commentary and we can see if it fits? What doesn't seem to fit is somebody who consistently pushes a pro-Putin line making entirely unsupported declarations that everything is going great for the Russians

 

[Gostav]

Why don't you share this commentary and we can see if it fits? What doesn't seem to fit is somebody who consistently pushes a pro-Putin line making entirely unsupported declarations that everything is going great for the Russians

A few hours earlier, Donetsk's 1st "Slavic" Corps has joined forces with unknown Russian units on the coast of the Sea of Azov.

*Unknown Russian units, but must include the Chechen army

From the very beginning, the Russian army destroyed Ukraine's navy and air force, the advance troops occupied the airport center, and attacked the capital and other places but their real purpose is to encircle western Ukraine and eliminate the forces inside, and make sure the support from the west Europe cannot get in. Rapid maneuvering is required during the siege west side, so any broken or running out of oil vehicles should be abandoned immediately. That's why we're seeing so many videos of Russian troops dropping vehicles. For the Russian army, the speed of the troops was too slow. The intention was discovered by the opponent but the task was still completed.

And regarding China, many Westerners naively think that China is completely dependent on export trade, like "China would be ****ed because they rely on export and trade", but in fact, the proportion of China's export industry in GDP continues to decline, the government is deliberately guiding that.

 

[najaB]

but their real purpose is to encircle western Ukraine and eliminate the forces inside, and make sure the support from the west Europe cannot get in

That's not going well then.

 

[TheEdge]

From the very beginning, the Russian army destroyed Ukraine's navy and air force,

Apart from the drones that keep popping the unprotected convoys. Or the air defense that's seemingly keeping the Russian air force at arms length. But sure, ok.

the advance troops occupied the airport center,

Apart from the fact the VDV, who are meant to be a world class shock infantry got pushed back several times. And shot down, despite the claim above.

...their real purpose is to encircle western Ukraine and eliminate the forces inside, and make sure the support from the west Europe cannot get in.

I think the amount of T80s, T90s and other war material with a Javelin or NLAW shaped hole in the side would suggest its still getting in...

Rapid maneuvering is required during the siege west side, so any broken or running out of oil vehicles should be abandoned immediately. That's why we're seeing so many videos of Russian troops dropping vehicles.

Any vaguely competent military would make sure their logistics can keep up with their front line and not just be abandoning otherwise functional vehicles. Or is giving this equipment to the Ukrainian's just to make it fair?

And regarding China, many Westerners naively think that China is completely dependent on export trade, like "China would be ****ed because they rely on export and trade", but in fact, the proportion of China's export industry in GDP continues to decline, the government is deliberately guiding that.

Apparently Russia didn't/doesn't need that trade either. How's the ruble doing today?

 

[Gostav]

Apparently Russia didn't/doesn't need that trade either. How's the ruble doing today?

Oh, yes, if you also check the exchange rate of Euro to China Yuan is currently close to nearly 1:7, and is likely to fall further.

 

[najaB]

Oh, yes, if you also check the exchange rate of Euro to China Yuan is currently close to nearly 1:7, and is likely to fall further.

How about answering the question that was asked?

 

[yorksrob]

I think now is a start of long struggle between East and West camps.

Pakistan to Import Wheat, Gas from Russia

Khan After Putin Visit: Pakistan to Import Wheat, Gas from Russia

Prime Minister presses ahead with long-planned two-day trip hours after Russian forces invaded Ukraine

www.voanews.com

Now, India condemned NATO's actions, Arab countries declared their neutrality, Brazil did not care about the United States, China fully opened up Russian wheat imports, and signed a series of major trade deals before and Pakistan's rare alignment with India's policies. Now developing world has begun to exert its influence. That would be a confrontation between developed countries with vested interests in EU & US and emerging developing countries.

Out of interest, do you support this invasion then (or "military exercise" or whatever Putin's calling it) ?

 

[adc82140]

Make no mistake, Ukraine will fall to the Russians eventually. But they've got a serious bloody nose in the process, and will get bogged down in an insurgency for years to come. This is not what they planned for.

The difficult decision for the Ukrainians is how long they hold out for. Of course they should attempt to defend their homeland from invaders, but the destruction of their infrastructure, of homes, and the deaths of civilians will only increase as Putin gets more determined.

 

[squizzler]

According to the Guardian, the minister for the German Economy has said his country is now prepared for the Russian gas imports to stop. The reason for NATO's non intervention to this point has just fallen away.

• Germany is prepared should Russia stop exporting gas to the country, minister for the economy Robert Habeck has said.

Stopping gas exports and letting EU countries freeze represented the most severe avenue of Russian retaliation if NATO directly intervened in the Ukrainian conflict. given the flow of gas supplies has continued throughout, it might have been the "terrible consequences" Putin warned of should w e intervene, typical Putin double-speak which the media credulously assumed to be a thread of atomic war, not that anything Putin says should be paid heed to.

That’s his special skill as a former KGB probably squinted to psyops - to say something that allows your enemy to do their work for them creating terrible scenarios that have not been explicitly stated. Use your adversary’s stronger imagination against themselves, presumably a sort of emotional judo.

Meanwhile, public support for just that, at least in the form of a "no-fly-zone", continues to build.