Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[westv]

I really don't think the EU would laugh at us when we do decide to rejoin. Their view was one of sadness that we left, not anger.

 

[Western Sunset]

And bewilderment...

 

[Typhoon]

Had vaguely heard of the name but didn't know who he was, but looking at his Twitter handle:


Nuff said, no surprise at all if he's pro-Johnson.

There is more to him than that - former deputy leader of UKIP (2006-2010), contested the leadership but beaten by Farage, then swapped to Conservatives (2011 - the pro-EU Cameron being PM).

From his Twitter feed (25/07/18):-

It is about time we brought the Treason Act up to date and made it apply to those seeking to destroy or undermine the British state. That means extreme jihadis. It also means those in future actively working undemocratically against U.K. through extreme EU loyalty

My emphasis, it is a long thread and I'm not certain he ever answers what he means by 'extreme EU loyalty', it is not as though Remainers superglued themselves to Portcullis House; they, by and large, presented arguments indicating the implications of Brexit, many of which have turned out to be accurate, in whole or in part.

 

[najaB]

I really don't think the EU would laugh at us when we do decide to rejoin. Their view was one of sadness that we left, not anger.

They would laugh at the idea that anyone thinks that the UK is in a fit state to re-join. Politically and, as time goes on, even economically.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

They would laugh at the idea that anyone thinks that the UK is in a fit state to re-join. Politically and, as time goes on, even economically.

Politically... agreed. It wouldn't be sensible for the EU to consider having the UK rejoin unless there was a clear and widespread political consensus within the UK that we should - after all the last thing the EU would want is the hassle of the UK rejoining only to find the UK is asking for another Brexit 10 years later. That consensus does not exist, and frankly I can't see it coming about any time in the foreseeable future.

Economically... uh? That doesn't make sense. Remember, the EU allowed countries like Romania, Poland, and Greece to join at a time when those countries were massively poorer than typical EU countries. Even allowing for that Brexit has caused some economic harm to the UK (a few % of GDP), I don't think anyone seriously believes that Brexit would reduce the UK to the levels of - say - post-communist Romania. I think perhaps you're letting your anti-Brexit instincts get carried away on that one

 

[jfollows]

Rumour of "a third Tory MP resignation" tonight, but no names yet.

Nigel Adams
Selby & Ainsty. Also rumoured to be a recipient of something from Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.

 

[Typhoon]

A frontrunner to become the Tories' mayoral candidate has been blocked from making the party's candidate long list this weekend.

Samuel Kasumu, who received widespread coverage in the media, has failed to make the long list of eight potential candidates, which will be whittled down to three by tomorrow.

Far from taking the rejection as a personal blow, a senior source in Mr Kasumu's camp has accused Tory HQ of blocking his candidacy over close links to Boris Johnson.

Mr Kasumu was a former race adviser in Mr Johnson's Downing Street operation and had received top profile endorsements from close Boris allies, including former Home Secretary Priti Patel.

The move by CCHQ to block Mr Kasumu came less than 24 hours after Mr Johnson resigned as an MP, launching an astonishing blind side at Rishi Sunak's premiership.

Oh dear me!

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...tp&cvid=6d97b386bd2843758f27cea136245ade&ei=6

'Frontrunner' - never heard of him. I've seen three lists and have heard of four other candidates. Endorsement by Priti Patel is hardly a game changer, she was a failure. we have moved on. Still his reasoning (underlined) is straight out of the Boris Johnson handbook ('Its not me, its in this case who I used to work for'.).

 

[brad465]

Nigel Adams
Selby & Ainsty. Also rumoured to be a recipient of something from Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.

We now have a situation where more resignations exist than "office of profits" under the Crown, which is the archaic means of allowing an MP to resign outside of GEs.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Nigel Adams
Selby & Ainsty. Also rumoured to be a recipient of something from Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.

2nd time in 2 days I've got my news from a railforums post instead of from an actual news website

That looks like an ultra-safe Tory seat - they were on 60.3% of the vote in 2019. Unlike Mid Bedfordshire, the 2nd place challenger is pretty clear: Labour. I suspect that'll help the Tories a bit because there'll be some Tory voters who would've swapped to the LibDems but would be reluctant to swap to Labour. And generally speaking, Labour usually isn't capable of pulling off the kinds of spectacular by-election swings that the LibDems can often do. Even so, given how volatile things are at the moment, I wouldn't be that confident of the Tories holding on in a by-election even here: Although I would expect that if they lost it to Labour in a by-election, they'd easily get it back at the next general election (ignoring boundary changes so assuming the seat will still exist - I haven't checked that).

 

[Gloster]

We now have a situation where more resignations exist than "office of profits" under the Crown, which is the archaic means of allowing an MP to resign outside of GEs.

That is not a problem: they just appoint the next resigning MP to the post and the incumbent is automatically turfed out. On 17 December 1985 there were no less than eight appointments to the position of Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds (and seven for the Manor of Northstead) when the Democratic and Ulster Unionists decided to protest against the Anglo-Irish Agreement.

 

[brad465]

2nd time in 2 days I've got my news from a railforums post instead of from an actual news website

That looks like an ultra-safe Tory seat - they were on 60.3% of the vote in 2019. Unlike Mid Bedfordshire, the 2nd place challenger is pretty clear: Labour. I suspect that'll help the Tories a bit because there'll be some Tory voters who would've swapped to the LibDems but would be reluctant to swap to Labour. And generally speaking, Labour usually isn't capable of pulling off the kinds of spectacular by-election swings that the LibDems can often do. Even so, given how volatile things are at the moment, I wouldn't be that confident of the Tories holding on in a by-election even here: Although I would expect that if they lost it to Labour in a by-election, they'd easily get it back at the next general election (ignoring boundary changes so assuming the seat will still exist - I haven't checked that).

While it is a difficult swing, the former Selby constituency was Labour during the last Labour Government, however I suspect the 2010 boundary changes also added some areas that are typically more Tory. I do think all these by-elections happening now means Labour are more likely to leave Mid-Befordshire alone for the Lib Dems and focus on the other 2 from Johnson loyalists, and Margaret Ferrier's when that expected by-election is confirmed.

 

[david1212]

It's been said before, but our FPTP voting system is currently a barrier to getting new politicians and new politics.

Indeed

It would be good if Boris did start or join another party. We need another viable party on the centre right to split the Conservative vote.

Partly right in that we need a new party of MP's who genuinely put the country and the citizens first. That excludes Mr Boris Johnson.

 

[DustyBin]

Politically... agreed. It wouldn't be sensible for the EU to consider having the UK rejoin unless there was a clear and widespread political consensus within the UK that we should - after all the last thing the EU would want is the hassle of the UK rejoining only to find the UK is asking for another Brexit 10 years later. That consensus does not exist, and frankly I can't see it coming about any time in the foreseeable future.

Economically... uh? That doesn't make sense. Remember, the EU allowed countries like Romania, Poland, and Greece to join at a time when those countries were massively poorer than typical EU countries. Even allowing for that Brexit has caused some economic harm to the UK (a few % of GDP), I don't think anyone seriously believes that Brexit would reduce the UK to the levels of - say - post-communist Romania. I think perhaps you're letting your anti-Brexit instincts get carried away on that one

But we’re finished economically, set to become the new Moldova. Furthermore, the UK is a miserable, insignificant little island and everybody hates us. Come on, get with the programme!

 

[Gloster]

While it is a difficult swing, the former Selby constituency was Labour during the last Labour Government, however I suspect the 2010 boundary changes also added some areas that are typically more Tory. I do think all these by-elections happening now means Labour are more likely to leave Mid-Befordshire alone for the Lib Dems and focus on the other 2 from Johnson loyalists, and Margaret Ferrier's when that expected by-election is confirmed.

This was the main reason given by John Grogan, the Labour MP 1997-2010, for not standing in 2010. He had a 3,386 majority in 1997, but it was down to 467 in 2005, which suggests that even before the boundary changes it was generally Conservative territory.

 

[Tetchytyke]

So if not mid-Beds, where?

The delightful Crispin Blunt is standing down next time, and Reigate is a true-blue seat.
Henley was once his, and the sitting MP is also standing down so maybe he'll return there.

The outgoing MP for Henley has said he’ll allow Johnson to stand “over my dead body”, so probably not there, but who knows.

I can imagine CCHQ putting pressure on local associations to not select Johnson, just as Labour have made sure their persona non grata are gone. But the Mid-Beds association looked at Nadine Dorries and thought “there’s a stable, sensible, respectable politician for our constituency”, so who knows!

 

[DarloRich]

A no mark Tory MP/Johnson fanboy I have never heard of has resigned to force a third by election. His name is Nigel Adams and I think he is MP for Little Snoddignton on sea or somewhere.

( I don't actually get this one - His Selby and Ainsty seat is solid Tory. The kind of place they weigh Tory votes. it is rural (ish) and decently affluent for that part of Yorkshire. His majority must be 20000. Surely all this does is allow Sunak to get one of his people into a safe seat)

EDIT - the Tories already have a candidate in this seat as the MP said he was standing down - this just seems a bit of cheap publicity for a bland departing MP

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The danger here is the Tories blow themselves up and Labour just get in by default and become equally big headed like Blair did in 97. What the country needs a different democratic system that better reflects the views of its citizens but neither Labour nor the Tories would ever agree to that.

 

[najaB]

I think perhaps you're letting your anti-Brexit instincts get carried away on that one

I did say "as time goes on". If, as the pro-Brexit crowd wants, we turn our economy into 'Singapore-on-Thames' then we would increasingly be subject to the convergence criteria that are applied to new members joining the EU.

 

[DarloRich]

The danger here is the Tories blow themselves up and Labour just get in by default and become equally big headed like Blair did in 97. What the country needs a different democratic system that better reflects the views of its citizens but neither Labour nor the Tories would ever agree to that.

I will happily take the next 3 elections as Labour victories, especially with a landslide like that of 97. Seems a great deal. Thanks.

 

[Gloster]

In the general chaos it seems that one thing has slipped under the radar: Stanley Johnson didn‘t get his much-touted knighthood. Nepotism was probably a step too far.

 

[dgl]

When people complain about the past Labour government we have to remember that whilst the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were stupid in hindsight most of the other things Labour did were actually pretty good. Of course the Conservatives came in and trashed the recovery of the economy so we are where we are.
More Labour victories?, yes please. They have at least got to be less "help our mates" than the current lot.

 

[D6130]

The danger here is the Tories blow themselves up and Labour just get in by default and become equally big headed like Blair did in 97. What the country needs a different democratic system that better reflects the views of its citizens but neither Labour nor the Tories would ever agree to that.

Fully agree!

 

[nw1]

I did say "as time goes on". If, as the pro-Brexit crowd wants, we turn our economy into 'Singapore-on-Thames' then we would increasingly be subject to the convergence criteria that are applied to new members joining the EU.

Of course if the economy does suffer long-term damage as a result of Johnson's Hard Brexit, I suspect that more and more people will want to become closer to the EU again.

But for pro-EU people I suspect the main desire is not rejoining, but just becoming more friendly with the EU again, and restoring our country's good name on the continent. I don't know for sure, but I suspect that the governments of many continental countries don't really see us as a friendly country at the moment, and that's certainly not an image I want to see perpetuated in the medium term, never mind the long term. But it'll only change once we put the Johnson-Truss-Sunak era to bed once and for all and bring back pragmatic governments who want to, well maybe not rejoin, but enjoy a similar relationship to the EU as the likes of Switzerland or Norway, albeit outside Schengen.

I suspect also that when the ETIAS scheme is introduced, and holidaymakers are treated to US-style hard immigration controls when they go to the continent, that will also turn the popular tide against Hard Brexit.

 

[Cowley]

We seem to be discussing rejoining the EU here quite a bit and that’s not really related to the thread (mainly as it’s unlikely to happen with this government).
Could we move that stuff over to Brexit thread from now please:

Brexit matters

I cannot find an open Brexit thread on the website so have opened this one for all and sundry to use. However, at a later date, the forum staff say that I am not to participate on the thread.

www.railforums.co.uk

Thanks

 

[nw1]

Fully agree!

Quite.

Labour really ought to agree to a different system, such as some form of PR, as it will be in their interests.

It would make the chance of Labour-Lib Dem coalitions considerably higher. If we get a typical "Tory victory" result of say Tories 43%, Labour 33%, Lib Dem 15% and others 9% then under PR, Labour and the Lib Dems would have more MPs than the Tories and could form a coalition.

Elections such as 1983 and 1987 are really quite deceptive. UK adults in these years were not all rabid Thatcherites, and both of those elections - even 1983 - saw more Labour and (as was) Alliance votes combined than Tory ones. The dominance of Thatcher was brought about by one thing - FPTP.

FPTP only benefits one party, the Tories, due to the prime division in UK politics, away from the nationalists, arguably being Tory vs. non-Tory. So as soon as we get a non-Tory government it really is in their interest to change things.

A no mark Tory MP/Johnson fanboy I have never heard of has resigned to force a third by election. His name is Nigel Adams and I think he is MP for Little Snoddignton on sea or somewhere.

It's a shame this one has resigned, and not the MP for Reading West which would be a dead-cert Labour gain.

I have actually heard of him, though can't remember why. I think he annoyed me. Ah, I think I've just found out why but it relates to Steve Bray and a topic we've been warned off discussing so will stop there.

 

[johncrossley]

The Tories have actually quietly removed the remaining fair elections we have in England. The mayoral elections last month were the first mayoral elections since the start of devolution to use first past the post. Using FPTP for these elections is not as problematic as for the House of Commons, but a quick look through past elections on Wikipedia shows that past mayoral elections in Mansfield would have had a different result under FPTP.

 

[nlogax]

I do hope last night's histrionics in Johnson's resignation letter finally puts paid to the 'I like Boris, he's a great bunch of lads / very entertaining / decent politician' crud we've all seen too much of over the years. Time's up and now everyone can see him for who he really is; an entitled, lying, whiney manchild.

The most positive thing I can say about him is that his behaviour is sure to add some extra heft to the walloping Sunak and co will receive at the next GE. Bring it on.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed



Partly right in that we need a new party of MP's who genuinely put the country and the citizens first. That excludes Mr Boris Johnson.

The danger here is the Tories blow themselves up and Labour just get in by default and become equally big headed like Blair did in 97. What the country needs a different democratic system that better reflects the views of its citizens but neither Labour nor the Tories would ever agree to that.

Yes, this would be good in the longer term, but for me the first priority is expelling this Government.

 

[Busaholic]

The outgoing MP for Henley has said he’ll allow Johnson to stand “over my dead body”, so probably not there, but who knows.

I can imagine CCHQ putting pressure on local associations to not select Johnson, just as Labour have made sure their persona non grata are gone. But the Mid-Beds association looked at Nadine Dorries and thought “there’s a stable, sensible, respectable politician for our constituency”, so who knows!

According to today's Times, CCHQ makes the final decision on selections, and it would be 'unthinkable' that anyone the PM vetoed would be allowed to stand. I suspect Johnson has already triggered sufficient 'alerts' in his statements and utterances that he could be held to be in contravention of his party's rules on continued membership, should they have the cajoules to kick him out, which is highly unlikely.

 

[Purple Train]

We now have a situation where more resignations exist than "office of profits" under the Crown, which is the archaic means of allowing an MP to resign outside of GEs.

Such a situation also occurred in 1985 when Ulster Unionist MPs staged a "walkout" in protest against the Anglo-Irish Agreement. In that case, appointees were immediately dismissed after appointment to be replaced by the next in line, which is what I presume will happen this time.