When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[Mag_seven]

best possible result: Johnson badly wins but wounded badly. Internecine Tory warfare breaks out and consumes them all. Brilliant.

But is that good for the country - the country will be left to rot whilst the Tories scrap with one another?

 

[najaB]

But is that good for the country - the country will be left to rot whilst the Tories scrap with one another?

In the short term, no. But longer term if it means that we don't get another massive Tory majority at the next general election then it will be worth it.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

best possible result: Johnson badly wins but wounded badly. Internecine Tory warfare breaks out and consumes them all. Brilliant.

have to say much as i wanted him and his sycophantic mates out actually blowing up the Tory party and creating a stronger centrist party would be a far better outcome

 

[brad465]

But is that good for the country - the country will be left to rot whilst the Tories scrap with one another?

Depends, very little if anything bad will be done because Johnson won't have the authority to deliver it, but at the same time yes nothing good could be delivered either.

 

[Gloster]

But is that good for the country - the country will be left to rot whilst the Tories scrap with one another?

Well, it might keep them occupied. The alternative is that they spend their time finding ways to ‘dissuade’ people who dislike them from voting, protesting, etc. Or fiddling the rules to let them avoid their just deserts.

 

[DarloRich]

But is that good for the country - the country will be left to rot whilst the Tories scrap with one another?

We haven't had good governance for about 6 years so a bit more wont matter.

 

[Struner]

The Conservative and Unionist Party.

I’m still wondering where the “national’ bit comes in?

 

[SuperNova]

He's toast. Two by-election losses incoming. And if Jeremy Hunt is the best alternative, then the Tories are toast too.

 

[Bayum]

Some interesting stats shared by Rory Stewart.
If you remove the ‘pay roll vote’ and look entirely at backbenchers, nearly 75% voted against.

 

[jfollows]

Rory Stewart pointed out:
359 voting MPs
Payroll vote: 95 ministers + 47 PPS = 143
If we assume the 143 all voted for him (they will, mainly, but not all)
then 68 backbench MPs voted for Boris
and 148 backbench MPs voted against Boris, about 70% of them
Reported: "Off the record he is f***ed" and similar.
The beginning of the end, I agree.

 

[brad465]

Telegraph's Christopher Hope reporting that Government resignations are expected tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298

** Tory rebel MP tells me resignations from the Government are now expected tomorrow ** #Toryleadership

 

[Busaholic]

58.8% voted to either keep their ministerial preferments for the moment, or retain hopes/illusions of gaining them in the near future

41.2% voted to try to keep their seats at the next General Election, or gave Johnson the v-sign as they're retiring then anyway (Sir Roger Gale)

 

[jfollows]

Some interesting stats shared by Rory Stewart.
If you remove the ‘pay roll vote’ and look entirely at backbenchers, nearly 75% voted against.

Yes, I tried to break down the figures, his 75% may be a little high but I may be wrong also!
EDIT Explained if you widen the definition of "payroll vote" to add 20 trade envoys as well, then only 48 non-payroll backbench MPs voted for him and the percentage of non-payroll backbench MPs voting against him is more like 75%.

 

[Bayum]

Has BJ been crying? This BBC interview doesn’t look great.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

He's toast. Two by-election losses incoming. And if Jeremy Hunt is the best alternative, then the Tories are toast too.

ordinarily he would but hes BoJo and he won't go until he's pushed. Lets hope the Tories just eat themselves up although i suspect the rebels will largely melt away now and he's secure for 12 months

 

[DynamicSpirit]

58.8% voted to either keep their ministerial preferments for the moment, or retain hopes/illusions of gaining them in the near future

41.2% voted to try to keep their seats at the next General Election, or gave Johnson the v-sign as they're retiring then anyway (Sir Roger Gale)

I think that's a bit uncharitable. Plenty of Tory MPs have publicly stated principled reasons why they want Boris to go. And probably some of those who voted for Boris will have done so because they genuinely believe it's better to keep him as PM.

I don't doubt that some Tory MPs will have been motivated by self-interest in the way they voted, but it's a bit of a stretch (and frankly a bit ridiculous) to assume they all are.

 

[jfollows]

Yes, Boris is lying again and the only way the result is "decisive" is that it decides that he's on the way out. Reshuffles after resignations to follow ..... stage one of the process.

 

[Struner]

Telegraph's Christopher Hope reporting that Government resignations are expected tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298

John Lamont has resigned a couple of hours ago.

 

[Busaholic]

I think that's a bit uncharitable.

I'm prepared to be charitable to many people and many causes, but it will never extend to Boris Johnson or anyone who chooses to be associated with him.

 

[Bayum]

Telegraph's Christopher Hope reporting that Government resignations are expected tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298

Expected resignations due to Boris losing, or being kicked out for voting against or morally?

 

[Busaholic]

Expected resignations due to Boris losing, or being kicked out for voting against or morally?

Don't forget it's supposed to be a secret ballot, so how could they be kicked out?

 

[fgwrich]

Supposed to be, but given that most MPs seemed to almost immediately turn to Twitter afterwards, you almost might as well bring Ant and Dec along and chuck it as a phone vote in the middle of an ITV gameshow…

Don't forget it's supposed to be a secret ballot, so how could they be kicked out?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Rather a different vote percentage in reality than that forecast by certain people who gave the impression it would have been similar to the referendum vote percentages on the Brexit issue.

 

[brad465]

Rather a different vote percentage in reality than that forecast by certain people who gave the impression it would have been similar to the referendum vote percentages on the Brexit issue.

I think there's a difference between a desired outcome for amusement and a prediction. The point is even surviving confidence votes has historically been the beginning of the end at best, and while Johnson's winning margin is more comfortable than 52-48, it's not as comfortable as May's was, and her result was enough for Jacob-Rees Mogg to demand she step down at the time, something she did 6 months later (although not entirely because of JRM).

 

[OhNoAPacer]

If he doesn't go then expect to see General Election campaign to contain comments similar to 40% of Conservative MPs don't want Boris Johnson to be Prime Minister.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If he doesn't go then expect to see General Election campaign to contain comments similar to 40% of Conservative MPs don't want Boris Johnson to be Prime Minister.

Does anyone on this thread expect a General Election being called earlier than would be expected as a result of this vote of confidence measure?

 

[AlterEgo]

have to say much as i wanted him and his sycophantic mates out actually blowing up the Tory party and creating a stronger centrist party would be a far better outcome

Centrism as a genuine political force has minimal appeal in the UK. See Change UK, a “party” I had to check the name of, which sunk almost without trace.

Rory Stewart pointed out:
359 voting MPs
Payroll vote: 95 ministers + 47 PPS = 143
If we assume the 143 all voted for him (they will, mainly, but not all)
then 68 backbench MPs voted for Boris
and 148 backbench MPs voted against Boris, about 70% of them
Reported: "Off the record he is f***ed" and similar.
The beginning of the end, I agree.

Boris is now mortally wounded and will politically bleed out over the next year or so. Ukraine will be pushed ever further down the BBC website, Covid-19 is really over and there are only problems on the horizon with the soaring cost of living and natty stuff like the NI Protocol to deal with.

He’s done. I don’t expect him to lead the Tories at the next election.

 

[deltic]

Johnson is a survivor and there is no obvious successor, he stands a very good chance of being PM till the next election.

There is no comparison to May's situation where there was no support for her policy position and she had also effectively lost a general election

 

[skyhigh]

Rather a different vote percentage in reality than that forecast by certain people who gave the impression it would have been similar to the referendum vote percentages on the Brexit issue.

Please don't tell me you're trying to spin this as a good result for Boris.

 

[daodao]

Rory Stewart pointed out:
359 voting MPs
Payroll vote: 95 ministers + 47 PPS = 143
If we assume the 143 all voted for him (they will, mainly, but not all)
then 68 backbench MPs voted for Boris
and 148 backbench MPs voted against Boris, about 70% of them

Rubbish and far too simplistic, like the nauseating fool you have quoted. A lot of Tory MPs on the "payroll" will have voted against Boris.

The whips need to identify the key "traitors" (from Bojo's perspective) in the government and purge them in the same way as Mr R Stewart was treated in late 2019.

Whether or not the Tories do eventually get rid of Bojo, at the next GE the English electorate will do everything to try to ensure that the Labour party can't rule the UK in league with the SNP, who [like Sinn Fein] are enemies of the state. That is what did for Red Ed in 2015.