Railway Industrial Disputes Mk2

[Wolfie]

So govt needs to see strength of feeling from workforce that they need to allow operators to put at least 5% on the table to attempt to move negotiations forward but i suspect that won't happen with govt in semi paralysis.

If HMG allows one publicly funded industry to basically blackmail themselves a bigger rise the same will happen across the piece. More likely HMG will dig in and dig in hard.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2022 ==

So another pathetic pay offer. Not only do they expect people to be happy with a pay rise well below inflation this year...they also want to include a pay rise below inflation for next year too. 2% flat offer and not a CPI protected rise. Awful

Welcome to the public sector. HMT haven't started on the railway yet.

 

[TheBigD]

With the push to NO Red Zone working, overall they get less work done, as the time it takes to do the paperwork before work starts, and still give up in time for green signals is very short in many places, a big gang will get a fair amount done, reduce the headcount, less work, more ESR's !
With bigger signal centres covering a bigger area with one signaller, even less work is done, with limits on the amount of line blockages at one time on a panel / workstation

Just to add to what you've posted...

An increasing number of the smaller signalboxes also have limits on line blockages now. Some have a block at certain times, and some have a limit on the number depending upon other stuff going on.
One of the boxes I work has a policy of a minimum of a 12 minute gap for a lineblock to be given. With a mix of freight and passenger trains of around 5 an hour each way, unless there is late running and a gap, the answer is usually a no.

From what we have been told (and I accept it may be wrong) is that more faults will be left until night shift so that staff can get then get lineblocks, with degraded working until then.

From many posts on here, I get the impression that many posters don't "get" what the impact has been from the move away from red zone working.

 

[JonathanH]

The government are using the reduction of the fare box as a reason to cut spending on the railways. That’s continuing the Conservative policy of reducing the amount of money they spend on the railways for day to day operations, including on maintenance.

Where is the money going to come from though? What was annual support of £5 billion to the railway is now significantly more. All any government wants to do is to get back to a sustainable level of funding for the railway. It has to reduce from where it is.

Note that some of the candidates in the Conservative election race want 20% cuts to budgets in all departments. Now I hope that doesn't happen but you can see the direction of travel. We also have a Labour party criticising tax increases introduced by the Conservatives. Where is the money coming from to continue to prop up the railway at its current level?

 

[ClivePage]

With the new rail strike due to take place on 27th July will TFL and Avanti West Coast still be running as I don't see those two TOCs mentioned in any reports.

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-07-11...ail-companies-vote-to-strike-amid-pay-dispute

The BBC report says that this time GTR Thameslink will also be strike-bound - are they right on this?

 

[Silverlinky]

Where is the money going to come from though? What was annual support of £5 billion to the railway is now significantly more. All any government wants to do is to get back to a sustainable level of funding for the railway. It has to reduce from where it is.

Note that some of the candidates in the Conservative election race want 20% cuts to budgets in all departments. Now I hope that doesn't happen but you can see the direction of travel. We also have a Labour party criticising tax increases introduced by the Conservatives. Where is the money coming from to continue to prop up the railway at its current level?

We also have a Labour party who did indeed criticise Tory tax increases but are now criticising Tory leadership candidates promises to cut taxes (income, fuel duty etc) saying their plans are un-costed and asking where the money is going to come from!!
Easy for the opposition to sit on the fence and lean whichever way the wind is blowing, much more difficult it seems for them to actually come out with some plans as to how they would tackle the current crisis and show their costings for any commitments they made.

 

[KM1991]

Where is the money going to come from though? What was annual support of £5 billion to the railway is now significantly more. All any government wants to do is to get back to a sustainable level of funding for the railway. It has to reduce from where it is.

Note that some of the candidates in the Conservative election race want 20% cuts to budgets in all departments. Now I hope that doesn't happen but you can see the direction of travel. We also have a Labour party criticising tax increases introduced by the Conservatives. Where is the money coming from to continue to prop up the railway at its current level?

The same place TOCs make hundreds of millions for ‘managing’ the railways.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Just to add to what you've posted...

An increasing number of the smaller signalboxes also have limits on line blockages now. Some have a block at certain times, and some have a limit on the number depending upon other stuff going on.
One of the boxes I work has a policy of a minimum of a 12 minute gap for a lineblock to be given. With a mix of freight and passenger trains of around 5 an hour each way, unless there is late running and a gap, the answer is usually a no.

From what we have been told (and I accept it may be wrong) is that more faults will be left until night shift so that staff can get then get lineblocks, with degraded working until then.

From many posts on here, I get the impression that many posters don't "get" what the impact has been from the move away from red zone working.

NR have worked that out which is why they want to force roster the staff as follows

Colleagues may be rostered up to 39 weeks of nights, 39 weekends and 65 weekend shifts, except for those colleagues who started in role before 31 March 2014. These colleagues would continue with their existing arrangements.

quoted from the document appended further up this thread

Pay offer general grades-Maintenance and works delivery changes

The industry had adequate processes in place to minimise red zone working but they either weren't being adhered to or had not been properly implemented. Several of the recent tragic fatalities to railway colleagues clearly show tasks that shouldn't have being performed under RZW still were. NR rightly just bought the shutters down in the end but it was always going to end up this way and mgt should have been working with unions over a decade ago to deal with this not just try and force in through pay deals.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The same place TOCs make hundreds of millions for ‘managing’ the railways.

Where do Northern stash away all the hundreds of millions you think that TOC makes?

 

[43066]

Let's just say that it does happen, what impact will that have on the rest of the publicly funded workforce. Rail workers get lets say 11%, but the public sector as a whole is offered 2%-3%. Of course this will cause widespread anger, and likely trigger more industrial action. So the government relents and gives the entire public sector 11% as well. But they've got to fund it somehow, after this will be an unprecedented that's going to hit budgets hard.

Easy solution to this - remove TOCs from the definition of “public sector” - no real reason for them still to be there now that ticket revenues are back to decent levels. The concerns of the public sector as a whole are not aligned with those of the railway unions.

As for 11% - you do get this is a negotiation, don’t you? The unions won’t be expecting that - deals have been struck around the 5% mark at Scotrail and 8% at Crossrail. I expect something like that (likely to the lower end) is where most TOCs will end up. That’s roughly in accordance with current total wage growth this year so far in the wider economy, which is around 8% according to the ONS. So hardly unreasonable to expect on the railway - and of course this is less than inflation so still a pay cut in real terms!

• Tax rises from the 2023/24 fiscal year. Given that this will roll dangerously close to the next general election, its an unlikely option to be taken.
• Cutbacks in public services. Again given the looming GE, it would be a brave cabinet to announce cutbacks to fund pay rises, and of course realistically would be counterproductive. There's no point giving huge pay rises only to then cut back on the workforce & be even less able to deliver services.
• Quantitive Easing. This might seem like the easy option, just shake the magic money tree again and the problem goes away. Well sadly it doesn't, yes its been shaken many times over the last couple of years, but we are going to have to pay for that one way or another. The value of the pound is shrinking against the dollar, meaning that commodities bought in the American currency are going to be more expensive, and a lot of key ones are. I can't imagine printing more cash is going to help that one bit.

What does any of this have to do with ASLEF and TSSA? Trade unions aren’t concerned with stewardship of the wider economy - it’s not for them to decide how any particular expenditure is paid for.

Surely you understand that?

But let's just imagine one of these options are taken and its 11% pay rises are all around. What impact will that have on private sector workers? Of course they are going to start asking why they are not getting the same. Cue even more unrest and industrial action. And where employers cave in and award these rates, who do you suppose will pay for it? That's right, the customers. So prices rise even more, potentially triggering even higher rates of inflation, meaning even more claims for higher pay awards in the future, leading to even more cost. Suddenly we could find ourselves in a loop of hyper-inflation, constantly having to revalue of currency to the point where we will need a wheelbarrow full of notes just to buy a loaf of bread with cash (OK that might be the extreme conclusion, but you should hopefully get my point).

Another lesson in half baked amateur economics! Just like in the other thread, you appear to be regurgitating the bad faith government line: “we can’t give railway workers a pay rise because of inflation”, while in the meantime that same government has massively increased the state pension, is increasing the NMW and Tory leadership hopefuls are queuing up to offer billions worth of tax cuts. Any suggestions that inflationary pressure is of any concern to this government is laughable.

You really don’t understand unions do you?

Indeed!

As an ASLEF member. I pay dues for two reasons: 1 an insurance policy 2 for the union to protect Ts and Cs and prevent by standard of living from being eroded, by fighting if necessary. It really is as narrow as that. Comparisons to other industries, nurses being paid £25k, people earning a pittance in retail etc. are neither here nor there. They have their own unions to fight their corner.

 

[Dryce]

The same place TOCs make hundreds of millions for ‘managing’ the railways.

One way or another with the railway a disproportionate amount comes from the taxpayer.

As for the TOCs - I was under the impression Abellio in Scotland didn't manage to make much - they didn't seem too bothered about giving up the franchise completely to the Scottish tax payer.

If people want to use their employers' profits or dividend payouts as a justification for pay rises then maybe they ought to propose to take on the risk as well - so swap a % of their salary for a decent cut of the dividend. That way if the employer makes money they gain - and if it doesn't then they share in the pain.

Thing is most people want the benefits when it's the upside only but really don't want to take the risk and pain of the downside. Which is fair enough - as long as you don't point your finger at those who are exposed to that risk and only measure the upside.

 

[Thermal]

So far there effectively has not been a pay offer made. All that is happening is Government taking the current pot of money used for pay and saying to RMT that from that pot, we will give some of your members a notional increase, paid for by job cuts from other RMT members, whilst also syphoning some of the pot off for ourselves as efficiency savings, all whilst the real value of the pot itself is also being eroded by inflation and not being topped up. The headline offer could be 2%, 5% or 20%, but that figure is an irrelevant red herring when the total remuneration on offer still represents a cut to RMT members collectively.

Regardless of individual views on funding for the railway, I don't see how anyone could reasonably think the RMT would accept this, when their mandate is to fight for all of their members equally.

 

[Tezza1978]

My prediction as a completely unqualified wally is that eventually some sort of 5% deal is offered and accepted by RMT, providing an agreement can be reached on the redundancies and on the working pattern changes/agreements on changes in working practices.

 

[68000]

So far there effectively has not been a pay offer made. All that is happening is Government taking the current pot of money used for pay and saying to RMT that from that pot, we will give some of your members a notional increase, paid for by job cuts from other RMT members, whilst also syphoning some of the pot off for ourselves as efficiency savings, all whilst the real value of the pot itself is also being eroded by inflation and not being topped up. The headline offer could be 2%, 5% or 20%, but that figure is an irrelevant red herring when the total remuneration on offer still represents a cut to RMT members collectively.

Regardless of individual views on funding for the railway, I don't see how anyone could reasonably think the RMT would accept this, when their mandate is to fight for all of their members equally.

Network Rail have been very open with the fact that the govt are not giving them any more money and any pay rises offered to staff needs to come from the money already given to NR

 

[Bald Rick]

flat pay rises next year with a figure that will be far below inflation.

you might want to check next years independent inflation forecasts. 3% since you’re asking. In that context a 2+2% deal seems quite attractive.

some models are suggesting that inflation next year will go negative, as it did in 2009, due to falling energy prices. Would you be happy having a pay deal linked to inflation in that case?

If the offer was 4%backdated and 2% next year, then personally I'd have been happy to accept that.

For ‘General Grades’ (ie all except management) its 4% backdated and 2+2% next year.

So far there effectively has not been a pay offer made.

Yes there has, as has been widely reported.

 

[Bluejays]

For ‘General Grades’ (ie all except management) its 4% backdated and 2+2% next year.

Personally I think the +2 and any related changes would have been easier to negotiate if the government hadn't effectively ghosted the unions for so long. As I said in my opening message, if 4% this year plus 2% next year had been offered in Jan then I don't think the ballots would have happened. Maybe I'm wrong and the strikes would still be happening, but I can't see it.

 

[KM1991]

you might want to check next years independent inflation forecasts. 3% since you’re asking. In that context a 2+2% deal seems quite attractive.

some models are suggesting that inflation next year will go negative, as it did in 2009, due to falling energy prices. Would you be happy having a pay deal linked to inflation in that case?



For ‘General Grades’ (ie all except management) its 4% backdated and 2+2% next year.





Yes there has, as has been widely reported.

Ok. So CPI or 2%, whatever is higher. That should be a lock in the pay talks. Unless we all want to be in this position again come next April...

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Trade unions aren’t concerned with stewardship of the wider economy - it’s not for them to decide how any particular expenditure is paid for.

The RMT official being interviewed on tonight's 6pm news seemed to stress the need for the trades union movement as a whole to act as one.

 

[Bald Rick]

So CPI or 2%, whatever is higher.

thats having your cake and eating it!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Who is telling the truth on the matter of no compulsory redundancies? The RMT official and the Network Rail official being interviewed tonight told two different stories.

 

[Dryce]

Ok. So CPI or 2%, whatever is higher. That should be a lock in the pay talks. Unless we all want to be in this position again come next April...

Well maybe if doing that also look at the need for income to cover the payroll ... and if it is insufficient then adjust the payroll to suit by some means.

(That's what most real businesses will be doing as they face up to the economic challenges).

So maybe what the unions and employers should do is accept that (a) the amount of money from the taxpayer is finite. (b) actual passenger and freight revenue needs to cover the rest and (c) ticket and freight prices will need to rise to cover any gap and (c) if that gap is not covered because revenue drops because of raised pricing then costs including the payroll will have to be adjusted to fit.

In which case make the pay demands - have them satisfied - and ultimately answer to the customer like many of the rest of us.

 

[43066]

The RMT official being interviewed on tonight's 6pm news seemed to stress the need for the trades union movement as a whole to act as one.

Presumably that’s more from the tactical point of view, though? TUs represent a disparate bunch across many industries.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

you might want to check next years independent inflation forecasts. 3% since you’re asking. In that context a 2+2% deal seems quite attractive.

oh is that the OBR or BoE who have made a hash of their forecasts for inflation this year and are using Ukraine as a convenient cover. What you will get from the energy increase is 2nd and 3rd order effects cascading down the supply chain which will reinforce inflation for next 18mths even if energy doesn't go up anymore. I certainly feel energy prices have topped out at the current levels and unless the EU go completely nuts Russia will still make oil and gas available to EU as they need the cash and this is what will stabilise prices. However, high gas prices are baked in now for next two years and its gas prices that drive cost of electricity across Europe although the sensible Germans are rapidly getting their mothballed coal/ignite power stations back on line unlike us that took great delight in getting a politician to blow them up before the boilers were even cold.

To my mind they need to offer more like 7 +3 to move this forward along with the efficiency changes as we know the workforce will queue up for VS. Every strike day costs the govt money as fixed and unavoidable staff costs will far out run the amount of ticket revenue on a strike day. On the 27th people will just switch the days they work.

 

[Bald Rick]

Who is telling the truth on the matter of no compulsory redundancies? The RMT official and the Network Rail official being interviewed tonight told two different stories.

in Network Rail the position is clear, ie no compulsory redundancies if the offer is accepted.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Personally I think the +2 and any related changes would have been easier to negotiate if the government hadn't effectively ghosted the unions for so long. As I said in my opening message, if 4% this year plus 2% next year had been offered in Jan then I don't think the ballots would have happened. Maybe I'm wrong and the strikes would still be happening, but I can't see it.

for sure govt have badly played there hand and agree a half reasonable offer when inflation was lower than it is now may have got this sorted. Now every month it drags on the unions will be able to quote an ever higher rate till at least the autumn.

 

[43066]

Who is telling the truth on the matter of no compulsory redundancies? The RMT official and the Network Rail official being interviewed tonight told two different stories.

In fact this is a good example of a difference between the negotiating position of unions, even in the same industry. ASLEF are unlikely to be interested in guarantees of no redundancies, simply because they mean little when redundancy of drivers is virtually unheard of anyway.

Guarantees of this nature are (rightly) much more important to the RMT given the jobs their members do, especially in light of the forthcoming reform of ticket offices etc.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

oh is that the OBR or BoE who have made a hash of their forecasts for inflation this year and are using Ukraine as a convenient cover.

I feel sorry for you if you think that the conflict in Ukraine is a "convenient cover" and has no effect on many different countries with energy and food supplies being disrupted. The latest news from Sri Lanka should be a good example of the area of the world that has been so affected.

 

[Bald Rick]

oh is that the OBR or BoE who have made a hash of their forecasts for inflation this year

Published by HMT, but simply reporting the average forecasts from 32 separate institutions, mostly private, some academic. You are quite correct in that none of them forecast the war in Ukraine, but then that’s hardly surprising. To be fair they were forecasting CPI this year at 6.4% before Russia invaded Ukraine; CPI is 7.9% now so that’s not a substantial error in the circumstances.

 

[jon0844]

The BBC report says that this time GTR Thameslink will also be strike-bound - are they right on this?

Yes they had another vote last week.

Drivers won't vote to strike as they aren't due to have talks until later this year, and it would seem a little unfair to strike before at least getting one derisory offer first!

 

[dk1]

Passenger numbers and revenue are two separate things and revenue is still a long way back. Revenue is needed to fund pay rises. You can’t pay railway staff in passengers!!

Oh my God. Can you just imagine if the could what with some that we cart around

 

[Bald Rick]

Oh my God. Can you just imagine if the could what with some that we cart around

yep, GA drivers get those on the last two trains to Southend on a Friday night.