ORR release quarterly passenger data

[Snow1964]

ORR have released July-September 2023 figures

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/bbrpxkon/passenger-rail-usage-jul-sep-2023.pdf

London & South East had 16% increase in journeys compared to same quarter previous year

Average journey distance increased for regional, but fell on a intercity and LSE
per table 2.2 Northern had biggest increase in distance travelled at 7.7%

Five operators cut train kilometers (table 4.1)
But 10 operators cut vehicle kilometers (shorter trains) table 5.1

Plenty of other data to crunch and digest and comment on

 

[WatcherZero]

Northern having 7.7% increase in passenger km but only a 1% increase in passengers looks anomalous, particularly as the average for regional is an 8% increase in passengers and 9% in distance for an average of 1% increase in passenger km while long distance saw a 1% reduction and the next best performing Toc was GWR on 3% then the usual larger geographic scope Tocs on 2%. I suspect there must have been a significant increase in revenue protection performance with fewer people buying shorter tickets than their actual journey.

 

[hwl]

Northern having 7.7% increase in passenger km but only a 1% increase in passengers looks anomalous, particularly as the average for regional is an 8% increase in passengers and 9% in distance for an average of 1% increase in passenger km while long distance saw a 1% reduction and the next best performing Toc was GWR on 3% then the usual larger geographic scope Tocs on 2%. I suspect there must have been a significant increase in revenue protection performance with fewer people buying shorter tickets than their actual journey.

GWR journey length will be reflecting the further transfer of east of Reading inner station services to Elizabeth line vs the year before (and lower EL journey times on the GWML)

 

[Snow1964]

GWR journey length will be reflecting the further transfer of east of Reading inner station services to Elizabeth line vs the year before (and lower EL journey times on the GWML)

GWR passenger kilometres increased 5%, but kilometers per journey up 3%, so average passenger went bit further (table 2.2). Therefore if lost some passengers to Elizabeth line, must have gained more elsewhere to get net +5% in total distance travelled

However they only increased their train km by 4%, so not keeping up with increase in passengers. (table 4.1)

Actually it is worse because table 5.1 says only increased vehicle km by 0.4%, which is 4.6% less than passenger km increased. In other words carrying extra 4.6% passengers per coach

Doing bit of basic maths shows average GWR train length got shorter, now 66.5m km (table 5.1) divided by train 11.3m km (table 4.1) shows average GWR train is 5.88 coaches, but would have been 6.11 coaches same time last year (66.101/10.848)

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

All

ORR have released July-September 2023 figures

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/bbrpxkon/passenger-rail-usage-jul-sep-2023.pdf

London & South East had 16% increase in journeys compared to same quarter previous year

Average journey distance increased for regional, but fell on a intercity and LSE
per table 2.2 Northern had biggest increase in distance travelled at 7.7%

Five operators cut train kilometers (table 4.1)
But 10 operators cut vehicle kilometers (shorter trains) table 5.1

Plenty of other data to crunch and digest and comment on

Remove Elizabeth line and the other commuter operations looking pretty static now on a qtr on qtr basis but maybe we've had more strikes affecting ridership. However, i expect things to tick up for last two qtrs this year as it appears to me trains in my part of the world are busier and certainly locals are saying they are going into office more sometimes under duress but mainly as they just want to get back into the work environment.

 

[The Ham]

Whilst passenger numbers are back at 2013 values (slightly higher) for the comparable quarter, there's still several TOC's which are at 2010 or earlier.

Much of the extra is down to Elizabeth Line usage (although some was existing, for example GWR numbers - GWR would likely be a little higher if they were running the local services between Paddington and Reading, rather than them being Elizabeth Line services).

As an example an extra 3 million of GWR would set them as 2011 rather than 2010 or earlier.

There's still a few which are now ahead of where they were in 2019.

 

[Snow1964]

I have called up ORR table 1253 which is historic data for table 5.1

Comparing 2019 July-Sept to latest 2023

SWR was 79.7m km now down to 59.9m km (down 25%)
GTR was 142.9m Km, now down to 108.0m km (down 24%)

Percentages of 4 years earlier for all operators are
Avanti West Coast 80.61%
C2C 92.15%
Caledonian sleeper 103.85%
Chiltern 67.8%
Cross Country 79.87%
East Midlands 98.76%
Elizabeth line 333.04%
Govia Thameslink 75.58%
Great Western 89.65%
Greater Anglia 95.91%
LNER 81.86%
London Overground 110.95%
Merseyrail 90.24%
Northern 88.39%
Scotrail 95.17%
SWR 75.14%
TfW 101.48%
Transpennine 106.76%
West Midlands 92.4%
Grand Central 101.7%
Heathrow Express 102.04%
Hull Trains 109.65%
Lumo (n/a in 2019)

I am at a loss to understand why commuter operators in South and SW London cut by 24-25%, but those in NE and East London cut by 4-8%

Also interesting that the long distance operators have cut by 18-21%, but open access long distance have grown their mileage operators

 

[The Ham]

One other positive point which the PDF highlights is that revenue has increased by 10% since the same quarter last year when adjusted for nflation.

This is probably down to the fact that compared to pre COVID ordinary tickets are pretty much back to where they were in 2018/19 (some of these are slightly ahead like advanced and off peak, some are a tiny amount behind like peak, whilst the "other ordinary tickets" still are some way behind).

It's the season tickets (204) which are about 33% of the pre COVID numbers (620), with even that was below the peak of 2015/16 (707), so was a trend which was going to be an issue anyway - just maybe not as bad as it currently is.

----------------------------------------------------------

I've added to the end (in brackets) the percentage of passengers being carried by each operator compared to pre COVID.

I have called up ORR table 1253 which is historic data for table 5.1

Comparing 2019 July-Sept to latest 2023

SWR was 79.7m km now down to 59.9m km (down 25%)
GTR was 142.9m Km, now down to 108.0m km (down 24%)

Percentages of 4 years earlier for all operators are
Avanti West Coast 80.61%. (80.5%)
C2C 92.15% (75.3%)
Caledonian sleeper 103.85% (85.1%)
Chiltern 67.8% (69.0%)
Cross Country 79.87% (75.6%)
East Midlands 98.76% (109.3%)
Elizabeth line 333.04% (409.6%)
Govia Thameslink 75.58% (77.0%)
Great Western 89.65% (77.7%)
Greater Anglia 95.91% (86.2%)
LNER 81.86% (110.8%)
London Overground 110.95% (94.2%)
Merseyrail 90.24% (90.1%)
Northern 88.39% (73.6%)
Scotrail 95.17% (84.5%)
SWR 75.14% (70.0%)

Southeastern - missing from your table (69.3%)

TfW 101.48% (76.6%)
Transpennine 106.76% (73.6%)
West Midlands 92.4% (79.5%)
Grand Central 101.7% (114.5%)
Heathrow Express 102.04% (69.6%)
Hull Trains 109.65% (136.9%)
Lumo (n/a in 2019)

There's generally a fairly constant correlation between km's and passenger numbers.

TPE, Scotland and Wales are the ones which have the best km but still come out badly for passengers. I do wonder if at least some of this is down to Avanti and Northern running a reduced timetable (less so for Scotland).

It would be interesting to know if there's services which are overcrowded at TOC's like XC, Chiltern and SWR and so is there a case for upping their provision more...

Although data on trains over capacity from last Autumn shows that there are trains for which this is an issue:

https://www.itv.com/news/2023-07-25/standing-room-only-the-most-overcrowded-trains-by-city

An average of 173,042 people a day - or nearly 14% of all passengers - were standing across both morning and afternoon peak times in autumn last year, according to data from the Department for Transport (DfT).

Digging into this data for 2022:

Rail passenger numbers and crowding on weekdays (RAI02)

Data on rail passenger numbers, crowding and capacity, produced by Department for Transport.

www.gov.uk

SWT doesn't have significant PiXC (passengers in excess of capacity), with the morning peak hour being 3%,

Chiltern has for the 3 hour peaks:
AM 8.7%
PM 5.0%
Overall peak 7.0%

Which is repeated for 2023 would imply that Chiltern could have done a bit more in terms of services, whilst SWR were broadly there. If course is passenger numbers have risen a bit but capacity hasn't then there's likely to be a car for both to provide a bit more capacity.

 

[Horizon22]

Whilst passenger numbers are back at 2013 values (slightly higher) for the comparable quarter, there's still several TOC's which are at 2010 or earlier.

Much of the extra is down to Elizabeth Line usage (although some was existing, for example GWR numbers - GWR would likely be a little higher if they were running the local services between Paddington and Reading, rather than them being Elizabeth Line services).

As an example an extra 3 million of GWR would set them as 2011 rather than 2010 or earlier.

There's still a few which are no ahead of where they were in 2019.

GWR haven’t run the local services for almost 5 years now (with the exception of some peak trains which have also mostly transferred). There are Elizabeth line impacts but this isn’t one of them relevant to this data set.

I

Percentages of 4 years earlier for all operators are
Avanti West Coast 80.61%
C2C 92.15%
Caledonian sleeper 103.85%
Chiltern 67.8%
Cross Country 79.87%
East Midlands 98.76%
Elizabeth line 333.04%
Govia Thameslink 75.58%
Great Western 89.65%
Greater Anglia 95.91%
LNER 81.86%
London Overground 110.95%
Merseyrail 90.24%
Northern 88.39%
Scotrail 95.17%
SWR 75.14%
TfW 101.48%
Transpennine 106.76%
West Midlands 92.4%
Grand Central 101.7%
Heathrow Express 102.04%
Hull Trains 109.65%
Lumo (n/a in 2019)

I am at a loss to understand why commuter operators in South and SW London cut by 24-25%, but those in NE and East London cut by 4-8%

Very broadly, SW & South London tend to be a little bit more “white-collar” workers compared to the cheaper housing in East London so demographically this may be why as there’s likely to be relatively more ‘key worker’ types who don’t have WFH options. Southeastern also really cut down their timetable apparently due to the impact of the Elizabeth line which left it rather unbalanced on certain routes.

 

[Snow1964]

GWR haven’t run the local services for almost 5 years now (with the exception of some peak trains which have also mostly transferred). There are Elizabeth line impacts but this isn’t one of them relevant to this data set.

If GWR lost most of the remaining peak local and semi-fast trains to Elizabeth line, and it is up 5% passenger km overall, then must have had growth elsewhere to be net 5% up

Apart from some extra local trains in Bristol area, for which it shortened other trains, not clear why there is a 4.6% gap between GWR passenger km increase and vehicle km increase, unless they are operating policy to increase crowding by 4.6%

 

[Horizon22]

If GWR lost most of the remaining peak local and semi-fast trains to Elizabeth line, and it is up 5% passenger km overall, then must have had growth elsewhere to be net 5% up

Apart from some extra local trains in Bristol area, for which it shortened other trains, not clear why there is a 4.6% gap between GWR passenger km increase and vehicle km increase, unless they are operating policy to increase crowding by 4.6%

GWR are having more fleet issues and running more 5 cars instead of 9 or 10 cars which may be why. I could certainly understanding a crowding increase of 5% to which capacity has not kept up.

With 500 passengers on a train that’s only 25 more people.

 

[wls1]

Chiltern passenger numbers aren't as high as they were however since they have lost some of their trains (172), they are worse off as a result coupled with worsening reliability of 165s and 168s.

Chiltern had the busiest train in the country for 2022, and this situation will have gotten worse as more people are travelling. A fleet replacement is more needed than ever.

 

[jayah]

Five operators cut train kilometers (table 4.1)
But 10 operators cut vehicle kilometers (shorter trains) table 5.1

I don't think it quite works like that. Thameslink cut both by 5% which means all of the reduction in vehicle km resulted from the reduction in train km.

At the other end of the spectrum, the most crowded long distance operator (XC) somehow achieved the staggering feat of running 11% more train km and 5% fewer vehicle kilometres.

Breath in, there's another 50 people trying to get on.

 

[ScotGG]

GWR haven’t run the local services for almost 5 years now (with the exception of some peak trains which have also mostly transferred). There are Elizabeth line impacts but this isn’t one of them relevant to this data set.



Very broadly, SW & South London tend to be a little bit more “white-collar” workers compared to the cheaper housing in East London so demographically this may be why as there’s likely to be relatively more ‘key worker’ types who don’t have WFH options. Southeastern also really cut down their timetable apparently due to the impact of the Elizabeth line which left it rather unbalanced on certain routes.

SE London and North Kent (Dartford to Medway) served by Southeastern is probably poorer than much of east London. Much of it isn't very white collar yet saw large cuts.

The excuse of Elizabeth line sort of falls apart as that also impacts London Overground and the DLR but both of those have seen strong recovery. They didn't see such severe cuts hampering Metro turn up and go services.

It seems clear to me. Retain services as seen on c2c, Greater Anglia, London Overground and the DLR and recovery is good. Axe services as seen south of the Thames making the service a pain to use and people are driven away given any sort of choice. Not good for road congestion.

 

[WatcherZero]

I don't think it quite works like that. Thameslink cut both by 5% which means all of the reduction in vehicle km resulted from the reduction in train km.

At the other end of the spectrum, the most crowded long distance operator (XC) somehow achieved the staggering feat of running 11% more train km and 5% fewer vehicle kilometres.

Breath in, there's another 50 people trying to get on.

Train KM is the total distance the fleet travelled per unit (i.e. irrespective of length) and includes out of service moves.
Vehicle KM is the amount travelled in passenger service and calculated by multiplying the number of passenger services operated by their carriage length.

XC operated 28.9m vehicle km's, a 1% reduction year on year and 5.9m train km an 11% increase. This is likely due to operating proportionally more Turbostar services (and six more (20%) were lengthened from 2 to 3 carriage in 2022) but either fewer four and five car Voyager's or not enough in formation to compensate for the gradual withdrawal of the 7 car HST's during the period with the last one being withdrawn at the end of September

 

[Jamesrob637]

Season tickets were probably going to be lower year-on-year anyway even non-COVID as the phenomenon of "Tuesday Wednesday And Thursday" office working began to take hold in around 2017.

 

[paul1609]

Season tickets were probably going to be lower year-on-year anyway even non-COVID as the phenomenon of "Tuesday Wednesday And Thursday" office working began to take hold in around 2017.

I dont know where youre based but south of London it was well established in 2013 when I was commuting from Headcorn in to London. Tue, Wed, Thursday trains in to Charing Cross would be standing from Tonbridge possibly Paddock Wood. Monday it would be Sevenoaks and on Friday youd get a seat from Sevenoaks to the next stop at London Bridge. In the latest ORR figures Headcorn has made it back to 68% of 2018, Tonbridge around 75%, Id suggest that peak time travel is hardest hit. The are whole railway car parks at Tonbridge which have a dozen cars parked in them by 10.00

 

[jayah]

Train KM is the total distance the fleet travelled per unit (i.e. irrespective of length) and includes out of service moves.
Vehicle KM is the amount travelled in passenger service and calculated by multiplying the number of passenger services operated by their carriage length.

XC operated 28.9m vehicle km's, a 1% reduction year on year and 5.9m train km an 11% increase. This is likely due to operating proportionally more Turbostar services (and six more (20%) were lengthened from 2 to 3 carriage in 2022) but either fewer four and five car Voyager's or not enough in formation to compensate for the gradual withdrawal of the 7 car HST's during the period with the last one being withdrawn at the end of September

Both tables refer to passenger train / vehicle distance - there are no 'out of services moves' included in either.

The data covers July - September when some HSTs were still running, but given the scale of their fleet these are fairly insignificant. The one franchise (along with Northern who raised their figure by 7%) that needs to be running more vehicle km, is actually managing to run fewer.

 

[WatcherZero]

Read the accompanying methodology notes.

Passenger train kilometres refers to the number of train kilometres (million) travelled by passenger trains. Empty coaching stock movements are included meaning that data for Lumo go back to May 2021 despite the operator commencing public services from 25 October 2021. Sourced from the Track Access Billing System (TABS) it includes train kilometres operated on Network Rail infrastructure and other railway networks including Core Valley Lines, HS1, and TfL infrastructure.

 

[Class 170101]

Whilst passenger numbers are back at 2013 values (slightly higher) for the comparable quarter, there's still several TOC's which are at 2010 or earlier.

Where are you getting that data from please?

Much of the extra is down to Elizabeth Line usage (although some was existing, for example GWR numbers - GWR would likely be a little higher if they were running the local services between Paddington and Reading, rather than them being Elizabeth Line services).

As an example an extra 3 million of GWR would set them as 2011 rather than 2010 or earlier.

I guess there is no easy way to split historical data to allow meaningful comparsions

There's still a few which are no ahead of where they were in 2019.

not or now?

 

[The Ham]

Where are you getting that data from please?

Table 1223

Table 1223 - Passenger journeys by operator | ORR Data Portal

I guess there is no easy way to split historical data to allow meaningful comparsions

Indeed

not or now?

Now, I'll correct my post

 

[Krokodil]

The one franchise (along with Northern who raised their figure by 7%) that needs to be running more vehicle km, is actually managing to run fewer.

XC and Northern aren't the only ones with overcrowding problems. TfW have become notorious for two-car units packed to the rafters with dozens of passengers left behind on the platform.

The "Passengers in Excess of Capacity" (PiXC) statistics are not a useful source because they specifically cover commuter peak flows in/out of eleven major cities, when TfW's overcrowding is generally down to leisure traffic.

 

[Class 170101]

XC and Northern aren't the only ones with overcrowding problems. TfW have become notorious for two-car units packed to the rafters with dozens of passengers left behind on the platform.

The "Passengers in Excess of Capacity" (PiXC) statistics are not a useful source because they specifically cover commuter peak flows in/out of eleven major cities, when TfW's overcrowding is generally down to leisure traffic.

PIXC also only covers those that boarded the train (and stand) those left behind aren't counted.

 

[WatcherZero]

PIXC is passengers in excess of rated capacity of the standard class carriage not passengers standing.
One passenger standing per 0.45m2 of floor space is considered accommodated (or 0.25-0.35 on metro layout carriages) or where they dont know the floorspace on the train they assume standing capacity of 20% of seats on Long Distance and 35% on commuter services. So for example a commuter service with a capacity of 300 seats all filled and with 105 standing would still have a PIXC of zero.

 

[Krokodil]

So for example a commuter service with a capacity of 300 seats all filled and with 105 standing would still have a PIXC of zero.

The services I encountered in the run up to Christmas (the ones leaving dozens behind on the platform while passengers onboard were fainting) wouldn't even have been included in the statistics as apparently it's only peak time commutes into a short list of cities that anyone cares about.

 

[WatcherZero]

Its a fair long list of cities, 7-10am and 4-7pm. Recording began in 2011 with Bristol and Reading being added to the list in 2017

Birmingham​

Brighton​

Bristol​

Cambridge​

Cardiff​

Leeds​

Leicester​

Liverpool​

Manchester​

Newcastle​

Nottingham​

Reading​

Sheffield​

​

Blackfriars (via Elephant and Castle)​

Euston​

Fenchurch Street​

Kings Cross​

Liverpool Street​

London Bridge (including Charing Cross and Cannon Street)​

Marylebone​

Moorgate​

Paddington​

St Pancras International​

Victoria & Gatwick Express​

Waterloo​

​

 

[Krokodil]

Its a fair long list of cities, 7-10am and 4-7pm. Recording began in 2011 with Bristol and Reading being added to the list in 2017

14 cities. And again the statistics don't cover the overcrowding on 1C78 when that leaves Paddington in the summer. XC four-car Voyager packed to the rafters on a Saturday? Not counted. Nor would most of the packed services I have encountered be considered. Travel patterns have changed and leisure travel is a much bigger factor than it used to be.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

14 cities. And again the statistics don't cover the overcrowding on 1C78 when that leaves Paddington in the summer. XC four-car Voyager packed to the rafters on a Saturday? Not counted. Nor would most of the packed services I have encountered be considered. Travel patterns have changed and leisure travel is a much bigger factor than it used to be.

All samples are set up to prove what the treasury wants

 

[deltic]

All samples are set up to prove what the treasury wants

Nothing to do with HM Treasury

 

[YorkRailFan]

Latest data for last Quarter has been released.

Key results​

• A total of 417 million rail passenger journeys were recorded in Great Britain (GB) in the latest quarter (October to December 2023). This is a 20% increase on the 348 million journeys in the same quarter in the previous year (October to December 2022). There were 1,570 million journeys in the year to 31 December 2023. This is a 20% increase on the 1,300 million journeys made in the previous 12 months (1 January 2022 to 31 December 2022).
• A total of 15.2 billion passenger kilometres were travelled in Great Britain in the latest quarter. This is a 20% increase on the 12.6 billion passenger kilometres travelled in the same quarter in the previous year.
• Total passenger revenue was £2.6 billion in the latest quarter. This is a 20% increase on the £2.2 billion in the same quarter in the previous year (when adjusted for inflation).

Passenger rail usage | ORR Data Portal

All TOCs saw growth in passenger figures, with the Elizabeth Line (unsurprisingly) seeing the most growth at 40%, followed by Avanti at 38%, Scotrail at 34%, TPE at 33%, Lumo at 29%, Hull Trains at 27%, XC at 26%, EMR at 23%, GC at 22%, Cal Sleeper at 20%, LO at 20%, WMT (WMR and LNR) at 20%, TFW with 19%, Greater Anglia at 18%, Chiltern at 16%, SWR at 15%, Merseyrail at 15%, Northern at 14%, SE at 14%, GTR at 13%, GWR at 10%, LNER at 6%, C2C at 6% and Heathrow Express at 5%.

I'm particularly surprised that Avanti grew so much as they are a Long Distance operator, this indicates more growth in long distance leisure and business travel. HX growing also surprises me with EL coming online, but Heathrow as an airport saw an increase in passenger numbers so this means that more people are using both HX and EL.