Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[nw1]

Looking at the column graph, the Conservaties have lost many of their 2019 votes to the Reform Party, will the Conservaties form a pre-election coalition with the Reform Party?

If that happens, Labour had better form a pre-election coalition with the Lib Dems in retaliation.

 

[edwin_m]

Looking at the column graph, the Conservaties have lost many of their 2019 votes to the Reform Party, will the Conservaties form a pre-election coalition with the Reform Party?

That's sort of what happened in 2019 and boosted the Tory seat count significantly, and the risk of it happening was the main reason for the Brexit referendum. It's likely Reform exists mainly to do that again at some point, exacting the price of some more extreme policies into the Tory manifesto. But probably not at the next election as it's unlikely to make enough difference to change the result this time.

 

[simonw]

From looking at this; the conservative party may become irrelevant for many, many years to come with many of their traditional vote no longer with us.

People tend to drift rightward as they get older, although there are some signs that this has lessened in the UK in recent years.

 

[bwlv9]

People tend to drift rightward as they get older, although there are some signs that this has lessened in the UK in recent years.

Yes and in normal times an equal amount of those getting older will lean right to replace those no longer with us. However as you say, with this lot I don't think it will be balancing out like usual.

 

[nw1]

Yes and in normal times an equal amount of those getting older will lean right to replace those no longer with us. However as you say, with this lot I don't think it will be balancing out like usual.

I just wonder whether the hardline policies of the Conservative Party are just seen as outdated and anachronistic by many, irrespective of age? Or that the age barrier for conservatism has drifted upwards?

I'm speaking here as someone from the middle generations - old enough to have travelled on a full-fare ticket during the (late) BR era, but young enough to have travelled with a YPRC during the (early) days of privatisation.

 

[bwlv9]

I just wonder whether the hardline policies of the Conservative Party are just seen as outdated and anachronistic by many, irrespective of age? Or that the age barrier for conservatism has drifted upwards?

I'm speaking here as someone from the middle generations - old enough to have travelled on a full-fare ticket during the (late) BR era, but young enough to have travelled with a YPRC during the (early) days of privatisation.

Yes agreed, I think our overall more tolerant and diverse society is no longer compatible with their hardline policies and they've failed to adapt and will pay for it at GE.

 

[Typhoon]

I just wonder whether the hardline policies of the Conservative Party are just seen as outdated and anachronistic by many, irrespective of age? Or that the age barrier for conservatism has drifted upwards?

I'm speaking here as someone from the middle generations - old enough to have travelled on a full-fare ticket during the (late) BR era, but young enough to have travelled with a YPRC during the (early) days of privatisation.

As an 'older person' (on my third bus pass) living in an area of mostly elderly people, I would say that we drift towards being more conservative, but the Conservative party has moved away from that,

Many I speak to, especially the older ones, including those who will still vote Conservative, are appalled by what has been revealed about the Johnson years. They would accept Cameron's austerity measures ('living within their means'), that was nothing new to them, would accept May as being a natural successor, even Johnson as PM, but scandals like PPE, his distortions of the truth, his actions relating to the Queen (who many still hold in high regard), and his general unwillingness to own up to errors with any sincerity have damaged their loyalty. Truss's time seems to have done nothing to rectify their situation and the current infighting has not improved matters. They may have agreed with 'The Iron Lady' but see nothing of her strength and determination in the last three. Their core values are not the voters' core values. Younger ones, who were looking forward to a comfortable retirement are being disappointed, sometime because of events out of the government's control, but disappointed, nevertheless.

Many will have forgotten Thatcher's failures (Poll Tax, for instance) through time but the air was of competence; whether Johnson's reputation improves over the years, time will tell, but I doubt he will ever be referred to as competent. Only a future miracle will redeem Truss, and Sunak will suffer the same fate as the likes of Brown, Major, Callaghan, Heath - forgotten!

 

[3141]

Yes agreed, I think our overall more tolerant and diverse society is no longer compatible with their hardline policies and they've failed to adapt and will pay for it at GE.

Certainly society is more diverse, but I don't think it is more tolerant overall. It may be more tolerant towards some things which generally were considered unwelcome in the past. But it seems to me that more intolerance is shown towards the expression of reservations about some matters which have more recently received more widespread acceptance, along with a tendency to demand that everybody should accept certain minority viewpoints.

 

[najaB]

along with a tendency to demand that everybody should accept certain minority viewpoints

Note that "accept" and "agree with" aren't synonyms. The fact that I don't share your view doesn't make it invalid.

 

[3141]

Note that "accept" and "agree with" aren't synonyms. The fact that I don't share your view doesn't make it invalid.

I'm not sure what you're getting at there, but we'd be way off topic if we pursued that.

 

[najaB]

I'm not sure what you're getting at there, but we'd be way off topic if we pursued that.

Nothing specific. You said that there's a demand that people accept minority viewpoints, and the phrasing you used made it sound like that was a bad thing. My counter is that the fact that someone doesn't agree with someone else's viewpoint doesn't make either viewpoint invalid.

One of the fundamental features of a democratic country is respect for the opinions of others, even (or especially) those you don't share.

 

[brad465]

Dylan Difford has done another chart on polling and revealed since mid-2021 Tory poll values have been on a consistent decline:

https://twitter.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1749491662257025158

There's an assumption that the Conservatives' polling position is largely down to the shocks of Partygate and Liz Truss, but I think you could argue they were both distractions from a slower but consistent decline that began in about mid-2021. Cost of governing + cost of living?

(Graph of UK opinion polling 2019-24, with a curve of best fit added to the Tory line.)

 

[Yew]

Just wait until they hear about what bears do in the woods!

 

[brad465]

Simon Clarke now openly talking about Sunak needing to be replaced:

Sunak must be replaced as PM, says former cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke

Sir Simon Clarke warns the Tories will be "massacred" in the general election if led by Rishi Sunak.

www.bbc.co.uk

A senior Tory MP has called for his party to replace Rishi Sunak as prime minister or be "massacred" in the general election.
In an article in the Telegraph, former cabinet secretary Sir Simon Clarke said the Conservatives needed a leader who "shares the instincts of the majority".
Sir Simon, who rebelled on the Rwanda Bill, said the party has lost "key voters" by failing to be bold on immigration and government reform.
Downing Street has yet to comment.

A general election is expected in the second half of this year. The latest the next election could legally be held is 28 January 2025.
Sir Simon is now the second former minister publicly calling for Mr Sunak to resign. Former education minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns submitted a letter of no confidence in the prime minister in November.
After serving as Chief Secretary to the Treasury while Mr Sunak was Chancellor, Sir Simon became an enthusiastic supporter of Liz Truss's leadership bid and joined her cabinet.
Conservative MPs can only trigger a leadership election if 53 MPs write to the chair of the 1922 Committee requesting one.
In his Telegraph op-ed, Sir Simon said "the Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak once again stands on the opposite, crumbling bank of this widening precipice".
The former levelling up secretary said Tory MPs might be "afraid" of electing a fourth leader in two years but asked: "Which is worse: a week of chaotic headlines in Westminster, or a decade of decline under Keir?"
"Every Conservative MP will need to live with the decision they make in the coming days for the rest of their lives. Failing to act would itself represent a decision," he added.
Sir Simon's comments come after a week of open rebellion against Mr Sunak over his flagship Rwanda Bill - to deter migrants from crossing the Channel in small boats.
Last week 61 Conservative MPs voted to change the bill as it went through Parliament - the biggest rebellion of Mr Sunak's premiership.
The debate over the legislation has exposed on-going divisions among Conservatives with two deputy chairmen, Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith, quitting their roles in order to vote for the rebel amendments.
On the other side, the One Nation caucus of about 100 Tory MPs threatened to kill the bill if the Mr Sunak agreed to any of the rebel amendments.

Also, if anyone ever needs an emetic, all you need to do is read "Dame Priti Patel".

 

[The Ham]

Dylan Difford has done another chart on polling and revealed since mid-2021 Tory poll values have been on a consistent decline:

https://twitter.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1749491662257025158

What's interesting is that 04/20 peak, as many local government seats which were won by the Tories then are now up for reelection this year, that's going to lead to a lot of lost seats unless the Tories turn it around in the next 5 months (and not just enough to regain their lead, from 26% to 40%, but actually get back to those sort of values of over 50%).

If that's the case (which given that requires a more than doubling their score is fairly unlikely), then it's likely to lead to the opposition parties saying how the Tories are holding on for as long as they can as they know they'll be out of power.

It's why what's probably best for the Tory party is to actually get it all over and done with and then try and rebuild. However it's likely that they'll swing further towards the ERG and similar groups blaming it on being too soft on immigration and not going hard enough with Brexit.

The reality being they need to gain the support of some younger people (read, those in their 40's, yet some those in their 20's), who appear to be less likely than they used to be to shift towards the Tories as they age.

Small tax cuts don't cut it with them, especially tax cuts (such as inheritance tax) which would have limited impact on them. For example, if there's parents with aa estate worth £1 million with two offspring, even only using their £325,000 allowance the current tax paid would be £140,000. That's the difference between £430,000 for each offspring and £500,000 each if there was no tax.

However, with (say) a £750,000 home and £250,000 of other assets, that's beyond what most would have and so the tax bill is likely to be significantly lower than that (even in much of the southeast). Therefore, many would see such a tax cut as something to benefit the rich in London.

Conversely they will have seen their local services cut, cut, cut again and, given that the latest NI bill cut was based on freezing departmental budgets, yet more cuts to come beyond what may come in the short term.

 

[Thirteen]

I think Sunak will call an election if he smells blood just so he doesn't get deposed.

 

[The Ham]

I think Sunak will call an election if he smells blood just so he doesn't get deposed.

I'm not sure that would be enough to save him if the party thinks they could have a new leader in post for election day

 

[Richard Scott]

I'm not sure that would be enough to save him if the party thinks they could have a new leader in post for election day

I don't get how they think a new leader will help; who's going to replace him. It's not as if there's anyone who stands out. Afraid also true for the other parties, there just doesn't seem to be anyone who has the right credentials anymore. I really don't know who I'd vote for now.

 

[takno]

I don't get how they think a new leader will help; who's going to replace him. It's not as if there's anyone who stands out. Afraid also true for the other parties, there just doesn't seem to be anyone who has the right credentials anymore. I really don't know who I'd vote for now.

I'm not really sure what it would take to stand out. Everyone seems to be saying this like there's some kind of "no prime minister at all" option. Somebody has got to be in charge, and it's ridiculous to suggest that even the Tory party couldn't field somebody better than Rishi. I mean the Tory party wouldn't pick somebody better - they'd head unerringly for mad Liz 2 - but there clearly are Tories who are Tories who are less unqualified for the job than Sunak

 

[Gloster]

How things change. Clarke is described as a senior Tory MP: he has been in the house for seven years and isn’t yet forty. In the old days you would have to be at least sixty, or appear to be, and have spent twenty years on the backbenches to become ‘senior’. Nowadays, anyone who has spent three months as a minister, even something minor like the Deputy Under-Secretary for Paperclips, becomes senior: with the shambles of the last few years most of the party have been made ministers at some time or other as they try to find people who can f*rt and chew gum at the same time (basically what LBJ said about Gerald Ford).

 

[SteveM70]

How things change. Clarke is described as a senior Tory MP: he has been in the house for seven years and isn’t yet forty. In the old days you would have to be at least sixty, or appear to be, and have spent twenty years on the backbenches to become ‘senior’. Nowadays, anyone who has spent three months as a minister, even something minor like the Deputy Under-Secretary for Paperclips, becomes senior: with the shambles of the last few years most of the party have been made ministers at some time or other as they try to find people who can f*rt and chew gum at the same time (basically what LBJ said about Gerald Ford).

And he’s been knighted, for goodness sake

 

[dangie]

Simon Clarke now openly talking about Sunak needing to be replaced…..

I was ok with this until I read he was an enthusiastic supporter of Liz Truss's leadership bid and joined her cabinet.

Sometimes you have to be careful of what you wish for

Bold: From the BBC website

 

[gg1]

And he’s been knighted, for goodness sake

Though for context, he received that knighthood courtesy of the same man who thought it appropriate to make Priti Patel a Dame, Jacob Rees-Mogg a knight and, if he'd had his way, award Nadine Dorries a peerage.

 

[najaB]

I really don't know who I'd vote for now.

Since we don't have a presidential system, you vote for the candidate who you think will best represent your constituency.

If there's anything the last few years should have taught us all, it's that unless you're a party member, you have zero say in who becomes PM, and unless you are an MP yourself, you have zero say in when they go.

 

[Lost property]

I'm not sure that would be enough to save him if the party thinks they could have a new leader in post for election day

Well according to Nadine, in one of her many and frequent rambles, Cameron was dredged up (the enticement of becoming a Lord being ignored) as the replacement for Sunak.

Nadine is unlikely to replace Mystic Meg however.

 

[jfollows]

Simon Clarke is a non-entity amongst non-entities in the talent puddle which is the current Conservative party, only having made any sort of splash because of his association with Liz Truss.
Remaining Tories with brains are despairing of him (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...r-starmer-labour-resignation-uk-politics-live)

As Eleni Courea reports, in private Conservatives have been even more critical of Simon Clarke than the former ministers who have been criticising him on X. She says:

Speaking privately, other Tory MPs were even more forthright. “Not sure we should be taking top tips on leadership from Liz Truss’s right hand,” one minister told the Guardian.
“What the bloody hell is Simon Clarke doing?” said a Tory MP who backed Truss in the 2022 leadership contest.
Another Tory MP said: “Simon Clarke hasn’t helped himself, the party, his country or any of his colleagues tonight – only [Keir] Starmer. He needs to go home, have a lie down in a dark room and repeatedly say ‘I must take the fight to Labour’ until it finally sinks in.”
A senior Tory official said of Clarke: “If he wants to help Sir Keir become the next PM he should just cross the floor.”

 

[SteveM70]

Though for context, he received that knighthood courtesy of the same man who thought it appropriate to make Priti Patel a Dame, Jacob Rees-Mogg a knight and, if he'd had his way, award Nadine Dorries a peerage.

I never realised “for context” was a synonym for “to make matters even worse”

The whole thing is just disgraceful

 

[Typhoon]

Simon Clarke is a non-entity amongst non-entities in the talent puddle which is the current Conservative party, only having made any sort of splash because of his association with Liz Truss.
Remaining Tories with brains are despairing of him (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...r-starmer-labour-resignation-uk-politics-live)

There are some able MPs on the Conservative benches, even after Johnson's purge. Unfortunately, most of them have more sense than to join this government, the previous one or the one before that. Clarke presumably just knows there is an election coming and just wants to get his name in the papers to remind people that he is still around; he is probably cutting the article out at this very minute 'A senior Tory MP ...' - that will make his day.

Though for context, he received that knighthood courtesy of the same man who thought it appropriate to make Priti Patel a Dame, Jacob Rees-Mogg a knight and, if he'd had his way, award Nadine Dorries a peerage.

There ought to be a way of distinguishing an award made by Johnson or Truss from others so we don't need reminding of the low bar. More seriously, resignation honours have been a problem ever since I care to remember.

 

[edwin_m]

I'm not really sure what it would take to stand out. Everyone seems to be saying this like there's some kind of "no prime minister at all" option. Somebody has got to be in charge, and it's ridiculous to suggest that even the Tory party couldn't field somebody better than Rishi. I mean the Tory party wouldn't pick somebody better - they'd head unerringly for mad Liz 2 - but there clearly are Tories who are Tories who are less unqualified for the job than Sunak

Can you suggest some names? Bonus points if they'd have a realistic chance of winning a leadership election... And if they are anyone the general public has actually heard of...

 

[takno]

Can you suggest some names? Bonus points if they'd have a realistic chance of winning a leadership election... And if they are anyone the general public has actually heard of...

In the Tory party? No. Even if I could be bothered to drudge through their backbenches I'd really prefer to just the whole thing implode