Confirmed : HS2 West Midlands-Manchester line to be scrapped and replaced with other projects.

[paul1609]

Rumour has it that the knowledge that Burnham has connections to Golborne made it a most likely candidate to be chosen for cancellation.

Who / what is Burnham?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

It does feel that way. Yes please drive, welcome to our ULEZ zone.

Is it true that there will still be emissions of sorts from vehicles when the next generation of these are the norm?

Who / what is Burnham?

The Mayor of Greater Manchester would be most annoyed that his surname is not universally known by one and all...

 

[Strathclyder]

As I have said before, I expect something similar to 1992 or perhaps 1974, at the next election, not 1997.

HS2 itself isn't the main issue with respect to the outcome of the next election, it's just one more showcase of this government's utterly cack-handed approach to governing. A drop in the ocean perhaps, but it's emblematic of the phrase 'the short-term price of everything and long-term value of nothing'.

I'd frankly be surprised if the next election's outcome is at all like 1992, given how much this flock of goons trying and failing to pass as a functioning government have hacked so many in this country off.

 

[Sonik]

Virtually all Tory voters don't live in or very close to those cities and they resent funding what they see as a white elephant for the benefit of tbose who do live in or very close to those cities.

As I have said before, I expect something similar to 1992 or perhaps 1974, at the next election, not 1997.

There are a string of Tory constituencies right up and down the WCML. I live in one.

Funnily enough, my long serving Tory MP won't be standing at the next election, along with a large number of other Tory MPs in marginal seats. I'm glad you have more confidence in Sunak than they do. And care to consider the Tory chances of holding places like Derby or Crewe?

But regardless, the collapse of the SNP will likely put Starmer in number 10 on it's own, regardless of any HS2 effect.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

There are a string of Tory constituencies right up and down the WCML. I live in one.

Funnily enough, my long term MP won't be standing standing at the next election, along with a large number of other Tory MPs in marginal seats. I'm glad you have more confidence in Sunak than they do.

And care to consider the Tory party chances of holding places like Derby or Crewe, which are both existing seats?

The matter that many people conveniently forget, is the Labour Party were to blame for losing so many seats because there was an internal attempt by the Momentum movement to move the political agenda of the Labour Party and establish a figurehead such as Corbyn. Reaping and sowing suddenly spring to mind.

 

[ChrisC]

There are a string of Tory constituencies right up and down the WCML. I live in one.

Funnily enough, my long serving Tory MP won't be standing at the next election, along with a large number of other Tory MPs in marginal seats. I'm glad you have more confidence in Sunak than they do.

And care to consider the Tory party chances of holding places like Derby or Crewe, which are both existing seats?

That’s also very much the case in large parts of the East Midlands and Yorkshire. Perhaps I have a short memory, but I don’t seem to remember quite such an outcry when the Eastern part of HS2 was axed and just the spur as far as East Midlands Parkway was proposed to be retained. It may be because journeys from London to the centre of cities along this route were not significantly cut in comparison to the ECML and the MML. I always saw the main advantage of the eastern section as a game changer in cutting journey times between cities like Nottingham, Sheffield, Leeds, Birmingham. The cancelling of the route north of East Midlands Parkway lost the opportunity for fast journeys from the West and East Midlands to Yorkshire. Now that even the stub to East Midlands Parkway has been cut the shorter journey times between Nottingham and Birmingham have also been lost.

 

[Sonik]

The matter that many people conveniently forget, is the Labour Party were to blame for losing so many seats because there was an internal attempt by the Momentum movement to move the political agenda of the Labour Party and establish a figurehead such as Corbyn. Reaping and sowing suddenly spring to mind.

I don't disagree at all. But the situation is now entirely reversed, with Sunak appealling to the lunatic fringe and Starmer to the mainstream.

That’s also very much the case in large parts of the East Midlands and Yorkshire. Perhaps I have a short memory, but I don’t seem to remember quite such an outcry when the Eastern part of HS2 was axed and just the spur as far as East Midlands Parkway was proposed to be retained. It may be because journeys from London to the centre of cities along this route were not significantly cut in comparison to the ECML and the MML. I always saw the main advantage of the eastern section as a game changer in cutting journey times between cities like Nottingham, Sheffield, Leeds, Birmingham. The cancelling of the route north of East Midlands Parkway lost the opportunity for fast journeys from the West and East Midlands to Yorkshire. Now that even the stub to East Midlands Parkway has been cut the shorter journey times between Nottingham and Birmingham have also been lost.

The Eastern leg was much less controversial because Nottingham and Derby actually benefited from direct HS2 trains from the IRP offer, and Sheffield was no worse off. The main loser was Leeds

Contrast with today with total loss of service to all these places, and the threat of thousands of job losses at Litchucrch Lane, and what happens to the Alstom investment at Crewe?

HS2 was an economic/jobs stimulus with suppliers carefully spread all around the UK, so it stands to reason that the fallout from cancellation will be spread out too.

 

[paul1609]

The Mayor of Greater Manchester would be most annoyed that his surname is not universally known by one and all...

Ah a mayor, presumably hes in charge of the twinning committee with the obscure French Town and taking the salute at the sea cadets march past?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Ah a mayor, presumably hes in charge of the twinning committee with the obscure French Town and taking the salute at the sea cadets march past?

After Sadiq Khan in Greater London, Andy Burnham is the most powerful Mayor in the country.
He also lobbies hard for improved transport on his Greater Manchester patch, along with like-minded Mayors Steve Rotheram (Liverpool City Region) and Tracy Brabin (West Yorkshire).
They will be key to how the HS2-substitute money is spent across the north.

 

[Howardh]

The whole HS2 cock-up would make a fantastic comedy series, similar to The Thick of it, W1A 1AA and 2012 and Yes Minister..

Probably end up being a TV one-off; trouble is there are so many channels if there was one about Covid cock-ups (too serious to really be called cock-ups though, more maladministration etc) I've missed it.

Panaorama one-hour special??

I’m confused regarding Handsacre. Presumably Euston - Manchester services will run as now. Then if you have northbound HS2 OOC -Manchester services , will they all be pathed via Stoke? Is there capacity? Also the Handsacre-Colwich section capacity. They can’t go through Shugborough and via Stafford can they? Double track will bottleneck traffic?

Manchester - Euston could be stopping trains like London Northwestern (who could take over the franchise??) taking 3+ hrs, so those wanting the faster journey would take dedicated HS1.5 trains to OOC, but who would run them? If it were today Avanti??

 

[class26]

After Sadiq Khan in Greater London, Andy Burnham is the most powerful Mayor in the country.
He also lobbies hard for improved transport on his Greater Manchester patch, along with like-minded Mayors Steve Rotheram (Liverpool City Region) and Tracy Brabin (West Yorkshire).
They will be key to how the HS2-substitute money is spent across the north.

andy burnham just has the biggest mouth !

 

[30907]

£12 billion high speed gets people from Leeds,  Airedale, York, Newcastle, Hull... to Manchester, Liverpool, Preston... 20 minutes quicker.
Vs
£1 billion metro gets people from (most of) Leeds to Manchester etc 20 Minutes quicker and gets people from (outer) Leeds to Leeds 20 minutes quicker.

Corrected!
Not that there was any reason why we couldn't do both, as originally proposed.

 

[The Planner]

I’m confused regarding Handsacre. Presumably Euston - Manchester services will run as now. Then if you have northbound HS2 OOC -Manchester services , will they all be pathed via Stoke? Is there capacity? Also the Handsacre-Colwich section capacity. They can’t go through Shugborough and via Stafford can they? Double track will bottleneck traffic?

No, two of the current Euston Manchesters will move to HS2, could well be all of them. As to which way they go, thats still up for grabs. I suspect it will still be two via Stoke. Colwich is a known issue.

Manchester - Euston could be stopping trains like London Northwestern (who could take over the franchise??) taking 3+ hrs, so those wanting the faster journey would take dedicated HS1.5 trains to OOC, but who would run them? If it were today Avanti??

No, do a search on the west coast partnership.

 

[Noddy]

It wouldn’t.
The reduction from the full scheme was claimed to be 49 minutes for Euston to Glasgow. But Phase 1 saves 14 minutes for Manchester trains, so presumably would do the same for Glasgow. Which implies Handsacre to Golborne saves 35 minutes.

I think you are confusing Glasgow and Edinburgh (via WCML) times. Even with the full route to Golbourne I think it was only claimed to save about 30 minutes. Edinburgh was claimed to save about 50 minutes.

 

[JamesT]

I think you are confusing Glasgow and Edinburgh (via WCML) times. Even with the full route to Golbourne I think it was only claimed to save about 30 minutes. Edinburgh was claimed to save about 50 minutes.

View attachment 144353

I was reading off the table on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Speed_2#To_other_stations

 

[Nottingham59]

Unfortunately the source link is now broken, but it also says the saving to Crewe was 34 minutes and Preston was 50 minutes. Both these figures make sense given current journey times, and the (former) likely HS2 patterns. So a reduction to Glasgow of 49 minutes (bearing in mind it wouldn’t stop between Birmingham interchange and Preston) is probably right in fact, unless you think the time to Crewe is wrong as well?

Depends how much time the HS2 trains lose north of Preston without tilt.

 

[JamieL]

Rumour has it that the knowledge that Burnham has connections to Golborne made it a most likely candidate to be chosen for cancellation.

I think the fact it severed Sir Graham Brady's constituency - and he was lobbying against it right at the time our respective Tory Prime Ministers have been in a political peril - had much more to do with it! Party before country, always.

Depends how much time the HS2 trains lose north of Preston without tilt.

...and presumably also how many stops they make. Everyone is confidently saying HS2 will run express to Preston, then Carlisle and Glasgow. But why would the trains deviate from the current stopping pattern of Warrington BQ, Wigan NB, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme/Penrith, Carlisle, Lockerbie/Motherwell and Glasgow Central? If they do this without tilt - and add in additional stops at Old Oak Common and maybe even the Brimingham Interchange, I doubt journeys will be faster at all on the 'stub' version of HS2 that we are getting.

 

[A0]

Why would the budget have to be fixed?

The business case for HS2 has already been proven, I'm sure if you've noticed but the line is already being built.

The government have scrapped it because Sunak personally does not like HS2. "Network North" is not a good enough document to warrant cancelling HS2 off, if it takes a 140 page document for it to start, it shouldn't take a 40page document to cancel, where no consultation has been sought, nor alternatives looked at.

Business cases are not set in stone and are (or should be) subject to re-evaluation at various points through the project - because the world changes and that affects the cases.

AIUI the Business Case for HS2 was not for the full line though - there were separate "cases" for each of the phases. Phase 1 - i.e London - Birmingham always had the strongest case, because there is a fundamental capacity constraint on the WCML south of Rugby which phase 1 addresses.

I doubt personal antipathy by any politician is the reason for cancellation - escalating costs and a marginal BC caused by changes in the world are much more likely reasons.

 

[HurdyGurdy]

There might be some residual or extra services via Rugby but they will have more stops.

I've started a thread in Speculative Discussion, if anyone would like to expand on this.

 

[yorkie]

A few more threads which may be of interest include:

HS2 phase 2 cancellation : what could/should happen now?

Moderator note: split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/confirmed-hs2-west-midlands-manchester-line-to-be-scrapped-and-replaced-with-other-projects.255629/ This is what Bernadette Kelly, the DfT permanent secretary and accounting officer for HS2, has written to the Public Accounts...

www.railforums.co.uk

HS2 phase 2 cancellation: alternative projects which may take place

Moderator note: split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/confirmed-hs2-west-midlands-manchester-line-to-be-scrapped-and-replaced-with-other-projects.255629/ The rail minister said this morning that their network north plans are just 'ideas' and not guaranteed

www.railforums.co.uk

How should Northern Powerhouse Rail get through Manchester ?

Since HS2 to Manchester is to be scrapped and that NPR was to connect into at Picadilly, how should NPR go through Manchester ?

www.railforums.co.uk

Two parts of the HS2 Phase 1 route can now be simplified.

Two parts of the HS2 Phase 1 route can now be simplified. One is the provision at Water Orton for a junction towards East Midlands Parkway. The other is at the intended Lichfield Junction between the Phase 1 and Phase 2 routes. This would have made the Phase 2 route the primary, with the curve...

www.railforums.co.uk

Surely the case is now much stronger for Bere Alston - Tavistock - Okehampton!

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/tavistock-re-opening-news.252662/ If Tavistock is now seriously on the cards and mention has also been made of a Dawlish coast diversion, surely the case is now much stronger for Bere Alston - Tavistock - Okehampton!

www.railforums.co.uk

Does HS2 Still Need 400m Trains?

First off, I'll admit to a bias: I've never liked the idea of 400m trains (that is, two 200 trainsets coupled together). I understand the need for capacity, but the railway also needs to be reasonably passenger-friendly and accessible, and to my mind, expecting people to walk 400m down a...

www.railforums.co.uk

Should HS2 be renamed?

It seems that HS2 has quite a bad name now, especially in the media, and with only the southern section being built (subject to confirmation) in the meantime, is it time to name it something else? The focus has been on high speed, but the line creates capacity and that is lost on the general...

www.railforums.co.uk

Leamside Line should open to enable an express Northern service for the area

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/new-newcastle-middlesbrough-express.244402 Having the Leamside line open would improve the chances of a Newcastle - M'boro service via Stillington getting a path but this would compete with other possible uses - a new main line to...

www.railforums.co.uk

And plenty more!

If anyone wants to cover something for which there isn't already an existing thread, please do feel free to create one.