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Future of the Settle to Carlisle, Bentham and Ribble Valley lines

XAM2175

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Surely the Midland Railway had access to decades of engineering advances by the time the line was extended from Settle Junction, that were not a luxury afforded by the Lancaster and Carlisle Railway or the builders of the ECML (I must admit I am not aware of the original schemes that comprised the North Eastern Railway but I am aware that the North Western Railway is not as new and neither is the middle of the Midland Main Line around Derby)
You have access to decades of advances in brain surgery that were not afforded brain surgeons in the past. Are you today automatically a better brain surgeon than the ones working thirty years ago?

I'd genuinely love to see a Best Impressions "full on" attempt at the S&C, the West Highland or the Conwy Valley.
No, just no. The last thing I want to see is another pathetic cutesy bus-company brand trying to win hearts and minds with stupid slogans and insincere "friendliness".
 
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Neptune

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I think what I'd do is go pure clockface but then add trains like these on top. You lose the benefit of clockface if it's not consistent, so if you're going to have multiple patterns you may as well forget it entirely and plan trains for specific demands.
Yes absolutely no point if it isn’t clockface. Additionals can be thrown in at specific turning points on the S&C but on the less tourist heavy Bentham Line simple 2 hourly clockface should suffice. A regular hourly path with the same stopping pattern in either direction on the Airedale Line is the principal consideration however. There are plenty of turning points north of there for any additionals including Skipton.
 

Halifaxlad

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Yes I've seen and used the longer S&C formations, they are gratefully received. But from what I've read over on the traction section the 170s aren't all that happy on the Harrogate line, so I just wondered if longer regional runs would be more suited for them.

The 170’s are quite happy on the Harrogate line as they also work the faster runs between Sheffield & Scarborough. They would probably suffer more up the long drag at 60mph max. Lovely units but I think the 158’s are absolutely fine for this service in 3/4 car formation.

Whilst the 170s maybe happy on the Harrogate line I don't think rail commuters are, 3 car services just aren't long enough for this line. Really it ought to be operated by four car 333s like the Aire & Wharf Valley lines but now we are getting into a whole new kettle of fish!
 

Neptune

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Whilst the 170s maybe happy on the Harrogate line I don't think rail commuters are, 3 car services just aren't long enough for this line. Really it ought to be operated by four car 333s like the Aire & Wharf Valley lines but now we are getting into a whole new kettle of fish!
2 issues with that.

1) Knaresborough station would need the road crossing closing and platforms extending.
2) 333’s would be useless on the Harrogate line as it stands.

Maybe a cheaper and more realistic alternative would be 4 car 150’s at targeted busy trains if the fleet will stretch to it although from what I regularly see the Harrogate line is no busier in the pinch points than any other route around Leeds.
 

InkyScrolls

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How about this:-
  • Regular hourly departure for Carlisle/Lancaster from Leeds at xx19 (odd hours/even hours respectively)
  • Last through services at 2019 to Lancaster and 2119 to Carlisle
  • Bi-hourly departures from Lancaster/Carlisle to Leeds, starting at 0646 from Lancaster and 0456 from Carlisle, which would give 0836 and 0736 arrivals in Leeds respectively.
  • The final southbound services depart Lancaster at 2246 and Carlisle at 2056
  • All the above services call at all stations north of Skipton, plus Keighley-Bingley-Shipley.
  • The first departure to, and last arrival from Lancaster originate and terminate at Skipton, at 0457 and 2356 (to avoid an excessively early start for what would be the 0419 from Leeds, and to provide the unit for the following day)
  • An additional late service at 2256 from Carlisle to Appleby, all stops, arriving at 2338. ECS back to Carlisle for 0025
  • An additional morning peak service for Settle departing ECS from Skipton at 0625, turn at Blea Moor c. 0657, and departing Settle in service at 0723. This would run SET-HLD-SKI-KEI-BIY-SHY-LDS, arriving at 0820, which would allow it to run ahead of the service from Lancaster due into Leeds at 0836
The main disadvantage of this is there being an odd number of unit movements (the extra Settle morning service requiring a unit to move from Skipton to Leeds) but this could be dealt with through attaching the extra two-car 158 to the rear of the 2019 LDS to LAN, to be detached at SKI (for example).
 

YorksLad12

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Yes absolutely no point if it isn’t clockface. Additionals can be thrown in at specific turning points on the S&C but on the less tourist heavy Bentham Line simple 2 hourly clockface should suffice. A regular hourly path with the same stopping pattern in either direction on the Airedale Line is the principal consideration however. There are plenty of turning points north of there for any additionals including Skipton.
I thought I said that... :lol:

How about this:-
  • Regular hourly departure for Carlisle/Lancaster from Leeds at xx19 (odd hours/even hours respectively)
  • Last through services at 2019 to Lancaster and 2119 to Carlisle
  • Bi-hourly departures from Lancaster/Carlisle to Leeds, starting at 0646 from Lancaster and 0456 from Carlisle, which would give 0836 and 0736 arrivals in Leeds respectively.
  • The final southbound services depart Lancaster at 2246 and Carlisle at 2056
  • All the above services call at all stations north of Skipton, plus Keighley-Bingley-Shipley.
  • The first departure to, and last arrival from Lancaster originate and terminate at Skipton, at 0457 and 2356 (to avoid an excessively early start for what would be the 0419 from Leeds, and to provide the unit for the following day)
  • An additional late service at 2256 from Carlisle to Appleby, all stops, arriving at 2338. ECS back to Carlisle for 0025
  • An additional morning peak service for Settle departing ECS from Skipton at 0625, turn at Blea Moor c. 0657, and departing Settle in service at 0723. This would run SET-HLD-SKI-KEI-BIY-SHY-LDS, arriving at 0820, which would allow it to run ahead of the service from Lancaster due into Leeds at 0836
The main disadvantage of this is there being an odd number of unit movements (the extra Settle morning service requiring a unit to move from Skipton to Leeds) but this could be dealt with through attaching the extra two-car 158 to the rear of the 2019 LDS to LAN, to be detached at SKI (for example).
Good summary, thanks. But I think I prefered your first version - didn't that take most of the peak flows into account, so we're not ferrying empty seats north from Leeds in the afternoon? And if we could reinstate the bay platform at Hellifield we could even keep the Other Lot happy as there would be plenty of services for them to connect with <(
 

70014IronDuke

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I think the idea is that it would save time for the inhabitants of Penrith, were they wishing to travel towards Skipton/Leeds, if they were to travel via the S&C rather than down the WCML, changing at Lancaster for the FoBL.

Yes. That is certainly part of it, but I didn't explain my ideal vision for services.

If this were Germany or Switzerland, I believe we would have perhaps 3-4 limited stop trains daily between Carlisle and Leeds, and connecting with these we would have an AlstonStadt - Langwathby am Eden - Penrith fur der See - Keswick SeeStadt (and possibly on to Workington or Whitehaven) limted-stop bus service.
 

InkyScrolls

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I thought I said that... :lol:


Good summary, thanks. But I think I prefered your first version - didn't that take most of the peak flows into account, so we're not ferrying empty seats north from Leeds in the afternoon? And if we could reinstate the bay platform at Hellifield we could even keep the Other Lot happy as there would be plenty of services for them to connect with <(
That seems to me the main issue; unless you have an hourly service (half-hourly from Leeds) you can't have both a clockface timetable and cater perfectly to peak traffic flows.

As for the other lot - Hellifield comes under the aegis of Preston ROC, so they can sort that headache themselves!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Yes. That is certainly part of it, but I didn't explain my ideal vision for services.

If this were Germany or Switzerland, I believe we would have perhaps 3-4 limited stop trains daily between Carlisle and Leeds, and connecting with these we would have an AlstonStadt - Langwathby am Eden - Penrith fur der See - Keswick SeeStadt (and possibly on to Workington or Whitehaven) limted-stop bus service.
An interconnected transport network? You must be barking!
 

Bletchleyite

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I thought I said that... :lol:


Good summary, thanks. But I think I prefered your first version - didn't that take most of the peak flows into account, so we're not ferrying empty seats north from Leeds in the afternoon? And if we could reinstate the bay platform at Hellifield we could even keep the Other Lot happy as there would be plenty of services for them to connect with <(

By their nature clockface timetables do involve running a bit of overcapacity to maintain the pattern. But if moving away from it you might as well abandon it entirely and plan specific trains and connections for specific needs. Clockface only works as a memorable thing if it is consistent, because if even one train is off pattern (other than very early or very late in the day when people check anyway) you then have to check every time.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Yes. That is certainly part of it, but I didn't explain my ideal vision for services.

If this were Germany or Switzerland, I believe we would have perhaps 3-4 limited stop trains daily between Carlisle and Leeds, and connecting with these we would have an AlstonStadt - Langwathby am Eden - Penrith fur der See - Keswick SeeStadt (and possibly on to Workington or Whitehaven) limted-stop bus service.

To be fair Keswick is actually very well integrated, the bus stops directly outside Penrith station. Oh to have it through ticketed, included in connection protection and in the planners.

Ambleside too.
 

InkyScrolls

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By their nature clockface timetables do involve running a bit of overcapacity to maintain the pattern. But if moving away from it you might as well abandon it entirely and plan specific trains and connections for specific needs. Clockface only works as a memorable thing if it is consistent, because if even one train is off pattern (other than very early or very late in the day when people check anyway) you then have to check every time.
A good example is the one service from Leeds to Forster Square, which run at xx12 and xx42 with no exceptions, save one which leaves at xx43, and another which randomly doesn't call at Kirkstall.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

By their nature clockface timetables do involve running a bit of overcapacity to maintain the pattern.
And from personal experience most trains on the S&C seem reasonably well loaded, save the very first and last; ditto with the FoBL.
 

Bletchleyite

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A good example is the one service from Leeds to Forster Square, which run at xx12 and xx42 with no exceptions, save one which leaves at xx43, and another which randomly doesn't call at Kirkstall.

I suppose one randomly going a bit later is less of a problem, unless it's enough to muck a connection up, but missing one or running one earlier is.
 

InkyScrolls

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I suppose one randomly going a bit later is less of a problem, unless it's enough to muck a connection up, but missing one or running one earlier is.
I believe it's still the case - it certainly was until recently - that the expected 1656 Leeds to Skipton didn't exist (leaving at xx26 and xx56 throughout the day). Furthermore, the next all-stops departure towards Skipton is at 1719, not at 1726, with actually does exist but runs through to Morecambe, and doesn't call at all stations before Skipton.
 

YorksLad12

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I believe it's still the case - it certainly was until recently - that the expected 1656 Leeds to Skipton didn't exist (leaving at xx26 and xx56 throughout the day). Furthermore, the next all-stops departure towards Skipton is at 1719, not at 1726, with actually does exist but runs through to Morecambe, and doesn't call at all stations before Skipton.
Slightly off topic: Leeds to London leaves at xx15 and xx45, London to Leeds at xx03 and xx33, including in the peaks. The proposed East Coast timetable would have changed the departure times in the evening peak so that they would have been all over the place. Yonks ago, one of the things West Yorkshire PTE pushed for was consistent departure times and a clockface pattern, they way they are on buses. When we had buses. Them were t'days.
 

The Planner

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A good example is the one service from Leeds to Forster Square, which run at xx12 and xx42 with no exceptions, save one which leaves at xx43,
That is a weird way of doing it, might as well just public time it as xx.42.
 

Bantamzen

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I suppose one randomly going a bit later is less of a problem, unless it's enough to muck a connection up, but missing one or running one earlier is.
The opening of Kirkstall Forge and the move to a xx:12 / xx:42 (they were previously xx:08 / xx:38) departure of the Leeds - Bradford FS broke most of my handy connections at Shipley for the service up to Ilkley that I get home. It was always a little tight, and wouldn't have appeared on journey planners, but I usually had a good couple of minutes to sprint up the stairs from P4 and down to P3 to get my connection. Now the Forster Square bound service rolls in about 5 minutes after the Ilkley has tootled off towards Baildon. :'(

Still it gives me 25 minutes to bolt over the road to pick up supplies from Aldi if I need them, assuming of course I don't get stuck in the queue behind someone who doesn't understand the packing protocols they like customers to use! :D
 

paul1609

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Close and busitute both lines as part of a reduce the Northern Subsidy strategy.
 

paul1609

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Yay, @daodao has got a Serpell colleague! :D
Not really Serpell only wanted an intercity core remaining. I only want to close the financially basket case lines and support reopening of stuff such as the Northumberland Line. An integrated Electric bus service Skipton to Penrith via Appleby would actually serve tourist hotpots like Hawes rather than passing them by.
 

Bletchleyite

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Not really Serpell only wanted an intercity core remaining. I only want to close the financially basket case lines and support reopening of stuff such as the Northumberland Line. An integrated Electric bus service Skipton to Penrith via Appleby would actually serve tourist hotpots like Hawes rather than passing them by.

Until there is substantial legislative change integrated bus services aren't a thing, so as such I can't support any rail closure other than ones (like Heysham) that serve a very niche single purpose where the company providing that purpose can deal with it (i.e. a ferry integrated bus) and where it gets in the way of something else (e.g. a half hourly clockface Lancaster-Morecambe).

As a comparison I've said I'd support, with proper integration, closure of the Conwy Valley and conversion to a cycle path. But that integration isn't even forthcoming in a country where most bus services are tendered and thus already de-facto regulated.

It's also far too easy to get rid of bus services. Plus the S&C is a bit different as, as stated upthread, it wouldn't be closed entirely because it's needed for freight to free up WCML paths for HS2 services. Bentham has a weaker case but it's quite short and doesn't use much in the way of resources.
 
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InkyScrolls

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It's also far too easy to get rid of bus services. Plus the S&C is a bit different as, as stated upthread, it wouldn't be closed entirely because it's needed for freight to free up WCML paths for HS2 services. Bentham has a weaker case but it's quite short and doesn't use much in the way of resources.
Virtually no resources - Carnforth Station Jct. to Settle Jct., at 24 miles, is the longest signal section in the UK; aside from maintenance the line has no manpower usage.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

The opening of Kirkstall Forge and the move to a xx:12 / xx:42 (they were previously xx:08 / xx:38) departure of the Leeds - Bradford FS broke most of my handy connections at Shipley for the service up to Ilkley that I get home. It was always a little tight, and wouldn't have appeared on journey planners, but I usually had a good couple of minutes to sprint up the stairs from P4 and down to P3 to get my connection. Now the Forster Square bound service rolls in about 5 minutes after the Ilkley has tootled off towards Baildon. :'(

Still it gives me 25 minutes to bolt over the road to pick up supplies from Aldi if I need them, assuming of course I don't get stuck in the queue behind someone who doesn't understand the packing protocols they like customers to use! :D
Interesting that the times got later rather than earlier - each stations adds 2 mins to the overall journey time, so I would've expected an xx08 departure to become xx04. Though I suppose that would be too close to the xx03 of the Ilkley departures (unless they stopped at Kirkstall as well, in which case they could become xx01. . . so many options!).
 

The Planner

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Not really Serpell only wanted an intercity core remaining. I only want to close the financially basket case lines and support reopening of stuff such as the Northumberland Line. An integrated Electric bus service Skipton to Penrith via Appleby would actually serve tourist hotpots like Hawes rather than passing them by.
What are the financial basket cases, and what are you basing the assumptions on?
 

Bletchleyite

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What are the financial basket cases, and what are you basing the assumptions on?

FWIW the two worst I believe have long been:

1. Island Line (yes, a bit obvious, so let's disregard it for now - its continued existence is pretty much 100% political)
2. Merseyrail

I don't think anyone with half a brain in 2022* would suggest closing Merseyrail down, though they might suggest how it could be destaffed a bit to reduce the cost so it is more like Metrolink which makes an operating surplus (I believe).

Little branch lines with one train going up and down cost very little unless you've got a lot of e.g. staffed crossings. Probably not a lot more than putting a bus on, particularly as the bus will often take longer (e.g. a bus on Ormskirk-Preston takes roughly twice as long as the train, so the same frequency needs twice as many buses as trains).

* Serpell did, as I believe Beeching did for the Wirral Lines at least, but that was when the car was the future.
 

InkyScrolls

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Not really Serpell only wanted an intercity core remaining. I only want to close the financially basket case lines and support reopening of stuff such as the Northumberland Line. An integrated Electric bus service Skipton to Penrith via Appleby would actually serve tourist hotpots like Hawes rather than passing them by.
I'm not sure the S&C could be considered a financial basket case - have you ever travelled on it in Summer? In Winter, yeah, sure, it probably operates at a loss. But the rest of the year easily makes up for it. It's not unusual for a conductor to take £200-£400 in ticket fares on a return trip from Carlisle to Skipton in Spring/Summer.

If one assumes ~31p per vehicle per mile in access charges (see this document), assume an average of three carriages per service, a total mileage of approx. ~85 miles Skipton to Carlisle, then each return trip will cost in the region of £158 in track access. Add to this the ~4 hours of pay for driver (~£120) and conductor (~£64) for a total of ~£340. 158s do (very roughly!) 2 mpg, giving 85 gl for a round trip. At current red diesel prices of approx. 97p per litre this costs ~£370 in diesel to get from Skipton to Carlisle and back. In total, for Northern to run an average return trip along the S&C (including Settle - Skipton), it will cost in the region of £710.

(Take all of this with a Lot's-wife of salt; Enrico Fermi would be proud!)

From personal experience, and as stated above, I would expect to take between £200 to £400 on such a round trip. This is in addition to the ticket revenue from the vast majority of passengers who buy before they board, who are often travelling quite long distances (Glasgow Central to Leeds is a common one), or the many prebooked parties, often of up to thirty or forty people. As I say, this is purely anecdotal, but based on the above estimations it would appear that referring to the S&C as 'a financial basket case' is rather misguided.
 

RT4038

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I'm not sure the S&C could be considered a financial basket case - have you ever travelled on it in Summer? In Winter, yeah, sure, it probably operates at a loss. But the rest of the year easily makes up for it. It's not unusual for a conductor to take £200-£400 in ticket fares on a return trip from Carlisle to Skipton in Spring/Summer.

If one assumes ~31p per vehicle per mile in access charges (see this document), assume an average of three carriages per service, a total mileage of approx. ~85 miles Skipton to Carlisle, then each return trip will cost in the region of £158 in track access. Add to this the ~4 hours of pay for driver (~£120) and conductor (~£64) for a total of ~£340. 158s do (very roughly!) 2 mpg, giving 85 gl for a round trip. At current red diesel prices of approx. 97p per litre this costs ~£370 in diesel to get from Skipton to Carlisle and back. In total, for Northern to run an average return trip along the S&C (including Settle - Skipton), it will cost in the region of £710.

(Take all of this with a Lot's-wife of salt; Enrico Fermi would be proud!)

From personal experience, and as stated above, I would expect to take between £200 to £400 on such a round trip. This is in addition to the ticket revenue from the vast majority of passengers who buy before they board, who are often travelling quite long distances (Glasgow Central to Leeds is a common one), or the many prebooked parties, often of up to thirty or forty people. As I say, this is purely anecdotal, but based on the above estimations it would appear that referring to the S&C as 'a financial basket case' is rather misguided.
You are making an assumption that the track access charge is covering the cost of providing this track, which I believe is by no means the case. The trains also have to be leased, and maintained of course, and someone has to manage all of this, and up and up go the costs, way, way above your £710.
 

InkyScrolls

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You are making an assumption that the track access charge is covering the cost of providing this track, which I believe is by no means the case. The trains also have to be leased, and maintained of course, and someone has to manage all of this, and up and up go the costs, way, way above your £710.
Yes but those costs would remain regardless of whether the unit was used on the S&C or not - management, leasing and maintenance are hardly likely to go down significantly if eight trains were removed from the entire Northern network.
 

RT4038

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Yes but those costs would remain regardless of whether the unit was used on the S&C or not - management, leasing and maintenance are hardly likely to go down significantly if eight trains were removed from the entire Northern network.
The leasing and maintenance cost of eight trains to start with! Management/supervision may or may not change significantly depending on how close to thresholds they are currently. These costs have to be taken into account when deciding whether a line is profitable or not. You have no comment on the track access charge deficit to costs.

I'm not sure the S&C could be considered a financial basket case - have you ever travelled on it in Summer? In Winter, yeah, sure, it probably operates at a loss. But the rest of the year easily makes up for it. It's not unusual for a conductor to take £200-£400 in ticket fares on a return trip from Carlisle to Skipton in Spring/Summer.
Even in Summer, there are a number of trains with few passengers on. (5h15 Leeds to Carlisle for instance, and various others?) Some trains are well loaded, but it is a mistake to think that some full (relatively low capacity) trains over the high 12 weeks will make up for the six months of poor loadings September/October-March/April.
 

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You are making an assumption that the track access charge is covering the cost of providing this track, which I believe is by no means the case. The trains also have to be leased, and maintained of course, and someone has to manage all of this, and up and up go the costs, way, way above your £710.

As has been confirmed upthread the S&C is a key part of the post HS2 freight plan, so withdrawing the passenger service would only save the cost of operating the passenger service, not the cost of the track.

It's a bit like Morecambe-Heysham could well be profitable despite low usage as the infrastructure can't be lifted as it's required for the nuclear trains.
 

InkyScrolls

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The leasing and maintenance cost of eight trains to start with! Management/supervision may or may not change significantly depending on how close to thresholds they are currently. These costs have to be taken into account when deciding whether a line is profitable or not. You have no comment on the track access charge deficit to costs.


Even in Summer, there are a number of trains with few passengers on. (5h15 Leeds to Carlisle for instance, and various others?) Some trains are well loaded, but it is a mistake to think that some full (relatively low capacity) trains over the high 12 weeks will make up for the six months of poor loadings September/October-March/April.
I'm aware that £710 is an underestimate, but the point I was trying to make still stands - that to refer to the S&C as a 'basket case' is something of a fallacy.
 

Verulamius

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There three basic directions which freight can access the S&C from the south.

Leeds - through the station or across the throat from the Castleford line.

Manchester - through Piccadilly or Victoria

WCML - turn right after Wigan.

Any HS2 plans are probably looking at the last option?
 

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