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Commuting 'not coming back': Harper

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BrianW

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Certainly it won't go back to how it was, as others have mentioned Friday were lower anyway. Increasing number of companies are offering 4 days a week too.
Back in the 1970s (! nearly half a century ago!) I worked a Flexitime 9-day fortnight. We had a rota giving every so often a four-day weekend- so good we hardly needed to ever take leave! The employer's aim was to stagger arrival and departure times and thus take pressure off roads and buses.
There's also another angle to this. I'm sure I read a while ago that new housing developments weren't being allowed near many stations as they were too overcrowded. Now that's not the case (presumably), can more housing projects go ahead (at least in London?)
Intensification 'issues' at Cockfosters come to mind; and 'urban village hubs' on East-West Rail. NImbyism is alive and well.
 
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Krokodil

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To a large extent this is self-limiting. The number of commuters into a city won't exceed the number of desks they have to work at.
True, but capacity is being cut to match. If it is cut to match the average loading, then it won't cope on the days when everyone happens to be going in to the office at the same time.
I was disappointed by how low passenger numbers were yesterday between York and Leeds, despite absolutely huge gaps in the service (reduced service plus cancellations/delays).
Surely the service gaps are suppressing demand.
The idea that passenger journeys are back to what they were pre-Covid is totally absurd.
Nationally possibly; in NSE land certainly; in Regional Railways and Intercity land on the other hand demand often far outstrips supply.
It seems pretty clear that projects of this nature that mainly affect commuter capacity will not be taken forward.
Nah, they'll spend a fortune preparing for the work, then at the last minute they'll finally pull the plug with all of the money down the drain and no work for the skilled staff who need to be kept if you don't want it to cost a fortune when everything starts over in five years' time.
 

telstarbox

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As far as I knew and certainly see often, housing (estates) are still being built in the easiest/cheapest places to build them, farmland on the edge of town. Railways literally aren't even a factor, other than the fact they usually allow quick access to a trunk road which hopefully gets you to a parkway station somewhere before noon.

I've seen estates built right next to an in use line, but no sign of anyone thinking what a great idea it would be to open a station. It was twenty years before urban creep infilled a stretch of tramway I know, before it actually led to an extra stop. That took about ten different organisations working together. They had the cheek to open it with a ribbon cutting ceremony. They could have combined it with the primary school graduations of the kids born to families in the next door estate!
That's often true for houses but most flats are built on brownfield sites further into town centres where the land values make more sense. Planning policy generally supports higher density and lower parking provision in town centres.

Also opening a new station may seem like an obvious solution but it isn't necessarily a good idea if it just abstracts passengers from the station up the line. In the new normal of flexible working / more off peak travel this applies even more.
 

Bikeman78

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It's worth mentioning that in the above timetable the former 2Cxx and 2Pxx services on Saturdays would have been exclusively 4 cars only. From memory I think this was seven diagrams.
Yes it was definitely seven diagrams, the cycle was 1006 KGX-CBG, 1155 CBG-KGX, 1336 KGX-PBO, 1515 PBO-KGX and so on. The down platforms between Royston and Cambridge have been extended so, if Thameslink had not happened, it seems reasonable to assume that they would all be eight cars now. The class 317s had a mod so that the rear set could be locked out on the morning peak trains and unlocked at Royston.
 

jfowkes

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Whenever rail usage goes down there's this implicit assumption that it's just something we have to live with, just one of those things, can't be helped...

Rather than any sort of acknowledgment of how excess capacity creates an opportunity to get other people onto trains who were previously excluded, to reduce transport pollution and emissions, to reduce traffic congestion etc.

It's not as if no-one is travelling anymore. There are people out there in cars right now who will use the train with just a bit of work from those making policy.
 

Shaw S Hunter

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The official figures show rail use is at 100% of pre pandemic levels.


As for TPE, the service is so dire and unpredictable that many passengers have simply abandoned travel with them.

6 hr service gaps at Cleethorpes have destroyed any sense of reliability.
So another example of a government minister making a bold generalised statement in the House of Commons without bothering to check said statement against actual facts available from their own department. It's no wonder people are so cynical about politicians.
 

Meerkat

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So another example of a government minister making a bold generalised statement in the House of Commons without bothering to check said statement against actual facts available from their own department. It's no wonder people are so cynical about politicians.
Have you read the quote above, or just the title?
 

Sleepy

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I would suggest Mr Harper pays a visit to Ipswich, Manningtree or Colchester (or any GE station) between 0600 and 0830 (Monday -Thursday) and tells the hoards waiting to catch a train to London that commuting isn't returning ! I don't think he'd be very popular, especially with those now finding they have to stand. Of course instead of a monthly season or Anytime tickets many have discovered Advance tickets are great to cut costs - you have to wonder why these are being offered on full & standing services ??
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I would suggest Mr Harper pays a visit to Ipswich, Manningtree or Colchester (or any GE station) stations between 0600 and 0830 (Monday -Thursday) and tells the hoards waiting to catch a train to London that commuting isn't returning ! I don't think he'd be very popular, especially with those now finding they have to stand. Of course instead of a monthly season or Anytime tickets many have discovered Advance tickets are great to cut costs - you have to wonder why these are being offered on full & standing services ??
The reality is season ticket income is running at less than 50% of what it was pre 2020 and that was a significant source of income whether people chose to travel everyday or not. Now i would say from my local station plenty of passengers have time shifted when they travel and on what day they travel so now buy daily tickets which contributes to the numbers and mustn't be ignored. The industry could do more to match resources to demand but that would cost more overall and as we know the majority of operators simply don't have the rolling stock available to strengthen services. To my mind what we need is passengers pressurising their MPs as that is surest way to get back to DfT that votes are at risk if they don't respond.
 

JonathanH

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To my mind what we need is passengers pressurising their MPs as that is surest way to get back to DfT that votes are at risk if they don't respond.
I think it is going to take a lot for railways to become an electoral issue again. MPs can respond with information about reduced passenger numbers, the support being given to the industry, and the need to manage costs. All fairly easy stock answers.
 

heathrowrail

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I've just heard the Transport Secretary saying in answer to a question in parliamant this afternoon (around 16.12) that he doesn't think commuter rail will be coming back post-pandemic- at:


Time to expect increasing timetables to facilitate leisure travel (esp weekends and off-peak) and fewer 'rush-hour commuter trains'; that should take pressure out of the system- fewer traincrew needed at peak times; fewer trains stood in sidings most of the day.
To be honest we don't know what the future holds. If you look at the railways in general they have always gone in peaks and troughs of being "busy" and then running virtually empty. People commuting and then not commuting, I think anyone saying that this is the new normal needs to get a grip on reality. Situations and companies change over time, we could see more working from home or we might see a return to the office in 10-15 years time.
 

Silverlinky

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I suppose it must be different all over the country and saying "commuting isn't coming back" is a broad brush statement which might be correct in places and incorrect in others.

Take my local stations....Northampton, the only busy weekdays seem to be on Tuesday and Wednesday, but even on those days the ground level of the car park is not full and the top level of the meccano car park is empty. Same goes for Bletchley, and Milton Keynes has a new multi storey car park which has never opened as there is no demand.

Consider that commuters from Northampton and Milton Keynes used to pay around £6k for a season ticket (Gold Card), the amount of revenue is now only a fraction of what it was. Passenger numbers on WMT overall are around 65% of pre-covid levels, and that includes an increase in off peak travel versus pre covid level, I think the latest figure for that was around 115%. Therefore commuter traffic for the business sits around 50% of what it was, and for a SE-Centric Commuter type operation, that's a bit hit financially.
 

Andrew1395

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If London, (origin/destination), accounted for 60/70% of national passenger revenue and season ticket income (excluding seven day tickets), is about 20% of what it was pre-covid, then the industry needs to reappraise its purpose and products.

It’s not about fulfilment and sales channels (moving from paper and face to face to digital). It’s now about replacing Victorian concepts like season tickets with products that reflect the new patterns of usage and covering service cost.

So if it’s now a fact that regional centres account for a bigger percentage of total GB passenger usage. Or Saturdays are busier than Fridays. Then customer pricing and products will need to be adjusted to reflect the new order.
 

JonathanH

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Then customer pricing and products will need to be adjusted to reflect the new order.
Many season tickets for longer distance journeys were (and still are) sold at a significant discount to the daily return price. Consequently on some flows there isn't a lot of space to allow for pricing between the day return and the season ticket. The railway doesn't appear to need to reduce its yield if it is filling up trains with its reduced timetable.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Here is proxy for increased levels of commuting relating to UK office occupancy from Remit Consulting research (property research company)

February Has Highest Figures for Average Office Occupancy Since Pandemic Started

but the start fact is even though its at its highest since covid at c35% its still well below where it used to be which was 60-80% and the consensus is it will never return to those levels five days a week. So Harper not entirely wrong but what would be more helpful would be for the DfT to be charged to be responsive to where demand does exist and manage reduced demand over the medium term.
 

BrianW

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To be honest we don't know what the future holds. If you look at the railways in general they have always gone in peaks and troughs of being "busy" and then running virtually empty. People commuting and then not commuting, I think anyone saying that this is the new normal needs to get a grip on reality. Situations and companies change over time, we could see more working from home or we might see a return to the office in 10-15 years time.
I have to agree that we know not the future- even tomorrow. However ... in a world of finite resources, someone has to try to plan for this uncertain future, or a range of possible futures, assessing likelihoods, etc. As said elsewhere, officials advise and politicians decide. Someone has to decide whether and when to order new trains for instance, to scrap, cascade, refurb, increase /decrease maintenance/ renewals/ improvements, etc .. Someone has to bid for budgets against Treasury 'Dead hand'.
Many contributions to this thread testify to known unknowns.
It makes a refreshing change to have data presented and evaluated.
To attempt to inform this discussion at least a little, I can add the following passenger numbers analysis from passenger flows in London and its surrounds.

This is how passenger numbers are spread across the week compared to the average for weekdays (Mondays to Fridays) based on Autumn 2022 data:
Mondays 89% of the average weekday
Tuesdays to Thursdays 104.4%
Fridays 97.7%
Saturdays 87.2%
Sundays 59.5%

I also looked at how much demand occurs at Peaks times on weekdays, so closest to what Mark Harper presumably regards as 'typical office' commuting, although clearly some commuting occurs across the whole day every day of the week. Across the week, 47.7% of all station entries and exits are at 'peak' times (between 0700 and 1000 and between 1600 and 1900).
On Mondays this number was 50.4%
The average for Tuesdays to Thursdays is 48.8%
On Fridays it is only 38.6%

This clearly shows that the weekday peaks are still by some margin the busiest times of any day, even if they have not recovered to quite the same degree. Mondays and Saturdays now have quite similar passenger numbers overall now, but on Mondays half of these are at peak times (44.6% of those in the AM Peak), whereas on Saturdays only 33.6% of the journeys are at times that would be considered 'peak' on weekdays (and only 30% of these are in what would be the 'AM Peak).

Total demand during Autumn 2022 was 79.3% of that during Autumn 2019. This puts us back at 2010 demand levels, that is the current passenger numbers are the same as they were in 2010 overall. The period 2005 to 2013 saw very strong growth (traffic had been growing slowly since the early 1990s up to that point and continued to grow, but more slowly after 2013 up to the start of the pandemic. The trend through 2022 was one of steady recovery throughout.

Interestingly a piece of work I did in 2017 (though limited to one route using 2016 data) found that passenger numbers during Friday peak times were only 89% of the average for peak times across the week, suggesting even then that Working From Home was becoming an option for some office workers...
I expect to see increasing attention being given to, for instance:
Season tickets- pricing, validity
Dynamic pricing
Train lengths, frequencies
Demand management- flattening peaks, filling troughs
The 'customer experience' generally
Decreasing 'taxpayer support'

A piece of graffiti seen on the M40 around the M25 junction asking 'Why do I do this every day?' is being responded to.
 

Krokodil

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The reality is season ticket income is running at less than 50% of what it was pre 2020 and that was a significant source of income whether people chose to travel everyday or not. Now i would say from my local station plenty of passengers have time shifted when they travel and on what day they travel so now buy daily tickets which contributes to the numbers and mustn't be ignored. The industry could do more to match resources to demand but that would cost more overall and as we know the majority of operators simply don't have the rolling stock available to strengthen services. To my mind what we need is passengers pressurising their MPs as that is surest way to get back to DfT that votes are at risk if they don't respond.
Season tickets may be down, but other fares are up so it's not all one way. Remember that season tickets are subsidised so someone purchasing three Anytime Returns in a week will be paying close to the same amount as a weekly on many routes. In fact, on some longer-distance routes if you make one return journey a week at peak times you will be paying the same as you would if you bought monthly seasons.

I think it is going to take a lot for railways to become an electoral issue again. MPs can respond with information about reduced passenger numbers, the support being given to the industry, and the need to manage costs. All fairly easy stock answers.
The train that North Wales MPs get to London on a Monday is being cut by Avanti from May, which should concentrate minds.
 

Edsmith

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Whenever rail usage goes down there's this implicit assumption that it's just something we have to live with, just one of those things, can't be helped...

Rather than any sort of acknowledgment of how excess capacity creates an opportunity to get other people onto trains who were previously excluded, to reduce transport pollution and emissions, to reduce traffic congestion etc.

It's not as if no-one is travelling anymore. There are people out there in cars right now who will use the train with just a bit of work from those making policy.
There was a big boom in leisure travel post pandemic, probably people catching up with all the things that they couldn't do during lockdown but commuting levels are never going to return to what they once were.

I would suggest Mr Harper pays a visit to Ipswich, Manningtree or Colchester (or any GE station) between 0600 and 0830 (Monday -Thursday) and tells the hoards waiting to catch a train to London that commuting isn't returning ! I don't think he'd be very popular, especially with those now finding they have to stand. Of course instead of a monthly season or Anytime tickets many have discovered Advance tickets are great to cut costs - you have to wonder why these are being offered on full & standing services ??
It's easy to quote particular locations at certain times of day but there will be other locations and trains that are far quieter than they once were and as mentioned in another post season ticket income has fallen considerably, certainly I know of many people who don't do the daily commute anymore and maybe go into the office once a week.
 

yorksrob

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I have to agree that we know not the future- even tomorrow. However ... in a world of finite resources, someone has to try to plan for this uncertain future, or a range of possible futures, assessing likelihoods, etc. As said elsewhere, officials advise and politicians decide. Someone has to decide whether and when to order new trains for instance, to scrap, cascade, refurb, increase /decrease maintenance/ renewals/ improvements, etc .. Someone has to bid for budgets against Treasury 'Dead hand'.
Many contributions to this thread testify to known unknowns.
It makes a refreshing change to have data presented and evaluated.

I expect to see increasing attention being given to, for instance:
Season tickets- pricing, validity
Dynamic pricing
Train lengths, frequencies
Demand management- flattening peaks, filling troughs
The 'customer experience' generally
Decreasing 'taxpayer support'

A piece of graffiti seen on the M40 around the M25 junction asking 'Why do I do this every day?' is being responded to.

They don't need to be Mystic Meg to see the recovering demand on InterCity routes such as Cross Country, Great Western and LNER as an example, therefore they should not be withdrawing rolling stock without replacement. There is no excuse for the poor decision making being made by the Government currently.
 

dk1

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Many season tickets for longer distance journeys were (and still are) sold at a significant discount to the daily return price. Consequently on some flows there isn't a lot of space to allow for pricing between the day return and the season ticket. The railway doesn't appear to need to reduce its yield if it is filling up trains with its reduced timetable.

The MD at my TOC has stated that business travel is picking up and that open day return tickets to London are selling strongly. That too was the case well before the pandemic as had started to become a 4 day week for many commuters.
 

43066

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Victorian concepts like season tickets with products that reflect the new patterns of usage and covering service cost.

Season tickets are a Victorian concept? That’s news to me, I renewed my annual a couple of months ago!

I know a few people who have gone back to monthly season tickets as they’re going into work more.

I do agree with the wider point; more flexibility on ticketing reform would be welcome, but AIUI the DfT won’t allow it.

There was a big boom in leisure travel post pandemic, probably people catching up with all the things that they couldn't do during lockdown but commuting levels are never going to return to what they once were.

Give it a few more years and it will be interesting to see.

Assuming continued population growth, eventually the three-or-four-day-per-week commuters will equal or exceed the pre pandemic levels.
 
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Starmill

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The official figures show rail use is at 100% of pre pandemic levels.


As for TPE, the service is so dire and unpredictable that many passengers have simply abandoned travel with them.

6 hr service gaps at Cleethorpes have destroyed any sense of reliability.
Indeed, in the context of the quality of the service at TransPennine Express it's amazing they're doing as well as they are. Of course a small number of people with inter-available tickets may actually be using Northern or others in reality where the model allocates them to TPE, but this is a far smaller effect than it would have been in the past, because now more people will have a Northern only option. I don't think these figures are adjusted to account for the Elizabeth line central section not having been open in 2019 however.

They don't need to be Mystic Meg to see the recovering demand on InterCity routes such as Cross Country, Great Western and LNER as an example, therefore they should not be withdrawing rolling stock without replacement. There is no excuse for the poor decision making being made by the Government currently.
Or parking perfectly compatible rolling stock off lease because they won't pay for it in order to meet the budget squeeze in the case of CrossCountry. Nothing typifies Hunt and Sunak more than that niggardly attitude to services.
 

MattRat

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Or parking perfectly compatible rolling stock off lease because they won't pay for it in order to meet the budget squeeze in the case of CrossCountry. Nothing typifies Hunt and Sunak more than that niggardly attitude to services.
They aren't even good at cutting costs. Short term, maybe, but long term XC would be better off with IETs.

Possibly why they don't think commuting is coming back, because they are using short term models.
 

The Ham

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The reality is season ticket income is running at less than 50% of what it was pre 2020 and that was a significant source of income whether people chose to travel everyday or not. Now i would say from my local station plenty of passengers have time shifted when they travel and on what day they travel so now buy daily tickets which contributes to the numbers and mustn't be ignored. The industry could do more to match resources to demand but that would cost more overall and as we know the majority of operators simply don't have the rolling stock available to strengthen services. To my mind what we need is passengers pressurising their MPs as that is surest way to get back to DfT that votes are at risk if they don't respond.

Season ticket incoming being down doesn't mean that overall income is down (whilst currently it is, it doesn't follow that it always will be).

It should also be noted that there's still ongoing strikes which does hamper people's ability to rely on the railways. Even just the NR strikes being resolved will help significantly.

I suppose it must be different all over the country and saying "commuting isn't coming back" is a broad brush statement which might be correct in places and incorrect in others.

Take my local stations....Northampton, the only busy weekdays seem to be on Tuesday and Wednesday, but even on those days the ground level of the car park is not full and the top level of the meccano car park is empty. Same goes for Bletchley, and Milton Keynes has a new multi storey car park which has never opened as there is no demand.

Consider that commuters from Northampton and Milton Keynes used to pay around £6k for a season ticket (Gold Card), the amount of revenue is now only a fraction of what it was. Passenger numbers on WMT overall are around 65% of pre-covid levels, and that includes an increase in off peak travel versus pre covid level, I think the latest figure for that was around 115%. Therefore commuter traffic for the business sits around 50% of what it was, and for a SE-Centric Commuter type operation, that's a bit hit financially.

Station car parks may not be the most reliable way to measure rail use. For example, of people have to travel to the office less often the time saving over walking vs driving may not be so pronounced (for instance if you can get to the office later and do your hours when WFH to make up the shortfall from the days in the office, the extra 30 minutes for walking both ways when you're in the office may not actually extend your day). Especially given the charges associated with station car parks.

On season tickets others have covered the but about income:

Season tickets may be down, but other fares are up so it's not all one way. Remember that season tickets are subsidised so someone purchasing three Anytime Returns in a week will be paying close to the same amount as a weekly on many routes. In fact, on some longer-distance routes if you make one return journey a week at peak times you will be paying the same as you would if you bought monthly seasons.

If, for example, by people buying individual tickets the TOC's are seeing 90% of income for 60% of usage on a fair chunk of the lost commuting ticket sales then it almost doesn't matter how high or low the remaining season tickets sales are. Yes there's a need for more passengers to get the income up to a reasonable level (be that 2019 or 2023), however if that's reached and season ticket sales are still say at about 60% of what they were, ultimately, what does that matter?

The fact that, even with lots of reductions over what the timetables were before and strikes, passenger use is about 100% (even if only for a few days a fortnight) then the value to make cuts should be more muted than they were 6 months ago.
 

miklcct

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Season tickets may be down, but other fares are up so it's not all one way. Remember that season tickets are subsidised so someone purchasing three Anytime Returns in a week will be paying close to the same amount as a weekly on many routes. In fact, on some longer-distance routes if you make one return journey a week at peak times you will be paying the same as you would if you bought monthly seasons.
TfL has a policy that the day cap is always 1/5 of the weekly Travelcard ticket price, which means people can save money if not commuting 5 days per week if the commute involves Zone 1.
 
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