Commuting 'not coming back': Harper

[JonathanH]

TfL has a policy that the day cap is always 1/5 of the weekly Travelcard ticket price, which means people can save money if not commuting 5 days per week if the commute involves Zone 1.

Put another way, TfL have a policy that someone who travels five days doesn't get a discount for that, relative to travelling fewer days, which makes travelling daily seem expensive.

It wouldn't really be in anyone's interests for season tickets to increase in cost to offset the reduction in fares for daily users, so it is a difficult balance to strike.

The taper generally increases as you go further from London. Applying a multiplier of 220 to the anytime day travelcard price from Winchester (£92.60) would make an annual season cost £20,372, rather than the £7,184 (£179.60 x 40) it currently costs. The off-peak day travelcard is £56.90. The anytime day travelcard isn't going to be reduced to £179.60/5 = £35.90.

It will be interesting to see how the PAYG revolution under Project Oval pitches the fares (although this may not extend as far as Winchester based on previous postings).

 

[bramling]

Season tickets are a Victorian concept? That’s news to me, I renewed my annual a couple of months ago!

I continue to be of the view that the situation with timetables and reliability is suppressing demand.

Speaking personally, I renewed my (discounted) season in good faith with GTR in December 2019. Barely three months later the timetable was slashed, and has never been restored to the level it was. I hardly used that season, finding that travelling by car to work was by far the most expedient option. My view is that I paid up front for a year’s worth of December 2019 levels of service, and didn’t receive that in return.

Since then the service has been through several iterations of amended timetable at various times, and from my station is now essentially an all-day Saturday service. We’ve also had the only remaining comfortable trains withdrawn and scrapped. Add into that the constant disruption caused by industrial action (and of course the occasional engineering work, but to be fair that one is nothing new) and I regard shelling out for a season as a liability. This means I continue to travel by car, and being honest am highly unlikely to return to the train.

I can’t help but feel slightly cheated. With hindsight I should have applied for a refund, however remember wasn’t it three weeks to flatten the curve?…

We certainly flattened the economy.

 

[Snow1964]

TfL Board budget 2023-24 has just been published, and clearly expecting some commuting to come back

Range in Office Work Profile / Peak Service Usage
Recovery in commuting / peak demand, separate from economic factors.
Growth here in the short to medium term will come from increasing occupancy rates on vacant office space in London, attracting a greater number of peak service journeys

Table of scenarios from 65% to 75% (see page 34)

https://board.tfl.gov.uk/documents/s19826/TfL%20Budget%202023-24.pdf

So TfL seem to be expecting some commuting increases.

Incidentally page 7 of same document mentions retaining monthly and annual travelcards, so clearly don't want to cut off possible sources of income.

 

[LOL The Irony]

I wonder what the huge throng of passengers is that gets off trains at Horsham around 6 pm weekdays if not commuters?

Scotch mist? Figments of our imaginations? Paid actors?

This is just proof that the Government are selectively surveying peak travel.

 

[yorksrob]

Or parking perfectly compatible rolling stock off lease because they won't pay for it in order to meet the budget squeeze in the case of CrossCountry. Nothing typifies Hunt and Sunak more than that niggardly attitude to services.

Quite. Sunak could have reversed the situation whereby costs accrue to the DfT and revenues go direct to the treasury at the stroke of a pen, but he fails to do so.

 

[Magdalia]

This is just proof that the Government are selectively surveying peak travel.

It is the people who are drawing conclusions about the whole network on the basis of what they see at one location who are being selective.

What it proves is that lots of people don't know the difference between anecdote and data.

And they are in good company. Look at what has happened today with the inflation figures, where various so called experts made predictions that turned out to be wrong.

 

[miklcct]

Speaking personally, I renewed my (discounted) season in good faith with GTR in December 2019. Barely three months later the timetable was slashed, and has never been restored to the level it was. I hardly used that season, finding that travelling by car to work was by far the most expedient option. My view is that I paid up front for a year’s worth of December 2019 levels of service, and didn’t receive that in return.

This means I continue to travel by car, and being honest am highly unlikely to return to the train.

You must be mad to consider a car commute into central London.

 

[bramling]

It is the people who are drawing conclusions about the whole network on the basis of what they see at one location who are being selective.

What it proves is that lots of people don't know the difference between anecdote and data.

And they are in good company. Look at what has happened today with the inflation figures, where various so called experts made predictions that turned out to be wrong.

On the latter, I do think there's been an element of telling people what they wanted to hear in respect of inflation. Many people on this very forum were predicting inflation would be a consequence of the prolonged Covid response. Now to be fair even if our domestic Covid response had considered this as a risk then it probably wouldn't have made a massive difference simply because the rest of the world was doing similar, however it still should have been predicted. I'm rather cynical about this because of the constant desire to keep interest rates as low as possible, no doubt because governments and institutions like the B of E know how debt has been allowed to build up. So really a case of kicking the can down the road rather than address the root cause.

Perish the thought that similar might be happening with railway usage figures, especially when we know the real issue isn't so much passenger numbers, but revenue having dropped.

 

[Meerkat]

Quite. Sunak could have reversed the situation whereby costs accrue to the DfT and revenues go direct to the treasury at the stroke of a pen, but he fails to do so.

Isn’t this rather overplayed? If DfT could spend money profitably then the Treasury gains by funding DfT to do that. What spending are you proposing that would make money?

 

[al78]

You must be mad to consider a car commute into central London.

I have considered it myself (Farringdon) when the train reliability was at its worst last year. I decided against it because it would be considerably more expensive and almost certainly take longer. I have thought about it if I want to head to Salford for a long weekend with family straight after a day in the Farringdon office. Book a space at Saffron Hill car park, drive in, at the end of the working day head north or north west to the M25. The cost might be comparable to getting the train in and out of Farringdon from Horsham and driving north from there.

 

[Ken H]

Season tickets may be down, but other fares are up so it's not all one way. Remember that season tickets are subsidised so someone purchasing three Anytime Returns in a week will be paying close to the same amount as a weekly on many routes. In fact, on some longer-distance routes if you make one return journey a week at peak times you will be paying the same as you would if you bought monthly seasons.

But people dont buy anytimes. They buy off peaks. Delay setting off in the morning by an hour having done one hr of work at home. Leave for home just before the peak restrictions come in in the evening and do more work at home to make the hours up. Even work on the train

 

[Jimini]

But people dont buy anytimes. They buy off peaks. Delay setting off in the morning by an hour having done one hr of work at home. Leave for home just before the peak restrictions come in in the evening and do more work at home to make the hours up. Even work on the train

I'm not so sure about that. People seem to be (in my experience) buying anytime singles for the journey in (advances if available) then an off-peak ticket back later on in the evening. Certainly that's the vibe / loadings we see on the Brum > Euston corridor.

Another one that seems to be increasingly popular is buying a weekly season and spreading it over two weeks of office travel (Thu / Fri / Tue / Wed for example).

 

[Sleepy]

There was a big boom in leisure travel post pandemic, probably people catching up with all the things that they couldn't do during lockdown but commuting levels are never going to return to what they once were.


It's easy to quote particular locations at certain times of day but there will be other locations and trains that are far quieter than they once were and as mentioned in another post season ticket income has fallen considerably, certainly I know of many people who don't do the daily commute anymore and maybe go into the office once a week.

Absolutely agree it varies across different TOCs across the country and revenue as a whole is down compared to pre-Covid. However should routes that are extremely busy by any measure not have more services reinstated even though for example a Northern rural route is carrying reduced numbers ?

 

[Dr Hoo]

It’s not about fulfilment and sales channels (moving from paper and face to face to digital). It’s now about replacing Victorian concepts like season tickets with products that reflect the new patterns of usage and covering service cost.

Given that the Canterbury & Whitstable Railway introduced season tickets in 1834, shouldn't they be described as a Georgian concept?

 

[MikeWM]

I certainly don't expect to ever buy a 'real' annual season ever again. Even when commuting 5 days a week *and* making the same journey most weekends, and with a 10% discount scheme from Travel4Cambridgeshire (which seems to have been quietly discontinued), the value of getting an Ely->Cambridge annual was marginal for me, and I mostly got it to save the hassle of having to buy tickets every day.

Now I'm commuting approximately three days a week, and that appears to be pretty much the long-term plan while I'm at my present company, I can't remotely justify an Ely->Cambridge season anymore.

But given the time I do commute, 3 days a week or so, it turns out the best solution for me is a 'cheap' Gold Card, so for the second year running I've just bought an annual Lichfield Trent Valley -> Lichfield City. (Yes, I know marginally cheaper ones are available, but that is a journey I may actually want to make a few times a year, so...)

I do often get comments when my tickets are checked, usually along the lines of 'we don't see many gold cards anymore'.

 

[jon0844]

Station car parks may not be the most reliable way to measure rail use. For example, of people have to travel to the office less often the time saving over walking vs driving may not be so pronounced (for instance if you can get to the office later and do your hours when WFH to make up the shortfall from the days in the office, the extra 30 minutes for walking both ways when you're in the office may not actually extend your day). Especially given the charges associated with station car parks.

If you're hybrid working, a car park season ticket is going to have the same issues as a train season - so you may well decide not to park if you now have to pay extortionate daily rates instead. If you can travel off-peak, parking might be cheaper so I wonder how quickly a car park fills up now?

You might also be able to get to the station by bus, given many buses don't run early enough to get people to the station for an early start - but are likely fine for getting to a station at 0930. Perhaps that could help local buses and keep some running?

And then there's the question of how many people now cycle. During Covid, many people got folding bikes and took them to London to avoid the tube. Once people get into cycling and realise they can do it in almost all weathers, there's a chance that will see a drop in cars.

 

[Watershed]

I continue to be of the view that the situation with timetables and reliability is suppressing demand.

Speaking personally, I renewed my (discounted) season in good faith with GTR in December 2019. Barely three months later the timetable was slashed, and has never been restored to the level it was. I hardly used that season, finding that travelling by car to work was by far the most expedient option. My view is that I paid up front for a year’s worth of December 2019 levels of service, and didn’t receive that in return.

Since then the service has been through several iterations of amended timetable at various times, and from my station is now essentially an all-day Saturday service. We’ve also had the only remaining comfortable trains withdrawn and scrapped. Add into that the constant disruption caused by industrial action (and of course the occasional engineering work, but to be fair that one is nothing new) and I regard shelling out for a season as a liability. This means I continue to travel by car, and being honest am highly unlikely to return to the train.

I can’t help but feel slightly cheated. With hindsight I should have applied for a refund, however remember wasn’t it three weeks to flatten the curve?…

We certainly flattened the economy.

In most cases, there would likely have been a case for a full, pro-rata refund given the substantial reduction in the timetable - not something which could in any way have been envisaged when the season ticket was purchased. However, if you held onto your season ticket and continued using it, this will likely extinguish any realistic prospect of recovering anything.

 

[yorksrob]

Isn’t this rather overplayed? If DfT could spend money profitably then the Treasury gains by funding DfT to do that. What spending are you proposing that would make money?

Well, the movers and shakers in the rail delivery group don't seem to think so.

Just running the service with as near to adequate capacity as can be mustered would do something to bring back paying passengers.

 

[Elecman]

I do agree with the wider point; more flexibility on ticketing reform would be welcome, but AIUI the DfT won’t allow it.

i think it’s more the Treasury won’t allow it

 

[notverydeep]

Speaking personally, I renewed my (discounted) season in good faith with GTR in December 2019. Barely three months later the timetable was slashed, and has never been restored to the level it was. I hardly used that season, finding that travelling by car to work was by far the most expedient option. My view is that I paid up front for a year’s worth of December 2019 levels of service, and didn’t receive that in return.

I was able to cancel my season ticket (also GTR 'industry' Discounted - probably starting the same date as yours) in April 2020 - including the cancellation and refund being back dated to the start of the lockdown. I didn't resume having a similar season ticket until mid 2022. I am guessing it probably isn't possible this far after the fact though...

 

[Meerkat]

Just running the service with as near to adequate capacity as can be mustered would do something to bring back paying passengers.

That costs money.

 

[JamesT]

If we’re going by anecdote, there are two of my colleagues who were full time rail commuters. One now comes in one week a month, the other maybe two days a week, usually off-peak unless there’s something specific that needs an early start.
It seems very unlikely that either would return to their old commuting pattern.

 

[bramling]

In most cases, there would likely have been a case for a full, pro-rata refund given the substantial reduction in the timetable - not something which could in any way have been envisaged when the season ticket was purchased. However, if you held onto your season ticket and continued using it, this will likely extinguish any realistic prospect of recovering anything.

I did use it occasionally, but would have ditched it had I known the Dec 19 timetable was never going to return.

Being discounted my losses were to an extent more limited than they might otherwise have been. However I’d have been pretty unhappy if it was a full rate season.

My issues now are I’m not prepared to return until such time as something comparable to Dec 19 returns (which may well be never), nor whilst there is the current level of unreliability, and I still have the nagging feeling that there is too much volatility with the timetabling. For example I could buy a season in December and find a whole load of cuts in May. Indeed the previous load of cuts made to GTR services were detrimental to me (for example Brighton-Cambridge additional evening stops at Welwyn etc).

 

[Starmill]

I was able to cancel my season ticket (also GTR 'industry' Discounted - probably starting the same date as yours) in April 2020 - including the cancellation and refund being back dated to the start of the lockdown. I didn't resume having a similar season ticket until mid 2022. I am guessing it probably isn't possible this far after the fact though...

The back-dating was indeed generally available i.e. not only for reduced rate tickets. Refunds need to be applied for within 28 days generally, although some extensions may have been granted. If the ticket were still being used however, even if only occasionally, then this would be in exchange for giving up that refund eligibility. Choose wisely and all that.

 

[43066]

That costs money.

Well yes, obviously. Running the railway at all costs money!

The point being made is that penny pinching and making the service unusable or unbearably overcrowded will suppress passenger numbers (and revenue) in the long run.

 

[Bald Rick]

There’s an awful lot of conjecture on this thread. Some facts from the last full 4 weekly financial period, which did not involve any strikes and head better weather than the comparative period in 2019 (I can’t link the source, you’ll have to trust me, and may choose not to…)

1) revenue was still below 90%
2) journeys were between 90-100%
3) yield per journey is lower, despite the fare rise of 15% compound since 2019
4) business revenue is around a third of what it was
5) commuting revenue is under 90%, but numbers under 70%, a huge yield increase due to people swapping from seasons to anytime tickets
6) leisure revenue is over 100% (but not much)
7) all of the comparisons are in absolute £

Finally, as I keep writing, the Elizabeth line is a significant factor in all this. It lifts journey numbers by 15%, but revenue only by 3%, which also suppresses yield; without the additional Elizabeth Line passengers yield would be higher than in 2019, but not higher than the fare rises would imply. The biggest market segment affected is leisure.

What does it all mean? It means that even including the 15% extra passengers attracted to ‘national rail’ by the Elizabeth Line, there are fewer people travelling, and on average paying rather less per journey (and making shorter journeys). This is going to mean revenue is £2bn down this year compared to 2019, although the current ‘run rate’ means that will be roughly a billion for next year. However, and again, that is comparing money from 4 years ago with money now; in a ‘no Covid’ alternative universe revenue would have been around £2bn higher this year than 2019.

 

[SamYeager]

The point being made is that penny pinching and making the service unusable or unbearably overcrowded will suppress passenger numbers (and revenue) in the long run.

Given the general distrust and, in some cases, hostility to the current government from various posters on this thread I'm surprised nobody has yet claimed that's their policy.

 

[43066]

There’s an awful lot of conjecture on this thread. Some facts from the last full 4 weekly financial period, which did not involve any strikes and head better weather than the comparative period in 2019 (I can’t link the source, you’ll have to trust me, and may choose not to…)

1) revenue was still below 90%
2) journeys were between 90-100%
3) yield per journey is lower, despite the fare rise of 15% compound since 2019
4) business revenue is around a third of what it was
5) commuting revenue is under 90%, but numbers under 70%, a huge yield increase due to people swapping from seasons to anytime tickets
6) leisure revenue is over 100% (but not much)
7) all of the comparisons are in absolute £

It would be interesting to know to what extent the timetable reductions that have taken place have contributed to this. I suppose that is ultimately unknowable.

This is going to mean revenue is £2bn down this year compared to 2019, although the current ‘run rate’ means that will be roughly a billion for next year. However, and again, that is comparing money from 4 years ago with money now; in a ‘no Covid’ alternative universe revenue would have been around £2bn higher this year than 2019.

But ultimately the “no Covid” alternative realty doesn’t exist, so I don’t understand this obsession with saying “this is where we should be”.

£2bn will just need to be swallowed, and is absolute chicken feed in comparison with many areas of recent government expenditure which also wouldn’t have occurred in the “no Covid” scenario, such as £40bn squandered on test and trade, which didn’t even work… Yet nobody ever talks about that anymore!

Given the general distrust and, in some cases, hostility to the current government from various posters on this thread I'm surprised nobody has yet claimed that's their policy.

The current government’s policy is certainly to look for short term savings, with no regard for how this affects usability, or potential future passenger growth. I don’t think anyone could seriously argue otherwise?

I continue to be of the view that the situation with timetables and reliability is suppressing demand.

Speaking personally, I renewed my (discounted) season in good faith with GTR in December 2019. Barely three months later the timetable was slashed, and has never been restored to the level it was. I hardly used that season, finding that travelling by car to work was by far the most expedient option. My view is that I paid up front for a year’s worth of December 2019 levels of service, and didn’t receive that in return.

Since then the service has been through several iterations of amended timetable at various times, and from my station is now essentially an all-day Saturday service. We’ve also had the only remaining comfortable trains withdrawn and scrapped. Add into that the constant disruption caused by industrial action (and of course the occasional engineering work, but to be fair that one is nothing new) and I regard shelling out for a season as a liability. This means I continue to travel by car, and being honest am highly unlikely to return to the train.

Fully agreed. The only thing forcing people back is the fact they most can’t commute by car (you’re a shift worker with parking, so have more of a choice!).

 

[Meerkat]

But ultimately the “no Covid” alternative realty doesn’t exist, so I don’t understand this obsession with saying “this is where we should be”.

Because significant investment in trains (and infrastructure??) has been made to accommodate that no Covid reality, so it does really matter.

£2bn will just need to be swallowed, and is absolute chicken feed in comparison with many areas of recent government expenditure which also wouldn’t have occurred in the “no Covid” scenario, such as £40bn squandered on test and trade, which didn’t even work…

It just discredits your arguments to call £2bn chicken feed

Edited to remove chomp - I don’t think making very controversial statements re Covid is constructive here

 

[Magdalia]

Finally, as I keep writing, the Elizabeth line is a significant factor in all this. It lifts journey numbers by 15%, but revenue only by 3%, which also suppresses yield; without the additional Elizabeth Line passengers yield would be higher than in 2019, but not higher than the fare rises would imply.

It is clear that the Elizabeth Line is a big discontinuity that makes comparison between 2019 and now a challenge.

But that 15% figure: is that all Elizabeth Line journeys, or just Elizabeth Line journeys that are genuinely new? And what about journeys that have migrated from TfL, how are they counted?

To put it another way, surely lots of Elizabeth Line journeys have been displaced from Shenfield-Liverpool Street, Abbey Wood-Cannon Street/Charing Cross, Reading/Heathrow-Paddington etc that were all in the 2019 figures?