Despite the government's announcement, should HS2 be cancelled?

[Bletchleyite]

I don’t disagree that going as left as some of his policies suggest at face value are a no no. However, if you read in depth then his key argument is that the UK has not created money for 40 years or more for normal domestic policy (austerity and poverty rule), yet there’s no hesitation when COVID, banks or pension funds come calling.

And that's exactly how it should be. QE is for dire emergencies. COVID or a potential banking collapse are existential crises. Building a fancy railway line isn't.

The idea of using QE for normal domestic policy is, unsurprisingly, a typical left wing "magic money tree" thing.

If we want better public services, more tax is how you do it, including closing loopholes exploited by big business. A wealth tax is also worthy of consideration.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Nov 2022 ==

Tony Blair was terrible 'we got it wrong on immigration' and 'we didn't know how many were going to come' was a huge contributor to the Brexit vote and the Cameron Osboune austerity failing to invest in the country's future broke down trust more if it couldn't be broken enough anyway. Nick Clegg's countless lies adding to that. Yeah, centrist pragmatists are free of dragons... They are liars just as much as the hard left and right except they have an excuse to flip flop from left to right because they are close to the centre.

Taking left wing policies when they make sense and right wing policies when those make sense are a key tenet of centrism and why it is the best way. Pragmatism always beats ideology, and your post simply demonstrates the counterproductive hate for centrism that pervades the 2020s' politics.

 

[Trainbike46]

And that's exactly how it should be. QE is for dire emergencies. COVID or a potential banking collapse are existential crises. Building a fancy railway line isn't.

The idea of using QE for normal domestic policy is, unsurprisingly, a typical left wing "magic money tree" thing.

Funny how you can call the magic money tree a left wing idea, when it was the VERY right wing Truss and Kwarteng who actually tried to use it for their bat**** crazy idea.

Labour does economic modelling of its manifesto, the conservatives don't. To me it truly seems as if, in the UK at least, the left (labour) is more responsible than the right (conservatives)

If we want better public services, more tax is how you do it, including closing loopholes exploited by big business. A wealth tax is also worthy of consideration.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Nov 2022 ==

I fully agree more tax is the way forward here

Taking left wing policies when they make sense and right wing policies when those make sense are a key tenet of centrism and why it is the best way. Pragmatism always beats ideology, and your post simply demonstrates the counterproductive hate for centrism that pervades the 2020s' politics.

Having a view of what society should be like seems to me quite an essential part of politics... And that is generally where most (but not all) centrists fall down. The fact that they don't seem to believe in anything makes them come across as untrustworthy


Though all this is of course massively off-topic by now

 

[Taunton]

Yer wot? Avanti have not reduced the seat spacing in any stock

OK, maybe they have not altered seats. But they have reduced conditions inside their services to something like the Central Line in the rush hour.

I wonder what we should expect of the HS2 trains. Less than an hour London to Birmingham? OK, 3+2 seating then.

 

[Xavi]

And that's exactly how it should be. QE is for dire emergencies. COVID or a potential banking collapse are existential crises. Building a fancy railway line isn't.

I don’t disagree about ‘emergencies’, however, this thread is about cancelling HS2 and doing so WON’T make any difference to the Treasury position. In fact, in a time of recession it would have the opposite effect in the short term as well as long term.

 

[Trainbike46]

OK, maybe they have not altered seats. But they have reduced conditions inside their services to something like the Central Line in the rush hour.

I wonder what we should expect of the HS2 trains. Less than an hour London to Birmingham? OK, 3+2 seating then.

The classic compatible trains, which is all that is being bought for now, will continue to Glasgow and Edinburgh, so should be set up for journeys that long.

And even with a Eurostar-like interior, you could fit around 750 seats in a classic compatible 400 meter train, or 900 in one of the future captive sets, compared to 589 in an 11-car pendolino. And of course, you would probably want to do more standard class compared to eurostar, increasing seat numbers even more

And of course a lot of the capacity gains are in more trains anyway. So no need for 3+2 seating

 

[Xavi]

Thankfully, the likelihood of HS2 getting the chop must be reduced by this excellent decision today. From what I’ve heard so far from Mark Harper, I think he gets it - you need infrastructure investment to prosper.

Portishead to Bristol rail line gets final approval https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-63633295

 

[Watershed]

the second Birmingham path (same, that runs but terminates at Crewe leaving the path beyond Crewe unused).

I think you might be getting confused between the Birmingham-Crewe service, which was introduced when the Crewe-Euston semifast was re-routed to avoid the Stoke 'wobble', and the former second Birmingham-Liverpool service. The two did, very briefly, coexist and the WCML recast in December still leaves room for the second Birmingham-Liverpool service to be reintroduced.

 

[Grimsby town]

Obviously most people have good knowledge about the rail network on here but I think there's a tendancy from some enthusiasts to over estimate how much they know about travel in general. Take the leisure travel comments earlier in this thread. Leisure travel is a broad category but the largest component of it is visiting friends and family. Clearly there are going to be a lot more of these journeys between London and other major cities than small towns/villages because far more people live there and therefore there are more potential people to visit. A lot of people who don't know that much about transport often assume leisure travel is a trip to Blackpool or Skegness. However the largest holiday trip type in the UK is city breaks closely followed by beach holidays.

Another issue I have is saying people can work trains easily. Even with good wifi, there's no way I'd be as productive on a train as at home or in the office where I have extra monitors. With the size of my laptop, which I need for large datasources, I can't work well on a train unless i'm on an empty table seat so I'm limited to checking emails or writing reports. My partner can't work on the train at all due to security clearance. I'm sure an opinion journalist can be just as productive on a train with their chromebook but most jobs need more than just a word document open.

Rail investments in large cities is clearly the best use of resources. Its unlikely that we'll find a replacement for HSR or intra city mass transit anytime soon, whereas rural lines are clearly threatened by things like driverless cars/demand responsive bus services. Scrapping HS2 means the loss of a decade direct work by proffesionals. It means reduced investment in rail for the next 5+ years as there aren't other large schemes resources could be utilised on (NPR is still underdevelopment, no detailed plans for tram systems in Leeds, no shovel ready plans for ECML upgrade). Not only that we'll have to rewrite and model dozens of city/town regeneration and tranport strategies that have been developed on the basis HS2 is happening.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Thankfully, the likelihood of HS2 getting the chop must be reduced by this excellent decision today. From what I’ve heard so far from Mark Harper, I think he gets it - you need infrastructure investment to prosper.

Portishead to Bristol rail line gets final approval https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-63633295

That's a good demonstration of what benefit can be had for a lot less money. £152m is small change compared to the cost of HS2 or Crossrail.

 

[irish_rail]

Obviously most people have good knowledge about the rail network on here but I think there's a tendancy from some enthusiasts to over estimate how much they know about travel in general. Take the leisure travel comments earlier in this thread. Leisure travel is a broad category but the largest component of it is visiting friends and family. Clearly there are going to be a lot more of these journeys between London and other major cities than small towns/villages because far more people live there and therefore there are more potential people to visit. A lot of people who don't know that much about transport often assume leisure travel is a trip to Blackpool or Skegness. However the largest holiday trip type in the UK is city breaks closely followed by beach holidays.

Another issue I have is saying people can work trains easily. Even with good wifi, there's no way I'd be as productive on a train as at home or in the office where I have extra monitors. With the size of my laptop, which I need for large datasources, I can't work well on a train unless i'm on an empty table seat so I'm limited to checking emails or writing reports. My partner can't work on the train at all due to security clearance. I'm sure an opinion journalist can be just as productive on a train with their chromebook but most jobs need more than just a word document open.

Rail investments in large cities is clearly the best use of resources. Its unlikely that we'll find a replacement for HSR or intra city mass transit anytime soon, whereas rural lines are clearly threatened by things like driverless cars/demand responsive bus services. Scrapping HS2 means the loss of a decade direct work by proffesionals. It means reduced investment in rail for the next 5+ years as there aren't other large schemes resources could be utilised on (NPR is still underdevelopment, no detailed plans for tram systems in Leeds, no shovel ready plans for ECML upgrade). Not only that we'll have to rewrite and model dozens of city/town regeneration and tranport strategies that have been developed on the basis HS2 is happening.

You are quite correct but what this type of leisure traveller wants is the cheapest ticket possible and preferably a direct train. This type of leisure traveller cares less for speed or premium rate services. Hence my comments about getting XC right before we worry about HS2.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You are quite correct but what this type of leisure traveller wants is the cheapest ticket possible and preferably a direct train. This type of leisure traveller cares less for speed or premium rate services. Hence my comments about getting XC right before we worry about HS2.

XC and HS2 do different things, though this does back up my view that the majority of the people who actually use trains on Merseyside for long distance trips (or who would do if they could afford it) would probably like an extended LNR Crewe service more than an HS2 service, as it's cheap and cheerful, perfect for leisure use.

 

[Trainbike46]

XC and HS2 do different things, though this does back up my view that the majority of the people who actually use trains on Merseyside for long distance trips (or who would do if they could afford it) would probably like an extended LNR Crewe service more than an HS2 service, as it's cheap and cheerful, perfect for leisure use.

As a person who regularly uses long distance services from Birkenhead for leisure purposes, I would say that speed is actually quite important. Plus, more capacity is needed, and HS2 is the best & most likely way to get that extra capacity

 

[Bletchleyite]

As a person who regularly uses long distance services from Birkenhead for leisure purposes, I would say that speed is actually quite important.

The LNR service isn't slow, and the Avanti service is quite quick.

Plus, more capacity is needed, and HS2 is the best & most likely way to get that extra capacity

HS2 is a very expensive way to get extra capacity from Liverpool to London. Indeed, HS2 in full would not give ANY capacity increase to Liverpool. It would be 2 x 200m per hour, rather than 1 x 265m and 1 x 182m (the latter being the second Avanti...eventually), actually a slight decrease.

 

[Taunton]

Another issue I have is saying people can work trains easily. Even with good wifi, there's no way I'd be as productive on a train as at home or in the office where I have extra monitors.

I quite agree. I suspect those who say working on a train is as easy as elsewhere have never had to do it for a living ...

Also the "it will just be London commuters" idea is a nonsense. Nobody with a job in London is going to want to live in Central Birmingham.

 

[MattRat]

The classic compatible trains, which is all that is being bought for now, will continue to Glasgow and Edinburgh, so should be set up for journeys that long.

And even with a Eurostar-like interior, you could fit around 750 seats in a classic compatible 400 meter train, or 900 in one of the future captive sets, compared to 589 in an 11-car pendolino. And of course, you would probably want to do more standard class compared to eurostar, increasing seat numbers even more

And of course a lot of the capacity gains are in more trains anyway. So no need for 3+2 seating

Don't forget that if we do ever get non classic compatible sets, they could be made double deckers, if needed.

 

[Trainbike46]

HS2 is a very expensive way to get extra capacity from Liverpool to London. Indeed, HS2 in full would not give ANY capacity increase to Liverpool. It would be 2 x 200m per hour, rather than 1 x 265m and 1 x 182m (the latter being the second Avanti...eventually), actually a slight decrease.

I meant capacity along the whole WCML, rather than just to Liverpool. The point of HS2 is that it improves many different connections, including Liverpool-london, Manchester-London, Scotland-London, Birmingham-all of the ones before, etc.

In addition, on a seat basis the capacity will likely increase as the seat capacity per length of the HS2 stock is likely to be better than that of the pendolinos, as there won't be need for tilt

 

[Bletchleyite]

In addition, on a seat basis the capacity will likely increase as the seat capacity per length of the HS2 stock is likely to be better than that of the pendolinos, as there won't be need for tilt

Tilt has no impact whatsoever on the amount of the vehicle available for seating. Indeed, I'd expect a 400km/h unit to have a MUCH pointier nose.

Scotland capacity would increase *slightly*. You can't increase it much due to the constraints of the north WCML.

Manchester and Birmingham would, but it starts looking likely that it won't be needed...

 

[Kingston Dan]

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Phase 2A and 2B will be cut in some form, and a cut to the rolling stock budget may also be in order - slower units would be cheaper.

But you'll need more of them to provide the same interval services - so how much is the saving? Also slower units would impact on Scotland-London journey times and reduce modal shift from air to rail with massive carbon impacts. Sounds like a false economy (if it is an actual economy) to me.

 

[AlbertBeale]

But you'll need more of them to provide the same interval services - so how much is the saving? Also slower units would impact on Scotland-London journey times and reduce modal shift from air to rail with massive carbon impacts. Sounds like a false economy (if it is an actual economy) to me.

If people took the environmental crisis as seriously as it ought to be taken (which many on this forum seem not to), then the modal shift would happen by virtually all internal-to-the-UK (and indeed within Europe) passenger flights being banned anyway in the next few years.

 

[Trainbike46]

If people took the environmental crisis as seriously as it ought to be taken (which many on this forum seem not to), then the modal shift would happen by virtually all internal-to-the-UK (and indeed within Europe) passenger flights being banned anyway in the next few years.

That will not fit on the rail network without a significant capacity enhancement.

For example, HS2. Which is why scrapping it would be a terrible idea

 

[Bletchleyite]

That will not fit on the rail network without a significant capacity enhancement.

There are relatively few UK domestic flights. For instance the entirety of the London to Manchester capacity in a day would fit on one 11 car Pendolino.

A ban on intra-Europe flights would mean a considerable reduction in travel, by contrast - weekend breaks, other than to Paris, Brussels and nearby, would no longer be possible.

 

[stuu]

But you'll need more of them to provide the same interval services - so how much is the saving? Also slower units would impact on Scotland-London journey times and reduce modal shift from air to rail with massive carbon impacts. Sounds like a false economy (if it is an actual economy) to me.

You would also need more units to run the same service, so there might not be a worthwhile saving at all

 

[Trainbike46]

There are relatively few UK domestic flights. For instance the entirety of the London to Manchester capacity in a day would fit on one 11 car Pendolino.

A modal shift of 100% from airlines, plus a significant shift from driving (alone) to travelling by rail doesn't fit without a big capacity upgrade, that is obvious. Before the pandemic, Manchester-london services were already pricing passengers off, so even that relatively small number of people can't easily be accommodated without increasing capacity

 

[Thirteen]

It's funny that people who are against HS2 are also against new rolling stock such as the 777s. It like they want to keep living in the Dark Ages.

 

[Trainbike46]

It's funny that people who are against HS2 are also against new rolling stock such as the 777s. It like they want to keep living in the Dark Ages.

Why would anyone oppose the 777s? The 507/508 fleet is clearly nearing it's end of life, so new trains are needed

 

[Bletchleyite]

A modal shift of 100% from airlines, plus a significant shift from driving (alone) to travelling by rail doesn't fit without a big capacity upgrade, that is obvious. Before the pandemic, Manchester-london services were already pricing passengers off, so even that relatively small number of people can't easily be accommodated without increasing capacity

I don't agree that Manchester to London was pricing people off. What it was doing (at 3tph) was charging premium fares, because one person paying £300 makes you more profit than two paying £100 each. Peak time trains often had empty seats.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Nov 2022 ==

It's funny that people who are against HS2 are also against new rolling stock such as the 777s. It like they want to keep living in the Dark Ages.

Who's against the 777s? I think the narrow seats were a bad idea, but apart from that?

 

[Chester1]

Why would anyone oppose the 777s? The 507/508 fleet is clearly nearing it's end of life, so new trains are needed

Because some people are chronic/compulsive complainers. If you keep the old fleet then its a lack of investment, if you replace it its a waste of money because the existing trains are fine.... I have heard people on Merseyrail trains say the latter.

You have given an excellent example of a chronic complainer:

Exactly.

I know someone from Leeds who was opposed to the Leeds branch of HS2.

Then, when the Leeds branch was cancelled this, to her, was evidence that the government was out to hurt both the north in general and the northeast and Leeds in particular. I suspect there will be many people like her who will be unhappy no matter whether HS2 gets build or cancelled

My pet hate is people who say European trains are better and then don't like any changes that bring us closer to European railway norms....

 

[Trainbike46]

Because some people are chronic/compulsive complainers. If you keep the old fleet then its a lack of investment, if you replace it its a waste of money because the existing trains are fine.... I have heard people on Merseyrail trains say the latter.

Fair point. In my opinion it is usually best to just ignore them, as they will be unhappy no matter what option is chosen.

My pet hate is people who say European trains are better and then don't like any changes that bring us closer to European railway norms....

Bonus points if they don't understand that the French railways and the German railways operate in very different ways! or if they show evidence of never actually having used trains in Europe

 

[Bletchleyite]

Bonus points if they don't understand that the French railways and the German railways operate in very different ways! or if they show evidence of never actually having used trains in Europe

Well, quite.

HS2 (if built in full) is more like a French LGV. Dedicated stations and a dedicated line throughout.

Germany and Switzerland build Neubaustrecken (new build lines) that specifically benefit the clockface connectional timetabling (Takt). They integrate with normal lines, and while there are a few e.g. Kassel-Wilhelmshoehe there are generally not dedicated stations.

Our network is more like Germany's than France's.

 

[Trainbike46]

Well, quite.

HS2 (if built in full) is more like a French LGV. Dedicated stations and a dedicated line throughout.

I'm not sure I fully agree: it uses quite a lot of existing stations (Euston, Manchester, Waverley, Glasgow Central, for example), and services are, and always were, planned to continue beyond the dedicated line, to Liverpool, stoke on trent, Scotland, etc. While the relatively long stretch of dedicated line is a bit more the French approach, the lack of stations out in the sticks is much more German in it's approach, so HS2 feels more like a hybrid between the French, German and British way of doing things.

Now of course there are new stations, birmingham curzon street for example, but really, from a passenger perspective Curzon Street is more like an expansion of Moor Street (and really should just have been called that to avoid the confusion).