UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

[Frankfurt]

In the Rail North Committee meeting on 22 February, Nick Donovan (Northern MD) said demand across Northern is now just above 90% of pre-Covid, but with revenue 102-103% (because of a different market mix).

The webcast can be viewed at https://transportforthenorth.com/calendar/rail-north-committee-meeting-22-feb-2023/

90% + compared with pre covid isn't bad at all considering current service levels, industrial action, cost of living crisis etc etc....

 

[Jozhua]

In my experience, the impact of WFH long term has been completely overblown.

Companies still seem to be transitioning towards a hybrid/office based model and that move still seems to be going ahead.

Business travel is still alive and well, but gone are the days of most business travellers rocking up and getting a fully flexible anytime return. Advance fares, booked well ahead of time seems to be the current setup.

Like people say as well, the increase in WFH workers just pushes travel demand to different times/places, so if anything there needs to be work out into making railways able to accommodate new areas of demand.

 

[Krokodil]

but it has to remembered that these operators will never be anything other than dependent on external support.

Well yes, but civilised countries regard public transport as a public good and therefore worthy of a degree of subsidy.

These figures certainly justify Northern retaining pre-pandemic service levels requiring a similar amount of subsidy (adjusted for inflation).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Feb 2023 ==

Like people say as well, the increase in WFH workers just pushes travel demand to different times/places, so if anything there needs to be work out into making railways able to accommodate new areas of demand.

Indeed, it has taken the pressure off of the peaks which should still allow off peak frequencies to be maintained, with no need for peak extras and the inefficiencies inherent in trying to resource them.

The trouble for the government is that they can no longer justify ripping off charging £400 for an Anytime Return when the passenger will get some work done on the train, and arrive after the end of the morning peak for a much more reasonable £100 Off Peak Return.

 

[yorksrob]

evidently some don’t, especially on Fridays. My trains on Friday mornings have less than half the passengers of a Thursday morning.

Hence the cheaper ticket trial for Mon / Fri.

I think it might be a noble but pointless endeavour though.

It's got to the point that for many, the flexibility of working from home, not commuting 2+ hours every day, improved work-life balance etc. is a bigger attractor. Therefore weighing all these WFH benefits up versus let's say 20-30% off their commute (because it might be 100% off currently!) is probably a no-brainer and might appear like desperation on part of the railway which hybrid commuters will just scoff at. Of course if they are trvaelling 3 times a week, its more marginal as if you go for the 4th or 5th day, weekly seasons start to become more attractive again, especially if they might use it on the weekend now.

Anecdotally one reason there is more people travelling on the weekend for leisure purposes is because all the WFH, white-collar commuters no longer have to take it for the previous 5 days and its a bit more attractive and there's a different image of rail as opposed to packed, expensive peak travel!

I think the railway would be better off going all out and marketing Friday as a leisure day. Make it all off-peak, include it in attractive "weekender" fares etc.

Trying to turn back the clock ten years seems like flogging a dead horse.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Feb 2023 ==

In the Rail North Committee meeting on 22 February, Nick Donovan (Northern MD) said demand across Northern is now just above 90% of pre-Covid, but with revenue 102-103% (because of a different market mix).

The webcast can be viewed at https://transportforthenorth.com/calendar/rail-north-committee-meeting-22-feb-2023/

That is interesting. Yet the Government is still forcing them to cut our services and trotting out the old revenue gap line.

 

[paul1609]

In my experience, the impact of WFH long term has been completely overblown.

Companies still seem to be transitioning towards a hybrid/office based model and that move still seems to be going ahead.

Business travel is still alive and well, but gone are the days of most business travellers rocking up and getting a fully flexible anytime return. Advance fares, booked well ahead of time seems to be the current setup.

Like people say as well, the increase in WFH workers just pushes travel demand to different times/places, so if anything there needs to be work out into making railways able to accommodate new areas of demand.

I had to get a peak train up to London from Ashford Int. for the first time since covid last Weds for a hospital appointment. What would have previously been a 12 car train full from Tonbridge and standing from Sevenoaks has now been reduced to 8 cars and had maybe 25% of seats free on the stretch in to London Bridge.

 

[Killingworth]

Perspective!

I paid £20.60 for an off peak return to York from Sheffield with railcard yesterday. Some standing in both directions between Sheffield and Leeds in both directions but not many. A pleasant enough journey with happy fellow travellers.

It cost £21 for the Q park at Sheffield! I'll not do that bit again.

 

[Iskra]

Perspective!

I paid £20.60 for an off peak return to York from Sheffield with railcard yesterday. Some standing in both directions between Sheffield and Leeds in both directions but not many. A pleasant enough journey with happy fellow travellers.

It cost £21 for the Q park at Sheffield! I'll not do that bit again.

Sheffield-Leeds was a nightmare yesterday. We (along with probably another 60+) couldn’t physically get on the 2 car Hallam semi-fast. Then it was a 4-car voyager in each direction full and standing. A handful of Northern cancellations and a number of football fixtures in the area with large attendances completely overwhelmed the inadequate capacity provided. Total shambles from both operators running the shortest trans possible on the routes (even the Dearne Valley stoppers that I saw yesterday were only 2 car, when they are sometimes 4).

 

[Krokodil]

Sheffield-Leeds was a nightmare yesterday. We (along with probably another 60+) couldn’t physically get on the 2 car Hallam semi-fast. Then it was a 4-car voyager in each direction full and standing. A handful of Northern cancellations and a number of football fixtures in the area with large attendances completely overwhelmed the inadequate capacity provided. Total shambles from both operators running the shortest trans possible on the routes (even the Dearne Valley stoppers that I saw yesterday were only 2 car, when they are sometimes 4).

But but but, no one is travelling, the government says so!

The same government of course who refuse to let Crosscountry expand their capacity...

 

[Llandudno]

Thursday 23 February
1056 Northern 2 Car Chesterfield-Leeds full and standing, so I didn’t board
1105 XC 5 car Chesterfield-Edinburgh full and standing leaving Sheffield, but I got a seat in a seat marked ‘not for public use’ - not challenged as no ticket check!

 

[Horizon22]

But but but, no one is travelling, the government says so!

The same government of course who refuse to let Crosscountry expand their capacity...

Because the government often confuses “no one” with “commuters” which used to be the bread and butter of revenue in London & SE (and some major cities).

 

[dk1]

Because the government often confuses “no one” with “commuters” which used to be the bread and butter of revenue in London & SE (and some major cities).

To be fair it’s been a very long time since the government used that term but for some reason people still seem to cling onto it.

 

[Iskra]

But but but, no one is travelling, the government says so!

The same government of course who refuse to let Crosscountry expand their capacity...

It would be better if they actually used what they had…

They can blame the government all they want, but their rolling stock situation must be the best its ever been since their fleet size hasn’t reduced yet they still aren’t running their full service. We’re told York-Doncaster has been cut to improve capacity on the core, but 3 out of 4 of my recent weekend XC journeys between Leeds and Sheffield have been on 4 car trains, which are totally inadequate.

 

[yorksrob]

Ultimately it's no coincidence that so many train companies aren't performing. The common factor is the Government.

 

[Meerkat]

Ultimately it's no coincidence that so many train companies aren't performing. The common factor is the Government.

And yet many people’s solution is to give the government more control!

 

[yorksrob]

And yet many people’s solution is to give the government more control!

It depends what you mean by "more control".

It's hard to imagine the railway being more "under government control" than it is now.

I certainly believe that railway managers should be allowed to manage, whether that be under a publicly or privately owned company.

 

[Bald Rick]

Well that rather busts the "what about the revenue" protestations in favour of proposed cuts to services. Obviously things will be different in NSE land, but there's no excuse for cutbacks in the north.

Given that Northern’s fare income Pre Covid represented 3.4% of the whole industry’s fare income, then getting back to Pre covid numbers (which, remember, includes 10% of fare rises in the last three years) does not make a dent when considering national policy.

 

[yorksrob]

Given that Northern’s fare income Pre Covid represented 3.4% of the whole industry’s fare income, then getting back to Pre covid numbers (which, remember, includes 10% of fare rises in the last three years) does not make a dent when considering national policy.

But it should certainly make a "dent" when forming national policy about Northern railway services.

 

[Facing Back]

Not really, because Northern's revenue has never come anywhere near covering it's costs, and even at 103% pre COVID given the intervening cost increases since no doubt it is as far away from doing so as ever.

I entirely agree with the sentiment by the way - the Northern railway is busy and needs encouraging and supporting - but it has to remembered that these operators will never be anything other than dependent on external support.

I agree with all of that, but it’s still encouraging to see revenue start to recover.

 

[Meerkat]

It depends what you mean by "more control".

It's hard to imagine the railway being more "under government control" than it is now.

I certainly believe that railway managers should be allowed to manage, whether that be under a publicly or privately owned company.

GBR would give more government control.
Getting passenger numbers up needs people willing to invest

 

[Goldfish62]

GBR would give more government control.

How do you come to that conclusion?

 

[tbtc]

I think the railway would be better off going all out and marketing Friday as a leisure day. Make it all off-peak, include it in attractive "weekender" fares etc

If Fridays are treated as off-peak then there’s no going back, that’s permanently reduced fares and reduced revenue (no government are ever going to force a return to “peaks” on Fridays)

But a few of the people demanding this are also still clinging to the idea that Working From Home is just a fad

But if this just a temporary blip (three years later) then surely we should be expecting people to be eager to start commuting every Friday and be flocking back soon, so no need to massively discount fares?

Sheffield-Leeds was a nightmare yesterday. We (along with probably another 60+) couldn’t physically get on the 2 car Hallam semi-fast. Then it was a 4-car voyager in each direction full and standing. A handful of Northern cancellations and a number of football fixtures in the area with large attendances completely overwhelmed the inadequate capacity provided. Total shambles from both operators running the shortest trans possible on the routes (even the Dearne Valley stoppers that I saw yesterday were only 2 car, when they are sometimes 4).

The problem is that the insufficient capacity at Leeds means all services through Barnsley are restricted to just two coaches - we desperately need more seats on the route but there’s just no way of running longer trains without radical surgery

But but but, no one is travelling, the government says so!

I don’t think anyone is claiming that though?

And yet many people’s solution is to give the government more control!

Yup, the Nationalisation obsessives don’t seem to realise how badly things have backfired, and instead want more Government control

 

[Krokodil]

If Fridays are treated as off-peak then there’s no going back, that’s permanently reduced fares and reduced revenue (no government are ever going to force a return to “peaks” on Fridays)

But if this just a temporary blip (three years later) then surely we should be expecting people to be eager to start commuting every Friday and be flocking back soon, so no need to massively discount fares?

Virgin abandoned peak restrictions on Fridays way back in 2019 or so because the peak trains were dead and the first off peak trains in the evening were rammed (to the extent of switching off tilt and running at normal linespeed. The change made much more money from unleashing pent-up demand than it lost through the fare cut.

 

[Goldfish62]

Yup, the Nationalisation obsessives don’t seem to realise how badly things have backfired, and instead want more Government control

Anyone who thinks that nationalisation would bring more Government control doesn't understand the current situation nor how nationalised industries operate.

 

[Facing Back]

Anyone who thinks that nationalisation would bring more Government control doesn't understand the current situation nor how nationalised industries operate.

as in "badly"?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Feb 2023 ==

Virgin abandoned peak restrictions on Fridays way back in 2019 or so because the peak trains were dead and the first off peak trains in the evening were rammed (to the extent of switching off tilt and running at normal linespeed. The change made much more money from unleashing pent-up demand than it lost through the fare cut.

That worked well for me and spread the load much more evenly when I wasn't shelling out for a full fat ticket - I don't know whether it affected their revenue.

 

[43066]

as in "badly"?

Yup! Quite why the railway unions are so in favour of nationalisation is anyone’s guess…

 

[dk1]

Yup! Quite why the railway unions are so in favour of nationalisation is anyone’s guess…

Indeed. I never ever understood it particularly for us drivers. Be very careful what you wish for I say.

 

[Facing Back]

But a few of the people demanding this are also still clinging to the idea that Working From Home is just a fad

But if this just a temporary blip (three years later) then surely we should be expecting people to be eager to start commuting every Friday and be flocking back soon, so no need to massively discount fares?

I'm seeing no signs of it being a fad. It's being adjusted as businesses settle down to working practices which suit them.

I've just been told that we ae seeing some different behaviours from the mass WFH policies. Some businesses are rationalising their office space (we did this a while back) and thinking of shutting non-core spaces they have used as expansion offices. But some are also recognising that tumbleweed on a Friday isn't getting best use of their estate and are discussing ways of rationing Monday and Friday WFH (when they have a hybrid policy) and getting more people out of the office Tue and Wed. In London Thus doesn't seem to be an issue.

We've also seen business which has relied on transient office space looking at policies where more staff are in a main office part of the time. In many areas office space is cheaper and more available and lease terms are more flexible - plus firms need less of it to have an effective presence.

However the number of people travelling with peak time flexible tickets or season tickets is down. Flex policies are still seeing some offices empty until 10.00 but the number of 7.30 or 8am Teams calls is through the roof.

Pick your own horse on this one. Personally, I think city centres will recover strongly but there will be a continued lack of people prepared to fund the very highest fares in most circumstances,. As the rail industry seems to geared around providing the capacity to cover peak demand, the spreading of it should help to better utiilise assets (my un-informed view and happy to be corrected) but this will take a great deal of time to materialise.

In the meantime, we are still seeing XC running short trains which personally irritates me.

 

[Bald Rick]

Yup! Quite why the railway unions are so in favour of nationalisation is anyone’s guess…

It has been rather fun to watch ASLEF in this dispute - ostensibly wanting nationalisation, but *really* not liking it when the TOCs under national control all offer the same pay deal!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Feb 2023 ==

I've just been told that we ae seeing some different behaviours from the mass WFH policies. Some businesses are rationalising their office space (we did this a while back) and thinking of shutting non-core spaces they have used as expansion offices. But some are also recognising that tumbleweed on a Friday isn't getting best use of their estate and are discussing ways of rationing Monday and Friday WFH (when they have a hybrid policy) and getting more people out of the office Tue and Wed. In London Thus doesn't seem to be an issue.

Friday is without doubt my favourite day in the office. Train in is Less than half full - there’s even seats available. I often have a whole floor of the office to myself, get loads done. And then the pub later is less busy than Thursday, and I can meet similarly Friday-office friends with more space. Much better than wfh!

 

[Facing Back]

Indeed. I never ever understood it particularly for us drivers. Be very careful what you wish for I say.

A high barrier to entry for new drivers coupled with a competitive market in a constrained environment seems to have been good for drivers - in fact tailor made for that (this is not a pop at drivers at all). I was in favour of privatisation when it happened - so be careful what you wish for applies to me too - but a o-level economy student could have seen that one coming.

The second sign of madness is expecting to do the same thing for a second time and expecting a different outcome - so why am I am hopeful about GBR?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Feb 2023 ==

It has been rather fun to watch ASLEF in this dispute - ostensibly wanting nationalisation, but *really* not liking it when the TOCs under national control all offer the same pay deal!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Feb 2023 ==

In many other businesses, a group of employers grouping together to collaborate (or conspire!) is considered a cartel and brings a certain level of telling off. Whilst I agree with this in principle . if the unions can orgasnise across multiple different employers, I'm pretty relaxed about the companies doing the same.

 

[dk1]

A high barrier to entry for new drivers coupled with a competitive market in a constrained environment seems to have been good for drivers - in fact tailor made for that (this is not a pop at drivers at all). I was in favour of privatisation when it happened - so be careful what you wish for applies to me too - but a o-level economy student could have seen that one coming.

The second sign of madness is expecting to do the same thing for a second time and expecting a different outcome - so why am I am hopeful about GBR?

I’m not sure really mate. It’s not something that bothers me much. Yes, it’s been a damn good 25 years previously.