One other positive point which the PDF highlights is that revenue has increased by 10% since the same quarter last year when adjusted for nflation.
This is probably down to the fact that compared to pre COVID ordinary tickets are pretty much back to where they were in 2018/19 (some of these are slightly ahead like advanced and off peak, some are a tiny amount behind like peak, whilst the "other ordinary tickets" still are some way behind).
It's the season tickets (204) which are about 33% of the pre COVID numbers (620), with even that was below the peak of 2015/16 (707), so was a trend which was going to be an issue anyway - just maybe not as bad as it currently is.
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I've added to the end (in brackets) the percentage of passengers being carried by each operator compared to pre COVID.
I have called up ORR table 1253 which is historic data for table 5.1
Comparing 2019 July-Sept to latest 2023
SWR was 79.7m km now down to 59.9m km (down 25%)
GTR was 142.9m Km, now down to 108.0m km (down 24%)
Percentages of 4 years earlier for all operators are
Avanti West Coast 80.61%. (80.5%)
C2C 92.15% (75.3%)
Caledonian sleeper 103.85% (85.1%)
Chiltern 67.8% (69.0%)
Cross Country 79.87% (75.6%)
East Midlands 98.76% (109.3%)
Elizabeth line 333.04% (409.6%)
Govia Thameslink 75.58% (77.0%)
Great Western 89.65% (77.7%)
Greater Anglia 95.91% (86.2%)
LNER 81.86% (110.8%)
London Overground 110.95% (94.2%)
Merseyrail 90.24% (90.1%)
Northern 88.39% (73.6%)
Scotrail 95.17% (84.5%)
SWR 75.14% (70.0%)
Southeastern - missing from your table (69.3%)
TfW 101.48% (76.6%)
Transpennine 106.76% (73.6%)
West Midlands 92.4% (79.5%)
Grand Central 101.7% (114.5%)
Heathrow Express 102.04% (69.6%)
Hull Trains 109.65% (136.9%)
Lumo (n/a in 2019)
There's generally a fairly constant correlation between km's and passenger numbers.
TPE, Scotland and Wales are the ones which have the best km but still come out badly for passengers. I do wonder if at least some of this is down to Avanti and Northern running a reduced timetable (less so for Scotland).
It would be interesting to know if there's services which are overcrowded at TOC's like XC, Chiltern and SWR and so is there a case for upping their provision more...
Although data on trains over capacity from last Autumn shows that there are trains for which this is an issue:
An average of 173,042 people a day - or nearly 14% of all passengers - were standing across both morning and afternoon peak times in autumn last year, according to data from the Department for Transport (DfT).
Digging into this data for 2022:
Data on rail passenger numbers, crowding and capacity, produced by Department for Transport.
www.gov.uk
SWT doesn't have significant PiXC (passengers in excess of capacity), with the morning peak hour being 3%,
Chiltern has for the 3 hour peaks:
AM 8.7%
PM 5.0%
Overall peak 7.0%
Which is repeated for 2023 would imply that Chiltern could have done a bit more in terms of services, whilst SWR were broadly there. If course is passenger numbers have risen a bit but capacity hasn't then there's likely to be a car for both to provide a bit more capacity.