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How *should* HS2 have been built?

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185

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How *should* HS2 have been built?

2012:
Ring ring. Ring ring. "Hello this is Xi Jinping."
"Hi my crazy dictator friend, it's Dave. Can you build us a railway for £20 billion?"
"Yeah, I'll start Sunday night. I'll have to demolish Coventry, but you'll get your railway by Friday."
"Brill. Send you the money via paypal."

And HS2 was finished by Friday*.

(*It fell down on Saturday teatime, but they delivered it)
 
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Bald Rick

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France, plus Austria and Spain are looking into it.

France haven‘t. They have banned the sale of point to point tickets where there is a good rail alterative that takes less than 2.5hours. The flights still operate . Tomorrow, there are 5 flights each way between CDG and Lyon, for example.

Austria, as far as I can tell, has only 4 domestic flights a day (2 return trips Vienna - Innsbruck).



Enough demand to fill at least 3-4 daily trains.

Total air demand from Edinburgh, Newcastle and Leeds to Paris in September was 55,000 passengers (total for noth directions). That would fill one eurostar a day. Edinburgh via Leeds to Paris is going to be a minimum of 7.5hours, or 8.5hours if all passengers from further north are required to do a St P shuffle. allowing for security / arrival etc, its 4.5hrs by plane.
 

YorkRailFan

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Tomorrow, there are 5 flights each way between CDG and Lyon, for example.
That's solely for passengers who have onward connections from CDG.
ustria, as far as I can tell, has only 4 domestic flights a day (2 return trips Vienna - Innsbruck).
I said are looking into.
Total air demand from Edinburgh, Newcastle and Leeds to Paris in September was 55,000 passengers (total for noth directions). That would fill one eurostar a day. Edinburgh via Leeds to Paris is going to be a minimum of 7.5hours, or 8.5hours if all passengers from further north are required to do a St P shuffle. allowing for security / arrival etc, its 4.5hrs by plane.
I live in York, a lot of people in my area fly from London and Manchester, think about all of those passengers.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Really? You think 3,000-3,500 people daily From Edinburgh, Newcastle and Leeds will want to match the 3/4 daily trains departure times instead of flying largely at their convenience. And return. It's 1tp2h from St Pancras, and King's Cross is just over the road
Consider passengers who live along the ECML but fly from other airports, like Manchester, London and Galsgow.
 

zwk500

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That's solely for passengers who have onward connections from CDG.
Which is a large proportion of domestic air travel in France, and is replicated in the UK with connections to LHR.
I live in York, a lot of people in my area fly from London and Manchester, think about all of those passengers.
'A lot' is doing some heavy lifting considering you need nearly 1000 people wanting (or who could be persuaded) to travel at the same time whereas a typical airliner for a European flight takes c.180 people.
 

Bald Rick

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That's solely for passengers who have onward connections from CDG.

I know. you missed the point though - the flights still operate.


I said are looking into.

You missed the point though - with so few domestic flights, banning them is hardly going to make a difference. They run E195s on that route - maybe a total of 200 people a day each way.


I live in York, a lot of people in my area fly from London and Manchester, think about all of those passengers.

to Paris? Talk about making things hard for youself!


The point here is that the even if all the political challenges about security and border control were swept away, the market between these places by rail - especially for an 8 hour journey - is never going to be big enough for 3-4 return trips a day. In comparison, London to Amsterdam only generates 4 trains a day, for a journey of half the duration and an air market 6 times the size.
 

zwk500

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In comparison, London to Amsterdam only generates 4 trains a day, for a journey of half the duration and an air market 6 times the size.
On this point, London to Amsterdam *could* support a much higher level of service if capacity constraints were resolved - as I believe you have pointed out yourself.
 

Bald Rick

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On this point, London to Amsterdam *could* support a much higher level of service if capacity constraints were resolved - as I believe you have pointed out yourself.

well thats true. But probably not more than 8 trains a day. The remaining air market is around 5000 people a day each way, and many of those are connecting Long Haul at Schiphol or Heathrow.
 
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Peter Sarf

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Never, I always arrive by public transport.
I have done the Heathrow Pod twice but got there by Elizabeth line. To please the granddaughter (not me honest).

The route of the Pods connects with car parks but also a Hotel.
With significant subsidies, it could work.
Could those subsidies (which are scarce) be better spent on more useful things ?.
With more and more countries banning short haul flights, there is a political reason to subsidise it.
They are not banning the flights just banning people using them whoare not connecting to/from an international flight.
You'd gain more if you were going to put subsidy in from subsidising the fares down a bit.

As for a gondola, what a waste of money. They just need an eastern entrance to Euston Square LU then the change would be easy.
I always dream of that missing entrance at the Eastern of Euston Square when I have to use Euston Square. Surely so easy to build ?.
That's solely for passengers who have onward connections from CDG.
That's right all the others are using rail already.
I said are looking into.
But Austria has almost no internal flights to attract passengers from.
I live in York, a lot of people in my area fly from London and Manchester, think about all of those passengers.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
But enough ?.
Consider passengers who live along the ECML but fly from other airports, like Manchester, London and Galsgow.
Really. Who in their right mind would travel across the Pennines to Manchester just to fly to London (and then even fewer beyond London to Europe).

From London that means they are not flying internally already.



Overall there is more to gain ecologically from getting High Speed lines built for domestic only transport and rely on the short trip between Euston and StPancras for for those travelling beyond London to Paris and Amsterdam.
 

zwk500

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I always dream of that missing entrance at the Eastern of Euston Square when I have to use Euston Square. Surely so easy to build ?.
Would need modification/demolition of the parcels deck, I think. Some of the HS2 station plans certainly had it in, and there was a related TfL scheme to tidy up Phoenix Road for smooth transfers between the HS2 and HS1 termini.
 

YorkRailFan

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Could those subsidies (which are scarce) be better spent on more useful things ?.
Yes, healthcare and education.
But Austria has almost no internal flights to attract passengers from.
Still got Innsbruck flights, I believe.
But enough ?.
Consider how many people this applies to, people from Edinburgh who perhaps fly from Glasgow, people in Newcastle, Leeds and then those in Sheffield who can connect onto it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Really. Who in their right mind would travel across the Pennines to Manchester just to fly to London (and then even fewer beyond London to Europe).

From London that means they are not flying internally already.
Never said that, I said that people who live along the ECML fly from Manchester and London, no one goes to Manchester just to fly to London.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

know. you missed the point though - the flights still operate.
But they're not available unless you have a connecting flight with the airline or partner of the airline, this still can eliminate quite a few people, and no, I did not miss the point.
 

Peter Sarf

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Still got Innsbruck flights, I believe.
And that's all - if you believe the same post I do.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Never said that, I said that people who live along the ECML fly from Manchester and London, no one goes to Manchester just to fly to London.
Ah I mis understood. But will there be enough of a market for a train service not from Manchester for people on the East side of the Pennines to get to Paris ?.
But they're not available unless you have a connecting flight with the airline or partner of the airline, this still can eliminate quite a few people, and no, I did not miss the point.
I think you started by saying already that internal flights in France were banned and it was being pointed out that the flights still operate for passengers connecting to international flights.


The key fact is that there are far more people to shift to/from London than there are to/from Paris and Amsterdam via London. So the money to be spent on a link in London between HS2 and HS1 would better go towards HS2 proper.
 
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Bald Rick

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I always dream of that missing entrance at the Eastern of Euston Square when I have to use Euston Square. Surely so easy to build ?.

Construction of it has just stopped! If you have access to the right buildings (or look at Google Maps) you can see the BBH* that has been dug for part of it. But it’s not that easy to build.

*Bloody Big Hole.
 

Peter Sarf

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Construction of it has just stopped! If you have access to the right buildings (or look at Google Maps) you can see the BBH* that has been dug for part of it. But it’s not that easy to build.

*Bloody Big Hole.
Oh dear - is that new Euston Square Eastern entrance part of the vandalism of Euston HS2 ?.
 

Peter Sarf

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yep (depends what you mean by vandalism…)
Ah yes, sorry. There will of course be those who see Euston HS2 as vandalism of the original area. But I meant the more recent vandalism of the project. I fear the risk Euston HS2 will be downsized and then hemmed in with other new development on its original footprint making its original capacity of Euston uneconomic to achieve.

Would be advisable to keep the Euston site big enough to support the maximum capacity of HS2. That is unless it is thought the Inner London terminus (that would be Euston) should be somewhere different, but not outside central London imo. It was discussed before that the unused railway lands to the North of StPancras/Kings Cross could have been used - but developed already.

Forward planning easily falls victim to short term-ism. The longer something takes the more risk of events taking over. That's where I try to see how HS2 could have been done differently. Not sure how but more smaller phases - a rolling program. One immovable though was that the most expensive part had to be done all in one go (London to the West Midlands). Nothing on the way to the West Midlands worthwhile to stop at. The only part that could have been a separate part is Old Oak to Euston - dangerous but should it have not been even started until the traffic was there at Old Oak Common ?.
 
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YorkRailFan

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I think you started by saying already that internal flights in France were banned and it was being pointed out that the flights still operate for passengers connecting to international flights.
Apologies, misunderstanding from both of us.
 

Peter Sarf

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Apologies, misunderstanding from both of us.
No probs.

On flights I do wonder if there will be less international travel as flights cost more (environmental charges). If there is not a reduction in international travel (and domestic) then at least the existing Eurostar and connections in London will become less un-attractive.
 

YorkRailFan

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On flights I do wonder if there will be less international travel as flights cost more (environmental charges). If there is not a reduction in international travel (and domestic) then at least the existing Eurostar and connections in London will become less un-attractive.
Another alternative is to use perhaps 5 carriage trains operating 4tpd, instead of a full 16 carriage train.
 

Peter Sarf

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Another alternative is to use perhaps 5 carriage trains operating 4tpd, instead of a full 16 carriage train.
HS2 proponents want to fill HS2 with the longest possible trains. It makes the best use of the money spent of course. But there was/is to be 16 car trains splitting in two once off the end of HS2 and going to say Liverpool and Scotland on conventional lines. So for international would need to maybe have a Manchester 8-car joining with a Glasgow 8-car. But its still a small market compared to domestic travel.
 

YorkRailFan

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HS2 proponents want to fill HS2 with the longest possible trains. It makes the best use of the money spent of course. But there was/is to be 16 car trains splitting in two once off the end of HS2 and going to say Liverpool and Scotland on conventional lines. So for international would need to maybe have a Manchester 8-car joining with a Glasgow 8-car. But its still a small market compared to domestic travel.
True, or a 16 carriage can be sent from Paris to Stratford, divide into two 8 cars, with one going to Birmingham and Crewe, divides into two 4 cars with one going to Glasgow and the other Birmingham, while the other 8 goes to Doncaster, divides into two 4 cars with one going to Leeds and the other to York, Newcastle and Edinburgh. But that would be very hard logistically.
 

Peter Sarf

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True, or a 16 carriage can be sent from Paris to Stratford, divide into two 8 cars, with one going to Birmingham and Crewe, divides into two 4 cars with one going to Glasgow and the other Birmingham, while the other 8 goes to Doncaster, divides into two 4 cars with one going to Leeds and the other to York, Newcastle and Edinburgh. But that would be very hard logistically.
Indeed I notice the railways seem to avoid joining and splitting. In my view four portions is four times the risk of delay compared to one as there are four portions that can cause delay. I think finding a way of managing with two portions rather than four would be less bad. But still need to fit in with domestic passengers which will be the dominant flows and hopefully get some people out of cars as well as domestic only flights.

QUESTION
Does anyone know what proportion of passengers on UK domestic flights are purely UK vs those connecting to an international flight (long haul vs within Europe if brave).
I bet @Bald Rick knows.
 

YorkRailFan

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Indeed I notice the railways seem to avoid joining and splitting. In my view four portions is four times the risk of delay compared to one as there are four portions that can cause delay. I think finding a way of managing with two portions rather than four would be less bad. But still need to fit in with domestic passengers which will be the dominant flows and hopefully get some people out of cars as well as domestic only flights.
Good plan, make tickets available to book between Stratford and Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow, Leeds, Doncaster, York, Newcastle, Edinburgh, etc to help fill up the train.
 

stuu

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Good plan, make tickets available to book between Stratford and Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow, Leeds, Doncaster, York, Newcastle, Edinburgh, etc to help fill up the train.
In a sensible world where the UK was in Schengen, that would be fine, but now and for the very foreseeable future, you either have to get all the international passengers off to go through passport control, and check no one is hiding in the luggage racks etc, or all the domestic passengers have to go through passport control at their boarding stations, with consequent costs and time penalty.

Neither is a better option than just changing at St Pancras
 

Peter Sarf

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Good plan, make tickets available to book between Stratford and Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow, Leeds, Doncaster, York, Newcastle, Edinburgh, etc to help fill up the train.
Cannot have a mixture of domestic and international passengers on one train. Not unless the passengers all turn up early enough to go through immigration and security. And of course it would mean bigger facilities to cope with those who do not really need it at each station. You would also need all the domestic passengers to be carrying their passport and not carry restricted goods (customs and excise).
 

YorkRailFan

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Cannot have a mixture of domestic and international passengers on one train. Not unless the passengers all turn up early enough to go through immigration and security. And of course it would mean bigger facilities to cope with those who do not really need it at each station. You would also need them all to be carrying their passport and not carry restricted goods (customs and excise).
Unless immigration happens at Stratford.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

In a sensible world where the UK was in Schengen, that would be fine, but now and for the very foreseeable future, you either have to get all the international passengers off to go through passport control, and check no one is hiding in the luggage racks etc, or all the domestic passengers have to go through passport control at their boarding stations, with consequent costs and time penalty.

Neither is a better option than just changing at St Pancras
In a sensible world, we would never have left the EU.
 

camflyer

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Such a service would require dozens of comparatively highly paid staff roles.
I can't see it being economically attractive compared to a urban gondola or similar connection between Euston and St Pancras

There was a study for HS2 looking at various options for a people mover between Euston and StP.

 

JamesT

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Unless immigration happens at Stratford.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==


In a sensible world, we would never have left the EU.
If you're doing immigration at Stratford, presumably you're not doing through trains, so what's the advantage of doing it at Stratford instead of St Pancras which is already set up?

Membership of the EU is somewhat irrelevant to this question. We spent 30 years in the EU not joining the Schengen Area. (Though we did take part in some of the judicial co-operation aspects). There are countries in Schengen who are not EU members, so it would be possible if somehow there was overwhelming demand to join.
 

Peter Sarf

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There was a study for HS2 looking at various options for a people mover between Euston and StP.

Thanks for posting - very interesting. Overhead does lend itself to ending over Euston platforms and going into the side of the Midland Mainline concourse at St Pancras. Only disadvantage I see is noise/visual-intrusion. As with HS2 sub surface it would cost more - about 33% extra.
 

Energy

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QUESTION
Does anyone know what proportion of passengers on UK domestic flights are purely UK vs those connecting to an international flight (long haul vs within Europe if brave).
I don't have the percentage to hand but overwhelmingly Manchester to London flights were people connecting at Heathrow.
Good plan, make tickets available to book between Stratford and Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow, Leeds, Doncaster, York, Newcastle, Edinburgh, etc to help fill up the train.
Help? Bald Rick has already shown that for more than a train or two per day it's going to struggle to be filled, Stratford Intl isn't going to have masses of demand of the ability to hold trains while everyone is detrained, train sweeped to ensure no stowaways, everyone gone through immigration and reboarded.

Meanwhile for Leeds, Doncaster etc. its a walk across the road from King's Cross to St Pancras.
Membership of the EU is somewhat irrelevant to this question. We spent 30 years in the EU not joining the Schengen Area. (Though we did take part in some of the judicial co-operation aspects). There are countries in Schengen who are not EU members, so it would be possible if somehow there was overwhelming demand to join.
The government would have to admit to the public facts like the UK getting a smaller percentage of asylum seekers compared to other countries like Germany or that the Home Office backlog is due to poor moral in the Civil Service. I'll try not to get too political.
 
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