Food rationing - will it return?

[deltic]

The last 12 months have seen global food markets under severe pressure leading to increased prices for virtually all foods.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine saw wheat prices double and shortages of sunflower oil
Droughts have played havoc with crops in Europe and China with yields down
Floods have just destroyed huge amounts of crops in Pakistan leading to the need for imported food aid - which is also growing in some African countries due both of conflicts and climate change.

Increasing unpredictability in the weather is impacting on agriculture in most parts of the world while at the same time global demand for meat which is land intensive continues to rise.

We also see agricultural land being used to grow crops for fuel rather than food.

Will we reach a stage where food has to be rationed or will we need to change our habits to return to eating foods when they are in season rather than expecting the same products to be available all year round?

 

[Snow1964]

Very unlikely, but UK has imported some of its food for at least 150 years, initially from the colonies.

However I suspect price will change the selection that is commonly eaten.

There is a more immediate problem that some crops cannot be grown in very dry weather, and yields are down in parts of the country.

The days of real poverty of 100 years ago where children were out on the street in torn clothes and no shoes are no longer with us fortunately. Although the way some people speak about no money whilst being interviewed in their lounge with a 60 inch tv in background makes you wonder.

 

[DelayRepay]

I don't think we'll see rationing return in the sense that it existed during the war, where even the King had a ration book. For one, even if there were severe shortages I don't think our government would do anything, they'd leave it to the supermarkets to deal with. If they did try to take control of food supplies, I think they'd make things worse rather than better.

Supermarkets rationing certain items to a maximum per customer might become more of a thing, like they did during Covid and when we had shortages of cooking oil due to the Ukraine situation.

But most rationing will be by price - prices will rise and people who cannot afford them will have to make do with cheaper food and smaller meals.

If there are serious shortages, then, a bit like energy, people need to make more of an effort to avoid waste (and this applies to businesses as much as individuals). I think we waste a huge amount of perfectly good food in this country. And people will need to be more flexible about what they eat. If there's a shortage of meat, then they might need to have more veggie meals. If there's a shortage of certain types of veg, then they'll have to substitute it with others.

I think we will see a surge in growing your own by people with space to do so. I grow a few bits of veg in the garden, more for a hobby than because I'm worried about the availability of produce or to save cash. If things get bad maybe I'll be able to barter some of my carrots for some onions to provide a bit of variety!

 

[Busaholic]

I don't think we'll see rationing return in the sense that it existed during the war, where even the King had a ration book. For one, even if there were severe shortages I don't think our government would do anything, they'd leave it to the supermarkets to deal with. If they did try to take control of food supplies, I think they'd make things worse rather than better.

I don't think so either, if for no other reason than it would take so long to set up and would be an ineffective, chaotic mess from the beginning, whoever administered it. I remember ration books (just!) and my problems with chocolate I'm pretty sure date from it being rationed when I was a nipper.We'll muddle through, it's not as though we have a government capable of anything other than retaining power for itself.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Another vote for no. However, we may find shortages in particular product lines (as it was in early COVID times) and supermarkets may unilaterally choose to limit purchase quantities of certain lines.

 

[Gloster]

If there is rationing, I suspect it will be at distribution level: wholesalers saying that they will only be supplying xy% of the normal quantities across the board. Of course, the problem is that information would be leaked and there would be panic buying and hoarding. Ideally, the government would take a minimal supervisory role, just enough to ensure that this is done equably. However, they are likely to be unwilling to so, would make a mess of it if they did and would probably be far too open to influence. (“It is vital that shops in my Surrey constituency receive their full normal order of Twiglets, rather than ghastly unwashed proles in the North get luxuries such as bread.”)

 

[birchesgreen]

Yes it will return, it will make a lot of people very happy as they can live out their fantasies OF BEING IN THE WAR.

Well for about five minutes anyway, once they realise how much it actually sucks.

 

[DelayRepay]

Yes it will return, it will make a lot of people very happy as they can live out their fantasies OF BEING IN THE WAR.

There are certain supermarket staff who will be getting very excited about the possibility. I mean the ones who enjoyed wearing a hi-viz jacket and getting to boss people about during the Covid queue outside era.

 

[birchesgreen]

There are certain supermarket staff who will be getting very excited about the possibility. I mean the ones who enjoyed wearing a hi-viz jacket and getting to boss people about during the Covid queue outside era.

Yeah itching to taser Grannie for taking two cobs from the bakery aisle.

 

[tomuk]

No. What is it with all the doom mongers?

 

[deltic]

No. What is it with all the doom mongers?

Climate change is having a material impact on agricultural production - we have seen supermarkets introducing open rationing (limiting the number of items you can buy which is pointless as those who want to stockpile just make more trips) and hidden rationing (reducing the range of items available). While factory/vertical farming is slowly being introduced for crops such as herbs, producing food in controlled conditions thereby increasing yields and reducing consumption of water and pesticides it is difficult to see grain being grown like this.

It is likely that droughts and floods will become more frequent around the world, increasing conflicts and further reducing food supplies. Unless huge investment is made in high tech irrigation like the Israelis have done we will see increasing pressure on food supplies and more countries restricting exports as India has done on a number of occasions recently.

Certainly food security like energy security now will become a bigger issue in the future.

 

[tomuk]

Climate change is having a material impact on agricultural production - we have seen supermarkets introducing open rationing (limiting the number of items you can buy which is pointless as those who want to stockpile just make more trips) and hidden rationing (reducing the range of items available). While factory/vertical farming is slowly being introduced for crops such as herbs, producing food in controlled conditions thereby increasing yields and reducing consumption of water and pesticides it is difficult to see grain being grown like this.

It is likely that droughts and floods will become more frequent around the world, increasing conflicts and further reducing food supplies. Unless huge investment is made in high tech irrigation like the Israelis have done we will see increasing pressure on food supplies and more countries restricting exports as India has done on a number of occasions recently.

Certainly food security like energy security now will become a bigger issue in the future.

As I said doom mongers.

 

[SuspectUsual]

There are certain supermarket staff who will be getting very excited about the possibility. I mean the ones who enjoyed wearing a hi-viz jacket and getting to boss people about during the Covid queue outside era

And the other 95% will be dreading having to deal with a potentially inflammatory situation. Violence against shopworkers is still increasing and stuff like this will make it worse

 

[TheEdge]

As I said doom mongers.

You can't just bury your head in the sand at anything you don't like and call everyone doom mongers.

it doesn't matter how good modern farming is but if we see more weather like we have this summer yields will drop, plants need water. We are yet to really see the full impact of increased costs of energy and fertilizer on this years crop but we will next year.

 

[tomuk]

You can't just bury your head in the sand at anything you don't like and call everyone doom mongers.

it doesn't matter how good modern farming is but if we see more weather like we have this summer yields will drop, plants need water. We are yet to really see the full impact of increased costs of energy and fertilizer on this years crop but we will next year.

I haven't got my head in the sand it is just nonsense to think that rationing will be introduced.

 

[Bevan Price]

I haven't got my head in the sand it is just nonsense to think that rationing will be introduced.

It will more likely be "informal rationing" where only the affluent can afford some kinds of food that are currently affordable by most people.
And it will not be helped by councils permitting - sometimes encouraging - use of top quality agricultural land for house building.

 

[Techniquest]

I haven't got my head in the sand it is just nonsense to think that rationing will be introduced.

I have to agree, it would not make any difference. Limiting amounts of things one person can buy doesn't really work either, there's too many people out there who don't stick to said rule when it does apply so it's effectively pointless.

Besides, those suggesting there will be staff in the shops enforcing any such 'rationing' need to realise that actually, no that wouldn't happen. There's no longer enough staff to do the work required, every shop has stripped hours out left right and centre, shelves can be left empty for days at a time as a result. The stock is often in the shop, with just no-one to put it out!

My point is that I'm agreeing with you @tomuk that rationing is not going to happen. There are indeed going to be issues with food supplies in the coming years if we're not careful, but then that is at least partly because of society needing to change. When even a pandemic cannot bring society to make a permanent and good change, then one has to weep for humanity!

 

[Bletchleyite]

And it will not be helped by councils permitting - sometimes encouraging - use of top quality agricultural land for house building.

There's also a housing crisis.

 

[JonathanH]

The interesting question is whether we will have to use rationing to bring about the reduction in meat consumption argued to be necessary to combat climate change whereby it is only possible to eat it once a week, for example. Price measures are not going to work on their own.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The interesting question is whether we will have to use rationing to bring about the reduction in meat consumption argued to be necessary to combat climate change whereby it is only possible to eat it once a week, for example.

Rationing will not be introduced for that, no.

Price measures are not going to work on their own.

I think they would. If a steak was £50 you aren't going to have one very often.

There is also great potential in lab-grown meat.

 

[JonathanH]

I think they would. If a steak was £50 you aren't going to have one very often.

I dont think the price of prime steak is the consideration. Price just means that it is less affordable to less affluent people. Rationing means that those who can afford more are also limited in their consumption.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Price just means that it is less affordable to less affluent people. Rationing means that those who can afford more are also limited in their consumption.

It still achieves the objective of reducing consumption.

 

[Freightmaster]

I haven't got my head in the sand it is just nonsense to think that rationing will be introduced.

RemindMe! One year...






MARK

 

[ainsworth74]

It will more likely be "informal rationing" where only the affluent can afford some kinds of food that are currently affordable by most people.

Agreed, I can't see the Government introducing rationing. At least not this winter or in the next few years anyway. I hesitate to say "ever" after the last few years! But I absolutely do think we'll see people self-rationing. Buying less food and/or different lower quality food in response to rising food prices. For us in the UK that probably means some people will struggle to feed themselves and or their family but we won't be into famine territory as there will be enough food just not enough money to buy it.

But government issue ration books or supermarkets being mandated to place restrictions on what they can sell? I can't see it happening in the near future.

And it will not be helped by councils permitting - sometimes encouraging - use of top quality agricultural land for house building.

I actually think the bigger issue is the Government is increasingly making it more cost effective for farmers to leave their fields fallow or to even remove them from use full stop for crop growing or animal raising through rewilding schemes and similar. It does seem slightly odd that the Government is encouraging farmers to not, er, farm but that appears to be where we're at. But certainly I can think of places that were fields being used for crops that have since been turned into housing (though as @Bletchleyite notes we do also have a housing crisis so we have to build homes somewhere!).

 

[DarloRich]

Rationing by price perhaps - rationing by card as the angry 1940's cosplayers seem to want? Doubtful.