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UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

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TT-ONR-NRN

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From my ridiculously frequent rail travel, much of it in and around the South East, carriages of fresh air are a bit of myth!
I wish someone would tell the DfT this as it’s been particularly rough on both Southern Metro and South Western Railway these past few months. The 377 I took from Victoria to Reigate on return from a forum meal in January was an appalling journey. Very cramped indeed.
 
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Watershed

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^are all the services back to 100 % of pre-covid? does this mean quite a crowded trains?
Nowhere near, though there are regional variations. The latest available ORR statistics, for July to September 2022, indicate that only a few TOCs operated 95+% of pre-Covid train-km:
  • Elizabeth line (obviously not comparable, due to the opening of the core section)
  • EMR (again not comparable, due to the introduction of Connect services)
  • Lumo (not comparable as didn't operate before Covid)
  • London Overground
  • Caledonian Sleeper
  • Grand Central (they have since reduced their services slightly)
  • Heathrow Express
The following TOCs operated 90-95% of pre-Covid train-km:
  • Merseyrail
  • GWR
  • LNER
  • Hull Trains (believe they are now back to a full pre-Covid service)
  • TfW
There are many TOCs running a significantly reduced service compared to pre-Covid, including XC, Avanti, TPE, Chiltern, WMT, GTR, ScotRail and Southeastern. Most of those have now undertaken post-Covid timetable recasts which have baked in these reductions.

Greater Anglia, c2c and Northern have a moderately reduced service compared to pre-Covid.

Obviously you do also have to consider passenger-vehicle-km (see page 14 of the above-mentioned report), as some operators (notably XC) have lengthened services such that they are still running a similar number of coaches per hour, spread across fewer services. But maintaining a similar number of coaches per hour is no substitute for frequency; it is well-known that higher frequency tends to lead to higher demand.
 

SussexSeagull

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I haven't commuted since lockdown, although I imagine the trains are busy even if not pre-Covid crammed, but my journeys on Southern and Thameslink indicate they are as busy as ever and if not busier.
 

greyman42

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The following TOCs operated 90-95% of pre-Covid train-km:
  • Merseyrail
  • GWR
  • LNER
  • Hull Trains (believe they are now back to a full pre-Covid service)
  • TfW
Last time i used LNER out of London in the afternoon peak, they were no where near as busy as they were pre-covid but they seem to be carrying more leisure passengers on a weekend. How this equates revenue wise i don't know.
 

Krokodil

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The carriages of fresh air are sitting in sidings or off leased aren’t they? SWR was running crowded short formations before Covid!
If they're off-lease then they are saving money at least.

some operators (notably XC) have lengthened services such that they are still running a similar number of coaches per hour, spread across fewer services. But maintaining a similar number of coaches per hour is no substitute for frequency; it is well-known that higher frequency tends to lead to higher demand.
Operation Princess in short. Suppressing demand in this way is what XC needs really, at least until the government pulls its finger out of its arse and permits the operator to lease enough rolling stock to match the demand.
 

Adrian1980uk

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Nowhere near, though there are regional variations. The latest available ORR statistics, for July to September 2022, indicate that only a few TOCs operated 95+% of pre-Covid train-km:
  • Elizabeth line (obviously not comparable, due to the opening of the core section)
  • EMR (again not comparable, due to the introduction of Connect services)
  • Lumo (not comparable as didn't operate before Covid)
  • London Overground
  • Caledonian Sleeper
  • Grand Central (they have since reduced their services slightly)
  • Heathrow Express
The following TOCs operated 90-95% of pre-Covid train-km:
  • Merseyrail
  • GWR
  • LNER
  • Hull Trains (believe they are now back to a full pre-Covid service)
  • TfW
There are many TOCs running a significantly reduced service compared to pre-Covid, including XC, Avanti, TPE, Chiltern, WMT, GTR, ScotRail and Southeastern. Most of those have now undertaken post-Covid timetable recasts which have baked in these reductions.

Greater Anglia, c2c and Northern have a moderately reduced service compared to pre-Covid.

Obviously you do also have to consider passenger-vehicle-km (see page 14 of the above-mentioned report), as some operators (notably XC) have lengthened services such that they are still running a similar number of coaches per hour, spread across fewer services. But maintaining a similar number of coaches per hour is no substitute for frequency; it is well-known that higher frequency tends to lead to higher demand.
This is the key point and it's no coincidence that the lower end of the passenger km table compared to Pre COVID are also operating the biggest reduction in timetable
 

Trainbike46

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If they're off-lease then they are saving money at least.


Operation Princess in short. Suppressing demand in this way is what XC needs really, at least until the government pulls its finger out of its arse and permits the operator to lease enough rolling stock to match the demand.
Returning to a more pre-covid operation wouldn't be a bad idea.

And, as the government uses supposed lack of demand to justify not investing, suppressing demand on XC won't be a temporary solution
 

whoosh

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It has been rather fun to watch ASLEF in this dispute - ostensibly wanting nationalisation, but *really* not liking it when the TOCs under national control all offer the same pay deal!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Whilst I'm in agreement that the nationalisation so desired by the unions would not be the panacea they desire, I feel I need to point out that offering the same percentage to all the TOCs Drivers and aligning terms and conditions, is absolutely NOT the same pay deal when some already have the conditions the government want, having sold them in previous pay deals, and the ones that haven't sold them are being asked to change them for free.
It very much isn't the same pay deal for all the TOCs. You are confusing the same percentage rise as being the same deal. It isn't. Some are being asked to change conditions for that percentage rise and others aren't.
 

Facing Back

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Whilst I'm in agreement that the nationalisation so desired by the unions would not be the panacea they desire, I feel I need to point out that offering the same percentage to all the TOCs Drivers and aligning terms and conditions, is absolutely NOT the same pay deal when some already have the conditions the government want, having sold them in previous pay deals, and the ones that haven't sold them are being asked to change them for free.
It very much isn't the same pay deal for all the TOCs. You are confusing the same percentage rise as being the same deal. It isn't. Some are being asked to change conditions for that percentage rise and others aren't.
There are semantics here which both sides are playing.

All drivers are being offered the same percentage increase and the terms and conditions (in principle) are being harmonised ergo they are all being offered the same and ASLEF (and the RMT too it seems in the other dispute) seem from their public statements not to be happy.

I agree that the impact of this is not the same for drivers at all TOCs and some will see it as grossly unfair by comparison with their peers in different TOCs so I accept you can make an argument that it is not the same deal for all TOCs.

I don't know what the DfT's strategy is - I don't know that they have published and to be honest don't know that they have one. If it is to - over time - harmonise the T&Cs and remuneration across the TOCs and halt the arbitrage between them as regards train drivers, it is difficult to see where else they can start in an organisation which is resistant to change.

If they are determined to do this, then they need to start somewhere. It's always going to be unpopular.
 

LowLevel

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Today was hugely busy I found. Full and standing trains everywhere. Managed to take over £800 in local short distance fares, between 150 and 200 tickets sold, interestingly on routes that are entirely penalty fare with theoretically ticket vending machines everywhere. Suffice to say my feet hurt!
 

mrmartin

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Today was hugely busy I found. Full and standing trains everywhere. Managed to take over £800 in local short distance fares, between 150 and 200 tickets sold, interestingly on routes that are entirely penalty fare with theoretically ticket vending machines everywhere. Suffice to say my feet hurt!
Where is this sorry?
 

londonmidland

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Today was hugely busy I found. Full and standing trains everywhere. Managed to take over £800 in local short distance fares, between 150 and 200 tickets sold, interestingly on routes that are entirely penalty fare with theoretically ticket vending machines everywhere. Suffice to say my feet hurt!
Sounds a bit like how Sheffield looked this evening. Full and standing on loads of services.
 

Jozhua

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Lots on new housing going up but years of denial by DfT and SE that potential rail users might live in the new housing. Lots of the new housing is now completing with plenty more in the pipeline.
The fact that DfT is taken by surprise about rail use being increased by new housing going up along a corridor is shocking.

Surely it should be intended that new constitution will be built alongside rail corridors, so we can provide new housing to people who can live near public transport that will take them to the places they need to go?

I'm surprised how little development seems to be occurring near certain Crossrail stations further out on the route.
 

railfan99

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Today was hugely busy I found. Full and standing trains everywhere. Managed to take over £800 in local short distance fares, between 150 and 200 tickets sold, interestingly on routes that are entirely penalty fare with theoretically ticket vending machines everywhere. Suffice to say my feet hurt!

Thank you for your diligence. So I can look it up from Australia, what's one example of a route you worked that was busy?

I often wonder how much revenue rail operators such as TrenItalia lose from guards/conductors not patrolling through trains and issuing tickets. It was noticeable on my latest jaunt to Europe last year that some operators have conductors constantly patrolling, and others (such as SNCF) only seem to check tickets on board TGVs but on loco hauled trains such as Bordeaux to Marseilles St Charles, no.

Similarly, in UK I noted a huge divergence between franchised rail operators. Avanti WC on a midmorning Glasgow Queen St-London even detected a ticketless traveller and had her removed from the train despite huge numbers of passengers joining and alighting at most stations, whereas on an early morning weekday run from Preston (Lancs.) to Manchester Oxford Rd, I did not see one ticket being checked. Perhaps barriers being at major stations is the reason for the latter.
 
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Watershed

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Thank you for your diligence. So I can look it up from Australia, what's one example of a route you worked that was busy?
@LowLevel's depot has an extensive route card, including between:
  • Norwich and Liverpool via Ely, Peterborough, Nottingham, Sheffield and Manchester
  • Leicester and Lincoln via Nottingham
  • Nottingham and Matlock or Crewe via Derby
  • Nottingham and Worksop via Mansfield
  • Nottingham and Skegness
  • Lincoln and Peterborough via Spalding
You may be able to guess where they are based from a particular recurring location!

From personal experience of the kind of "clientele" you tend to get, I suspect it's particularly the Nottingham to Worksop route where @LowLevel will have sold a lot of their fares, though I'm happy to be corrected.
 
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philosopher

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Similarly, in UK I noted a huge divergence between franchised rail operators. Avanti WC on a midmorning Glasgow Queen St-London even detected a ticketless traveller and had her removed from the train despite huge numbers of passengers joining and alighting at most stations, whereas on an early morning weekday run from Preston (Lancs.) to Manchester Oxford Rd, I did not see one ticket being checked. Perhaps barriers being at major stations is the reason for the latter.
Ticket checks in my experience have been rare in the last few years. Pre Covid, tickets would be checked the majority of the time on services outside the London travelcard area. Now they are rare. So I wonder if there are many more passengers now not buying tickets and taking the chance that they will not be court.
 
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I haven't commuted since lockdown, although I imagine the trains are busy even if not pre-Covid crammed, but my journeys on Southern and Thameslink indicate they are as busy as ever and if not busier.
I do commute, though less than before. My morning train of choice is the 07:39 from Sanderstead, arriving at Victoria just after 8 am. 12 carriages. Always loads of seats any day of the working week. And not just at the back, the train rolls into Sanderstead with room all the way down (and in any case the very front carriages are not wholly desirable as, like it was before Covid, a quarter to a third of the train gets off at Clapham Jct where the footbridge and subway are about carriages 6-10). Plus a good few are just going for a cross platform interchange to get to, for example, Wimbledon.

Evening peak was always a bit less busy, but here as well trains are nowhere near as full as they were.
 

PGAT

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Southern and Thameslink generally not recovered as much of their passengers as other TOCs. Seeing Reedham, Coulsdon Town and Woodmansterne dropping down into the 10 Least used stations in London was a particular shock for me.
 

E27007

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An article in February Railnews, an interview with their latest CEO, post-Covid passenger numbers are down by 30%, usual scapegoat named and shamed ie "Brexit"
Eurostar cannot give a date for Ebbsfleet to be in their timetabling plans. Critics of Eurostar point to their high fares and lack of competition
 

Llandudno

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It does make you wonder how many rail journeys are unrecorded because of ticketless travel?

Perhaps some operators should concentrate their efforts on collecting fares rather than selling cuddly toys!

Well done to @LowLevel for his diligence!
 

midland1

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According to the BBC on a report about the fair increase, season ticket sales are less than a third of what they were. That seems very low have they got there facts wrong?
 

Krokodil

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Today was hugely busy I found. Full and standing trains everywhere. Managed to take over £800 in local short distance fares, between 150 and 200 tickets sold, interestingly on routes that are entirely penalty fare with theoretically ticket vending machines everywhere. Suffice to say my feet hurt!
Bah! Engineering blockade right in the middle of our busiest route this weekend. Little commission for me - though I did intercept a couple of Open Returns being used multiple times so it wasn't entirely unproductive.

Still, despite the doom and gloom, my commission last summer was almost identical to my commission in summer 2019. Yes, that's a real terms cut when fares had gone up by 9% over the same time period but given the way that online purchases have proliferated my takings have held up remarkably well. A win for my employer.

Revenue I take (I'm not an ATE so it's not even my primary function) more than exceeds my gross pay (inclusive of all overtime). That's in addition to revenue protected in other ways by me, not to mention the other tasks that I undertake as a guard.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

According to the BBC on a report about the fair increase, season ticket sales are less than a third of what they were. That seems very low have they got there facts wrong?
Season tickets are usually no use for people travelling in on four (or fewer) days. So given some of the changes we've seen to working patterns, a drop of that magnitude does not seem surprising to me. Revenue has largely (totally at some operators) been made up by increased sales of other types of ticket.
 

jon0844

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Southern and Thameslink generally not recovered as much of their passengers as other TOCs. Seeing Reedham, Coulsdon Town and Woodmansterne dropping down into the 10 Least used stations in London was a particular shock for me.

With the huge leap in short ticketing thanks to e-ticketing (although with the industry now clamping down on this, it may reduce in the coming months as more and more people are finding this fraud leaves quite the audit trail once caught - or perhaps not even needing to be caught when Trainline begins to investigate based on their own data), I wonder how the stats have changed to show small stations suddenly having an extraordinarily large number of ticket sales.
 

JonathanH

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With the huge leap in short ticketing thanks to e-ticketing (although with the industry now clamping down on this, it may reduce in the coming months as more and more people are finding this fraud leaves quite the audit trail once caught - or perhaps not even needing to be caught when Trainline begins to investigate based on their own data), I wonder how the stats have changed to show small stations suddenly having an extraordinarily large number of ticket sales.
These stations are much more likely to have Oyster or Contactless users, so I am not sure the theory about e-tickets stands up here.
 

Hadders

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According to the BBC on a report about the fair increase, season ticket sales are less than a third of what they were. That seems very low have they got there facts wrong?
Season ticket sales are through the floor:

They were in big decline pre-covid as many people were working from home 1 or 2 days a week.

Add in the acceleration of working from home due to covid.

Then add weekly capping on contactless/oyster into the mix which for many means a traditional season ticket simply isn’t needed or worth it.
 

jon0844

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These stations are much more likely to have Oyster or Contactless users, so I am not sure the theory about e-tickets stands up here.

Many stations with high levels of fraud are within Contactless areas. Contactless costs money once you've tapped in. Buying an e-ticket you later refund doesn't, or even of course not buying a ticket AT ALL unless you see a passenger host - in which case the sales are going to look like they have disappeared.

I don't know how much of a factor it will be, but it will play a part. However, if it suits the DfT to say that passenger numbers are down to facilitate cuts in services or short forming trains where possible, they'll likely be happy to concur that trains are now less busy - even if users can see that not being the case.
 

railfan99

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@LowLevel's depot has an extensive route card, including between:
  • Norwich and Liverpool via Ely, Peterborough, Nottingham, Sheffield and Manchester
  • Leicester and Lincoln via Nottingham
  • Nottingham and Matlock or Crewe via Derby
  • Nottingham and Worksop via Mansfield
  • Nottingham and Skegness
  • Lincoln and Peterborough via Spalding
You may be able to guess where they are based from a particular recurring location!

From personal experience of the kind of "clientele" you tend to get, I suspect it's particularly the Nottingham to Worksop route where @LowLevel will have sold a lot of their fares, though I'm happy to be corrected.

I guessed thank you. For my 2023 UK/Europe trip, I'm seriously considering Nottingham-Mansfield-Worksop but will make sure I have a money belt on hehe. I rarely do as cumbersome. I assume this line is quite industrial/working class and hence 'boring' but it's 'the real England' so worth experiencing. I certainly don't spend every day travelling on 'The Jacobite' in your northerly neighbour.
 
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